You're Being Lied to About Electric Cars

[easyrider]

Statements like that make it sound worse than it is. Most of the price drops were historically due to falling new car prices, which directly impact used car prices of course. We saw some of that with our 2023 MY LR trade-in, since we paid 60k for that vehicle alone (without FSD), with just one added option (an upgraded wheel/tire package). That same vehicle starts at $48k today. The challenge with statements like three times faster, is they never provide the rate of depreciation upon which that statement is based. If its 1%, then it's 3% for example.

I think I said this previously, but my recommendation is to find a 2023+ Model Y with AI4 FSD computer. 2023 models have the upgraded comfort suspension, the Ryzen CPU processor as opposed to the Intel processor (important for various software features), and a few other enhancements from a minor refresh in Q1 2023. AI4 came long in the second half of 2023 calendar year. If you could care less about FSD then that's not important, but word to the wise, I've had so many people who said that, and then they actually experience it, and want it, and come to find out that their HW3 computer doesn't run the current FSD versions, and while definitely worthwhile, it's not as good as AI4 FSD equipped vehicles, and the delta is likely to increase over time, not decrease.

I'm going with the prices I see at auctions, craigslist and car resale sites like car gurus and the Tesla prices have been taking a beating. Tesla isn't the only brand taking a beating but it is the EV brand I'm paying attention to. It might be that the depreciation doesn't factor in the incentives but only focuses on the MSRP meaning the $50,000 Tesla new may have actually had a cost of $40,000 if Municipal and Federal incentives were included.

I've actually seen a few 2021 Tesla Model Y's with under 50,000 miles priced below $22,000. I think the incentive is $2500 and no sales tax so it would come in under $20,000. My thought is Tesla's do bottom out on the depreciation at a certain point and $20,000 might be close.

Bill

 

[HitchHiker71]

I'm going with the prices I see at auctions, craigslist and car resale sites like car gurus and the Tesla prices have been taking a beating. Tesla isn't the only brand taking a beating but it is the EV brand I'm paying attention to. It might be that the depreciation doesn't factor in the incentives but only focuses on the MSRP meaning the $50,000 Tesla new may have actually had a cost of $40,000 if Municipal and Federal incentives were included.

I've actually seen a few 2021 Tesla Model Y's with under 50,000 miles priced below $22,000. I think the incentive is $2500 and no sales tax so it would come in under $20,000. My thought is Tesla's do bottom out on the depreciation at a certain point and $20,000 might be close.

Bill

It’s certainly possible that the tax incentives and rebates may skew prices. I’ve not read anything or performed any due diligence on this specific topic just yet.

Keep in mind for any EV under $25k there’s also a $4000 federal tax credit still in place, if you qualify for it of course. That’s on top of your state incentives.


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[easyrider]

Is the aluminum oxide battery a real thing for Tesla ? I keep seeing what I think are rumours, that it's going to be in the model 2.

Bill

 

[HitchHiker71]

Is the aluminum oxide battery a real thing for Tesla ? I keep seeing what I think are rumours, that it's going to be in the model 2.

Bill

Not that I am aware of. Tesla’s only recent battery announcement was for a new LFP plant that is under construction using prior generation CATL equipment for grid storage only, which will be prismatic cells (not cylindrical for use in vehicles). I’ve seen nothing about Aluminum-Ion cells from any reputable source outside of rumors that have been debunked for the most part. Tesla remains committed to increasing its 4680 battery cell manufacturing for its own vehicles, though with all of the federal EV credits set to expire after 9/30/2025 from the OBBB, I’d expect Tesla to again start using battery cells and/or packs from non-US sources in addition to its own batteries and existing suppliers.

 

[emeryjre]

There are plenty of stories about Elon and Aluminum Oxide Batteries
Very little real information in the storied
Mostly rehashes of the same story
No mention of electrical density per Kg
A key measurement in EV batteries
I would guess the stories are just that
Stories

 

[HitchHiker71]

There are plenty of stories about Elon and Aluminum Oxide Batteries
Very little real information in the storied
Mostly rehashes of the same story
No mention of electrical density per Kg
A key measurement in EV batteries
I would guess the stories are just that
Stories

Yep plenty of made up rumors and such. I don’t think most folks have any real appreciation for the complexity of mass production for battery cells and packs. There are literally tons of battery technologies that work well in a lab environment, but less than 1% of them can scale at all or can be scaled cost effectively or are otherwise reliable enough in a real world environment over the long term for a BEV. This is why we see very gradual and iterative advances in this arena.


