ROFR metric / Ongoing ROFR Activity

[JIMinNC]

Thank you this is very helpful. Since $9500 and $11,000did not pass, I may have to be closer to $3.00 per point. I wonder if there is any value to trying $11,000 again?

That's the age-old question. Despite my attempts to put some science behind ROFR, navigating it is still more of an art than a science. I would simply say if there are a lot of KoOlina properties out there on the market, it doesn't hurt to try and try again, or move your price up gradually. If what you are looking for is hard to find and getting what you want is more important than getting the lowest possible price, I might be inclined to move closer to a $3/pt price more rapidly.

 

[vacationtime1]

I don't have time to do a more detailed look, but I think the problem with just looking at the last few months is not enough data. There are only 66 ROFR.net submissions since May 1. Of those, 41 Failed ROFR and only 25 passed, a pass rate of only 38%.

The problem is, there were only 2 submissions at an over $3/point valuation (both passed), and only 12 total submissions over $2/point (including the two $3+). So, here is what that very limited data shows:

$3/point or more: 2 TOTAL -- 2 pass; 0 fail --100% pass
$2/point or more: 12 TOTAL -- 7 pass; 5 fail -- 58% pass
Between $2/pt & $3/Pt -- 10 TOTAL -- 5 pass; 5 fail ---50% pass

So that reinforces that the odds improve over $3/point. But the data set is so small, I'm not sure it is meaningful.

Below is the raw data. Sorry for the eye test.

View attachment 8057

I thought there would be insufficient data, especially because you are trying to track trends that may have started only recently. That's why I suggested that you will have a better data set next year -- as Marriott's current game plan plays out (assuming Marriott even has a game plan, but that is another question entirely).

 

[LUVourMarriotts]

For points purchases, I believe, just based on threads I have read about pass/fail, that the number of points in the transaction is also a contributing factor to the price point. For instance, there is someone on a FB group trying to sell 6500 points. I would guess that a lower price, say $3, would potentially pass on that transaction, because Marriott would need to shell out $19,500 to buy it, or they could pass it and make $19,500 from the transfer fee. I know $19,500 is chump change to them, but they are probably getting several ROFR requests daily. Using that same $3, I'd guess 1000 points is going to fail, because Marriotts expense is much lower.

Total guesstimate here.

 

[JIMinNC]

For points purchases, I believe, just based on threads I have read about pass/fail, that the number of points in the transaction is also a contributing factor to the price point. For instance, there is someone on a FB group trying to sell 6500 points. I would guess that a lower price, say $3, would potentially pass on that transaction, because Marriott would need to shell out $19,500 to buy it, or they could pass it and make $19,500 from the transfer fee. I know $19,500 is chump change to them, but they are probably getting several ROFR requests daily. Using that same $3, I'd guess 1000 points is going to fail, because Marriotts expense is much lower.

Total guesstimate here.

That's a very intriguing theory, and one I hadn't considered. It makes sense that the ROFR decision might take into consideration the money they can make by letting it go through instead.

But as I thought about it, it made me sorta wonder why Marriott would exercise ROFR on ANY points purchase? Every points ROFR they exercise is costing them $3/point of pure profit that they don't get, PLUS the exercise price. In a sense, it is a double whammy of cost plus forgone revenue. Intriguing.

 

[Fasttr]

That's a very intriguing theory, and one I hadn't considered. It makes sense that the ROFR decision might take into consideration the money they can make by letting it go through instead.

But as I thought about it, it made me sorta wonder why Marriott would exercise ROFR on ANY points purchase? Every points ROFR they exercise is costing them $3/point of pure profit that they don't get, PLUS the exercise price. In a sense, it is a double whammy of cost plus forgone revenue. Intriguing.

If you assume 40% of sales price is eaten up by marketing costs, at an average sales price of $11 per point, that nets them down to approx $7 per point less a ROFR price of say $4 to acquire the points, nets them approx the same $3 per point.

 

[Fasttr]

For points purchases, I believe, just based on threads I have read about pass/fail, that the number of points in the transaction is also a contributing factor to the price point. For instance, there is someone on a FB group trying to sell 6500 points. I would guess that a lower price, say $3, would potentially pass on that transaction, because Marriott would need to shell out $19,500 to buy it, or they could pass it and make $19,500 from the transfer fee. I know $19,500 is chump change to them, but they are probably getting several ROFR requests daily. Using that same $3, I'd guess 1000 points is going to fail, because Marriotts expense is much lower.

Total guesstimate here.

Or the flip argument would be that MVC May prefer (cost per point being equal) to do one deal at 6500 points than 6.5 deals at 1000 points just to minimize closing costs and other administrative cost to complete the purchase.

