The recent silver market

[easyrider]

 

[Brett]

Bill, don't panic.. Your silver coins are still worth a lot more than last year

Remember, this is a hobby -- just for "kicks and giggles"

 

[easyrider]

Bill, don't panic.. Your silver coins are still worth a lot more than last year

Remember, this is a hobby -- just for "kicks and giggles"

No panic here but what an up and down ride for silver. I still think it's going to roller coaster for a while maybe ending somewhere near $150 by November.

Bill

 

[andre10056]

I think anyone who wants to keep all their money in dollar bills is not exercising good judgement. The dollar has been the go to currency for the world. It was looked upon as THE safe, stable option for generations. And now this country is looked upon as not being stable and, instead, a madhouse. And the national debt is going up by leaps and bounds.

Expect the dollar to keep going down (it just hit a four year low) and gold and silver, as quoted in dollars, to keep going up.

 

[TolmiePeak]

I think anyone who wants to keep all their money in dollar bills is not exercising good judgement. The dollar has been the go to currency for the world. It was looked upon as THE safe, stable option for generations. And now this country is looked upon as not being stable and, instead, a madhouse. And the national debt is going up by leaps and bounds.

Expect the dollar to keep going down (it just hit a four year low) and gold and silver, as quoted in dollars, to keep going up.

Maybe we should reconfigure the stock market so the shares are priced in gold bars.

 

[easyrider]

I think anyone who wants to keep all their money in dollar bills is not exercising good judgement. The dollar has been the go to currency for the world. It was looked upon as THE safe, stable option for generations. And now this country is looked upon as not being stable and, instead, a madhouse. And the national debt is going up by leaps and bounds.

Expect the dollar to keep going down (it just hit a four year low) and gold and silver, as quoted in dollars, to keep going up.

Even though the USD has lost ground it's still the best paper money in the world. It's because of TINA logic ( there is no alternative ) backed by a strong military more than any other reason , imo.

Bill

 

[TUGBrian]

so...deepfake?

 

[Carolinian]

I think anyone who wants to keep all their money in dollar bills is not exercising good judgement. The dollar has been the go to currency for the world. It was looked upon as THE safe, stable option for generations. And now this country is looked upon as not being stable and, instead, a madhouse. And the national debt is going up by leaps and bounds.

Expect the dollar to keep going down (it just hit a four year low) and gold and silver, as quoted in dollars, to keep going up.

The dollar is not the only fiat currency in that predicament. The yen and the pound are worse and the euro just as bad.

Here is an interesting take on something that will be in play on silver, the issue of whether the Comex vaults get drained in a month or so and what happens then. That could put the paper silver market out of business, and it is the paper silver market that creates all the volatility.

 

[Carolinian]

Here is an analysis by one of the experts I listen to every week.

 

[easyrider]

so...deepfake?

The man they are talking about is real. Brian Ximing is the person that made billions off of gold and silver. He is or was long on gold and currently is short on silver. His short position with silver has made a lot of money. If he switches and goes long on silver it will because they were able to drive the price down to accumulate more and wants the silver price to increase. Guys like him usually profit short and long. That's my 2 cents.

Bill

 

[Brett]

The man they are talking about is real. Brian Ximing is the person that made billions off of gold and silver. He is or was long on gold and currently is short on silver. His short position with silver has made a lot of money. If he switches and goes long on silver it will because they were able to drive the price down to accumulate more and wants the silver price to increase. Guys like him usually profit short and long. That's my 2 cents.

Bill

Deciding when to go long and accumulate more silver or when to go short -- it's difficult to time the market.
.
Carrying bags of silver back and forth to the bank safe deposit box could be tiring.


.

There is one simple trick ...........

 

[Carolinian]

Deciding when to go long and accumulate more silver or when to go short -- it's difficult to time the market.
.
Carrying bags of silver back and forth to the bank safe deposit box could be tiring.


.

There is one simple trick ...........

View attachment 121741

With shorter time frames, those charts tend to reverse. You are taking into account periods before exploding deficits in countries issuing major fiat currencies caused the world's central banks to start dumping fiat currencies from their monetary reserves and buying gold to replace them. The central bank of Poland, for example, just announced it was buying another 150 tons of gold. It is also before the continuing structural deficit in mine supply of silver arrived five years ago, something that will persist for years, and before industrial use of silver doubled.

Maybe we should compare the stock market versus gold and silver in the late 1920s and early 30s?

 

[emeryjre]

Been hearing about the collapse of currencies since Reagan Administration created huge deficits
In the 80’s
Still kicking despite one administration adding a 28% increase in 4 years
So the stock market has lived and grown through all these times

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Been hearing about the collapse of currencies since Reagan Administration created huge deficits
In the 80’s
Still kicking despite one administration adding a 28% increase in 4 years
So the stock market has lived and grown through all these times

So have virtually all investments.

 

[Carolinian]

Been hearing about the collapse of currencies since Reagan Administration created huge deficits
In the 80’s
Still kicking despite one administration adding a 28% increase in 4 years
So the stock market has lived and grown through all these times

Collapse and debasement of currencies are related but not the same, and we are certainly in a debasement phase. Whether we get to a full collapse or not is another issue. The debasement alone is enough to send the central banks moving to gold and decreasing their holdings of other fiat currencies. It is not just the dollar. It is all major fiat currencies. The central banks will not make sudden moves on that front because they do not want to set off a run on anyone's fiat currency, but they are likely to keep moving slowly and steadily in that direction.

