You're Being Lied to About Electric Cars

[HitchHiker71]

It mean China isn't liking Tesla anymore. It seems Canada doesn't like Tesla and there is plenty of the same feelings here. Would this be considered fud ?

Bill

Not so much FUD as inaccurate reporting due to the factory turnover combined with questionable motives from the legacy mainstream media.

The MY ramp in China is still taking place. Here in the US for example, existing MY ramped down and is no longer available for sale as of late last week - and as of today - there are literally zero MYs in inventory within a 200 mile radius of where I live, and this is the case for most other areas as well, and the only MY that anyone can order is the topline Juniper MY Launch Edition for $60k right now, which is by design since they are still ramping up the US factories for the new MY production - the ramp process typically takes 3-6 months to get up to maximum production capacity, during which production falls and deliveries fall. Likely sometime soon, the Launch Edition will stop selling and we will see the normal models become available for order.

Unfortunately, a lot of the FUD in the legacy mainstream media is trying to pitch a narrative that Tesla is in real trouble - when the fact is that there are literally hundreds of thousands of new MY orders already in queue in China, and backlogs here in the US and in the EU, but those orders aren't counted until they are actually produced and delivered. It's simply pent-up demand due to production ramp. I'm not saying that Tesla sales aren't down overall - they are - but it's not nearly what the MSM wants everyone to believe. When the CEO of Tesla also owns the largest online news app in the world (X), which is a direct competitor to their cash cow legacy media empires, is it any wonder the narratives the MSM pitches that don't paint an accurate picture? People need to look deeper and see what the men behind the curtain are actually doing (ala legacy MSM).

 

[easyrider]

People need to look deeper and see what the men behind the curtain are actually doing (ala legacy MSM).

Many are too polarized to do anything other than watch the talking heads that they like. Nothing's going to change this.

Bill

 

[Brett]

Many are too polarized to do anything other than watch the talking heads that they like. Nothing's going to change this.

Bill

Imagine if Chinese car manufacturers were allowed to sell cars in the US ~~ 100% tariffs ! ~~ - something might change

.

 

[emeryjre]

Some figures on the sales of Tesla Cyber Trucks for the last 14 months

‘Over 1 Million’ People Wanted a Cybertruck. Where Are They?

“Demand is off the charts!” Elon Musk crowed at the end of 2023, citing more than a million reservations for Tesla's polarizing polygonic pickup—so why has it still sold less than 50,000?

www.wired.com

 

[HitchHiker71]

Some figures on the sales of Tesla Cyber Trucks for the last 14 months

‘Over 1 Million’ People Wanted a Cybertruck. Where Are They?

“Demand is off the charts!” Elon Musk crowed at the end of 2023, citing more than a million reservations for Tesla's polarizing polygonic pickup—so why has it still sold less than 50,000?

www.wired.com

Still the best selling EV pickup in the US - from the outset. That's pretty impressive for such a polarizing design. It has outsold the F150L, Rivian R1T, Silverado EV, Sierra EV, etc. I had a day zero reservation, I actually still have it, but like many, the initial announced pricing back in 2019 was quite a bit off from the debut pricing, on average about 20-30k higher for each model. The Cyberbeast was initially estimated to cost $70k, the AWD around $50k and the single motor - or fleet model - around $40k. The prices today are $100k for the Cyberbeast, $80k for the AWD, and the single motor variant has yet to be released - but figure that pricing will be $60-65k best guess. Granted, prices in 2019 were much lower across the board, but as anyone in marketing knows, first impressions are important, and many who had reservations either canceled, or are holding out for price decreases as production ramps - myself included - though I'm not sold on the design either. Will CT demand continue to ramp up over the next year or so? Only time will tell, we shall see. I think many folks are also wising up to steeper EV price depreciation on lightly used models, and on a more expensive vehicle like a CT, many reservation holders are probably just going to hold out and simply buy a pre-owned model in a couple of years. That's likely what I would do myself given a $80k CT will likely be had for $40-50k 2-3 years from now, and without that many miles on the odo.

