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What if this expert is right? (CV-19 immunization)

geekette

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I guess his position in favor of vaccines made me take note when he said "it may not happen" -- all others seem to say "when we have it". I'm certainly not one who will rush to get vaccinated -- and my biggest concern would be to be told I must.
Uh, I disagree. I have heard many say IF. It has been clear to me for many weeks that vax is a maybe, not a guarantee, not easy. And definitely not soon.

Nobody can tell you that you MUST be vaxxed. Doesn't happen for other vacs here. I can't see anyone breaking down your door and jabbing you with a needle. Only on tv.

There could be consequences to not being vaxxed, my big guess would be international travel. Just A Guess. Folks at my last job that refused flu shot could be terminated. Minor consequence, imo (depends on how easy it is for one to replace a job). I think you can go along without vax until such time as it is available and you decide you want it, or you are prohibited from doing or going somewhere you want without it.
 

geekette

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I'm frustrated that there does not seem to be agreement as to whether the presence of antibodies will prevent a re-occurrence. It would be nice to know that the people who were exposed and never had any symptoms can relax a little.
I am wondering if those answers will come in the fall? I don't know a lot about mutations, but think that could impact re-occurrence. Like maybe you got the China version first, but the Europe version lays you out??

We get a flu shot every year because things change, different strains are more prevalent this year or that. I wonder if there will be some obvious changes between USA Spring version and USA Fall?? Further, is that dependent on how long this wave goes?

more questions than answers. and we don't know for how long that will be, either! ugh!! (drink)
 

Big Matt

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It's strange to me that we have discovered vaccines for some things (polio, german measles, smallpox), but not for other things (HIV, herpes). My hope is that this virus mutates into something less harmful and we are in the clear by next summer. If not, the United States will be forever changed.
 

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MrockStar

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My point in posting this... Is to ask ... What if there will be no effective vaccine? There are comments on Tug, and certainly in the news saying "we will do thus and so" WHEN there is a vaccine. What I haven't heard is a Plan B.
Plan B is not politically Correct, do what we and the rest of the world have always done: Live our lives, pray and develop Herd immunity .
 

Sea Six

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and hope it goes away, or hope the death rate becomes so low we actually accept it.
 

geekette

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It's strange to me that we have discovered vaccines for some things (polio, german measles, smallpox), but not for other things (HIV, herpes). My hope is that this virus mutates into something less harmful and we are in the clear by next summer. If not, the United States will be forever changed.
I would say that the United States is already forever changed.
 

Quilter

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I found the article very interesting. What frustrates me, though, about it and other things I‘ve read is what it doesn’t say.

He says he lives a healthy lifestyle but doesn’t elaborate on many details. Then it doesn’t say what measures he took after symptoms began before he went into the hospital. It also doesn’t go into depth about what treatment the hospital gave him.
 

rhonda

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I found the article very interesting. What frustrates me, though, about it and other things I‘ve read is what it doesn’t say.

He says he lives a healthy lifestyle but doesn’t elaborate on many details. Then it doesn’t say what measures he took after symptoms began before he went into the hospital. It also doesn’t go into depth about what treatment the hospital gave him.
If it helps any, I did respond to your similar question in another thread with what I did to fight my case. Link: #220
 

DannyTS

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Stockholm will reach 40% immunization by the end of May.

 

WinniWoman

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I said this from the beginning. They may never develop a good vaccine. Just like with SARS. So everyone can either stay inside and rot away or go out and live life despite all the risks out there- not just from COVID but from the multitude of other illnesses and accidents that are possible.
 

Big Matt

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I would say that the United States is already forever changed.
I think we will all remember this forever, but not so sure about the change part just yet. The one that I think we're the closest to is how and where we work. I do believe that we will see changes that way simply because we proved that you don't need to be physically present to do many jobs. I hope that some things like live sporting/entertainment events come back and that we can go to restaurants again.
 

geekette

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I said this from the beginning. They may never develop a good vaccine. Just like with SARS. So everyone can either stay inside and rot away or go out and live life despite all the risks out there- not just from COVID but from the multitude of other illnesses and accidents that are possible.
They did develop a vax for SARS. But it never needed to come to market because SARS ceased its spread.

