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Speculation About Marriott's New Timeshare Structure [merged]

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taffy19

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Has anyone considered that Marriott may be 'forced' to charge more than we think (albeit perhaps after a low 'initial offer') to allow people to convert to points based upon the fact that there are Marriott customers out there who have paid US$5K for the privilege of converting their Phuket Week to Marriott Asia Points?
Surely the owners who elected to do that will be less than impressed if converting to points now costs only 595 (and presumable AP and MVCD will be merged?)
I can imagine that his must hurt. :bawl: How do you think timeshare buyers felt when prices dropped by 25% for the same timeshare condo they bought less than two weeks ago but it was too late to rescind the contract? :wall: That must have hurt a lot more yet. What about if you buy an expensive car and then a week later, it is offered at a big discount too or an expensive cruise? It all hurts when you are at the wrong place at the wrong time for buying a product. Does that mean that a business can never have a sale anymore because it will hurt a customer who bought just before the sale? No more computer or big screen TV discounts either or any other big item we buy on sale. Would you like that? Nevertheless, it still hurts a lot and you have a right to be upset.

What about direct buyers who find out later that they could have picked up the same timeshare at pennies on the dollar? :( I know that they should have done their due diligence during the time they were able to rescind the contract but the developers count on the fact that people do not do this while on vacation. I doubt if many people would convert today at a cost of $5,000 when the economy is so shaky.
 

m61376

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It's going to be a major handicap however if legacy points can not be banked for a future year and only be used in current year or transferred to MRPs. I'm watching closely to see what the program does for this.

This will be very interesting to watch!

Best to all,

Greg

Keep in mind, though, that II is Marriott's biggest competitor for trades. I think Marriott is well aware that life events crop up and many times people need to be able to defer their trips. If Marriott won't allow banking, then people will turn to II. I think Marriott will offer banking and borrowing to increase participation in the new program.
 

m61376

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OK, how about this -

I am a bit worried that Marriott will charge low fees upfront (exchanges, annual dues, whatever)...just to lure legacy owners and new owners into the new system. Basically, Marriott would be subsidizing these fee(s).

A few years down the line when the new system is up and running with adequate membership/units, the Marriott subsidy(s) goes away - result => larger fee(s), maybe much larger.

This is (what I believe happens) similar to what Marriott has done in the past (and current?) when they build new resorts - subsidize the annual MF's, to keep the first few years' of MF's low, to entice new owners. Once the resort is near sellout, the subsidy goes away and owners are saddles with the higher MF's.

Sorry, for the negative thought, but maybe I've been drinking the Perry-coolaid today : )

Do you really think, though, that they would be subsidizing anything with an annual $169 cost ad infinitum? Their "cost" (already covered by management fees0 for reservations will not be that different, since people are still making a "reservation," just like they do now or at a hotel. The increased complexity is largely handled by hopefully a good reservation program.

The $595 or $695 upfront fee will cover the cost of development and of any conversion paperwork, and I'm guessing still leave them with a tidy profit at the end of the day. Maybe I am naive, but I think the bulk of the annual fee will be pure profit, because once in place I don't think this system will be any more expensive to run than the current "free" reservation system.
 

dougp26364

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Keep in mind, though, that II is Marriott's biggest competitor for trades. I think Marriott is well aware that life events crop up and many times people need to be able to defer their trips. If Marriott won't allow banking, then people will turn to II. I think Marriott will offer banking and borrowing to increase participation in the new program.

While it's not advertised I think you'll find that most developers contract with Interval to handle their internal exchange program rather than build their own workforce. There won't be any indication that it's Interval employee's answering your call but Interval is most likely the contracted labor and call center that's running the system. Contracting Interval is probably the most economical way to run their internal exchange program.
 

dougp26364

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Of course, let's not forget that not only is this based on "conversations" with sales staff in part, there is also quite a bit of Perry's speculation here. I haven't read anywhere that there will be a differentiation between legacy owners and those that buy directly into the points system after June.

