Susan-
I actually was looking for a bowing down smilie, 'cause I think you deserved one, but I didn't see it.
It was my contention all along that Marriott had an obligation to current owners to continue the privileges under which they purchased. I guess that's why I was so vehement about it. Even if they don't have a legal obligation (which apparently past performance does convey) they have a moral obligation, and acting righteously is always a big issue with me.
Even though you perhaps didn't agree with it, it is uplifting that you are open to other's interpretations.
And, to answer your question- although I didn't maintain that I would definitely buy resale in the future, and in fact could envision that direct purchases would make sense under the right set of circumstances, I think how people will vote will depend largely upon what changes Marriott makes to the resale program. If they follow Starwood's example, as it stands, then I think you will see the same trend as with Starwood owners. There, all owners get to reserve their home resort at 12 months, direct or resale. At 8 months, direct owners can book another resort in the system, releasing their initial reservation if they made one at their home resort. If they want to trade outside of Starwood, they can deposit into II at 12 months, but Starwood selects the week (and even the resort) that is deposited. They can own a premium week and get an off-season week elsewhere as their trader, so their trade value may not be what they actually bought. Resale buyers at some of the resorts (mandatory resorts) reserve and trade the same way. Resale buyers at voluntary resorts can reserve their home resort the same way, but can deposit whatever week they reserve into II. So, although Trooper is right in his contention that some weeks would be released at 8 months by direct owners (as well as resale owners at mandatory resorts), generally the prime weeks are long gone before 6 months.
Thus, if Marriott was to restrict future resale purchasers from reserving at their home resort until 6 months beforehand, I think the value of future resale weeks will be next to nill, because assuredly all the prime weeks would be gone. If resale purchasers could reserve at the same time at their home resort (akin to the Starwood system), but are just limited to how they exchange, then I think you will see many people still interested in resales if they primarily want to use their home resort, and be more interested in developer purchases if they want increased trade ability. Again like Starwood, I think prices would decline for resales that don't enjoy the same flexibility into trading into other Marriotts (like prices at their voluntary resorts).
But- IF Marriott was to exclude future resale purchasers from an internal trading system and/or restrict their reservation ability, I personally think that the resale prices would plummet more than with Starwood, because of Starwood's other policies. Of course, that's my opinion.
So whether people would rethink their stance as whether to buy resale or not I think depends on large part what Marirott decides to do, what the future costs and cost differentials are and what purchase incentives Marriott offers.
And, while Starwood was used as an example, while I can see benefits to the Starwood reservation system, I can see a lot of drawbacks too. I think a very major one is that Marriott owners are used to being able to deposit what they reserve, and would be crazed if they wanted to trade in II and was assigned an off season week when they reserved a 4th of July week originally, for example. But that hopefully won't be a topic that we will be discussing down the road; hopefully whatever internal trading program that Marriott might adopt (if they actually do adopt) will take the best parts from all programs, as well as include the ability for people to firm up their plans a year in advance so that they can avail themselves of FF tickets, etc.