I have to reject the notion that I am rotting away at home, not living life. I'm living pretty much the way I was previously. Less trips out, far less meeting up with friends, definitely no partner dancing, but I was a homebody anyhow, and my hobbies have not ceased, they've expanded. I'm not rotting, I'm continuing to grow. ymmv
 

geist1223

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We do not have a Cold Vaccine (type of mutating corona virus); reliable Flu Vaccine (type of mutating corona vaccine): Dengue fever Vaccine; etc, etc.
 

dioxide45

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I said this from the beginning. They may never develop a good vaccine. Just like with SARS. So everyone can either stay inside and rot away or go out and live life despite all the risks out there- not just from COVID but from the multitude of other illnesses and accidents that are possible.
Looking at the history of SARS, I found it odd that during the outbreak they openly planned a benefit concert in Toronto where there were 150,000 in attendance. SARS was actually more deadly than COVID, but no one had any concerns about social distancing then.
 

DannyTS

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It seems the world has lived with Covid for a lot longer than previously thought

Mobile Phone Activity From Wuhan Lab Suggests 'Possible Shutdown' In October Due To 'Hazardous Event'

 

dayooper

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This is not to the OP but a general statement: I think the term "expert" has lost its' meaning. If everyone in a profession is an expert then there are no experts.

I disagree completely. An expert is someone who has a specified education, training and experience in a specialized field. A family doctor knows how the body works, have seen first hand the effects of the virus and has experience treating the virus, but doesn’t have the research capability or specialized training the an epidemiologist would have. I have several friends that are health care professionals and trust their advice on recognizing the symptoms and how to treat it. I trust their opinion on how to contain the disease more than random posters on TUG/Facebook, business leaders, politicians and 95% of the US population. They have training on the human body, they know the physiology of the immune system and how viruses work, techniques on combating the disease on an individual level.

However, I would trust the advice of an epidemiologist on how our country contains the disease over my close, personal doctor friends. They have studied the pathology and the spread of diseases as their job. Most have a PHD in epidemiology and studied how past diseases spread and were handled, what worked and didn’t and have the best tools to know how to handle the disease. This makes them an expert.
 

CanuckTravlr

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Looking at the history of SARS, I found it odd that during the outbreak they openly planned a benefit concert in Toronto where there were 150,000 in attendance. SARS was actually more deadly than COVID, but no one had any concerns about social distancing then.

There is and was a lot of misinformation about SARS. As someone who lived in Toronto at the time (and still does), let me dispel some of the myths, including that SARS and Covid-19 are supposedly similar, so what works or doesn't work for one should work or not work for the other. Like Covid-19, SARS is spread primarily by human excretions. That is about as close as they get. That will also explain why having that concert was OK, but a similar concert in the middle of the Covid-19 pandemic is not.

As an aside, the SARS epidemic was also when I gave up and realized how much the quality of reporting at CNN had deteriorated. I finally understood that they had become all about the "visual soundbite". The first clue was after 9/11 in 2001, when they showed a close-up shot of some radical Muslims gathered "en masse" in a refugee camp in the Middle East, celebrating the fall of the twin towers. It left the impression the whole camp of several thousand were celebrating. A later video from further back and a wider field-of-vision showed they were a small, isolated group in a huge camp. They pulled the same stunt in Toronto. It caused an unjustified drop in tourism that year. They showed all these people in Toronto with masks on, as if everyone was wearing them and felt endangered and in a panic. Nothing could have been further from the truth. The only people wearing masks were those going in or out, or employees taking a "smoke break", at the 3 or 4 hospitals actually treating the SARS patients.

First and foremost, SARS was a locally limited epidemic, not a global pandemic. Second, it is more deadly, once contracted, than Covid-19, but is much harder to contract and not easily spread. It is spread only when symptomatic and requires direct and prolonged contact. Covid-19 is much more contagious and can be spread even when asymptomatic. SARS was spread primarily within hospitals when proper contact and cleaning protocols were not initially followed with respect to an infected patient. In Toronto it was restricted to a few individuals who had returned with it from S/E Asia. It was never loose in the general population. Unless I drove past one of the hospitals, I never witnessed anyone else wearing a mask. There was also NO transmission to hospital staff, unlike Covid-19.