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[emeryjre]

I have learned a while back about the difference between hype and fact
Hydrogen was the first to hook me with hype
Leased a Toyota Mirai several years after they were introduced
Made Toyota take it back, cancel the lease, and return all monies
There was no hydrogen to fuel the car
Learned all about the costs of carbon free hydrogen production
It is not an inexpensive way to drive around carbon free

 

[emeryjre]

With the continuing increase in the number of self-driving vehicles
One of these days
There will be a country song about how my truck left me

 

[HitchHiker71]

With the continuing increase in the number of self-driving vehicles
One of these days
There will be a country song about how my truck left me

What's that joke say about playing a country song backwards?

You get your girl back...
You get your house back...
You get your truck back...

 

[easyrider]

Is it a rumour that Tesla is planning on using the lithium iron phosphate battery in the new M2 ? I'm kind of thinking it's a downgrade from the current battery.

Bill

 

[emeryjre]

Is it a rumour that Tesla is planning on using the lithium iron phosphate battery in the new M2 ? I'm kind of thinking it's a downgrade from the current battery.

Bill

Tesla has been using LFP batteries in various models for a while
The deal is that Tesla will be manufacturing the batteries at their facility in Nevada
No longer relying on Chinese to supply them

Tesla New LFP Battery Factory and the Push for Cost Reduction

Beneath the sleek metal skin of every Tesla lies its heart: the battery pack. This single component is the most critical and expensive part of any electric vehicle, dictating its range, performance, and, most importantly, its price. For years, Tesla has been a leader in battery technology, but...

www.teslaacessories.com

 

[HitchHiker71]

Is it a rumour that Tesla is planning on using the lithium iron phosphate battery in the new M2 ? I'm kind of thinking it's a downgrade from the current battery.

Bill

The M2 itself is just a rumor - there is no M2 officially - nor has Tesla indicated there will be. The official guidance in the investors slide deck is as follows:

It is worth nothing that a few weeks ago Musk fired the Head of vehicle production here in the US - and promoted the Head of Production in China to a global role. Speculation indicates this is because the US resource did not meet the above official guidance timelines for new vehicles starting production in H1 2025. The rumors are that the phrasing of "these vehicles....will be produced on the same manufacturing lines as our current vehicle lineup" means that we're really just talking about cheaper versions of the existing M3/MY models. There's been some recent rumors of slightly smaller versions of the M3/MY with blurry photos and such, but they are just rumors right now, nothing substantiated. An entirely new M2 model using an entirely different frame, would require a new manufacturing line in comparison, hence the reason I'm saying, that's not happening any time soon, especially when the official guidance also clearly states "This should help us to fully utilize our current expected maximum capacity of close to three million vehicles, enabling more than 60% growth over 2024 production before investing in new manufacturing lines." The only new manufacturing line I'm actually aware of, using an entirely new and much more efficient production methodology which Tesla affectionately calls their Unboxed methodology, is for the Cybercab only, which is soley for robotaxi use and won't have pedals or any steering wheel for human use.

 

[HitchHiker71]

Tesla has been using LFP batteries in various models for a while
The deal is that Tesla will be manufacturing the batteries at their facility in Nevada
No longer relying on Chinese to supply them

Tesla New LFP Battery Factory and the Push for Cost Reduction

Beneath the sleek metal skin of every Tesla lies its heart: the battery pack. This single component is the most critical and expensive part of any electric vehicle, dictating its range, performance, and, most importantly, its price. For years, Tesla has been a leader in battery technology, but...

www.teslaacessories.com

Tesla stopped using LFP packs here in the US in 2024 due to the IRA requirements. They still use LFP packs in China and the EU cars though. The LFP batteries being manufactured in Nevada are only for commercial grid use though, they are prismatic battery packs using CATL manufacturing equipment that Tesla brought over from China for this new plant. That article is, to put it mildly, getting way ahead of itself given there are zero indications of any plans to produce vehicle battery cells or packs at that facility. Anything is possible long term, but the article leads people believe the prismatic grid batteries are somehow going to be used for vehicles, when even Tesla has publicly indicated this was not the intent for this plant. There are no near term plans to start manufacturing cylindrical LFP batteries at this plant for any vehicles is what I'm saying. There are rumors of a 4680 LFP based pack though, being worked on in Fremont where their skunkworks exists that created the Tesla 4680 batteries and packs in the first place.

