The recent silver market

[Elan]

There's a YouTube video with Kevin O'Leary sharing his thoughts on last week's silver crash. Pretty interesting.
I got out of my $AGQ position up around 50% and put roughly 25% of my profits into Sept $SLV calls.

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[andre10056]

I was under the impression that it was the announcement of Warsh as head of the Fed. That surprised everyone in that he's known to be an anti-inflation hawk...meaning keeping interest rates higher...and not what a certain someone wants nowadays. But apparently he's now toeing the company line in order to get nominated and he's abandoned his anti-inflation hawkishness. Inflation, of course, is good for gold and silver.

 

[Carolinian]

There's a YouTube video with Kevin O'Leary sharing his thoughts on last week's silver crash. Pretty interesting.
I got out of my $AGQ position up around 50% and put roughly 25% of my profits into Sept $SLV calls.

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Kevin O'Leary is one of those who have been subject to deep fakes, so you should ascertain that this particular one is real.

For the last 3 month period, silver is up over 83%, taking into account all the ups and downs, so I am happy holding physical metal. With my Dec. 31 silver purchase, I had to add another safe deposit box, but at least at my credit union, the box rent is cheap. I wish I had put more out of our rental property account into silver then. We would like to buy another house or two, but the property market in our areas is not conducive to that right now, so precious metals is where we are parking those funds.

There is a lot of suspicion about whether some of the ETF's actually have the metal to back them up, but if I were inclined to go that direction, I would do what my brother does and use PSLV, which is the one with the best reputation for integrity. It's silver is vaulted with the Royal Canadian Mint.

 

[Elan]

I was under the impression that it was the announcement of Warsh as head of the Fed. That surprised everyone in that he's known to be an anti-inflation hawk...meaning keeping interest rates higher...and not what a certain someone wants nowadays. But apparently he's now toeing the company line in order to get nominated and he's abandoned his anti-inflation hawkishness. Inflation, of course, is good for gold and silver.

O'Leary mentions the "rushed" announcement of Warsh as helping to facilitate the sell-off. And sudden increases in margin requirements. Basically claims that the intent was to liquidate retail so that institutions could cover shorts.

I personally don't really care why or how.

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[Elan]

Kevin O'Leary is one of those who have been subject to deep fakes, so you should ascertain that this particular one is real.

Could be. I don't act on anyone's input, other than my own, so I don't really care. It just happened to come up on my YouTube feed.

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[andre10056]

O'Leary mentions the "rushed" announcement of Warsh as helping to facilitate the sell-off. And sudden increases in margin requirements. Basically claims that the intent was to liquidate retail so that institutions could cover shorts.

I personally don't really care why or how.

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Anyone who knew that it would be Warsh who would be nominated, particularly since historically he's never been Mr. Lower Interest Rates, made tons of money with establishing new short positions right before that surprise announcement. Or, in the case of anyone with already existing short positions, they were able to get out with lesser losses.

But now that Warsh has clarified his 2026 orientation, IT'S ON again!

It would have been nice to have been in the know.

 

[Carolinian]

I was under the impression that it was the announcement of Warsh as head of the Fed. That surprised everyone in that he's known to be an anti-inflation hawk...meaning keeping interest rates higher...and not what a certain someone wants nowadays. But apparently he's now toeing the company line in order to get nominated and he's abandoned his anti-inflation hawkishness. Inflation, of course, is good for gold and silver.

Massive government debt by the issuers of all fiat currencies is what is pushing the market to gold and silver. The whales, the world's central banks are loading up on gold because they do not trust each other's fiat currencies, and are decreasing holding of all major fiat currencies. The fiat currency most at risk right now is the Japanese yen, but a major move there could impact others. The son of one of my good friends who works at the currency desk of a major hedge fund calls the US dollar "the least sick horse in line at the glue factory" but that does not mean it is not sick. The huge number of dollars held abroad means that in the event of any run on the dollar, it could get ugly real fast.

Silver is not held by central banks as a reserve, except for one (Russia), and is now more of an industrial metal than a precious metal, at least in terms of how it is actually used, but is still regarded as "the poor man's gold". It tends to be more prone to big swings than gold. Because of its use in military applications, it has been designated a critical strategic mineral in the US and Europe, with the intent to stockpile it for those purposes.

Warsh was always a question mark as to his policies, and blaming Friday's actions on him is a red herring.

Gold is now back over $5,000 and silver over $89. Thank you Comex and Morgan for the dip, but you did those leveraged long speculators on the paper silver market dirty.

