Interesting Exchange Data from Advisor

[Saintsfanfl]

I still think TDI matters -- but just perhaps as a surrogate or proxy rather than something that is actually a component of the II algorithm.

That's the thing. TDI is a supply and demand index. Supply and demand has a natural effect on the trading and not a forced effect caused by the "formula". This is why great trades can occur but are not the norm. Any forced limitation on trading up by the formula would only defer the income generated for II. They would have nothing to gain. I think everyone is gradually agreeing on the same thing. Supply and demand indicators obviously matter but very well may not be a part of a limitation in trading as far as the II programming is concerned.

 

[Janette]

RCI has answered the value question by assigning trading power units to our weeks(TPU). We can combine all our units if we wish to try for a trade that requires a high TPU(Disney, Manhattan Club, etc). I'm not sure I like it, but we are in a one bedroom at Wyndham Bonnet Creek right now for 9 TPU. My older RCI summer HHI resort gets 24 TPU and my Florida(almost hurricane season) gets 19 TPU. We have picked up a couple of good exchanges but still wonder who determines the TPU as it seems to change. RCI is getting more money(combining weeks, more exchanges, etc) so the jury is out on whether this works. I can go to Disney using two of my HHI weeks. The maintenance for two years is still a little less than my Disney maintenance for one year. Gee, little resorts can't pick up big ones. How unfair is that? I did it for 30 years!

 

[Saintsfanfl]

RCI has answered the value question by assigning trading power units to our weeks(TPU). We can combine all our units if we wish to try for a trade that requires a high TPU(Disney, Manhattan Club, etc). I'm not sure I like it, but we are in a one bedroom at Wyndham Bonnet Creek right now for 9 TPU. My older RCI summer HHI resort gets 24 TPU and my Florida(almost hurricane season) gets 19 TPU. We have picked up a couple of good exchanges but still wonder who determines the TPU as it seems to change. RCI is getting more money(combining weeks, more exchanges, etc) so the jury is out on whether this works. I can go to Disney using two of my HHI weeks. The maintenance for two years is still a little less than my Disney maintenance for one year. Gee, little resorts can't pick up big ones. How unfair is that? I did it for 30 years!

I think if II did that it would be a big mistake and decrease their revenue. It limits potential trades that can no longer occur. The big attraction to trading is potentially getting a very good deal. It leads to less trades and less income.

 

[HenryT]

TDI Does not represent the Resort Value

As some others have alluded to, TDI has very little to do with a given resort. It represents the demand for the area for a given week. It includes all lodging (hotels, etc.) not just timeshares. So it makes sense that all resorts in a given area will have the same TDI value.

Now whether II takes the season into consideration when assigning a value to a deposit; I think they have to. I thought many Tuggers have done trade tests which showed that the season of their deposits made a difference in what exchanges they were able to see for a given resort.

I have done that myself. I have done searches on II with 2 different resorts (Marriott Grand Ocean and Marriott Sunset Pointe). With every thing else being equal (same week, same size unit and same location) I was able to see better units with the Grand Ocean unit. Also I have used a Gold week for the Sunset Pointe unit and a Silver week for the Grand Ocean unit and the Grand Ocean came out ahead again. Finally I have been able to see better exchanges with either resort when I was searching with higher season weeks.

 

[Saintsfanfl]

As some others have alluded to, TDI has very little to do with a given resort. It represents the demand for the area for a given week. It includes all lodging (hotels, etc.) not just timeshares. So it makes sense that all resorts in a given area will have the same TDI value.

Now whether II takes the season into consideration when assigning a value to a deposit; I think they have to. I thought many Tuggers have done trade tests which showed that the season of their deposits made a difference in what exchanges they were able to see for a given resort.

I have done that myself. I have done searches on II with 2 different resorts (Marriott Grand Ocean and Marriott Sunset Pointe). With every thing else being equal (same week, same size unit and same location) I was able to see better units with the Grand Ocean unit. Also I have used a Gold week for the Sunset Pointe unit and a Silver week for the Grand Ocean unit and the Grand Ocean came out ahead again. Finally I have been able to see better exchanges with either resort when I was searching with higher season weeks.

Your last sentence is the only thing being debated in this thread. Everyone agrees the resort matters. We are debating weather the season matters. In order to provide data from a valid test someone needs to attempt a trade from the same resort with two different seasons at the same time and list what was excluded for the lesser season. You say you saw better exchanges with higher season weeks using the same resort but your statement looks like an afterthought on your test.

 

[EKniager]

TDI is a supply and demand index.

I am not sure why you think it takes supply into consideration at all. Think about it. Would February at Aruba Surf Club have had a lower index before all the weeks were sold? The index would have to fluxuate too much with the addition of new properties in the II portfolio.

I would stick with one variable -- Demand. Relative demand likely never changes.