IF Marriott were to create such a schism, and exclude even its most loyal customers from any future properties, I think they would be making one huge mistake. Talk about throwing away customer loyalty. People bought direct with the expectation of being able to trade into current and future resorts. Dividing the old and the new is not in anybody's best interests and, while I could be proved wrong next week, I anticipate you'll have to do quite a bit of editing.

Time will tell who says "I told you so." Hopefully we'll all be mature enough to :ignore:

Even when faced with being wrong about so many things, like the cost to join, Perry still looks for the lump of coal in his Christmas stocking.
 

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My hope of Points members being able to exchange Points is far fetched, I agree, but WM does it. This would be a goody that folks who buy Points from Marriott get and no one else. But there isn't anything in it for Marriott and the chance of this happening I'd guess is 10%.

Weeks are out and Points are in - so I believe Marriott will make a difference between Legacy Points and Points they sold from the trust. They have to keep them separate now and why not make them something the salesreps can talk about:

"Don't by resale Points - you'll be sorry"....

Exchanging points is not a new concept with Interval. DRI does it as well. That's why I say there WILL be points based weeks available for exchange with Interval for those that don't join Marriott's points based internal system. Marriott will be under contract to give Interval a certain number of weeks of a certain quality and season. Marriott is also going to want new, non-Marriott blood at those resorts for their sales staff.
 

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That could be and there are NO rumors of my guess.

But Marriott is in business to sell POINTS in a new system and they might give the salesrep a tool to help do that.

Also Marriott is going to make a difference between resale Points and Points they sell - it's going to be something. My guess is that Legacy Points will be treated as resale Points.

Welcome to my world....

I doubt there will be a difference between resale points, legacy points and newly sold points. At least not anything of major difference. Maybe something along the lines of what Marrriott does now as far as Marrriott Rewards points (resale points might not be able to book hotel nights) or, something along the lines of DRI where resale buyers get the underlying week for legacy weeks but have to pay a conversion fee to re-join the points program.

You world is filled with far to many negative and unrealistic thoughts. I think I'll pass on your invitation.
 

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Even when faced with being wrong about so many things, like the cost to join, Perry still looks for the lump of coal in his Christmas stocking.

Perry is a smart guy who takes extreme positions to get message board ratings. He doesn't actually believe half of what he posts.

As long as we're talking about Perry I'll confess, too - for some reason when I see Perry's name I always think "Scoop says roasted NOT FRIED turkey!" :hysterical: I think when I first started reading here I confused something from him with a post from Scoop about cooking and the imagery is stuck in my mind now.

Who knows, it could be that it wasn't even Perry who was in whatever that thread was; it may even be that Scoop LOVES fried turkey and I got whatever he said wrong, too. But it's there now in my brain and it just won't leave. :eek:
 

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I am still shocked that people would pay money to convert their Marriott weeks into MR points. The ONLY reason I could see doing that is if your Interval account has too many deposits and you cannot find a way to use them for 2-3 years. Otherwise, the conversions are terrible. Remember, it takes 30,000 MR points to stay at your Standard, Basic Marriott hotel for 1 night. So, if your MR timeshare gives you 125,000 points (as an example), that is 4 nights. If your TS costs $1000/year plus the fee to convert, how do you justify paying over $250/night for basic Marriott hotels. I hope people are using them to stay in New York or Hawaii, because otherwise, they are getting a terrible deal.

Hilton is every worse. It takes 80,000 points per night to stay at the Grand W on Maui. That means that a Platinum week in Hawaii from HGVC might get you 1 night at their top of the line hote.

I was sort of shocked that I converted my DRI weeks at a cost of $2,995 but, when I looked at the program and, because all we were doing was exchanging those weeks, I found that the points offered not only more flexability but, also were more cost effective to use.

In my case, we paid $2,995 to join and pay a membership fee of $245/year. Internal exchanges have no additional charge, even for exchanges less than 1 week and, I can convert unused points to MF payments, rental cars, flight vouchers, crusie discounts et..... I'm still getting the exchanges I wanted but, in our case at least, I still have left over points I can use for other services. Next year we break even on our initial cost plus the yearly addede management fee. It works for us.