The British pound and especially the Japanese yen are in much worse shape than the dollar. A collapse of the yen could cause contagion, which is why other central banks have been working to prop it up very recently. It is the fiat currency in the most danger.

Heck when I was in High school, gas was 32 cents a gallon, fast food hamburgers were 15 cents, and doughnuts were 5 cents. We have seen how far the value of the dollar has fallen since then.

Silver is a different issue. Only one central bank (Russia) holds silver as monetary reserves. Silver is now mostly an industrial metal, which accounts for 65% of its use these days, but is still a precious metal often regarded as "the poor man's gold" and seeing increased use in jewelry because of the price of gold. Its military uses have recently led silver to be designated a critical strategic mineral by multiple countries including the US, and so government is getting engaged in stockpiling it for those purposes.

 

[emeryjre]

With shorter time frames, those charts tend to reverse. You are taking into account periods before exploding deficits in countries issuing major fiat currencies caused the world's central banks to start dumping fiat currencies from their monetary reserves and buying gold to replace them. The central bank of Poland, for example, just announced it was buying another 150 tons of gold. It is also before the continuing structural deficit in mine supply of silver arrived five years ago, something that will persist for years, and before industrial use of silver doubled.

Maybe we should compare the stock market versus gold and silver in the late 1920s and early 30s?

I have an acquaintance from Australia
Well respected Geologist
He was involved in finding hard rock lithium deposits and graphite deposits in Australia before the rest of us were even aware there was going to be a boom in the battery business
They were very successful in finding them
I recently asked him about hard rock lithium deposits and the evolving DLE for lithium
He said they stopped hunting for lithium and graphite several years ago
Had been focused on gold, silver, and rare earths
He said not to be surprised if there was an announcements regarding gold, silver, and copper deposits in Australia soon

 

[emeryjre]

Currencies require stability among nations
If one country moves to get an advantage over the other by currency manipulation it breeds distrust
If one county imposes tariffs it breeds distrust
We have moved to new levels of distrust among countries in the last 10 years

 

[Carolinian]

I have an acquaintance from Australia
Well respected Geologist
He was involved in finding hard rock lithium deposits and graphite deposits in Australia before the rest of us were even aware there was going to be a boom in the battery business
They were very successful in finding them
I recently asked him about hard rock lithium deposits and the evolving DLE for lithium
He said they stopped hunting for lithium and graphite several years ago
Had been focused on gold, silver, and rare earths
He said not to be surprised if there was an announcements regarding gold, silver, and copper deposits in Australia soon

The overwhelming majority of silver (75% to 85%) is mined as a byproduct of another metal, often lead, zinc, or copper. Those mines are not in a position to ramp up silver production unless the demand for the primary metal they mine has also increased. Copper is also in increased demand, so deposits that hold both copper and silver would be of particular value to exploit. Of course, new mines take years to come onstream.

 

[Carolinian]

Currencies require stability among nations
If one country moves to get an advantage over the other by currency manipulation it breeds distrust
If one county imposes tariffs it breeds distrust
We have moved to new levels of distrust among countries in the last 10 years

The main thing currencies need is not being overburdened with debt. Napoleonic Wars debt almost sank the British pound in the aftermath of the war and would have if the Rothchilds had not bailed them out. World War I debt sank the German mark. The country most overburdened with debt presently is Japan, and it is the country with a currency most in trouble.

As to currency manipulation, the big offender there has been China.

Tariffs have been a source of government revenue for years. Prior to the War Between the States, tariffs were the main source of government revenue in the United States, well over 90% of all revenue, and with its import / export economy, the south paid the lions share of that. It was the reason for the Nullification crisis in the Andrew Jackson adminostration, when the South Carolina legislature nullified a federal tariff increase and Jackson threatened to march federal troops into South Carolina and to hang his vice president, South Carolinian John C. Calhoun. After the war until the turn of the 20th century, tariffs returned as the principle source of federal revenue. Given our country's history of tariffs, the recent tempest in a tea cup over them has been downright silly. People were claiming they would bring huge inflation but they did not.

 

[emeryjre]

The overwhelming majority of silver (75% to 85%) is mined as a byproduct of another metal, often lead, zinc, or copper. Those mines are not in a position to ramp up silver production unless the demand for the primary metal they mine has also increased. Copper is also in increased demand, so deposits that hold both copper and silver would be of particular value to exploit. Of course, new mines take years to come onstream.

I will let him know
He probably is out looking using the wrong parameters
New mines are usually burdened by environmental factors and permits
The Resolution copper mine has been held up for 20 years
If the Chinese wanted a new mine in Australia
Bet it could happen far quicker depending on where in the outback it was located

 

[easyrider]

As to currency manipulation, the big offender there has been China.

They are or were. The USD value dropping is a huge currency manipulation, imo. A lower valued USD makes exports cheaper, makes exports more competitive, reduces the trade deficit all of which creates jobs in the USA. It's a battle to the bottom until one currency wins which I bet is the USD. This is probably why banks are loading up on gold and silver.

Bill

 

[emeryjre]

So have virtually all investments.

Certain types of CMO bonds had some hiccups along the way

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Once again, everything has also had hiccups along the way, as well.

 

[PigsDad]

Are these dead cat bounces in the silver market, a bottoming out, or something else? Is anyone buying on these drops to ~$70?

Kurt

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Are these dead cat bounces in the silver market, a bottoming out, or something else? Is anyone buying on these drops to ~$70?

Kurt

Shrug - I don't have a crystal ball.