Redweek listings are just sitting online, not many are renting, a new phenomena and a waste of money for owners at $59 for verify/ protect

[4TimeAway]

TUG members are cheapskates, and I know because I fit right in with all of you. I doubt many of you rent on Redweek to use yourselves.

TUG'rs are cheap? I call it value driven....

 

[TolmiePeak]

TUG'rs are cheap? I call it value driven....

I wear the label cheap as a badge of honor.

 

[rickandcindy23]

No these are 2BR for this summer and beyond.

The prices are all over the place. Be honest about it.

 

[buzglyd]

Maybe people are taking shorter vacations and timeshare weeks don’t suit a shorter stay. Due to my 91 MIL living with us, our stays are typically less than a week.

 

[CalGalTraveler]

We own a short term rental in the Tahoe area and it has been a soft summer. July fully booked as that is our money month, but people are booking closer to arrival and not paying as much. With that said, prices spiked during Covid so perhaps that is clouding our perception. This is closer to what it was like pre-Covid.

 

[buzglyd]

We own a short term rental in the Tahoe area and it has been a soft summer. July fully booked as that is our money month, but people are booking closer to arrival and not paying as much. With that said, prices spiked during Covid so perhaps that is clouding our perception. This is closer to what it was like pre-Covid.

I got lucky with my Scottsdale rental. I had someone take the whole month of June and then extend to August 3rd. Normally I just get weekenders in the summer.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

I don't want to be in competition with other owners by reducing my price,

In CEO/CFO-speak, this would generally be considered as "Margin Proud". When it is impossible to turn off the next slug of inventory, and 2% of inventory appears to go obsolete every week, it is quite risky.
I'd LOVE to know what profit margin you're addicted to / targeting, using total cost of transaction.
From my visits to redweek, I see almost nobody trying to transact "at any price". I just went there and I see multiple transactions at that $3500 level, and some people still asking the $5500. So it goes. I assume the $3500 comes when someone drops their price and that gets quickly snatched up. I assume that $3500 is still a nicely profitable transaction for the owner. $5500 / $3500 = huge profit margin, and I get it. I assume I could rent out my HGVC reservations for a huge % profit. But if the margin wasn't up to expectations, I'd adjust.

I just went to tug mktplace. I do not see owners trying to transact "at any price" there either. I see a place in Cabo that has a higher ask than the equiv price on redweek. So it goes.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

in mkt-speak, Bid = $3500 / Ask = $5500 is a sign of a very illiquid security, with illiquid meaning few & fewer transactions
chicken or egg?

 

[WaikikiFirst]

review the Airlines quarterly reports ... The airlines are not filling all the seats as they have been doing since the pandemic ... seeing softness in certain markets ... They see a slowdown in miles flow for the 3rd and 4th quarter

I think this is an over-statement. The US airlines grew their # "Seat Miles" by about 8% Y/Y, in every month from March to last month, June. The # of seat miles actually sold / flown grew by almost 8%, meaning their "load factor" fell by only 1%. So, #Passenger Miles was up 5%+ Y/Y. I know this for UAL, DAL. I saw the Q2 #s. I'm sure the US domestic #s overall were similar.
It is amazing the data you can find on FRED. Here

Available Seat Miles for U.S. Air Carrier Domestic and International, Scheduled Passenger Flights

Graph and download economic data for Available Seat Miles for U.S. Air Carrier Domestic and International, Scheduled Passenger Flights (ASM) from Jan 2000 to May 2024 about flight, miles, passenger, air travel, travel, domestic, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

That is as of March. I guess FRED updates slowly. So as of March, "Available Seat Miles for U.S. Air Carrier Domestic and International, Scheduled Passenger Flights " rose from 107 to 115. Yup, 8%.
and this

Air Revenue Passenger Miles

Graph and download economic data for Air Revenue Passenger Miles (AIRRPMTSID11) from Jan 2000 to Jun 2024 about miles, passenger, air travel, travel, revenue, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

Yup, as of April, miles flown rose from 88.5 to 93.75, up 6%. So the 7% in Q2 was even better than the 6% in April.

They do see a slowdown coming, but partly due to cutting back on that ASM to try to raise prices.

 

[rickandcindy23]

Southwest has constant sales of $59 one-way travel. The flights I need are way higher. I don't generally travel on Tuesdays and Wednesdays, but I can do that going to Orlando, a good way to use some Wyndham points I am paying for anyway, so I will be watching for lower prices.

I did get SEA-DEN for $175 for both of us, and that was a very decent price.

 

[jules54]

The reason I don’t put a rented notification on RedWeek when something rents is because I paid for the ad and want to see the full picture of the traffic. If someone else inquires I try to find the week elsewhere before I tell them it’s rented.

