Speculation About Marriott's New Timeshare Structure [merged]

[bwenzel]

Hi Fletch- Hope you will be around a lot over the next week to help us sort all of this out!

The bigger question is whether points will have the same booking window or a later booking window- will legacy owners booking their owned resort have first crack before generic points owners (whether newly purchased points owners or weeks owners opting to use points for the year)?

Will I have a 1 month (or even 1 week) jump on everyone else if I am booking my deeded unit (or what was once my deeded unit assuming that the underlying deeds change if one joins the new program)? Or will I be competing with anyone who has enough points to try to book my home resort?

This is exactly my question too! Since every points owner will be able to request a "prime time week" if there is not a differentiation in the booking window, I'm afraid deeded week owners are going to get screwed when trying to book their weeks!

I hope I'm wrong!

 

[PerryM]

Echoes of the past...

...
As far as I know, you cannot combine accounts or transfer points within two accounts.

....
Outstanding summary. Thank you.

Of course, let's not forget that not only is this based on "conversations" with sales staff in part, there is also quite a bit of Perry's speculation here. I haven't read anywhere that there will be a differentiation between legacy owners and those that buy directly into the points system after June.

...

My hope of Points members being able to exchange Points is far fetched, I agree, but WM does it. This would be a goody that folks who buy Points from Marriott get and no one else. But there isn't anything in it for Marriott and the chance of this happening I'd guess is 10%.

Weeks are out and Points are in - so I believe Marriott will make a difference between Legacy Points and Points they sold from the trust. They have to keep them separate now and why not make them something the salesreps can talk about:

"Don't by resale Points - you'll be sorry"....

 

[rsackett]

My hope of Points members being able to exchange Points is far fetched, I agree, but WM does it. This would be a goody that folks who buy Points from Marriott get and no one else. But there isn't anything in it for Marriott and the chance of this happening I'd guess is 10%.

Weeks are out and Points are in - so I believe Marriott will make a difference between Legacy Points and Points they sold from the trust. They have to keep them separate now and why not make them something the salesreps can talk about:

"Don't by resale Points - you'll be sorry"....

I can see a difference between Marriott sold points and resale points, but I doubt there will be a difference between Legacy weeks that owners pay Marriott to convert to points and points Marriott sells directly.

Ray

 

[PerryM]

I can see a difference between Marriott sold points and resale points, but I doubt there will be a difference between Legacy weeks that owners pay Marriott to convert to points and points Marriott sells directly.

Ray

That could be and there are NO rumors of my guess.

But Marriott is in business to sell POINTS in a new system and they might give the salesrep a tool to help do that.

Also Marriott is going to make a difference between resale Points and Points they sell - it's going to be something. My guess is that Legacy Points will be treated as resale Points.

Welcome to my world....

 

[m61376]

or the difference may be really a continuation of what it is now- and how it was incorporated into the AP program- only developer purchased weeks converted to points or developer direct purchased points can convert the timeshare points into hotel reward points.

It still is a distinguishing factor and, if Marriott enhances this benefit, may be a the benefit it once was.

 

[RedDogSD]

or the difference may be really a continuation of what it is now- and how it was incorporated into the AP program- only developer purchased weeks converted to points or developer direct purchased points can convert the timeshare points into hotel reward points.

It still is a distinguishing factor and, if Marriott enhances this benefit, may be a the benefit it once was.

I am still shocked that people would pay money to convert their Marriott weeks into MR points. The ONLY reason I could see doing that is if your Interval account has too many deposits and you cannot find a way to use them for 2-3 years. Otherwise, the conversions are terrible. Remember, it takes 30,000 MR points to stay at your Standard, Basic Marriott hotel for 1 night. So, if your MR timeshare gives you 125,000 points (as an example), that is 4 nights. If your TS costs $1000/year plus the fee to convert, how do you justify paying over $250/night for basic Marriott hotels. I hope people are using them to stay in New York or Hawaii, because otherwise, they are getting a terrible deal.