There are also some issues with battery constraints with the 4680s that are being used for the CT - which is Tesla's internally designed and produced battery packs - that are currently only being used in the CT. The 4680 ramp is still ahead of the CT ramp to date, but not by much. Point being, they cannot ramp the CT production volume faster than the 4680 battery pack production volume. The 4680 is also likely to be used with the upcoming Semi and Cybercab models - which will both be ramping in 2026 timeframe - hence the constraints issue. The Semi factory in Nevada should be complete later this year. The Cybercab will initially be built in GigaAustin starting H2 2025.

 

[easyrider]

Imagine if Chinese car manufacturers were allowed to sell cars in the US ~~ 100% tariffs ! ~~ - something might change

We would probably all be speaking Chinese by then, lol. Nǐ xǐhuān wǒ de chē ma Brett ?

Bill

 

[easyrider]

Still the best selling EV pickup in the US - from the outset.

But definitely not even close to being the best selling pick up overall.

Bill

 

[Brett]

We would probably all be speaking Chinese by then, lol. Nǐ xǐhuān wǒ de chē ma Brett ?

Bill

Or speaking English - - and buying ............ China


" Approximately 300-400 million people in China are actively learning English, a number nearly equaling native English speakers worldwide. Simply put, English language education is booming in China."

 

[easyrider]

" Approximately 300-400 million people in China are actively learning English, a number nearly equaling native English speakers worldwide. Simply put, English language education is booming in China."

I didn't know this. Maybe a trip to somewhere warm in South East China might be an option. I could rent a Chinese EV, lol.

Bill

 

[HitchHiker71]

But definitely not even close to being the best selling pick up overall.

Bill

No argument here - for those who use pickups to tow and haul a lot especially over longer distances, there's no good EV solution out there at present when compared to diesel pickups that can (literally) go the distance. I'd estimate we're going to need to see a breakthrough on energy density for batteries before this use case for EV towing vehicles becomes comparable to existing towing rigs. For full-on tractor trailers/rigs, the Tesla Semi LR is actually cheaper on a per mile basis than any comparable diesel rig, delivering 500 miles of range at the 80k lb maximum payload. Tesla is ramping up a commercial Semi production starting later this year, which will disrupt the trucking industry quite a bit - with two models initially - a 350 mile model (uses two 300kw packs) - and a long range 500 mile model (uses three 300kw packs).

 

[emeryjre]

No argument here - for those who use pickups to tow and haul a lot especially over longer distances, there's no good EV solution out there at present when compared to diesel pickups that can (literally) go the distance. I'd estimate we're going to need to see a breakthrough on energy density for batteries before this use case for EV towing vehicles becomes comparable to existing towing rigs. For full-on tractor trailers/rigs, the Tesla Semi LR is actually cheaper on a per mile basis than any comparable diesel rig, delivering 500 miles of range at the 80k lb maximum payload. Tesla is ramping up a commercial Semi production starting later this year, which will disrupt the trucking industry quite a bit - with two models initially - a 350 mile model (uses two 300kw packs) - and a long range 500 mile model (uses three 300kw packs).

Just curious what cost of electricity per KW is used to calculate the cost being cheaper than diesel
I have not kept up with the Tesla Semi development and calculated cost per mile over the life of the unit
What is the initial cost of the unit projected to be

 

[HitchHiker71]

Just curious what cost of electricity per KW is used to calculate the cost being cheaper than diesel
I have not kept up with the Tesla Semi development and calculated cost per mile over the life of the unit
What is the initial cost of the unit projected to be

At current diesel prices it's about 33-50% of the cost vs diesel (depends on the state in which you refuel). Costs vary in other words - both for electricity and diesel, depending on location (and they can vary quite a bit).