 

[emeryjre]

I think this is an over-statement. The US airlines grew their # "Seat Miles" by about 8% Y/Y, in every month from March to last month, June. The # of seat miles actually sold / flown grew by almost 8%, meaning their "load factor" fell by only 1%. So, #Passenger Miles was up 5%+ Y/Y. I know this for UAL, DAL. I saw the Q2 #s. I'm sure the US domestic #s overall were similar.
It is amazing the data you can find on FRED. Here

Available Seat Miles for U.S. Air Carrier Domestic and International, Scheduled Passenger Flights

Graph and download economic data for Available Seat Miles for U.S. Air Carrier Domestic and International, Scheduled Passenger Flights (ASM) from Jan 2000 to May 2024 about flight, miles, passenger, air travel, travel, domestic, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

That is as of March. I guess FRED updates slowly. So as of March, "Available Seat Miles for U.S. Air Carrier Domestic and International, Scheduled Passenger Flights " rose from 107 to 115. Yup, 8%.
and this

Air Revenue Passenger Miles

Graph and download economic data for Air Revenue Passenger Miles (AIRRPMTSID11) from Jan 2000 to Jun 2024 about miles, passenger, air travel, travel, revenue, and USA.

fred.stlouisfed.org

Yup, as of April, miles flown rose from 88.5 to 93.75, up 6%. So the 7% in Q2 was even better than the 6% in April.

They do see a slowdown coming, but partly due to cutting back on that ASM to try to raise prices.

I did not drill down as deep as you have
I took some statements from the conference call at Delta and United and put them into my own words
I do not trade the airline stocks
Therefore I am not as granular in my assessment
I do get the impression that the airlines will not do as well for the rest of the year because of a slowdown in spending on air travel
From a timeshare rental perspective
I have everything I had available rented
Did not make as big profit this year as I have in the past

 

[jp10558]

In CEO/CFO-speak, this would generally be considered as "Margin Proud". When it is impossible to turn off the next slug of inventory, and 2% of inventory appears to go obsolete every week, it is quite risky.
I'd LOVE to know what profit margin you're addicted to / targeting, using total cost of transaction.
From my visits to redweek, I see almost nobody trying to transact "at any price". I just went there and I see multiple transactions at that $3500 level, and some people still asking the $5500. So it goes. I assume the $3500 comes when someone drops their price and that gets quickly snatched up. I assume that $3500 is still a nicely profitable transaction for the owner. $5500 / $3500 = huge profit margin, and I get it. I assume I could rent out my HGVC reservations for a huge % profit. But if the margin wasn't up to expectations, I'd adjust.

I just went to tug mktplace. I do not see owners trying to transact "at any price" there either. I see a place in Cabo that has a higher ask than the equiv price on redweek. So it goes.

This kind of tracks what I keep seeing on Youtube regarding vehicle prices. Some dealers are discounting RAMs up to 19,000 if you ask, but otherwise they sit there at $75,000 filling up the dealer lots. And the allocations keep coming. Heck, some dealers are sitting there with unsold 2022 inventory at $60,000. IDK - from what I can tell, if the various Youtube people aren't full of crap - but there are all these dealers who don't want to ever cut their losses on a car and price it to sell, even if it's a loss. What's crazier is how this is hitting used car prices, where it sounds like way more brands are where Subaru always was - the 1-3 year old used ones are priced at or within 1K of a brand new one, so ... never made much sense to buy those.

One takeaway that I sadly didn't do in April is to really shop around cause there can be *wild* swings in prices for the same new car between different dealers, especially if you can get different "regions". This is on basic cars like Accords or CRVs, and especially on things like the RAM trucks. Like, 7k...

 

[DeniseM]

IMNSHO, this is not new, rentals have been slow for months, regardless of where you post your Ads.

 

[rickandcindy23]

IMNSHO, this is not new, rentals have been slow for months, regardless of where you post your Ads.

Absolutely. Even Airbnb and VRBO ads are not working for our daughter to rent our Sheratons in Myrtle Beach. She rented about half, and half will be deposited into II for trading purposes. The generic trading power has been diminished by II, but I can still get some decent value from the weeks. I just need to be more flexible with unit size. It seems to take a 2 bedroom to get a 1 bedroom on the islands. I am unimpressed with II lately. No wonder my ongoing searches have been so terrible.

 

[dioxide45]

IMNSHO, this is not new, rentals have been slow for months, regardless of where you post your Ads.

Do you have any opinions as to why that is?

 

[DeniseM]

The economy for some sectors, political uncertainties, airline mechanical difficulties, lingering fears about COVID in areas with lower vaccination rates, to name a few.

 

[bnoble]

There are all of the usual suspects. Inflation. The end of the revenge travel bulge. An increase in relative demand for international travel. And so on.

But there definitely does seem to be a softening all around for domestic leisure travel.

 

[dioxide45]

But did post covid travel ever surpass 2019 volume? I don't think Disney Park attendance ever reached 2019 numbers, did it?

 

[WaikikiFirst]

did post covid travel ever surpass 2019 volume?

sure did if you mean airplane travel. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AIRRPMTSID11

"usual suspects. Inflation. The end of the revenge travel bulge. An increase in relative demand for international travel."
Having gone to Asia for a month or more in 2 of the last 3 summers, I can't imagine spending MORE $s to go someplace in the USA that is not nearly as interesting and generally not as nice. Go to Asia. The FX rates are telling you to.
I just looked at the credit card bill for the card we just used for the large majority of our month+ in Asia. The total $s, considering what we got for those $s, makes me LMAO. We'll see what FX looks like this winter, but I could almost see skipping Hawaii and going to Thailand or somewhere else in Asia.