 

[Saintsfanfl]

I am not sure why you think it takes supply into consideration at all. Think about it. Would February at Aruba Surf Club have had a lower index before all the weeks were sold? The index would have to fluxuate too much with the addition of new properties in the II portfolio.

I would stick with one variable -- Demand. Relative demand likely never changes.

TDI? It absolutely takes supply into consideration. Look at the chart. There are two sides. Availability and Demand. There is a reason why Las Vegas does not reach the higher TDI levels for any week during a year. There is way too much supply. If there was all of a sudden only 5000 rooms in Las Vegas the TDI would instantly go off the chart for every week of the year. If more resorts are built in a certain area it lowers that area's TDI.

 

[tjkahn]

TDI? It absolutely takes supply into consideration. Look at the chart. There are two sides. Availability and Demand. There is a reason why Las Vegas does not reach the higher TDI levels for any week during a year. There is way too much supply. If there was all of a sudden only 5000 rooms in Las Vegas the TDI would instantly go off the chart for every week of the year. If more resorts are built in a certain area it lowers that area's TDI.

I disagree. Orlando has max or very high TDI's for many weeks, but you can trade into Orlando any week of the year, likely to a bigger unit. Vegas doesn't max out probably because it will never have off the chart demand for family vacations. Grand Chateau has a limited capacity but it is pretty easy to trade into.

 

[Saintsfanfl]

I disagree. Orlando has max or very high TDI's for many weeks, but you can trade into Orlando any week of the year, likely to a bigger unit. Vegas doesn't max out probably because it will never have off the chart demand for family vacations. Grand Chateau has a limited capacity but it is pretty easy to trade into.

Please explain how there can be availability with no supply. Its impossible. It doesn't matter how low demand is, if supply is still lower, there can be no availability. Now if you are saying the TDI chart is a lie and the availability doesn't mean availability then while that is possible it also renders TDI meaningless and of no more value than the number of visitors to a region.

 

[Saintsfanfl]

Also, Vegas actually has more rooms than Orlando but Orlando has more visitors.

 

[BocaBoy]

Perhaps the following can help:

We have owned with MVCI since before they switched from RCI to Interval 20+ years ago. For a long time the II book showed the "seasons" assigned by II to each resort. They were Red, Yellow, and Green (or something like that). The II book showed the season assigned to each week at each resort, and that supposedly was the seasonality used for that trading variable. The seasons did not track the Marriott seasons--in fact, most Marriotts were Red for weeks 1-52, probably because of the desirability of the Marriott resorts. We owned at Sabal Palms at the time and that was what all the Marriott Orlando resorts were. A few of the very seasonal Marriott resorts did have two or three seasons--for example, I remember that the first two months of the year at Manor Club was a lower season, for example.

Perhaps II still uses a similar methodology and the reason the Vacation Adviser said seasons do not matter is because II considers almost all of the Marriotts to be "high season" year round. I am just speculating but it is based on a bit of history that many TUGGERs may not be aware of.

 

[Saintsfanfl]

Perhaps the following can help:

We have owned with MVCI since before they switched from RCI to Interval 20+ years ago. For a long time the II book showed the "seasons" assigned by II to each resort. They were Red, Yellow, and Green (or something like that). The II book showed the season assigned to each week at each resort, and that supposedly was the seasonality used for that trading variable. The seasons did not track the Marriott seasons--in fact, most Marriotts were Red for weeks 1-52, probably because of the desirability of the Marriott resorts. We owned at Sabal Palms at the time and that was what all the Marriott Orlando resorts were. A few of the very seasonal Marriott resorts did have two or three seasons--for example, I remember that the first two months of the year at Manor Club was a lower season, for example.

Perhaps II still uses a similar methodology and the reason the Vacation Adviser said seasons do not matter is because II considers almost all of the Marriotts to be "high season" year round. I am just speculating but it is based on a bit of history that many TUGGERs may not be aware of.

That would make sense and explain the "seasons do not matter" debate. What would be a value difference to a Marriott owner may not be enough of a value difference to II from their entire system perspective.

 

[tjkahn]

Please explain how there can be availability with no supply. Its impossible. It doesn't matter how low demand is, if supply is still lower, there can be no availability. Now if you are saying the TDI chart is a lie and the availability doesn't mean availability then while that is possible it also renders TDI meaningless and of no more value than the number of visitors to a region.

Bingo. TDI is essentially meaningless. It attempts to show the relative popularity of an area but IMHO it's got nothing to do with how hard or easy it is to trade into an area. In other words, it's not taking supply into account, just the relative amount of people who want to go there.

Orlando is 130 TDI week 12 and 150 TDI week 13. I can pull, right now, 2 BR units for either week, at Marriotts, using my studio in Tahoe - no matter what date I put in for my reservation (whether I use a 110 TDI week or a 130 TDI week, doesn't matter). Lots of people want to go to Orlando, but there is a ton of supply so it's an easy trade. So your last statement is correct - TDI does not equal availability, or even predicted availability.