While that system works for us there is no guarentee that we'll see the same return on Marriott's system. We tend to use our Marriott weeks and exchange the lock-off portions. We purchased the units we wanted but, we also purchased larger units than we needed now based on anticipated future needs. It might not be as cost efficient for us to join Marriott's program based on how we use our Marriott weeks. Until I see the actual numbers, can look at our history of how we've used our weeks and how the new program would have compared to what we currently have, I can't say whether or not we'll convert. It looks good at first glance and has my attention but, I'll need to see the details and get the calculator out. My thought is that it will be a very flexable program but, it's going to be a wash as to whether it's more cost effective for us. So it may come down to anticpating future needs and preserving the right to use the new system before we really need it.
 

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Scoop to nuts...

As long as we're talking about Perry I'll confess, too - for some reason when I see Perry's name I always think "Scoop says roasted NOT FRIED turkey!" :hysterical: I think when I first started reading here I confused something from him with a post from Scoop about cooking and the imagery is stuck in my mind now.

Who knows, it could be that it wasn't even Perry who was in whatever that thread was; it may even be that Scoop LOVES fried turkey and I got whatever he said wrong, too. But it's there now in my brain and it just won't leave. :eek:

Scoop to nuts I've got it covered.
 

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Even when faced with being wrong about so many things, like the cost to join, Perry still looks for the lump of coal in his Christmas stocking.

Just try to find a lump of coal anywhere.

Santa long ago started handing out Kingsford charcoal - I BBQ all summer with my Christmas haul.
 

dougp26364

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In my discussions with a sales rep, he was pretty non-committal about the new system, but he did indicate that he thought it would not be possible to lock-off my unit and deposit the lock-off into the points system. And that the lock-off would have to go to II. This was something I'd hoped for in the new system because it would be a great opportunity to build points in a new system from my lock-off.

If this is the case, then I think you will see alot of lock-off inventory going into II, from people who are using their 1BR for personal use. The question is whether people who don't always use the 1BR for personal use will continue to use II to deposit their 1BR or elect the point system.

As we have surmised before, I suspect this will significantly reduce the availability in II, and may also result in an increase in Direct Exchanges.

All the best,

Greg

Sounds like a sales rep that hasn't ever seen a points program. In points programs, you just have points. There is no need to lock-off your unit. I would imagine that you'll get a specified number of points for you entire unit. Then, if you only want to use the master suite, you'll have to spend enough points to reserve the master suite but, you'll still have points left over as a 1 bedroom unit won't cost the same number of points as a two bedroom unit. Therefor you'll still have the points from your lock-out unit.

It's not the same as locking out and getting points for one portion but not the other but, it will have the same effect. You reserve with points at your home resort the size of unit you want, then use the remaining points for exchange.

For those like me that exchange through Interval this might not work as well. Assuming Interval does a straight exchange for Marriott points, I won't be able to use a studio and attempt and exchange into a resort like Custom House that has only 1 bedroom units. Trading that studio up will become considerably tougher to do if not impossible.

On the other hand, rather than rely on trying to trade up in size, I could, in theory at least, combine the points from that studio unit with the points of the 1 bedroom LO unit at Grand Chateau and then have enough points for a two bedroom unit within the system. This could work for me as I'd prefer to combine both units for one bigger exchange than try to exchange two smaller units for two seperate vacations. That's just were we are right now in how we use our ownerships. This obviously wouldn't work well for everyone.
 

dougp26364

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I have been following this discussion for the past few weeks: Question that I have is how factual is the information? A close friend works for Marriott timeshares and when we discussed this the conclusion was that the rumors were greater than the actual truth. I appreciate all the information that has been accumulated here, but I feel like a panic going to settle in if Marriott goes through with this on the 20th to be effective on the 21st! We own 3 Marriott weeks and I will be booking on the 24 at one of my home resorts. I really do hope that I do not have a problem!

When speaking with an interval representative, they did confirm that trades this year are difficult due to the lack of available units. A manager at one of the Marriott timeshares, told me the same thing. He said that he was very frustrated with the lack of available units for exchange.