Hilton is every worse. It takes 80,000 points per night to stay at the Grand W on Maui. That means that a Platinum week in Hawaii from HGVC might get you 1 night at their top of the line hote.

 

[SueDonJ]

I am still shocked that people would pay money to convert their Marriott weeks into MR points. The ONLY reason I could see doing that is if your Interval account has too many deposits and you cannot find a way to use them for 2-3 years. Otherwise, the conversions are terrible. Remember, it takes 30,000 MR points to stay at your Standard, Basic Marriott hotel for 1 night. So, if your MR timeshare gives you 125,000 points (as an example), that is 4 nights. If your TS costs $1000/year plus the fee to convert, how do you justify paying over $250/night for basic Marriott hotels. I hope people are using them to stay in New York or Hawaii, because otherwise, they are getting a terrible deal.

Hilton is every worse. It takes 80,000 points per night to stay at the Grand W on Maui. That means that a Platinum week in Hawaii from HGVC might get you 1 night at their top of the line hote.

Granted, exchanging for MRP is not the value it once was, but using MRP isn't restricted to only nightly usage. The exchange rate is much more favorable if you use the travel packages that include 5-night MVCI or 7-night hotel stays and air miles.

I think like you do that it takes more than one week of timeshare to get the most value out of MRP use, and that if you are accumulating MRP only through exchanging your timeshare week(s) then it's difficult to justify the benefit. But many multi-week MVCI owners also use the Marriott VISA card to accumulate points that, combined with the exchanges and direct purchase incentives (which, granted, are also not as good as they once were), have resulted in some fantastic first-class trips which would not have been taken otherwise.

 

[Rush]

Please see below for embedded questions:

Here's my interpretation of the new MVCD (Marriott Vacation Club Destinations) from all the rumors (and my input):

Release date: June 21,2010

For existing week based owners (Legacy):

Costs:

• $595 for lifetime membership of one week
• $695 for lifetime membership of multi-weeks

[Rush] First of all, thanks for this, Perry - and for all of your valued thoughts / insights...

If my plan were to convert 1 of my 3 weeks to points [so that I can break it up into days, and add them to my other 2 weeks], and "keep" the other two - one of which is a fixed /platinum plus week - would fellow TUGers agree that it would make sense for me to nonetheless purchase the multi-week membership - given not only the anticipated difference b/w the 2 memberships being only $100, but also, given that, as I understand it, as per below, we'll be able to decide annually what to do w each of our weeks? Or, would I appear to be missing something...


Membership is nontransferable when week(s) resold.

Deed's are NOT turned in to Marriott. Owner decides annually (don't know when that starts) either to use their unit as a Legacy unit or to relinquish unit to MVCD in exchange for one-time Points in the MVCD system. The number of Legacy Points received is a generic number for the season within resort turned in and varies each year.

No banking and no borrowing of Legacy generated Points.

MVCD Point Sales:

100% Points oriented which come from a Master Trust of Deeds. Points are generated annually (don't know when that starts) and can:

• Be banked one year forward
• Be borrowed from next year's usage
• Be transferred from account to account allowing Points renting to take place (10% probability of happening)
• Be converted into MRPs or Ritz-Carlton Points or other Marriott business Points

Points can be resold with a loss of some developer goodies; perhaps reverting to Legacy Points but without a deed.

Legacy generated Points have access to all inventory as of 6/21/10 but NO access to any new units added after that.

MVCD system:

• No home advantage
• Access to ALL units in system
• 12 month reservations for one reservation
• 13 month reservations require consecutive or concurrent usage by same owner
• 59-day specials at reduced Points
• Gifting reservation allowed for a fee
• No renting of reservations
• Points turned in for II generic reservation to exchange

[Rush] Any thoughts / info re how far in advance one will be able to book individual dates to tack onto, say, a weeklong reservation?

I recall there being speculation that the window for booking individual days might be shorter than to book a week...

 

[DanCali]

If you trade you Marriott into II for non-Marriott properties, it would seem that points are not the way to go. If you trade into Marriott properties only, then points are good as long as you do not have additional II fees.

