Interesting Exchange Data from Advisor

[GregT]

Interesting and informative post.

There's clearly a difference between the color coding you posted above, which is resort specific, and the TDI, which is geographic.

Marriott resorts even in overbuilt areas (e.g. Orlando) have the red high demand coding even in lower TDI periods. Which is another way of saying that the cream rises to the top.

So does that mean that I really don't have to worry that much about the TP of the M weeks I deposit with II? or what?

It is an interesting question. I believe the algorithm for maximum trading power isn't changing much from TUG best practice, although we may think differently about how to utilize TDI:

1) Reserve the holiday week (which presumably has most demand) in the best II season (Red).
2) If no holiday, use the TDI chart as the surrogate for which week will be most in demand (but must be in the highest II season - Red)

This is pretty much unchanged.

I think the new information here is that we weren't really thinking about how the seasons that II ascribes to a week may be the real factor in trade power -- and therefore there may be new opportunities that we didn't see before, especially in Gold Weeks.

As an example, Weeks 36-39 at Timber Lodge is Interval Red but they all have TDI's less than 100. Those weeks were probably ignored before, but now that week may have previously unappreciated trade power. In reality, it may be more Pink than Red, but even so, it's got more juice than we thought. They are rated Platinum by Marriott, which may be why they were Red from II?

However, interesting with Shadow Ridge (Enclaves) Gold, which are all II red weeks. Additionally, the Deluxe locks into two 1BRs. That may be an uber-trader because it's II Red year-round -- and you get two highly powered deposits. If you can reserve the highest TDI week in the Gold season, that could be a quality deposit.

I still think 3BRs remain the ultimate traders though, perhaps even a Gold 3BR.

Lots to think about here -- interesting stuff.

All the best,

Greg

 

[jdunn1]

I think what has changed in II for Marriott owners (probably everyone else too?) is that studios no longer pull prime 2 bedrooms. Maybe, just maybe a studio at one of the ski weeks in ski season can pull some 2 bedrooms, but my Willowridge studio certainely doesn't. Last year, even six month ago my Willowridge studio (any summer week) would pull everything my one bedroom would pull in II. Not any more. The one bedroom side still pulls just as well as ever, but not the studio.

Granted, a summer Willowridge studio still pulls 2 bedroom winter Hilton Head weeks, and even 2 bedrooms in the spring at the non-marriott timeshares in Orlando. However, it seems that II has put some kind of block on using your Marriott studio to trade into anything larger within the Marriott system for most resorts/weeks.

Someone with a ski week at Timberlodge chimed into one of these threads to say how her studio was still pulling 2 bedrooms at the Marriots in Orlando for this coming Spring, but my Willowridge 4th of July studio isn't.

 

[taffy19]

All,

Please see II's seasons below -- and compliments (and thanks) to Javanite on the WM board for finding this and sending to me. Please recall that II has color coded the seasons as Red/Yellow/Green -- providing clues to how II views the desirability of different weeks:


Found in II 2009 Directory:

All Weeks RED (Weeks 1-52):

Aruba Ocean Club
Aruba Surf Club
BeachPlace Towers
Canyon Villas
Custom House
Cypress Harbour
Desert Springs Villas (I and II)
Frenchman's Cove
Grande Chateau
Grande Vista
Harbour Lake
Imperial Palm Villas
Kauai Beach Club
Ko Olina
Marbella
Maui Ocean Club
Maui Ocean Club -- Lahaina and Napili
Newport Coast Villas
Ocean Pointe
Ocean Palms
Playa Andaluza
Royal Palms
Sabal Palms
Shadow Ridge (and Enclaves)
St. Kitts
Village Ille de France
Villas at Doral
Waiohai



Horizons by Marriott at Branson
Red 10-52
Yellow 1-9

Grand Residence Club Lake Tahoe
Timber Lodge
Red 1-14, 23-39, 49-52
Yellow 15-22, 40-48

Barony Beach Club
SurfWatch
Grand Ocean
Red 5-48, 51-52
Green 1-4, 49-50

Club Son Antem
Red 5-52
Yellow 1-4

Crystal Shores
Red 1-35, 40-48, 50-52
Yellow 36-39, 48-49

Fairway Villas
Red 13-37, 51-52
Yellow 1-12, 48-50

Harbour Club at Harbour Town
Harbour Point at Shelter Cove
Heritage Club at Harbour Town
Monarch at Sea Pines
Sunset Pointe at Shelter Cove
Red 9-48, 51-52
Yellow 5-8
Green 1-4, 49-50

Legends Edge
Red 7-48, 51-52
Yellow 1-6, 49-50

Mai Khao Beach Club
Red 1-20, 30-34, 39-52
Yellow 21-29, 35-38

Manor Club
Red 9-52
Yellow 1-8

Mountain Valley Lodge
Red 1-15, 21-38, 47-52
Yellow 16, 39-43, 46
Green 17-20, 44-45

MountainSide
Red 1-15, 21-38, 47-42
Yellow 16-20, 39-43, 46
Green 44-45

OceanWatch
Red 9-44, 47
Yellow 1, 5-8, 45-46, 48-49, 51-52
Green 2-4, 50

Phuket
Red 1-20, 39-52
Yellow 21-38

StreamSide
Red 1-15, 21-39, 47-52
Yellow 16, 46
Green 17-20, 40-45

SummitWatch
Red 1-15, 21-38, 47-52
Yellow 16-20, 39-43, 46
Green 44-45

I posted some pictures yesterday but here they are again but not so large. The clearer or larger pictures are here and the next 3 pictures.

Central Florida

West U.S.A.

Midwest U.S.A.

Marriott's Sabal Palms

This resort was referred to in this thread so here is an example.
　
There are no red, yellow and green color tabs on this page like in the II guide of 2004 - 2005.

The guides have the Marriott Vacation Club Logo on the front cover and a picture of one of their resorts. Could it be different for independent resort guides or from other developers?

 

[EKniager]

Klamath Falls, Oregon. One of very many locations that are among the least visited "TDI" areas. BUT, this area has a 150 TDI for weeks 25-33! How is that possible when there aren't even very many places to stay? Is it possible that more people want to go to Klamath falls during weeks 25-33 than Las Vegas? Las Vegas has 35 million visitors per year and even during it's slowest week, there are far more visitors than during Klamath Falls busiest week! Klamath falls couldn't even house the visitors from a single large Vegas hotel! The answer is obviously supply versus demand and not demand alone.

I was going to comment earlier about you not putting any weight on the word "relative" in the II statement. If you go to iconnections pictures you will read another II explanation which should help clarify TDI for you. It says not to compare against other locations. The TDI is "relative only to other weeks in the same vacation area." Oregon and Nevada are in different zones.

If you take average demand within an area and then divide all the demand numbers by the average you can create an index, a relative index, that would have weeks at 150 because they would be significantly higher demand... relative to the average of that specific collection of destinations.

I am assuming they are using the frequency or number of requests for a specific week (within the area) to determine demand. Each week has a number of requests and could be plotted on a chart like the TDI. Dividing by the average helps set the scale units into relative terms.