All, don't we always do
predictions (that lack any factual basis) when something major is announced?
I would like to make my predictions as follows:
1) Marriott-to-Marriott preference trading via II will remain unchanged (and similar results as the past)
2) Starwood-to-Starwood preference trading via II will remain unchanged (and similar results as the past)
3) Starwood owners will continue to be able to trade to other Starwood properties using StarOptions
4) Starwood owners wishing to book Marriott properties (not via II trade) will need to buy Trust Points (which enrolls the Starwood week)
5) Marriott owners wishing to book Starwood properties (not via II trade) will need to use Trust Points
6) Some Starwood inventory will be deposited into the Trust for WSJ and the four Mexico properties
7) Hyatt properties will only be accessible to Starwood/Marriott owners via II trade
8) II trade fees will continue to increase
9) We will continue to see hotel conversions of Starwood/Marriott properties as the primarily source of new properties
10) Those hotel conversions will be deposited into the Marriott Trust
11) HGVC will become a hot target, as Diamond and Wyndham look to compete with Marriott's planted flag in the high-end space
12) Directly purchased Trust Points (and grandfathered Trust Points) will become valuable
13) There will be an amnesty for post-2010 weeks to be enrolled (for a fee), but time will prove that Elected Points are powerful in the Marriott system and less so for the broader system that is being created.
I do think if anyone is on the fence about buying Trust Points (resale), you should buy them now before the merger is completed. I am speculating, but I believe that Trust Points will be the skeleton key that accesses everything. And that Marriott will discriminate between Directly purchased Trust Points and resale Trust Points -- but will grandfather existing resales, kind of like the pre-2010/post-2010 weeks. Wyndham discriminates between resale points and directly purchased points, and Marriott could too.
This opens up an entire universe of potential Trust Point purchasers to Marriott and they must be salivating like Pavlov's dog. We will see pictures of Westin St. John, Cancun and Cabo San Lucas in every Marriott sales office -- and Starwood sales offices will show Aruba, Newport Coast and the Big Island.
It will be interesting to see how it unfolds. I do not think it will be harmful for us, and there will be benefits if there is a post-2010 amnesty (since now Marriott needs even more Marriott inventory available because of the potential demand). This is all
pure speculation, but this is what I would do if I was designing the system.
Best,
Greg