If you trade into Marriott properties but your Platinum 2BR cannot get a 2BR with points to places you exchange to (e.g. Hawaii or Caribbean trades) - you're still better off not converting - unless you want to buy more points too...

I think the powerful Platinum weeks at ski resorts, DSV, MCV, HHI, NCV and even Orlando will continue to do well in II for years to come.

 

[DanCali]

It could be that all the exchange fee's and Interval membership fee's are included in any membership fee and that there are no internal exchange fee's.

This is how it is with Starwood too - $109 fee for 1 VOI, about $140 for 2 or more. Includes II membership and unlimited points exchanges (subject to an occasional housekeeping fee if the number of exchanges exceed the units you own post lockoffs)

Weeks owners (voluntary resorts resale owners) pay for II separately since they are not part of the "Vacation Network".

 

[PerryM]

Please see below for embedded questions:

My advice to all here is to wait until we have our little paws on the documents and no longer have to guess what to do.

There are so many unanswered questions that I can't say for sure what I will do.

 

[RedDogSD]

If you trade into Marriott properties but your Platinum 2BR cannot get a 2BR with points to places you exchange to (e.g. Hawaii or Caribbean trades) - you're still better off not converting - unless you want to buy more points too...

I think the powerful Platinum weeks at ski resorts, DSV, MCV, HHI, NCV and even Orlando will continue to do well in II for years to come.

That assumes that the Hawaii and Caribbean people ever deposit to II. Otherwise, it will be such a crapshoot for us DSV, MCV, HHI, NCV, etc owners that depositing to Interval might not make sense. If we want guaranteed Hawaii, we may have to pony up for more points.

I can't imagine why the people with Hawaii will ever deposit to II other than wanting to get outside of the Marriott system. Like I said earlier, here is hoping that they want to go to Vermont, Oregon, etc because Marriott has covered a lot of the map.

 

[KarenP]

Combining Marriott Reward Points possible?

Do any of you think we'll be able to combine the new Marriott system points with our Marriott Rewards points?

 

[GregT]

I can't imagine why the people with Hawaii will ever deposit to II other than wanting to get outside of the Marriott system. Like I said earlier, here is hoping that they want to go to Vermont, Oregon, etc because Marriott has covered a lot of the map.

In my discussions with a sales rep, he was pretty non-committal about the new system, but he did indicate that he thought it would not be possible to lock-off my unit and deposit the lock-off into the points system. And that the lock-off would have to go to II. This was something I'd hoped for in the new system because it would be a great opportunity to build points in a new system from my lock-off.

If this is the case, then I think you will see alot of lock-off inventory going into II, from people who are using their 1BR for personal use. The question is whether people who don't always use the 1BR for personal use will continue to use II to deposit their 1BR or elect the point system.

As we have surmised before, I suspect this will significantly reduce the availability in II, and may also result in an increase in Direct Exchanges.

All the best,

Greg

 

[sparty]

Here's my interpretation of the new MVCD (Marriott Vacation Club Destinations) from all the rumors (and my input):

Release date: June 21,2010

For existing week based owners (Legacy):

Costs:

• $595 for lifetime membership of one week
• $695 for lifetime membership of multi-weeks

Membership is nontransferable when week(s) resold.

Will I convert our one Gold Summit Watch - probably not.

Just a WAG.

The simple truth is just that - savy owners of high demand platinum weeks will not participate.. Pretty much my plan.. Either go to Barony Beach Ocean Side in summer or rent it on my own. Either go to Orlando Spring break, week 52, or rent it on my own... Current Hawaii week 52 owners (most? hawaii owners) use or rent but don't trade, cost/benefit of trading just doesn't make sense.

And the thought of ever giving the deed to Marriott? HAH!

 

[eileenpat]

Truth or Rumor

I have been following this discussion for the past few weeks: Question that I have is how factual is the information? A close friend works for Marriott timeshares and when we discussed this the conclusion was that the rumors were greater than the actual truth. I appreciate all the information that has been accumulated here, but I feel like a panic going to settle in if Marriott goes through with this on the 20th to be effective on the 21st! We own 3 Marriott weeks and I will be booking on the 24 at one of my home resorts. I really do hope that I do not have a problem!