 

[andre10056]

Massive government debt by the issuers of all fiat currencies is what is pushing the market to gold and silver. The whales, the world's central banks are loading up on gold because they do not trust each other's fiat currencies, and are decreasing holding of all major fiat currencies. The fiat currency most at risk right now is the Japanese yen, but a major move there could impact others. The son of one of my good friends who works at the currency desk of a major hedge fund calls the US dollar "the least sick horse in line at the glue factory" but that does not mean it is not sick. The huge number of dollars held abroad means that in the event of any run on the dollar, it could get ugly real fast.

Silver is not held by central banks as a reserve, except for one (Russia), and is now more of an industrial metal than a precious metal, at least in terms of how it is actually used, but is still regarded as "the poor man's gold". It tends to be more prone to big swings than gold.

Warsh was always a question mark as to his policies, and blaming Friday's actions on him is a red herring.

You're talking long term fundamentals. Warsh may have been the reason for an abrupt, brief, and temporary reversal.

But I think you're right. Even if Warsh is lying his butt off about his new orientation in order to get nominated, and will yet again become an anti-inflation hawk, it won't make a difference.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

What is really curious is that the SLV ETF, which is controlled by the big bullion bank most at risk from massive short positions on silver, did very heavy shorting of silver on Friday. Did they have the inside scoop on what was afoot? Or were they part of the game to crash silver? On the gold and silver markets the "mark to market" days at the end of the month are always the ones to watch for funny business. We have just had two of them in a row that have raised eyebrows. Another time that funny business often occurs are the thinly traded Sunday evening bullion markets and in holiday periods.

It is also interesting that Tether, the stablecoin issuer, is amassing huge gold reserves stored in Switzerland. In Q3 of last year, they bought more gold than any one central bank.

The silver price is overall up almost 15% over the last 30 days, including both the ups and downs. The big bullion banks have been bailed out on their bad bets and now the market is moving upward again.

Once is happenstance.
Twice is coincidence.
The third time, Mr. Bond, the third time is enemy action.

Ian Fleming, Goldfinger

 

[easyrider]

I'm putting in a buy order on silver when it hits $25 an ounce. I prefer to buy low.

You should have bought on Friday, but even if you did, the premiums are now very high.

Bill

 

[easyrider]

You are absolutely correct. My post was just a weak attempt to channel my inner Carolina and stir up trouble when peace and calm is all we really need.

Well that's no fun.

Bill

 

[TolmiePeak]

Well that's no fun.

Bill

Correct. I wonder if we can all attend the TUG User group meeting next year and discuss the silver market?

 

[easyrider]

Could be. I don't act on anyone's input, other than my own, so I don't really care. It just happened to come up on my YouTube feed.

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I think I saw that clip or a similar one on MSM. I did see the clip about the timing of the silver downturn and who shorted contracts then bought physical. While these clips are interesting, I still think the main reason for the price fluctuating so fast is the disconnect between physical demand and paper contracts while silver has once again became a main tier 1 asset.

Bill

 

[jp10558]

If you want to stir up s**t
Get a free Twitter Account
Fake name is best
You can find many real A**holes
Real disgusting bots
Have at ‘em until you’re worn out
It is the reason Twitter exist

Like this is the first explanation I've seen for a reason to use twitter. A place to troll other trolls and bots lol. I would also suggest some subreddits probably, but I don't go to those lol.

 

[easyrider]

Correct. I wonder if we can all attend the TUG User group meeting next year and discuss the silver market?

Sure, why not ?

If physical silver does what I think it's going to do because of the re-valuation of gold and other reasons, a 20-1 silver to gold ratio would mean silver goes to $500 per ounce. The momentum of physical silver has increased from over a 100-1 ratio in 2025 to close to 50-1 last month, then back to 57-1 last Friday. While totally anecdotal, the silver to dollar ratio on the US debt clock has silver at over $1000 per ounce.

Bill

 

[andre10056]

I've been waiting for the recognition that our actual rate of inflation is far higher than what's being reported.

Clearly, tariffs should be making our inflation rate unacceptably high. So why is it seemingly pretty low still?

I think that businesses are very adept at "hiding" their higher prices. We've already heard about Walmart charging 25% less (hurrah!) for their Christmas package compared to last year's Christmas package. And then we also heard that they dropped many of the items from last year's package and replaced items with generic "equivalents".

I just recently stayed in the Marriott Custom House that only has a microwave in its efficiency kitchen. During that week, I rediscovered "heat in the microwave" frozen food items that I had not eaten in a while. The Stouffer's Stuffed Pepper was tiny in comparison to past years. It used to be that they cut a pepper in half and filled it with their meat stuffing. Now they apparently still cut the pepper in half, but then they cut another half to three quarters of an inch off the edge. Result: less meat filling.

Swanson's Hungryman Grilled Beef Patty dinner same thing. The grilled beef patties are now tiny.

All businesses can find some way to give you less for the same money (although most often they still charge more money).

