T_R_Oglodyte
TUG Lifetime Member
Washington was the first area in the US to start to implement social distancing and shelter in place types of activities. That was several weeks ago, and given a 2-3 week incubation period for the virus, that means that results should be starting to show.
Below is a chart from today's (March 26) edition of the Seattle Times, showing confirmed cases over time. It's still early but evidence for effectiveness might be there. A few weeks ago, around 3/8, you see the curve progressively steeping. That's an exponential growth curve. But you can see the steepness of the curve diminish during the week of 3/8 - in fact it's almost linear before starting to accelerate again during the week of 3/15. And now we have data though 3/25.
But what is potentially significant is that between 3/15 and 3/22 the increase in cases was about 175/day. Over the last three days, the increase in cases has been 195 cases/day, While that's a slight increase from the prior week, there is a lot of "slop" in the data, so those are essentially the same number. (And, equally, that could indicate that the exponential growth phase is resuming.) If these are the same number, though, that is an arithmetic increase, not an exponential increase. More significantly, if the upward bending and accelerating trend from 3/1 to 3/15 had continued, my eyeball guess is that we would be somewhere between 5,000 and 10,000 cases.
What happens the rest of this week will be telling. If we're tracking Italy and Spain, the recent days will have just been a blip and the numbers are about to explode. If they stay down, then I think that indicates that strategies short of full quarantine may be helping to manage the curve.
What happens the rest of this week here in Washington will be telling and will have a direct impact on strategies that are followed throughout the world. If the curve reverts to some form of exponential increase, that means that far stronger measures than have been taken in Washington will be needed. If the arithmetic (or linear) increase continues, then stricter forms of social distancing than those implemented in Washington will be needed. And if the curve flattens then we will know those measures are effective, but implementing stricter measures will be needed to collapse the curve.
Stay safe and stay healthy everyone.
Below is a chart from today's (March 26) edition of the Seattle Times, showing confirmed cases over time. It's still early but evidence for effectiveness might be there. A few weeks ago, around 3/8, you see the curve progressively steeping. That's an exponential growth curve. But you can see the steepness of the curve diminish during the week of 3/8 - in fact it's almost linear before starting to accelerate again during the week of 3/15. And now we have data though 3/25.
But what is potentially significant is that between 3/15 and 3/22 the increase in cases was about 175/day. Over the last three days, the increase in cases has been 195 cases/day, While that's a slight increase from the prior week, there is a lot of "slop" in the data, so those are essentially the same number. (And, equally, that could indicate that the exponential growth phase is resuming.) If these are the same number, though, that is an arithmetic increase, not an exponential increase. More significantly, if the upward bending and accelerating trend from 3/1 to 3/15 had continued, my eyeball guess is that we would be somewhere between 5,000 and 10,000 cases.
What happens the rest of this week will be telling. If we're tracking Italy and Spain, the recent days will have just been a blip and the numbers are about to explode. If they stay down, then I think that indicates that strategies short of full quarantine may be helping to manage the curve.
What happens the rest of this week here in Washington will be telling and will have a direct impact on strategies that are followed throughout the world. If the curve reverts to some form of exponential increase, that means that far stronger measures than have been taken in Washington will be needed. If the arithmetic (or linear) increase continues, then stricter forms of social distancing than those implemented in Washington will be needed. And if the curve flattens then we will know those measures are effective, but implementing stricter measures will be needed to collapse the curve.
Stay safe and stay healthy everyone.
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