When speaking with an interval representative, they did confirm that trades this year are difficult due to the lack of available units. A manager at one of the Marriott timeshares, told me the same thing. He said that he was very frustrated with the lack of available units for exchange.

I am going to try to think positive and hope for the best. I will say that if you try to reach Marriott via your assigned representative, it is very difficult! I had to wait for her to get back to me ...2 days! She was very sorry but said that the call volume had increased to record numbers in the past few weeks!

Let's hope this works for all of us!

 

[PerryM]

The simple truth is just that - savy owners of high demand platinum weeks will not participate.. Pretty much my plan.. Either go to Barony Beach Ocean Side in summer or rent it on my own. Either go to Orlando Spring break, week 52, or rent it on my own... Current Hawaii week 52 owners (most? hawaii owners) use or rent but don't trade, cost/benefit of trading just doesn't make sense.

And the thought of ever giving the deed to Marriott? HAH!

Over the years I've bumped into MANY Marriott owners who own 4+ weeks and these are Platinum Plus weeks they bought from Marriott at close to $175,000 - they were buying an alternative to a 2nd home.

For $695 they will ALL convert - what's the downside - they still have their deeds and can use them the normal way or deposit some and try the new system out.

I see this as a wildly successful program and that $695 will quickly increase in price in days to weeks.

I believe Marriott has done an excellent job of handling 400,000 owners and start a new path to selling Points.

Really, from all the latest rumors they sound like they aren't about to make mistakes many developers have made in similar situations.

But Marriott is now thinking Points and they will do many things to get us to buy Points in addition to keeping what we have that they can use to their benefit.

For example:
You own 4 Platinum weeks and are classified as a Legacy Points Account - Marriott tells you that you can buy 10,000 Points, for $25,000 and merge those 4 weeks into the account and all will be treated as a Marriott sold Points account which is much better to have.

Folks will buy into the above without a problem.

P.S.
I look at what's in front of me, do some analysis, and try to make plans and when new information is presented I iterate and iterate and iterate.

 

[TheTimeTraveler]

Over the years I've bumped into MANY Marriott owners who own 4+ weeks and these are Platinum Plus weeks they bought from Marriott at close to $175,000 - they were buying an alternative to a 2nd home.

For $695 they will ALL convert - what's the downside - they still have their deeds and can use them the normal way or deposit some and try the new system out.

I see this as a wildly successful program and that $695 will quickly increase in value in days to weeks.

I believe Marriott has done an excellent job of handling 400,000 owners and start a new path to selling Points.

Really, from all the latest rumors they sound like they aren't about to make mistakes many developers have made in similar situations.

But Marriott is now thinking Points and they will do many things to get us to buy Points in addition to keeping what we have that they can use to their benefit.

P.S.
I look at what's in front of me, do some analysis, and try to make plans and when new information is presented I iterate and iterate and iterate.

.


Perry, I am shocked that you are suddenly complimenting Marriott on the transformation to the point program. Never thought I would hear this coming from you!



.

 

[PerryM]

.


Perry, I am shocked that you are suddenly complimenting Marriott on the transformation to the point program. Never thought I would hear this coming from you!



.

I trade stocks and have for 20+ years. One minute I'm long a stock and 30 minutes later I can have sold that stock and be short that stock.

I simply look at what's in front of me and try to analyze it.

I really believe there are 2 types of people 1) Static and 2) Dynamic.

I'm a dynamic person and make decisions on current information and my impression of that data.

If the rumors turn out to be true this is not my worst case scenario but almost a best case scenario.

P.S.
Of course I can change my analysis if the facts turn out to be not even close to the rumors.

 

[DanCali]

That assumes that the Hawaii and Caribbean people ever deposit to II. Otherwise, it will be such a crapshoot for us DSV, MCV, HHI, NCV, etc owners that depositing to Interval might not make sense. If we want guaranteed Hawaii, we may have to pony up for more points.