 

[NYFLTRAVELER]

Hello. I believe I’ve seen it before.... where can I find the chart for the conversion value of a fixed week to DP. For example I know a Cypress Harbor “sport season”week converts to 1975 DP Points.....

Thank you.

 

[Fasttr]

Hello. I believe I’ve seen it before.... where can I find the chart for the conversion value of a fixed week to DP. For example I know a Cypress Harbor “sport season”week converts to 1975 DP Points.....

Thank you.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fbFUDNeQFORFJxzlWufN5LoXo9b9eJhegQ326PFHBP8/htmlview

 

[catharsis]

Passed at $4750 on an EOY PLat Timber Lodge 2Bed Ski week (not a surprise)
failed on a GV Plat 2B EOY under $1000
passed (!) on a GRC 1Bedroom fractional - I'm awaiting visibility of the actual ROFR waiver in my hand before posting details in case I 'jinx' it!

 

[frank808]

Passed at $4750 on an EOY PLat Timber Lodge 2Bed Ski week (not a surprise)
failed on a GV Plat 2B EOY under $1000
passed (!) on a GRC 1Bedroom fractional - I'm awaiting visibility of the actual ROFR waiver in my hand before posting details in case I 'jinx' it!

Please post what your grand residence passes at. Was this a 1br that locks off or just a standard 1br unit? Thanks

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[StevenTing]

I'm so late to the recent conversation.

For Ko Olina, a number of years ago a 2BR OV was passing around $12k. I like to use the 30% figure that was mentioned a long time ago by GregT. When I bought my KO unit, it was $49644 before discounts. 30% of that puts it around $14,893. Using the Points measurement of 4950 points x the currently $11 price ($14 with 20$ discount) that puts you at $54450. And 30% of that comes out to $16,335.

If it were me, I'd try between the $14.9k and $16.3k figure for best shots at Ko Olina. You might be over paying a little but it's still better than what I paid with the developer.

 

[StevenTing]

I think if I were looking to make an offer on a week right now, and if it was a week that I really wanted and one that didn't show up very often, I think I would be inclined to offer at least $3.00 to $3.25 per point based on the DP point value for that week - maybe even $3.50 if I really wanted to increase my chances of passing. I think it's futile to try to analytically find the precise break-point in the ROFR exercise/pass curve as there are so many variables we don't know (i.e. - the accuracy of the data posted on ROFR.net, and whether the price posted was indeed what was submitted by the seller to MVC). I do think we can see that as the price gets over about $3/point, the likelihood of ROFR starts to drop. It may still get ROFR'd, but the odds improve. Similarly, the break point on Destination Points ROFR seems to be in that same $3.25/point to $4.00/point range.

My Maui weeks that I bought mid-2017 came in at $3.24 per point. $34K price and the week would be worth 10500 if I could enroll it.
I sold an Ko Olina EOY for the equivalent of $2.83 per point, if it could be enrolled (2475 Points). However, from a seller stand-point, once you factor in their closing costs, it jumps up to $3.23 per point.

 

[Wahoo]

Just to add to the seeming utter randomness that is Marriott's ROFR process... just received word today that my purchase of a Ko Olina 2br Oceanview (annual) passed at $4,700. I am even more surprised about this one than I was about my 2br Platinum Ocean Pointe that passed last year at $3,801.

Both of these were purchased via eBay (different sellers) from companies that are neither quick nor pleasant to deal with. That said, the price can't be beat. Pure speculation, but I wonder whether Marriott detests dealing with these companies even more than I do, and thus waives ROFR so they don't have to deal with them. My other guess is that perhaps the selling agencies are doing something nefarious with the ROFR request, but it's impossible for me to know since they don't share the details with me despite my requests.

 

[frank808]

Just to add to the seeming utter randomness that is Marriott's ROFR process... just received word today that my purchase of a Ko Olina 2br Oceanview passed at $4,700.

I take it was an eoy ownership or was it an annual unit? Thanks

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[Wahoo]

I take it was an eoy ownership or was it an annual unit? Thanks

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Annual. Will edit above for clarity. Will also post to ROFR.net.

 

[GregT]

Just to add to the seeming utter randomness that is Marriott's ROFR process... just received word today that my purchase of a Ko Olina 2br Oceanview (annual) passed at $4,700. I am even more surprised about this one than I was about my 2br Platinum Ocean Pointe that passed last year at $3,801.

