The recent silver market

[ScoopKona]

Shrug - I don't have a crystal ball.

I don't need one.

There are two kinds of people:

1) Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data

 

[easyrider]

Are these dead cat bounces in the silver market, a bottoming out, or something else? Is anyone buying on these drops to ~$70?

Kurt

It kind of seems like it. Ever since the critical mineral designation and Walsh nomination silver prices have really took a down turn.

This hasnt changed the fact that there is a silver shortage with contract manipulation and 47's willingness to control areas strategic for militay applications. The Greenland tarriff threats may have partialy caused silver prices to increase last January. Recently, the Cuba santions could nudge silver prices higher .The safe haven idea is real for countries and huge investors. Not so much fot the average Joe silver holders, imo.

Bill

 

[Carolinian]

Are these dead cat bounces in the silver market, a bottoming out, or something else? Is anyone buying on these drops to ~$70?

Kurt

As to buying, the US bullion dealers are reporting record sales. In many parts of the world, it is difficult to find the larger bars from what I read. I can see on US bullion dealer websites that many items are not in stock these days.

What will be interesting is the next two weeks, when the Chinese bullion markets are closed for lunar new year, which might tempt the manipulators at the Comex to try to pull some stunt. Their problem is that they are about to run out of silver in their vaults as more and more contracts are standing for delivery. That could blow up their paper silver market in the next few months, but I cannot see what trick they could pull to solve that problem. Getting rid of the paper silver market, which is highly prone to manipulation would be a boon to having an honest market in silver.

 

[easyrider]

, but I cannot see what trick they could pull to solve that problem

I can. It's that the manipulators are too big to fail, imo.

Bill

 

[Brett]

I can. It's that the manipulators are too big to fail, imo.

Bill

Bunky Hunt is long gone, so now who is the big silver "manipulator" ?
(AI answers)

.

 

[Carolinian]

Currency debasement has been going on by governments for a long time. Ancient Rome did it with their silver denarius going from 95% silver to 90% under Nero, then being systematically reduced until when the empire fell it was only 5% silver. In medieval times, the Counts of Montfort who had a large silver mine and minted lots of coins were notorious for mixing in large amounts of base metals. It is much easier today with paper money and printing press or even more so digital money.

 

[Carolinian]

 

[easyrider]

Bunky Hunt is long gone, so now who is the big silver "manipulator" ?
(AI answers)


View attachment 122056



.

Yes, big fines were paid but it seems they can afford to pay the fine as a cost of doing business. Its also peculiar that JP Morgan & others suddenly quit shorting silver contracts and switched to buying massive amounts of physical silver as they went long on silver. Then they sold physical silver near the top and then bought back the physical silver at a lower price. It really looks like the physical silver price is manipulated.

It's interesting but means nothing to the average Joe silver stacker. Stackers stack, lol.

Bill

 

[Carolinian]

Yes, big fines were paid but it seems they can afford to pay the fine as a cost of doing business. Its also peculiar that JP Morgan & others suddenly quit shorting silver contracts and switched to buying massive amounts of physical silver as they went long on silver. Then they sold physical silver near the top and then bought back the physical silver at a lower price. It really looks like the physical silver price is manipulated.

It's interesting but means nothing to the average Joe silver stacker. Stackers stack, lol.

Bill

Who it should mean something to is federal prosecutors. Fines are one thing but jailing the perps is something that would really get their attention.

 

[easyrider]

Who it should mean something to is federal prosecutors. Fines are one thing but jailing the perps is something that would really get their attention.

I think it was two JP Morgan employees or associates that went to the nice Federal jail with small fines for a year a few others that cooperated and let go. All had ties to JP Morgan is what I think. Supposedly, JP Morgan would short silver contracts to drive the physical price lower then buy physical silver. They were caught using buying and selling orders that canceled before complete. Now they just buy and sell massive amounts of physical to manipulate the price.

What should happen soon, like at the end of the month, is there will be an accounting of sorts of silver inventory which again will show a huge deficit. This might be where it goes crazy again, lol.