I can't imagine why the people with Hawaii will ever deposit to II other than wanting to get outside of the Marriott system. Like I said earlier, here is hoping that they want to go to Vermont, Oregon, etc because Marriott has covered a lot of the map.

Yes, what you say makes sense. But not all owners act in an optimal manner.

In the Starwood world, MFs in Hawaii (WKORV, WPORV) are about $2500 for a 2BR. The MFs for a 2BR at Harborside are about $3000. One would argue those owners should never deposit into II because they are better off renting or using or making an internal exchange... II will always be a trade down. Yet many units still make it to II.

I do expect inventory in II to go down. But I also expect competition for the remaining units to decrease as well as people will join the points program... So in the end I don't think one will see much difference.

 

[l2trade]

I have been following this discussion for the past few weeks: Question that I have is how factual is the information? A close friend works for Marriott timeshares and when we discussed this the conclusion was that the rumors were greater than the actual truth. I appreciate all the information that has been accumulated here, but I feel like a panic going to settle in if Marriott goes through with this on the 20th to be effective on the 21st! We own 3 Marriott weeks and I will be booking on the 24 at one of my home resorts. I really do hope that I do not have a problem!

When speaking with an interval representative, they did confirm that trades this year are difficult due to the lack of available units. A manager at one of the Marriott timeshares, told me the same thing. He said that he was very frustrated with the lack of available units for exchange.

I am going to try to think positive and hope for the best. I will say that if you try to reach Marriott via your assigned representative, it is very difficult! I had to wait for her to get back to me ...2 days! She was very sorry but said that the call volume had increased to record numbers in the past few weeks!

Let's hope this works for all of us!

In the past, Marriott entrusted II to manage a ton of developer owned & unsold inventory. Marriott owns many, many weeks that in the past helped to seed the massive II exchange bank. Now, those weeks, which Marriott OWNS and PAYS FOR will go into the TRUST and be available via the points system. To what extent this hinders the availability and ease of trade within II to another Marriott is anyone's guess at this point. I predict it will be more difficult, but not impossible. For your home resort, this should be less of a problem, but that all depends on how much inventory in that season Marriott OWNS and what internal rules they follow to select weeks within it. I predict Marriott will not dramatically interfere and reduce the best weeks of home resort season availability at the 13 or 12 month mark. If there is a noticeable decline in home resort availability that far out, owners will be screaming mad. The new system pitch is that legacy owners will see improvements in availability when trying to reserve their home resort.

I am keeping an open mind on these points. There are too many variables that could help or hurt availability under legacy weeks system. Time will tell. However, I TRUST the Marriott brand much more than many of their competitors. I hope and believe that Marriott will not let their massive existing owner base down. As a non-Marriott owner, I think I will not be as fortunate with outcomes from all these changes. Marriott is not doing this to help non-owners like me.

 

[GregT]

In the past, Marriott entrusted II to manage a ton of developer owned & unsold inventory. Marriott owns many, many weeks that in the past helped to seed the massive II exchange bank. Now, those weeks, which Marriott OWNS and PAYS FOR will go into the TRUST and be available via the points system. To what extent this hinders the availability and ease of trade within II to another Marriott is anyone's guess at this point. I predict it will be more difficult, but not impossible. For your home resort, this should be less of a problem, but that all depends on how much inventory in that season Marriott OWNS and what internal rules they follow to select weeks within it. I predict Marriott will not dramatically interfere and reduce the best weeks of home resort season availability at the 13 or 12 month mark. If there is a noticeable decline in home resort availability that far out, owners will be screaming mad. The new system pitch is that legacy owners will see improvements in availability when trying to reserve their home resort.

I am keeping an open mind on these points. There are too many variables that could help or hurt availability under legacy weeks system. Time will tell. However, I TRUST the Marriott brand much more than many of their competitors. I hope and believe that Marriott will not let their massive existing owner base down. As a non-Marriott owner, I think I will not be as fortunate with outcomes from all these changes. Marriott is not doing this to help non-owners like me.