Loading…

x.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1940058787391459505

 

[emeryjre]

Tesla stopped using LFP packs here in the US in 2024 due to the IRA requirements. They still use LFP packs in China and the EU cars though. The LFP batteries being manufactured in Nevada are only for commercial grid use though, they are prismatic battery packs using CATL manufacturing equipment that Tesla brought over from China for this new plant. That article is, to put it mildly, getting way ahead of itself given there are zero indications of any plans to produce vehicle battery cells or packs at that facility. Anything is possible long term, but the article leads people believe the prismatic grid batteries are somehow going to be used for vehicles, when even Tesla has publicly indicated this was not the intent for this plant. There are no near term plans to start manufacturing cylindrical LFP batteries at this plant for any vehicles is what I'm saying. There are rumors of a 4680 LFP based pack though, being worked on in Fremont where their skunkworks exists that created the Tesla 4680 batteries and packs in the first place.

Loading…

x.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1940058787391459505

Obviously I got it wrong
So hard to keep up with the details
And I know the devil is in the details
Thanks for keeping us on the rails

 

[HitchHiker71]

Obviously I got it wrong
So hard to keep up with the details
And I know the devil is in the details
Thanks for keeping us on the rails

Believe me, I'd rather your article be right about LFP vehicle packs, that would be awesome IMHO, but unfortunately unless Tesla is really holding out on a hidden bonus from that plant, which is at least feasible, we're not going to see LFP vehicle packs coming out of the Sparks NV plant any time soon. There's a debate online about the fact that the vast majority of the IRA incentives going away, including the $7500 federal tax credit that formed the limitations for on-shore battery materials and assembly being canceled altogether, may mean Tesla or any other manufacturer is free to source packs from anywhere really. The only variable now in play, is the tariffs, which seems to be a moving target as it relates to whether we'll see Tesla start bringing in CATL LFP packs from China for less expensive mid-range M3/MY models like they were doing from 2020-2024 timeframe. Only time will tell, your guess is as good as mine really.

 

[Ken555]

I saw an ad yesterday for a 2025 VW i.4 Pro for a lease at $0 down, $129/mth for 24 months, $699 acquisition fee, $85 doc fee, plus sales tax, etc. Includes 7,500 miles per year, which is obviously not for everyone. But still… seems to be a great offer. Too bad I don't want one of these.

 

[HitchHiker71]

I saw an ad yesterday for a 2025 VW i.4 Pro for a lease at $0 down, $129/mth for 24 months, $699 acquisition fee, $85 doc fee, plus sales tax, etc. Includes 7,500 miles per year, which is obviously not for everyone. But still… seems to be a great offer. Too bad I don't want one of these.

Yeah I’ve seen some killer lease deals recently on EVs. I just cannot justify getting rid of my 2018 RAM 1500 truck with only 64k miles on it. It’s in good shape and last year apparently I only put 3400 miles on it puttering around town every few days, and it’s nice having a very utilitarian vehicle at times.

A low mileage lease like this would actually work well for me though, and $129/month is a nuisance payment overall, but when I add in the insurance, probably still not worth it.


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[youppi]

I saw an ad yesterday for a 2025 VW i.4 Pro for a lease at $0 down, $129/mth for 24 months, $699 acquisition fee, $85 doc fee, plus sales tax, etc. Includes 7,500 miles per year, which is obviously not for everyone. But still… seems to be a great offer. Too bad I don't want one of these.

Even if the VW ID.4 would be the best bang for the buck of all EV, I don't think I would buy this EV because one of the feature I like the most when I drive my Bolt EUV in town is the one pedal driving and the VW ID.4 doesn't have it.

 

[easyrider]

Even if the VW ID.4 would be the best bang for the buck of all EV, I don't think I would buy this EV because one of the feature I like the most when I drive my Bolt EUV in town is the one pedal driving and the VW ID.4 doesn't have it.