I am going to try to think positive and hope for the best. I will say that if you try to reach Marriott via your assigned representative, it is very difficult! I had to wait for her to get back to me ...2 days! She was very sorry but said that the call volume had increased to record numbers in the past few weeks!

Let's hope this works for all of us!

I have also noticed a drop in available units for exchange. At this point I believe it's more the economy than anything else. More units that normal may be going through the forclosure process, more owners may be traveling to their home resorts to cut back on exchange fee's. Drive to destinations may be more popular to cut out rental car fee's and airline ticktes.

I know that in our case we're looking at more drive to destinations and using our home resorts more often. We'll still make three exchanges. All but one will be within the internal exchange sytems. In essence, the exchanges companies will only see one of our weeks rather than the 3 or 4 they've been getting from us.
 

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dougp26364

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Over the years I've bumped into MANY Marriott owners who own 4+ weeks and these are Platinum Plus weeks they bought from Marriott at close to $175,000 - they were buying an alternative to a 2nd home.

For $695 they will ALL convert - what's the downside - they still have their deeds and can use them the normal way or deposit some and try the new system out.

I see this as a wildly successful program and that $695 will quickly increase in price in days to weeks.

I believe Marriott has done an excellent job of handling 400,000 owners and start a new path to selling Points.

Really, from all the latest rumors they sound like they aren't about to make mistakes many developers have made in similar situations.

But Marriott is now thinking Points and they will do many things to get us to buy Points in addition to keeping what we have that they can use to their benefit.

For example:
You own 4 Platinum weeks and are classified as a Legacy Points Account - Marriott tells you that you can buy 10,000 Points, for $25,000 and merge those 4 weeks into the account and all will be treated as a Marriott sold Points account which is much better to have.

Folks will buy into the above without a problem.

P.S.
I look at what's in front of me, do some analysis, and try to make plans and when new information is presented I iterate and iterate and iterate.

See, it doesn't look nearly as bad as what you originally predicted now does it. As it gets closer, it looks like those that said Marriott wasn't going to screw it's owners over were closer to the truth than those who believed this would be a nightmare for Marriott owners and would be the downfall of Marriott itself.

The problem was, there was nothing in front of you at all. You were jumping at shadows and making stuff up off the top of your head. Even when one looked at other points based systems, you original guesswork had little basis in reality. There are NO programs out there as bad as your original projections.
 

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Perry is a smart guy who takes extreme positions to get message board ratings. He doesn't actually believe half of what he posts.

I've read Perry's posts for years. To date, I think his batting average is pretty low when a reality check is done.
 

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...

The $595 or $695 upfront fee will cover the cost of development and of any conversion paperwork, and I'm guessing still leave them with a tidy profit at the end of the day. Maybe I am naive, but I think the bulk of the annual fee will be pure profit, because once in place I don't think this system will be any more expensive to run than the current "free" reservation system.
Well, You would be surprised how contracting labor costs nowadays. See how the IBM's and Accentures of the world seemly keep making more and more profits each quarter, let's just say their hourly rates aren't necessarily decreasing because of the bad economy. At $150-$500/hr, that labor really adds up. Not to mention, the ongoing cost of possibly new labor to handle the reservation process. I am of course assuming Marriott is adding/supplementing any existing reservations system they already have (with the hotel side).
 

dioxide45

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The New Marriott Timeshare Organization

logo_marriott.gif
It’s official folks – the name of the new timeshare division of Marriott is “Marriott Vacation Club Destinations” which will be launched on Monday, June 21, 2010.
The website will be: www.MarriottVacationClubDestinations.com

http://www.timesharewizard.com/marriott-vacation-club-destinations.html

This link to the Timeshare Wizard now has a photo apparently taken in Hawaii. Definitely plans to include hotels in the Destinations program. There are a lot of properties in the photo that appear will be included in the program. Though it is possible that these additional resorts are included since one will likely be able to exchange for MRP and you can then use those MRP to exchange in to hotels.
 