Philippines recommendations?

 

[Mutt Dutchman]

I am not sure I will try redweek again. I tried it with the pro listing and it was listed for 6 months. Summer week, affordable level compared but nothing. I pulled it down so I could just deposit it.

Maybe it's the resort, location, cost. But I had it under $200/night for a 4 bedroom. Figured someone would go for it.

Next year I will look at tug or just use the resorts rental.

 

[bnoble]

But did post covid travel ever surpass 2019 volume?

I am not sure it did, but that is at least partly due to hard caps on daily attendance---there were several days during my 2022 spring break trip that were completely sold out at all parks. So attendance was probably lower than Orlando visitation would suggest---there were certainly people in Orlando that week that were not in the theme parks but probably wanted to be.

Wait times this summer are lower than they were last summer.

Summer (Still) Is NOT High Crowds Season at Disney World

"It's normally the busiest time of year, but this summer has been slow at Walt Disney World," "Test Track shouldn't go down right as peak season starts," and "the parks should be packed but our

www.disneytouristblog.com

 

[montygz]

Supply and demand says you should cut your prices to rent your units.

One of the reasons inflation is "sticky" is that businesses are loathe to trim prices. No one wants to make less profit, or even take a loss, after raking in profits the past several years.

I've been looking at cars recently, where they have $100K trucks on the lot. The salespeople say they aren't selling now after flying off the lot the past few years. They know why they aren't selling, but the big companies would rather let them sit than admit they are overpriced at slash the price.

Some of this is psychological. It is much more painful to "lose" $100 on a rental than to celebrate the $1,000 gained.

There is no question to me that right now the economy is split between people who have done very well because of inflation and those who have not.

 

[PPAES]

First, I have no sympathy for the people who are renting Disney exchanges. I can tell which ones are exchange rentals. Those summer weeks are sitting online, and I am sure people think it's a sure thing to grab and rent a 2 bedroom for $3,500. I don't like the competition with my own studio DVC rentals, but I digress.

I have weeks listed at Sheraton Broadway, Westin Ka'anapali, and a few other odd weeks, really just SDO and Westin Desert Willow, and some Bonnet Creek and Wyndham Shearwater during times of year that are not blocked for guests. Nothing is renting. This is a year similar to 2020. I can honestly say that my Sheratons are going to be deposited in large numbers for 2024 use year, and I cannot even use this many as exchange, unless I can get the kids to go on more vacations (their names are on a lot of our ownerships).

When weeks rent on Redweek, they are grayed out. Not many are grayed out. Rentals are down this year, is my conclusion. I realize inflation is playing a part. High gas prices, food prices going up, while wages remain stagnant. Vacation or food/ gas/ utilities, people choose what they can afford.

Part of the problem is the outrageous additional money Redweek makes on the back-end of the listing. RW recently put the total amount of the rental with their profit included. If I list my week for $5,000, and Redweek adds $475 that makes a total of $5,475. Redweek is not even paying taxes in Hawaii. I had no idea until recently when a TUG member pointed that out.

They also get the $59 listing fee and $99 out of the total when it rents. Let's just say that I have paid a lot of $59 listing fees lately, and as the rental date gets close, I will have to cancel to get my points or weeks back to use however I can use them. I am losing money at $59 a listing There are no guarantees by RW that your week will rent, I realize that, but what a waste, when the week doesn't rent.

I don't want to be in competition with other owners by reducing my price, and they then have to reduce their price (which you can do anytime on RW or Koala). I see one other listing that is the same as mine, same view, but it's a little lower in price.

Koala also makes money on rentals, but at least I am not out $59 for each one that doesn't rent.

I will probably stop using the RW verified/ protected service. My conclusion is that I can rent myself and save renters money (and me as well).

Too bad Koala is not working better for me. I have two rentals for fall on Koala, however, but not a single DVC rental with RW. I am sure hoping for better results as my dates get near. I can always use David's Rentals as the dates get closer. That is almost a guarantee.

On the renters side, the "verified/protect" AD gives more confidence to them and I understand that agents who work for RW and the portal itself want their cut but I don't think there are too many people in 2024 willing to pay the 9.5% RW fee ($450 as you mentioned) in addition to the unit itself. Of course there are some exceptions such as someone who owns an adjacent week and wants to extend the vacation days, family members looking for a match because relatives have a reservation in place at the same resort, people that knows well the resort and want to go back or whatever but honestly, I think these people belong to a small group. Waive the $99 charge and a 4-5% fee they could get a higher volume in the business.

 

[4TimeAway]

If you look at RCI (HGVC Exchange), SFX, GPX, etc. there are plenty of places you can go last minute for way less than Redweek and less than MFs.

I think the question is compared to what?