I'm not sure I would notice the one pedal driving because I've never had it. The EV's we test drove had it but I don't think I used it. Out of habit I use the brake pedal.

Bill

 

[HitchHiker71]

I'm not sure I would notice the one pedal driving because I've never had it. The EV's we test drove had it but I don't think I used it. Out of habit I use the brake pedal.

Bill

This is hands down one of the best features on any EV. It recovers otherwise wasted energy back into the battery pack. It also never uses the resistance braking system. On most Tesla vehicles you cannot disable regenerative braking, and on the newer Tesla vehicles, even when you use the brake pedal, it’s actually still using the regenerative braking and will only use resistance braking when needed. Many Tesla vehicles that have very high mileage are still on the original rotors and pads due to automatic regenerative braking since the resistance braking system is hardly ever used.


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[Beefnot]

I am all in on EVs, difficult to see myself going back to purchasing an internal combustion engine vehicle again. I took my 10-year old Hyundai Santa Fe to the shop last year for service, and they gave me a hybrid Sonata loaner for a few days. I was so impressed by the silence and smoothness upon ignition and initial driving that I started poking around and within a couple of weeks I had a 2020 Hyundai Ioniq EV in my garage. Based on our driving habits, range anxiety was not really a thing for us, even with the 170 mile range. We don't even have a level 2 charger, just the standard level 1 super slow charger. I still have the Santa Fe for family trips.

I just bought a certified pre-owned 2023 Mercedes EQE 500 sedan, black on black, at a 60%+ discount off what it retailed for. With the manufacturer warranty and CPO warranty, I'm covered through 2028. I even stumbled upon the discovery that I am able to get the remainder of the previous owner's unlimited free 30 min charging cycles at Electrify America, so I have that through I think October. The level of luxury and performance in this vehicle is phenomenal.

So, now two EVs in the household and 1 ICE SUV. However, I'm considering ditching the Santa Fe next year in favor of an EV SUV. Given the rapid depreciation of EVs, I'm salivating at the prospect of picking up a gently used Mercedes EQE/S for the price of a Camry.

 

[buzglyd]

The rapid depreciation just caused me to buy a 2024 loaded AWD Tesla Model 3. DW driving is pretty much daily errand running so this will be perfect. We’ll mix in an occasional Scottsdale run. My old truck and new Corvette will remain in the fleet.

 

[DrQ]

Tesla vehicles, even when you use the brake pedal, it’s actually still using the regenerative braking and will only use resistance braking when needed.

I suspect that is how the VW system works. The Bolt "One pedal drive" mode is more aggressive as when you take your foot off the accelerator, it engages regenerative braking. There is also a lever on the steering wheel which provides an aggressive regenerative braking action. You can use the regenerative brake lever(button) in either "Normal" or "One Pedal Driving" mode. The goal was to allow the Bolt EV to drive totally like an ICE for the Nervous Nelly's that freak out over "EV tech". It is also 2017 (designed ~2015) era tech, which is a bit dated now.

 

[easyrider]

The rapid depreciation just caused me to buy a 2024 loaded AWD Tesla Model 3. DW driving is pretty much daily errand running so this will be perfect. We’ll mix in an occasional Scottsdale run. My old truck and new Corvette will remain in the fleet.

The depreciation of used ev's, especially Tesla's, has us really considering buying one. Our problem is there isn't anywhere nearby to take a Tesla for repair. Supposedly, VW and Chevy dealers can work on their ev's but neither have a full time EV mechanic is what I heard.

I'm also not convinced that EV's are going to be as relevant as ice manufacturers and oil companies are relieved from Federal restrictions.

For us, A Toyota hybrid makes sense because our Toyota dealer works on these but because it's a Toyota, they aren't really depreciating much.

Bill

 

[DrQ]

Supposedly, VW and Chevy dealers can work on their ev's but neither have a full time EV mechanic is what I heard.

What does this mean?

To sell EVs, a Chevrolet Dealership must have:

• The equipment to service the model of EV
• Mechanics who are trained to service EVs

These mechanics don't service EVs "full time" because there isn't the demand, but they work "full time" on other vehicles. I have NEVER had to wait to have them "call in" an EV "specialist". I have had to wait because there is a backlog for ALL vehicles in the shop.

Also, in 2022, GM has been quietly becoming a second source of Tesla qualified repairs.