https://www.tesla.com/semi

The projected unit cost is $150k for the standard range model (300 miles at maximum payload), and $180k for the long range model (500 miles at maximum payload), but pricing is always subject to change. Several vendors have been working closely with Tesla on fleet testing, including Costco, Sysco, US Foods, PepsiCo, DHL, and Walmart among others. There are several articles and videos on the testing that has been undertaken over the past couple of years. Here's one article from DHLs testing: https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-semi-efficiency-3000-mile-dhl/

Couple of articles from Pepsi's testing:

https://insideevs.com/news/686339/pepsico-tesla-semi-545-mile-range-test/

https://insideevs.com/news/689084/tesla-semi-1000-mile-drive-single-day/

DHL, in a test in late 2024, saw 1.72kw/mile with a 75k lb payload (near the maximum payload of 80k), along one of their typical routes in Cali. That's incredibly impressive when we consider that most of the legacy EV pickups are advertising range based upon 2kw/mile unloaded for example - when heavy towing is taken into account - it's typically 1kw/mile with the current EV pickups. The motors being used in the Semi are nextgen motors that are extremely efficient and extremely reliable - and all but one motor can be disengaged once up to speed on a level surface to keep speed - which enhances efficiency of course. The real cost savings comes over the long term of course - given commercial charging is less expensive than diesel in almost all cases. The other big benefit is that FSD is also being adapted for the Semi - that means the vehicle will drive itself - and when FSD goes unsupervised - that eliminates the requirement to have a driver in the cab entirely. Autonomous commercial transport.

 

[emeryjre]

Who is paying for the electrical charging stations
I presume they will have significant electrical needs at a charging station
This may require infrastructure upgrades to the electrical distribution system along the major highway systems
I think of highway 15

 

[HitchHiker71]

Who is paying for the electrical charging stations
I presume they will have significant electrical needs at a charging station
This may require infrastructure upgrades to the electrical distribution system along the major highway systems
I think of highway 15

Tesla has been rolling out public Megacharger 1mw v4 style cabinets for semi charging in certain areas. These same chargers are also being installed at commercial locations - so companies that utilize heavy transport like Pepsi and DHL have their own Semi charging stations onsite since a good portion of the heavy transport occurs between their own plants and distribution locations. Similar to how 75-80% of residential charging for consumer EVs occurs at home, the majority of commercial Semi charging will occur onsite at company owned locations. Since a Semi typically takes about an hour to unload their payload - that same hour is used to charge back up to 80%. The primary use case for the Semi is not long haul trucking in other words, the standard model is for local/regional deliveries and the long range model is meant for regional uses generally under 500 miles per leg. Some long haul testing has been done as well, and the Semi has done well driving over 1000 miles daily even in these cases, but that is not the primary use case.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Ken555]

Elon’s Edsel: Tesla Cybertruck Is The Auto Industry’s Biggest Flop In Decades

Elon Musk’s polygonal pickup is a polarizing sales flop that's missed the billionaire’s volume goal by a staggering 84%. And there’s no sign that things are improving.

Musk predicted that Cybertruck might see 250,000 annual sales. Tesla sold just under 40,000 in 2024, its first full year. There’s no sign that volume is rising this year, with sales trending lower in January and February, according to Cox Automotive.

Elon Musk’s Epic Cybertruck Fail

Elon Musk’s polygonal pickup is a polarizing sales flop that's missed the billionaire’s volume goal by a staggering 84%. And there’s no sign that things are improving.

www.forbes.com

 

[geist1223]

Great News.

 

[HitchHiker71]

Elon’s Edsel: Tesla Cybertruck Is The Auto Industry’s Biggest Flop In Decades

Elon Musk’s polygonal pickup is a polarizing sales flop that's missed the billionaire’s volume goal by a staggering 84%. And there’s no sign that things are improving.

Musk predicted that Cybertruck might see 250,000 annual sales. Tesla sold just under 40,000 in 2024, its first full year. There’s no sign that volume is rising this year, with sales trending lower in January and February, according to Cox Automotive.