Both of these were purchased via eBay (different sellers) from companies that are neither quick nor pleasant to deal with. That said, the price can't be beat. Pure speculation, but I wonder whether Marriott detests dealing with these companies even more than I do, and thus waives ROFR so they don't have to deal with them. My other guess is that perhaps the selling agencies are doing something nefarious with the ROFR request, but it's impossible for me to know since they don't share the details with me despite my requests.

Any idea if it was a bankruptcy sale? I believe they avoid those like the plague.

Irrespective, congrats on the fantastic deal and hope all is as it appears!

Best,

Greg

 

[Wahoo]

Any idea if it was a bankruptcy sale? I believe they avoid those like the plague.

Irrespective, congrats on the fantastic deal and hope all is as it appears!

Best,

Greg

Not sure. My Ocean Pointe purchase did not seem to be judging from the deed and other paperwork I was able to see, but don't know the seller details about this Ko Olina one yet.

 

[mjm1]

That is a great price. About the same as what we paid but ours was definitely a bankruptcy situation.
Congratulations.

Best regards.

Mike

 

[frank808]

Now that is a steal at $4700 annual OV mko.

Annual. Will edit above for clarity. Will also post to ROFR.net.

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[taterhed]

See? All you can do is make offers and hope.
Great buy.

 

[magicjourney]

Did a quick search on ebay, but didn't find the auction you referred to in the past three months.
Just be careful there is a notorious group from Tennessee under different user ids selling many premier timeshares at very low price, but people have to fight to get money back at the end. There was a long tug thread on this.

Just to add to the seeming utter randomness that is Marriott's ROFR process... just received word today that my purchase of a Ko Olina 2br Oceanview (annual) passed at $4,700. I am even more surprised about this one than I was about my 2br Platinum Ocean Pointe that passed last year at $3,801.

Both of these were purchased via eBay (different sellers) from companies that are neither quick nor pleasant to deal with. That said, the price can't be beat. Pure speculation, but I wonder whether Marriott detests dealing with these companies even more than I do, and thus waives ROFR so they don't have to deal with them. My other guess is that perhaps the selling agencies are doing something nefarious with the ROFR request, but it's impossible for me to know since they don't share the details with me despite my requests.

 

[amy241]

Thank you, this is very helpful.

I'm so late to the recent conversation.

For Ko Olina, a number of years ago a 2BR OV was passing around $12k. I like to use the 30% figure that was mentioned a long time ago by GregT. When I bought my KO unit, it was $49644 before discounts. 30% of that puts it around $14,893. Using the Points measurement of 4950 points x the currently $11 price ($14 with 20$ discount) that puts you at $54450. And 30% of that comes out to $16,335.

If it were me, I'd try between the $14.9k and $16.3k figure for best shots at Ko Olina. You might be over paying a little but it's still better than what I paid with the developer.

 

[amy241]

Wow, they exercised on my offers of 9,500 and 11,000. Which EBay company did you work with and did you have to pay the full amount when the auction ended? It seems like many want the full amount paid immediately and do not use escrow.

Just to add to the seeming utter randomness that is Marriott's ROFR process... just received word today that my purchase of a Ko Olina 2br Oceanview (annual) passed at $4,700. I am even more surprised about this one than I was about my 2br Platinum Ocean Pointe that passed last year at $3,801.

Both of these were purchased via eBay (different sellers) from companies that are neither quick nor pleasant to deal with. That said, the price can't be beat. Pure speculation, but I wonder whether Marriott detests dealing with these companies even more than I do, and thus waives ROFR so they don't have to deal with them. My other guess is that perhaps the selling agencies are doing something nefarious with the ROFR request, but it's impossible for me to know since they don't share the details with me despite my requests.

 

[taterhed]

Hmmm Sounds like a Yoda line.....

"Pay me now....regret you later"

 

[Wahoo]

Hmmm Sounds like a Yoda line.....

"Pay me now....regret you later"

Agreed, and I am approaching it with eyes wide open. I paid via credit card, so if need be can file a dispute with the card company. I was similarly skeptical with my Ocean Pointe purchase in 2017. Thought it might be a scam. Was unimpressed with the communication from the company. At many points almost pulled the trigger to file a dispute with my credit card company, but remained patient. After about 3 months of me pestering them every week or two, the deal finally closed, deed recorded, and the week showed up appropriately in my MVC account. Traveled to Ocean Pointe using that purchase this Spring, and am headed back again for spring break 2019.

So far the transaction on the Ko Olina week has proceeded in much the same (painfully slow) way as that prior experience. It still remains to be seen whether the deal actually closes and the deed officially records this time. Best case scenario, it does. Worst case scenario, I am out about $5000 (or more likely, have to file a dispute with my credit card company to be made whole). It is a calculated risk that I'm rolling the dice on.