Bill

 

[Carolinian]

I think it was two JP Morgan employees or associates that went to the nice Federal jail with small fines for a year a few others that cooperated and let go. All had ties to JP Morgan is what I think. Supposedly, JP Morgan would short silver contracts to drive the physical price lower then buy physical silver. They were caught using buying and selling orders that canceled before complete. Now they just buy and sell massive amounts of physical to manipulate the price.

What should happen soon, like at the end of the month, is there will be an accounting of sorts of silver inventory which again will show a huge deficit. This might be where it goes crazy again, lol.

Bill

What is likely to run dry over the next month or two is the Comex silver vault, and when that happens the corrupt paper silver market will likely implode. At the manipulated low price, lots of contracts are standing for delivery instead of cash settling.

I wish federal investigators would look at some of the corrupt practices of the Comex for prosecution, as well as the bullion banks.

 

[Brett]

Yes, big fines were paid but it seems they can afford to pay the fine as a cost of doing business. Its also peculiar that JP Morgan & others suddenly quit shorting silver contracts and switched to buying massive amounts of physical silver as they went long on silver. Then they sold physical silver near the top and then bought back the physical silver at a lower price. It really looks like the physical silver price is manipulated.

It's interesting but means nothing to the average Joe silver stacker. Stackers stack, lol.

Bill

Sure, nothing you can do about it.
I don't worry about wall street bank manipulations on the stock market or the bond market or real estate


.

 

[Carolinian]

The gold boom started much later than your chart. That is why those addicted to stocks start their charts farther out.

Here are the 5 year returns on gold and silver versus the S&P:
Gold +172.12%
Silver +230..68%
S&P +84.92%

Here is who has been driving the gold market with their buying:

Interestingly, the two countries that were the biggest net sellers of gold in 2020-2025 on the chart several posts above, Phillipines and Kazachkstan, were both net BUYERS of gold in 2025. The third, Sri Lanka, depleted much of its reserves, both currencies and gold in 2022 dealing with a severe financial crisis.

 

[Brett]

The gold boom started much later than your chart. That is why those addicted to stocks start their charts farther out.

Here are the 5 year returns on gold and silver versus the S&P:
Gold +172.12%
Silver +230..68%
S&P +84.92%

Here is who has been driving the gold market with their buying:

LOL
The "jitters" will end in 2.9 years


.

.

 

[Carolinian]

LOL
The "jitters" will end in 2.9 years


.

View attachment 122401


.

The "jitters" driving central bank buying of gold in the past few years has been the weakening of the fundamentals of all major fiat currencies from excessive government debt. The central banks are the whales in the gold market. Central banks are decreasing their holdings of all major fiat currencies - dollars, euros, yen, yuan, pounds, etc. and rotating into gold. Since none of the major issuers of fiat currency are likely to clean up their debt bombs, those "jitters" are going to remain for the long term.

You will note from the chart that who has been greatly increasing buying of gold have not been the investors in ETFs; but, on the contrary, the central banks.

You will also note from the chart I posted above, that those "jitters" among central bankers really kicked in during the prior administration, not this one.

 

[PigsDad]

Here are the 5 year returns on gold and silver versus the S&P:
Gold +172.12%
Silver +230..68%
S&P +84.92%

Once again, you compare gold/silver return with the S&P index gain, not the total return, ignoring the reinvested dividends.

Are you just so old you can't comprehend the difference? We've pointed this out to you several times, yet you still continue to post those bogus comparisons. Wow. I guess it's true -- you can't teach an old dog new tricks.

Kurt

 

[Carolinian]

Once again, you compare gold/silver return with the S&P index gain, not the total return, ignoring the reinvested dividends.

Are you just so old you can't comprehend the difference? We've pointed this out to you several times, yet you still continue to post those bogus comparisons. Wow. I guess it's true -- you can't teach an old dog new tricks.

Kurt

That is the only comparison figures, taken off a chart, that I have seen, but dividends are highly unlikely to close that gap. Yes they may reduce it some. Some are getting additional returns by leasing gold and silver but there is a risk in that.

The central banks, increasingly prefer having their reserves in gold sitting in vaults instead of interest bearing fiat currency government bonds. That should send a signal but some are too blind to see it..