Elon Musk’s Epic Cybertruck Fail

Elon Musk’s polygonal pickup is a polarizing sales flop that's missed the billionaire’s volume goal by a staggering 84%. And there’s no sign that things are improving.

www.forbes.com

Production ramp has been slower than expected due to various production ramping issues on the lines - including the 4680 battery ramp itself - and the fact that the CT is a difficult vehicle to build due to its unique design. That said, I've also seen chatter that Tesla is sitting on up to $200mm in CT inventory due to slower than expected sales - if we assume an average selling price of $90k - that's 2222 units.

It's hard to discern the exact reasons, given the political associations ongoing with Tesla and the fact that the CT is so glaringly and easily associated with Tesla given its polarizing design to begin with, so this model seems to be getting most of the negative attention and is an easy target. Someone asked me the other day if I'd buy a CT if it were significantly less expensive - and my answer was that I wouldn't touch one right now given the sensitivity factors. We were down in the Georgetown area (DC suburb) over last weekend. We were staying at Wyndham Old Town Alexandria. We were walking down toward the river area to try out a new restaurant, and a CT drove by us near a corner, and I watched two people across the street give the middle finger to the driver (CT had NJ tags). That's the kind of attention I just have zero interest in dealing with, even as a Tesla fan. I also think that the design itself isn't going to appeal to the majority of traditional pickup buyers. I personally have always assumed that the sales numbers were never going to reach the vaunted predictions by Musk. Musk also freely stated on more than one occasion that they were going to build the CT even if it was a flop.

 

[Ken555]

It's hard to discern the exact reasons, given the political associations ongoing with Tesla and the fact that the CT is so glaringly and easily associated with Tesla given its polarizing design to begin with, so this model seems to be getting most of the negative attention and is an easy target. Someone asked me the other day if I'd buy a CT if it were significantly less expensive - and my answer was that I wouldn't touch one right now given the sensitivity factors. We were down in the Georgetown area (DC suburb) over last weekend. We were staying at Wyndham Old Town Alexandria. We were walking down toward the river area to try out a new restaurant, and a CT drove by us near a corner, and I watched two people across the street give the middle finger to the driver (CT had NJ tags). That's the kind of attention I just have zero interest in dealing with, even as a Tesla fan. I also think that the design itself isn't going to appeal to the majority of traditional pickup buyers. I personally have always assumed that the sales numbers were never going to reach the vaunted predictions by Musk. Musk also freely stated on more than one occasion that they were going to build the CT even if it was a flop.

I agree that the CT is a political target these days, but I think that’s not to blame for the failure to sell as well as EM anticipated in its early days. And it doesn't matter that he said he'd do it anyway…this is an indictment on his business and leadership ability more than anything, in my opinion, from his failure to obtain objective consensus on product design to pursuing a product that has few buyers.

Let us just hope he does better with his robots.

 

[easyrider]

I agree that the CT is a political target these days, but I think that’s not to blame for the failure to sell as well as EM anticipated in its early days. And it doesn't matter that he said he'd do it anyway…this is an indictment on his business and leadership ability more than anything, in my opinion, from his failure to obtain objective consensus on product design to pursuing a product that has few buyers.

Let us just hope he does better with his robots.

The Cyber Truck has always looked like an industrial appliance to me. I've never been a fan of the look. I've seen them painted in various ways and it's still not appealing to me. I do like the look of the new Chevy EV Silverado. Probably because we have a pre-17 Ridgeline, lol.

I'm not sure I like the idea of humanoid looking autonomous robots but if I have to have one I hope it looks better than the Cybertruck,lol.

Bill

 

[HitchHiker71]

I agree that the CT is a political target these days, but I think that’s not to blame for the failure to sell as well as EM anticipated in its early days. And it doesn't matter that he said he'd do it anyway…this is an indictment on his business and leadership ability more than anything, in my opinion, from his failure to obtain objective consensus on product design to pursuing a product that has few buyers.

Let us just hope he does better with his robots.

