i agree with
@Ken555 that this is popcorn-worthy, but I enjoy reading the speculation, though that's all it is. If anyone is spending money based on the speculation, they’re making me think of the old adage about fools and their money.
It seems like, if nothing else, MVCI is going to create an even bigger inventory control nightmare, with usage rights mixed up in so many buckets of ownerships, trusts, possibly-overlapping points programs, etc… I don’t even think this would have been possible until recently, because it’s going to be too complicated for anything but a computer and sophisticated software to keep track of. Those of us who elect to hang on to deeded weeks and not enroll them in anything will find ourselves swimming in a smaller and smaller pool of deeded ownerships as time goes on, but so long as we’re only competing with each other, at least during the Home Resort Reservation Period, I guess that’s ok. It’s a little less clear what happens at 8 months with all the addition of Marriott owners and new overlay programs, we will have to wait and see. A “merger” at some level doesn’t really work unless they equalize or balance demand.
To me, our Vistana resorts are (mostly) a superior product to most or all of the MVC properties. So I can see plenty of MVC owners wanting to get into Vistana resorts without corresponding demand to go the other way. I do not have an overarching desire to get into any of the MVC properties, but I also have spent much time exploring their list, I know they have a lot of them.
At the 1:32 point conversion ratio that’s been suggested, I feel like nearly all the demand would come from the Marriott side. But I think it probably won’t be that simple. MVCI will have to do something more nuanced that assigns different values to different resorts and room types. But then there’s the VSN where the points relationships between the Vistana properties are already well-established. It just seems like it‘s going to be very complex and confusing, and maybe that’s part of what they want. I think a confusing and complex program leads to more unused rooms which MVCI can monetize, while still selling all of the benefits of their complex program – benefits which are real, for those who can figure it all out. So TUG becomes even more important to help people get value out of their ownerships.