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That photo was posted in this thread a few pages back... I don't know how you could have missed it in this thread. :hysterical:
 
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I've read Perry's posts for years. To date, I think his batting average is pretty low when a reality check is done.

In some places, a batting average of 0.350 makes you an All Star...
 

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I've read Perry's posts for years. To date, I think his batting average is pretty low when a reality check is done.

I agree. I actually created a post with a laundry list of many of his predictions and the actual result. I was astounded at how wrong he was about so many topics.

That said, he is very smart and I agree with many of his underlying theories. He takes a kernel of truth and then wildly extrapolates it to the incorrect conclusion. I do think he knows this and savors the opportunity to post something bold to get people to react to it. To his credit, people do come out to post back and forth and the truth does end up coming out in the thread.

I used to think he was the opposite of Forrest Gump. But now, I know it is what he wants to happen.
 

dioxide45

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That photo was posted in this thread a few pages back... I don't know how you could have missed it in this thread. :hysterical:

If you are talking about this post, when it was initially posted yesterday morning, the photo wasn't available. If it was posted again, I did miss it. Like you said, not sure how.:ponder:
 

m61376

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Well, You would be surprised how contracting labor costs nowadays. See how the IBM's and Accentures of the world seemly keep making more and more profits each quarter, let's just say their hourly rates aren't necessarily decreasing because of the bad economy. At $150-$500/hr, that labor really adds up. Not to mention, the ongoing cost of possibly new labor to handle the reservation process. I am of course assuming Marriott is adding/supplementing any existing reservations system they already have (with the hotel side).

Certainly, millions have gone into software development, training and implementation- but if most of the owners convert, then the initial joining fee alone will approach a quarter of a billion dollars- that pay for a lot of upfront costs.

As for on-going costs- well, they already have a timeshare reservation system and cost in place, and presumably this will not be that much costlier to run. Their management fees already cover those reservation costs. That's why the $169 annual cost will likely be largely profit. Any increased cost because of housekeeping or wear and tear will be borne by the owners in the form of MF's, not by Marriott.

I think the new system, if designed as outlined, will turn a tidy multimillion dollar profit annually from that pesky $169 per owner fee which, while being an annoyance, will likely not be an impediment to most people and likely not discourage participation.

IF home resort priority is maintained and point values seem reasonable to most people, as well as several of questions already brought up, this may be a home run for Marriott. If it allows owners to use part of their week for points and part for a home resort reservation and allows borrowing/banking, it has the potential to have people clamoring to jump on the bandwagon. As always, the devil is in the details, and we will have to see the full program outline.

I can see a real benefit from combining possibly a lock-off and a 1 BR from different units or perhaps different years, combining points to get something bigger or better (or longer), and for premium property owners regaining value that they perceive as losing anytime they trade. I have met Ko'Olina owners, for example, who feel trapped returning yearly, because they feel gypped trading for an Orlando unit, for example, but would really enjoy going there. I have a friend who traded an Aruba Plat. Plus week for a Beachplace New Years week, loved the trip, but felt they were getting the short end of the stick. I know it is a matter of perception, and as far as I am concerned as long as you get what you want you've made a good trade, but others are frustrated if they feel they've traded down. Points, in essence, would be a currency, and higher value owners would get "change" from their purchases, rather than it being an all or none transaction.

Of course, the real test will be in valuations- and whether most people perceive them as being fair. And that's a toughie- because people tend to inflate the value of what they own.
 

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See, it doesn't look nearly as bad as what you originally predicted now does it. As it gets closer, it looks like those that said Marriott wasn't going to screw it's owners over were closer to the truth than those who believed this would be a nightmare for Marriott owners and would be the downfall of Marriott itself.

The problem was, there was nothing in front of you at all. You were jumping at shadows and making stuff up off the top of your head. Even when one looked at other points based systems, you original guesswork had little basis in reality. There are NO programs out there as bad as your original projections.

Just hold on one minute lets not all fall into a false sense of enlightenment. We have no idea how these so called points will convert? Has anyone seen a point conversion table and how that equates into a nights stay at a resort or hotel:crash:
 
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