 

[Brett]

That is the only comparison figures, taken off a chart, that I have seen, but dividends are highly unlikely to close that gap. Yes they may reduce it some. Some are getting additional returns by leasing gold and silver but there is a risk in that.

The central banks, increasingly prefer having their reserves in gold sitting in vaults instead of interest bearing fiat currency government bonds. That should send a signal but some are too blind to see it..

Hey, enjoy the go

Just remember to sell your hoard in ......... 1060 days

And remember to diversify

 

[Carolinian]

Brett - How many times has it been pointed out when you repetitively post that chart that it obviously comes from someone trying to sell financial products. One "tell" is that it's only real estate options are REITs. a financial product, while smart real estate investors actually buy the properties themselves. We own all of our residential rental properties ourselves, not through a REIT, Another bit of absolute nonsense is calling fiat currency assets "defensive".. There might be a handful of currencies, whose issuers are not drowning in government debt which might qualify, but none of the major ones. Even one of the more solid fiat currencies, the Swiss franc, can see government trying to push down its value because of the decline of the euro, and how a strong franc hurts Swiss exports to the rest of Europe.

 

[Carolinian]

The gold and silver markets are closed for the weekend, but will reopen this afternoon. Products can still be bought from bullion dealers online at Friday afternoon prices until the markets reopen. Military actions like that in Iran can have a big impact on markets. If one thinks that will drive the market up when it reopens, there is still time to buy. That appears to be happening because the range of gold products I usually buy is seeing many categories sold out

 

[Carolinian]

Once again, you compare gold/silver return with the S&P index gain, not the total return, ignoring the reinvested dividends.

Are you just so old you can't comprehend the difference? We've pointed this out to you several times, yet you still continue to post those bogus comparisons. Wow. I guess it's true -- you can't teach an old dog new tricks.

Kurt

Okay, lets look at year to date returns, which are not going to be impacted by dividends much.

Year to date
Gold up +22.15%
Silver up +30.77%
S&P up +0.30%

I bought about 5K of silver on Jan. 1, and wish I had bought more.

 

[PigsDad]

Okay, lets look at year to date returns, which are not going to be impacted by dividends much.

Year to date
Gold up +22.15%
Silver up +30.77%
S&P up +0.30%

I bought about 5K of silver on Jan. 1, and wish I had bought more.

You completely missed my point. Went straight over your head.

If you would read my post again, you would see that I never said the S&P is up as much as precious metals; silver and gold have been on a tear lately. I'm happy about that as well, as I own >500 oz of silver. My point is that you keep on comparing apples to oranges when you don't include the total return of a stock index. Like I said before: old dog, new tricks.

I think I should start charging you rent, as it is clear that I am currently living rent-free in your head since this obviously was stewing in your mind this whole week.

Kurt

 

[Brett]

Okay, lets look at year to date returns, which are not going to be impacted by dividends much.

Year to date


I bought about 5K of silver on Jan. 1, and wish I had bought more.

There you go - You can now retire with that sack of silver coins !

(dividends on the S&P count !)

 

[Carolinian]

You completely missed my point. Went straight over your head.

If you would read my post again, you would see that I never said the S&P is up as much as precious metals; silver and gold have been on a tear lately. I'm happy about that as well, as I own >500 oz of silver. My point is that you keep on comparing apples to oranges when you don'tSo

So, how much "total return" did the S&P bring in YTD, i.e. in the last two months?

 

[Carolinian]

There you go - You can now retire with that sack of silver coins !





(dividends on the S&P count !)

Well, no. Our residential rental real estate is our main generator of retirement income. Precious metals is our store of wealth, and is secondary. Most of our silver and gold was bought much earlier, at much lower prices, but we add to it from time to time. That silver purchase I referred to represented taking some of the excess out of our rental income account, and I wish I had taken at least 10K out at the time. I used it as an example, because it was our own YTD example.

One has to look at the dynamics of today's markets, not ancient history. Maybe you can tell me how much were paid in dividends on the S&P over the last two months? No, I did not think you could or would.