I agree with these points, and believe that Marriott places tremendous value on their brand -- plus as we have seen from rough numbers, the financial numbers to Marriott are impressive -- and these would be stable, recurring cash flows. I am also expecting that Marriott will permit current resale and future resale owners to participate without penalty (just pay the $595 fee to join, and pay $169 per year), which also helps feed the inventory availability for points sales.

I continue to believe that the owners of high demand/sold-out units will see significantly premium "point allocations" to entice us to make our units available. I'm speculating that a 3BR at MOC may have 2X the point allocation of a 2BR on the mainland and a 2BR at MOC will also have a similar significant points premium to entice those owners to participate. Not sure what to think about Ko Olina though, they may moderate the points requirements as an enticement to show that points really can get you to Hawaii/Oahu (if Maui is out of reach).

It's going to be a major handicap however if legacy points can not be banked for a future year and only be used in current year or transferred to MRPs. I'm watching closely to see what the program does for this.

This will be very interesting to watch!

Best to all,

Greg

 

[catharsis]

I agree with these points, and believe that Marriott places tremendous value on their brand -- plus as we have seen from rough numbers, the financial numbers to Marriott are impressive -- and these would be stable, recurring cash flows. I am also expecting that Marriott will permit current resale and future resale owners to participate without penalty (just pay the $595 fee to join, and pay $169 per year), which also helps feed the inventory availability for points sales.

It's going to be a major handicap however if legacy points can not be banked for a future year and only be used in current year or transferred to MRPs. I'm watching closely to see what the program does for this.

This will be very interesting to watch!

Best to all,

Greg

Has anyone considered that Marriott may be 'forced' to charge more than we think (albeit perhaps after a low 'initial offer') to allow people to convert to points based upon the fact that there are Marriott customers out there who have paid US$5K for the privilege of converting their Phuket Week to Marriott Asia Points?
Surely the owners who elected to do that will be less than impressed if converting to points now costs only 595 (and presumable AP and MVCD will be merged?)

 

[winger]

Skeptical speculation

OK, how about this -

I am a bit worried that Marriott will charge low fees upfront (exchanges, annual dues, whatever)...just to lure legacy owners and new owners into the new system. Basically, Marriott would be subsidizing these fee(s).

A few years down the line when the new system is up and running with adequate membership/units, the Marriott subsidy(s) goes away - result => larger fee(s), maybe much larger.

This is (what I believe happens) similar to what Marriott has done in the past (and current?) when they build new resorts - subsidize the annual MF's, to keep the first few years' of MF's low, to entice new owners. Once the resort is near sellout, the subsidy goes away and owners are saddles with the higher MF's.

Sorry, for the negative thought, but maybe I've been drinking the Perry-coolaid today : )

 

[PerryM]

OK, how about this -

I am a bit worried that Marriott will charge low fees upfront (exchanges, annual dues, whatever)...just to lure legacy owners and new owners into the new system. Basically, Marriott would be subsidizing these fee(s).

A few years down the line when the new system is up and running with adequate membership/units, the Marriott subsidy(s) goes away - result => larger fee(s), maybe much larger.

This is (what I believe happens) similar to what Marriott has done in the past (and current?) when they build new resorts - subsidize the annual MF's, to keep the first few years' of MF's low, to entice new owners. Once the resort is near sellout, the subsidy goes away and owners are saddles with the higher MF's.

Sorry, for the negative thought, but maybe I've been drinking the Perry-coolaid today : )

What's your Point?

Of course Marriott will use step pricing and the low, low intro pricing will go up.

How high and how fast will simply be left to the owners - the frequency and intensity of conversions will drive prices up until they cool and prices will be held there for a while.

My initial guess of $2,500 to convert could easily be met - not day one but year 2.

I believe the hot-shot salesreps are going to be selling Points and the new guy will handle the Points conversion.

But who knows how Marriott will market this - just 3 days and the guessing stops