My point is, if Tesla fans like me feel that way, then so do many other fans, and those who aren't fans are even more likely to just walk away from even considering the CT, so I think you are underestimating just how much that matters at present. That said, I agree that there are many other factors, not the least of which is that the 250k number was back when the initial entry level model price was around $40k, it's $80k at present, so the vast majority of "work truck" buyers aren't even going to consider an $80k truck. My overall point was that the model that would generate the most sales- and by far had the most preorders - isn't even available yet. At $80k, the CT is selling in similar volumes as the MX and MS models - because they are also up in the $80k+ range. We are never going to see any model with an average selling price over $80k sell hundreds of thousands of units. Until we see the RWD LR model released around $60-65k range, we won't really know what volume to expect. Even then, $60-65k isn't $40k. The 250k number was back when these units were going to cost $40k/$50k/$70k - and we are a far cry from those 2019 estimated prices now. We are now at $65k/$80k/$100. Huge price increases in other words.

Last time I checked, the MY was actually the best selling car in the world in 2023 and 2024. Maybe again in 2025, though I doubt it given the political fallout globally- even with the recent M3 and MY refreshes. Let's see what "new" models are coming later this year as well. The commercial energy business is booming, and the robots are coming, and that's where the real money is. We also have Cybercab coming starting in June (so they say), lots of innovation coming to market.

 

[HitchHiker71]

The Cyber Truck has always looked like an industrial appliance to me. I've never been a fan of the look. I've seen them painted in various ways and it's still not appealing to me.

You've seen CT PPF wraps - not paint. No CTs are painted. PPF wraps are how people change the looks of their vehicles these days - while protecting the original paint.

I do like the look of the new Chevy EV Silverado. Probably because we have a pre-17 Ridgeline, lol.

I like the look of the SEV RST model - but am not going to spend $105k on a pickup. Same with the Sierra EV. There are less expensive models coming in the near future, but those are still in the mid 60s and are not as well equipped obviously.

I'm not sure I like the idea of humanoid looking autonomous robots but if I have to have one I hope it looks better than the Cybertruck,lol.

Bill

The robots are coming, and there's no stopping it. Likely within the next 20 years, humans working will become optional thanks to embodied AI.

 

[Ken555]

My point is, if Tesla fans like me feel that way, then so do many other fans, and those who aren't fans are even more likely to just walk away from even considering the CT, so I think you are underestimating just how much that matters at present. That said, I agree that there are many other factors […]

Even though I didn't comment on it earlier, I acknowlege and believe EM has pissed off many of his fans and this is very bad for near term sales.

As we discussed privafely last year, you know I was considering buying a Tesla. I have many family and friends who own one (or two!), and I see many every day (including many CTs). I highly doubt I would buy one now (especially after the last two days of the market tanking).

 

[Chrispee]

In my view EM hasn't really been playing chess here. His public role is also making it much harder to feel comfortable putting one of his future robots in the house. I will say that my Model S is the best car I've ever owned to date.

 

[HitchHiker71]

In my view EM hasn't really been playing chess here. His public role is also making it much harder to feel comfortable putting one of his future robots in the house. I will say that my Model S is the best car I've ever owned to date.

Fortunately, the media and most Americans have very short memories. A few years from now this will all have died down and no one will care, best guess.

 

[HitchHiker71]

Even though I didn't comment on it earlier, I acknowlege and believe EM has pissed off many of his fans and this is very bad for near term sales.

As we discussed privafely last year, you know I was considering buying a Tesla. I have many family and friends who own one (or two!), and I see many every day (including many CTs). I highly doubt I would buy one now (especially after the last two days of the market tanking).

I'd still buy a M3 or a MY today, or any of the upcoming "normal" models. The CT is taking the brunt of the abuse so to speak. I'm also unwilling to give up FSD, as it has become amazingly good the past year or so now. No other vehicle on the road here in the US is even remotely close to FSD IME, and this is the worst it's ever going to be, it's only going to get better. I care more about the safety of the vehicle and those within it, my family members, and Tesla's are the safest vehicles on the road today IMHO. Just my two cents of course.