SARS in Toronto lasted for a little over 6 months, from February to September 2003, and was primarily restricted to a few hospitals where the treatments were occurring. There were a total of 438 confirmed or suspected cases in Canada, resulting in 43 deaths, mostly in the Greater Toronto Area. As of today, there are currently just over 69,000 cases of Covid-19 in Canada, including 20,545 in the Province of Ontario. The death toll so far is 4,906 in all of Canada and 1.669 in Ontario and we are not done yet. While those rates are much lower per capita than in the USA, they are certainly much higher in total than with SARS and much more widespread, despite significantly tougher measures taken with the Covid-19 pandemic. So please let's stop using SARS as any sort of reference point. The two viruses, while related, are completely different.
 
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Old Hickory

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I disagree completely. An expert is someone who has a specified education, training and experience in a specialized field. A family doctor knows how the body works, have seen first hand the effects of the virus and has experience treating the virus, but doesn’t have the research capability or specialized training the an epidemiologist would have. I have several friends that are health care professionals and trust their advice on recognizing the symptoms and how to treat it. I trust their opinion on how to contain the disease more than random posters on TUG/Facebook, business leaders, politicians and 95% of the US population. They have training on the human body, they know the physiology of the immune system and how viruses work, techniques on combating the disease on an individual level.

However, I would trust the advice of an epidemiologist on how our country contains the disease over my close, personal doctor friends. They have studied the pathology and the spread of diseases as their job. Most have a PHD in epidemiology and studied how past diseases spread and were handled, what worked and didn’t and have the best tools to know how to handle the disease. This makes them an expert.

I don't think you understood my point. I was not comparing professionals to random people on Facebook or TUGBBS for that matter.

If everyone in a profession (who has a specified education, training and experience in a specialized field) is an expert then we would not need (to ever need) a second opinion. But we all know that is not true. Tort lawyers agree with me.
 

WVBaker

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So often, experts posses more data than judgment which is why, for every expert there is an equal and opposite expert. ;)
 

dayooper

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I don't think you understood my point. I was not comparing professionals to random people on Facebook or TUGBBS for that matter.

If everyone in a profession (who has a specified education, training and experience in a specialized field) is an expert then we would not need (to ever need) a second opinion. But we all know that is not true. Tort lawyers agree with me.

I completely understood your point. Not all experts view things the same way. You always need a second opinion and should always look at options. If you don’t, you are not doing whatever you are looking at justice. Not every expert always has the same advice and, believe it or not, there are usually different ways to solve the same problem. Different experts may have differing ideas/solutions. When almost every expert in the field suggests the same thing, it’s something I take notice of.

My point is there are varying degrees of expertise, even within the field of epidemiology. Some are better regarded than others. Some are better with different types of diseases (virus vs bacteria, flu like vs non flu like). Yet, because of their education, knowledge and experience, trained epidemiologists are considered experts in the field of epidemiology. This is my definition of an expert in their field - Someone who has had extensive training, education and experience in a particular field of work/study.

So, my question back to you is what qualifications do you feel a person needs to be considered an expert and if it’s subjective, like the best in their field, who would make that judgement?
 
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Old Hickory

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So, my question back to you is what qualifications do you feel a person needs to be considered an expert and if it’s subjective, like the best in their field, who would make that judgement?

I agree that a deep dive into a person's background is critical in deciding the expert title.
 

rhonda

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I found the article very interesting. What frustrates me, though, about it and other things I‘ve read is what it doesn’t say.

He says he lives a healthy lifestyle but doesn’t elaborate on many details. Then it doesn’t say what measures he took after symptoms began before he went into the hospital. It also doesn’t go into depth about what treatment the hospital gave him.
Off topic ... but wouldn't we like to know how Maria Branyas, 113 yo, dealt with her Corona Virus?

 

eschjw

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Stockholm will reach 40% immunization by the end of May.


I very interested in how this will all turn out for Stockholm and the country of Sweden as a whole. Thanks for the link, Danny
 
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