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What if this expert is right? (CV-19 immunization)

b2bailey

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Virologist Peter Piot, director of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, fell ill with COVID-19 in mid-March. He spent a week in a hospital and has been recovering at his home in London since.

Piot, who grew up in Belgium, was one of the discoverers of the Ebola virus in 1976 and spent his career fighting infectious diseases. He headed the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS between 1995 and 2008 and is currently a coronavirus adviser to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. But his personal confrontation with the new coronavirus was a life-changing experience, Piot says.

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Excerpt from long story in sciencemag.org
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T.H.I.S. ---( I can't figure out how to change font.)

And despite the efforts, it is still not even certain that developing a COVID-19 vaccine is possible.
 

MrockStar

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Virologist Peter Piot, director of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, fell ill with COVID-19 in mid-March. He spent a week in a hospital and has been recovering at his home in London since.

Piot, who grew up in Belgium, was one of the discoverers of the Ebola virus in 1976 and spent his career fighting infectious diseases. He headed the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS between 1995 and 2008 and is currently a coronavirus adviser to European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. But his personal confrontation with the new coronavirus was a life-changing experience, Piot says.

=====
Excerpt from long story in sciencemag.org
=====
T.H.I.S. ---( I can't figure out how to change font.)

And despite the efforts, it is still not even certain that developing a COVID-19 vaccine is possible.
He seems very dedicated and highly qualified. A medical expert. I think we should listen to him.
 

DrQ

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It's a possibility, there are some pathogens which mutate quickly enough to make vaccines a guessing game. But with each round of immunization, the body becomes better at recognizing pieces of the puzzle.

We need to attack the problem on multiple fronts:
  • Vaccines
  • Develop reliable fast diagnostic test
    • Aggressive contact tracing
    • Quarantine contacts
  • Understanding why there are severe reactions
    • Develop early diagnosis of severe reaction
    • Find/Develop agents to stem severe reaction
    • Develop better palliative care modality
This is what we need to do rather than just pin our hopes on one solution.
 

tschwa2

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The world is certainly throwing a lot of time and effort into finding a vaccine but it might not work out. They have been working on an AIDS vaccine for decades without success. Fingers crossed and prayers for a cure/vaccine.
 

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It's a possibility, there are some pathogens which mutate quickly enough to make vaccines a guessing game. But with each round of immunization, the body becomes better at recognizing pieces of the puzzle.

We need to attack the problem on multiple fronts:
  • Vaccines
  • Develop reliable fast diagnostic test
    • Aggressive contact tracing
    • Quarantine contacts
  • Understanding why there are severe reactions
    • Develop early diagnosis of severe reaction
    • Find/Develop agents to stem severe reaction
    • Develop better palliative care modality
This is what we need to do rather than just pin our hopes on one solution.
I'm wondering how this quarantining for working people is going to go. Not everyone can work from home, and few can absorb another 2 weeks of unpaid time, let alone, repeatedly. There will be "cheaters" because people have to earn money and I don't see bosses ok with losing people periodically to quarantine, so there will be pressure to report to work. Also, where do these quarantined people go, since they can't go home if other people are there that also cannot absorb 14 days of not leaving home, no work, no pay.

Many problems to solve. We'll figure it out, we always do...
 

DrQ

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While we don't have an HIV vaccine yet, there are effective preventative drugs as well as post infection treatments.

While I would not wish it on anyone, it is not as bleak of a prognosis as it once was.
 

b2bailey

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Virologist Peter Piot, director of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said:

And despite the efforts, it is still not even certain that developing a COVID-19 vaccine is possible.
My point in posting this... Is to ask ... What if there will be no effective vaccine? There are comments on Tug, and certainly in the news saying "we will do thus and so" WHEN there is a vaccine. What I haven't heard is a Plan B.
 

Luanne

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My point in posting this... Is to ask ... What if there will be no effective vaccine? There are comments on Tug, and certainly in the news saying "we will do thus and so" WHEN there is a vaccine. What I haven't heard is a Plan B.
At this point so much is unknown. Will there be a vaccine? Won't there? When? I would hesitate to even make a guess. Any statement made here is instantly up for discussion and in some cases shaming. Have fun with your discussion.
 

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I'm wondering how this quarantining for working people is going to go. Not everyone can work from home, and few can absorb another 2 weeks of unpaid time, let alone, repeatedly. There will be "cheaters" because people have to earn money and I don't see bosses ok with losing people periodically to quarantine, so there will be pressure to report to work. Also, where do these quarantined people go, since they can't go home if other people are there that also cannot absorb 14 days of not leaving home, no work, no pay.

Many problems to solve. We'll figure it out, we always do...
This would be after you get the infection under control. Whether on not that is possible, is arguable.

This type of quarantine would be more aggressive, like for ebola. You get caught outside of quarantine, your next stop is jail isolation.

If we see another outbreak like in NYC, where the region's health system collapses, then it could come to this.
 

elaine

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Plan B is all the trials going on to see what drugs either stop replication of C19, like Tamiflu with the Flu, lessen the duration, or lessen severe complications, as well as corroborating on best medical practices, such as re-evaluating guidelines for intubation for low O2, as C19 behaves differently than expected. That's Plan B and that was also a key reason for early self-isolating, to give time for trials to get info.
 

rhonda

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I was with him until he mentioned vaccines.
 