 

[easyrider]

All businesses can find some way to give you less for the same money (although most often they still charge more money).

Nothing new with that. I saw rib eye sliced into lunch meat thickness at Costco the other day. Is it still a steak at 1/4 inch thick ?

Bill

 

[Brett]

Well that's no fun.

Bill

Well, it's a little fun

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.https://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-100-year-chart

 

[easyrider]

Well, it's a little fun

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View attachment 121550


View attachment 121551
.https://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-100-year-chart

I guess it's kind of fun either way, lol.

Bill

 

[Carolinian]

I think I saw that clip or a similar one on MSM. I did see the clip about the timing of the silver downturn and who shorted contracts then bought physical. While these clips are interesting, I still think the main reason for the price fluctuating so fast is the disconnect between physical demand and paper contracts while silver has once again became a main tier 1 asset.

Bill

When the Comex starts repeatedly raising margins, they set off an involuntary cascade of selling. The holder of each contract has to either 1) come up with more cash to keep his contract active, or 2) submit to a forced sale. Because some speculators on margin cannot make the new margin, their contracts get forcibly sold, driving down the price, which then puts pressure on other speculators, and when the margin is raised again, more contracts are forcibly sold, and the process keeps cascading. The Comex knows where the stops are, and that is why it is a huge conflict of interest to allow them to arbitrarily change the rules in the middle of the game. If they change the rules at the end of a contract period for those who take up contracts during the next period, that would be fair, but doing it in the middle of the game is an unfair and deceptive business practice.

The speculators who are on margin are the ones that get rinsed and lose money, but it impacts the overall silver price, too. For those not interested in selling anytime soon, that can actually be a benefit in creating a buying opportunity, but it corrupts the system and should not be allowed.

But the Comex may have cooked its own goose because their shananigans are causing more contract holders to stand for delivery, draining their vaults. When the vaults are empty, it will be game over for the Comex silver charade. Comex only has a tiny fraction of actual silver to cover their contracts, expecting most contract holders to cash settle. When they no longer do, Comex is toast. Good riddance!

 

[Brett]

I guess it's kind of fun either way, lol.

Bill

Sure, it's a hobby

The wife is glad you're out of the house carrying bags of silver coins to the safe deposit box (lol)

 

[Carolinian]

You're talking long term fundamentals. Warsh may have been the reason for an abrupt, brief, and temporary reversal.

But I think you're right. Even if Warsh is lying his butt off about his new orientation in order to get nominated, and will yet again become an anti-inflation hawk, it won't make a difference.

Actually, it is also current fundamentals as to silver. Demand has outstripped mine supply for the last five years, and projections are that this will continue in coming years. More are more silver is going for industrial use, now around 65% when not too many years ago it was 35%. With the high price of gold, more jewelry is moving to silver. In India, where jewelry is an even bigger cultural thing than it is here, a lot of jewelry is now silver with gold plating when it used to be all gold. China has much of the world's refinery capacity on silver, and refines much of the ore from Latin America, but they have now highly restricted export of refined silver. It goes to China for refining but then stays there. That kicked in on January 1.

 

[Brett]

Actually, it is also current fundamentals as to silver. Demand has outstripped mine supply for the last five years, and projections are that this will continue in coming years. More are more silver is going for industrial use, now around 65% when not too many years ago it was 35%. With the high price of gold, more jewelry is moving to silver. In India, where jewelry is an even bigger cultural thing than it is here, a lot of jewelry is now silver with gold plating when it used to be all gold. China has much of the world's refinery capacity on silver, and refines much of the ore from Latin America, but they have now highly restricted export of refined silver. It goes to China for refining but then stays there. That kicked in on January 1.

Which makes for a HUGE buying on the dip opportunity

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https://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-100-year-chart

 

[Carolinian]

Which makes for a HUGE buying on the dip opportunity

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View attachment 121561


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https://www.macrotrends.net/1470/historical-silver-prices-100-year-chart

As usual, Brett, you look a very long timeframe, during much of the time in which economic factors were much different. A look at a one year, three year, or even five year timeframe is MUCH different.

Silver is back up over $90 today and gold over $5,000. The last major silver purchase I made was a little over a month ago at $71, and most of mine is much lower than that. I am personally happy for the dip when I bought some gold around $4,700, but very unhappy about what the Comex and bullion banks did to the leveraged long speculators to create the dip. That was dishonest with a capital D. This is the third time they have pulled a similar stunt as Ralph Sir Edward pointed out with his Goldfinger quote, and something ought to be done to put a stop to such shananigans.

Union Bank of Switzerland's analysts have released projections of $6.200 gold and $105 silver by next month.

 

[easyrider]

I read David Bateman bought a huge amount of physical silver on this recent dip. The article claims he now owns more silver than the sge.

Bill