DrQ

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My point in posting this... Is to ask ... What if there will be no effective vaccine? There are comments on Tug, and certainly in the news saying "we will do thus and so" WHEN there is a vaccine. What I haven't heard is a Plan B.
  • Develop reliable fast diagnostic test
    • Aggressive contact tracing
    • Quarantine contacts
  • Understanding why there are severe reactions
    • Develop early diagnosis of severe reaction
    • Find/Develop agents to stem severe reaction
    • Develop better palliative care modality
This is what they did with leprosy and tuberculosis prior to the discovery of antibiotics
 

b2bailey

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Plan B is all the trials going on to see what drugs either stop replication of C19, like Tamiflu with the Flu, lessen the duration, or lessen severe complications, as well as corroborating on best medical practices, such as re-evaluating guidelines for intubation for low O2, as C19 behaves differently than expected. That's Plan B and that was also a key reason for early self-isolating, to give time for trials to get info.
Thank you. This is what I am asking/looking for. I'm one who has never predicated my future actions upon a vaccine. But I would never have been bold enough to suggest that it won't happen. However, if this man, who I am willing to respect and call an expert, is saying it's a possibility, then I think it needs to be considered.
 

PigsDad

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Plan B is all the trials going on to see what drugs either stop replication of C19, like Tamiflu with the Flu, lessen the duration, or lessen severe complications, as well as corroborating on best medical practices, such as re-evaluating guidelines for intubation for low O2, as C19 behaves differently than expected. That's Plan B and that was also a key reason for early self-isolating, to give time for trials to get info.
I agree. I know it sounds harsh, but Plan B is to learn to live with it. Better treatments will lower the death rate, but the human race can continue on with a disease that kills less than 1%. I would venture to state that before modern medicine, the human race had to deal with diseases that killed way more than 1%, and society still managed.

Kurt
 

TravelTime

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Of course no one knows if it is possible to develop a covid vaccine. Until it happens, we will not know. It could be quick, it could take many years or maybe we will not find one. Even a vaccine does not mean there is no more covid. I think Plan B is finding treatments for Covid and learning to live with covid and other infectious diseases no matter what happens with a vaccine. We need an infectious diseases preparedness plan for the long term. Covid may go away but something else will pop up.
 

rhonda

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That was the entire point of my posting. I don't know how to interpret your comment.
I disagree with his position regarding vaccination as the 'be all, end all' of the problem. I especially disagree with a world-wide rollout if it is, in any sense, mandatory. Optional? A personal choice to accept? Sure ... but not mandatory and his tone seems to prepare the reader to blindly accept pharmaceuticals when they become available. There are other exit strategies. Perhaps strategies that western medicine and pharma prefer we didn't consider.

a snippet from the article said:
Let’s be clear: Without a coronavirus vaccine, we will never be able to live normally again. The only real exit strategy from this crisis is a vaccine that can be rolled out worldwide.
 

geekette

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I disagree with his position regarding vaccination as the 'be all, end all' of the problem. I especially disagree with a world-wide rollout if it is, in any sense, mandatory. Optional? A personal choice to accept? Sure ... but not mandatory and his tone seems to prepare the reader to blindly accept pharmaceuticals when they become available. There are other exit strategies. Perhaps strategies that western medicine and pharma prefer we didn't consider.
I don't know, seems to me like he knows that many people just want something easy to make it go away, and want to believe the vax will be that magic. I have been to too many doctors that want to push a pill on me vs investigate my actual issue. Take a pill, shut up, get out, you'll be fine .... Feels kind of the same, right? Just take this ... yeah, tone.

If there is a vax, I am pretty sure it will be shared worldwide. Whether people will accept it is another question. And the big unknown, long term, would that actually work?? Or, another big ole wave in 2 years, in 6 years, in 8 years....
 

rhonda

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I have been to too many doctors that want to push a pill on me vs investigate my actual issue. Take a pill, shut up, get out, you'll be fine .... Feels kind of the same, right? Just take this ... yeah, tone.
Time for a Functional Medicine approach?
 

b2bailey

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I disagree with his position regarding vaccination as the 'be all, end all' of the problem. I especially disagree with a world-wide rollout if it is, in any sense, mandatory. Optional? A personal choice to accept? Sure ... but not mandatory and his tone seems to prepare the reader to blindly accept pharmaceuticals when they become available. There are other exit strategies. Perhaps strategies that western medicine and pharma prefer we didn't consider.
I guess his position in favor of vaccines made me take note when he said "it may not happen" -- all others seem to say "when we have it". I'm certainly not one who will rush to get vaccinated -- and my biggest concern would be to be told I must.
 

rhonda

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I had to look that up. Hard pass for me.
Wiki offers an interesting perspective, indeed. I prefer the description found in the National Center for Biotechnology Information library:

It is a long article.
TL;DR snippets from the bottom, emphasis mine:

Functional medicine has evolved to be a clinical operating system for the application of a patient-centered, systems biology approach to health care. Its focus is on understanding an individual’s physiological, cognitive, emotional, and physical function, as well as on the design and implementation of a therapeutic program that is personalized to the functional needs of the patient.
<snip>
In the functional medicine model, the word function is aligned with the evolving understanding that disease is an endpoint and function is a process. Function can move both forward and backward. The vector of change in function through time is, in part, determined by the unique interaction of an individual’s genome with their environment, diet, and lifestyle. The functional medicine model for health care is concerned less with what we call the dysfunction or disease, and more about the dynamic processes that resulted in the person’s dysfunction.
 

Sea Six

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I'm frustrated that there does not seem to be agreement as to whether the presence of antibodies will prevent a re-occurrence. It would be nice to know that the people who were exposed and never had any symptoms can relax a little. I'm being tested on 5/13 for antibodies, just to see if my initial COVID test was not a false negative. I'd feel better if I thought that if I had the antibodies in my system I would'n have to worry anymore, but I doubt that's gonna happen.
 
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