 

[Saintsfanfl]

I completely agree that it is not a factor in trading. What I disagree with is that supply is not a part of the index. Even if it is simply the number of visitors per year and not actually supply vs demand, you still can't have visitors without rooms. Therefore the more rooms, or supply, the greater the number of possible visitors.

 

[tjkahn]

I completely agree that it is not a factor in trading. What I disagree with is that supply is not a part of the index. Even if it is simply the number of visitors per year and not actually supply vs demand, you still can't have visitors without rooms. Therefore the more rooms, or supply, the greater the number of possible visitors.

I don't think this is what you are saying, so don't take this as a rebuttal to your post, but the existence of rooms doesn't create demand. If they build a hotel on the South Pole tomorrow, it still won't attract visitors even though the ability to accomodate visitors has increased. "If you build it, they will come" only works in the movies .

 

[GregT]

This post reminded me of an old thread from WMOwners I came across -- I'll try to find it if I can, but I'd saved it to my now expansive timeshare folder. There had been a glitch on II and it posted the grid below briefly.

Here's the II glitch -- note that the title is mine, not what appeared on the website. I'm not suggesting anything by this, only passing it along.

***** II Trading Power Defined *******

Red Season: (Highest demand)
Studio=1 Point
1BR=1.42 Points
2BR=2 Points
3BR=2.42 Points
4BR=2.42 Points

Yellow Season (Medium demand)
Studio=.75 Points
1BR=1 Points
2BR=1.42 Points
3BR=2 Points

Green Season: (Lowest demand)
Studio=.5 Points
1BR=.75 Points
2BR= 1 Points
3BR=1.42 Points
4BR=2 Points

This is supportive of BocaBoy's three season comments -- and obviously doesn't reference TDI. A reminder on what II says about TDI (emphasis added):

“TDI” or “Travel Demand Index” means the seasonal indicators that
are updated periodically to reflect the cycles of relative weekly demand
for a specific geographic area. The TDI is a vacation-planning tool
offered by II to assist Members in determining which time periods
offer the best opportunities for travel to a particular region and when
accommodations are most likely to be available. The TDIs are not an
indication of the quality or desirability of vacationing in any specific
resort, geographic area, or season, nor are they necessarily an
indication of the availability of a particular week in the Exchange
Program.

 

[Beefnot]

I don't think this is what you are saying, so don't take this as a rebuttal to your post, but the existence of rooms doesn't create demand. If they build a hotel on the South Pole tomorrow, it still won't attract visitors even though the ability to accomodate visitors has increased. "If you build it, they will come" only works in the movies .

Although Saintsfanfl is correct in that the TDI does take into account supply in some way. It must. Availability absent of supply is an impossible concept.

 

[dioxide45]

Greg, here is a TUG thread on that subject.

http://www.tugbbs.com/forums/showthread.php?t=51174

 

[GregT]

Greg, here is a TUG thread on that subject.

http://www.tugbbs.com/forums/showthread.php?t=51174

Dioxide, thanks for the link -- that explains why I couldn't find it on WMOwners!

Still not conclusive -- even after that thread (5 years ago), our TP experiment from earlier this year and EK's discussion with the agent.

Interesting stuff....thanks again!

Greg

 

[billymach4]

Dioxide, thanks for the link -- that explains why I couldn't find it on WMOwners!

Still not conclusive -- even after that thread (5 years ago), our TP experiment from earlier this year and EK's discussion with the agent.

Interesting stuff....thanks again!

Greg

Greg,

I don't think the collective minds here will ever be able to conclusively reverse engineer the formula. II and Marriott can add in any other condition here. But as I said earlier.... The experience and minds here have about 80% of the logic nailed down.

I certainly appreciate your collective input!

 

[Saintsfanfl]

I don't think this is what you are saying, so don't take this as a rebuttal to your post, but the existence of rooms doesn't create demand. If they build a hotel on the South Pole tomorrow, it still won't attract visitors even though the ability to accomodate visitors has increased. "If you build it, they will come" only works in the movies .

This made me laugh because even though you make a valid point I cannot help but think of all the pushy presentations and the regretful buyers. I think there obviously has to be at least some desire but "building" it does cause some to come that may not have otherwise considered it an option.

 

[EKniager]

"to reflect the cycles of relative weekly demand for a specific geographic area"

 

[Saintsfanfl]

"to reflect the cycles of relative weekly demand for a specific geographic area"

Klamath Falls, Oregon. One of very many locations that are among the least visited "TDI" areas. BUT, this area has a 150 TDI for weeks 25-33! How is that possible when there aren't even very many places to stay? Is it possible that more people want to go to Klamath falls during weeks 25-33 than Las Vegas? Las Vegas has 35 million visitors per year and even during it's slowest week, there are far more visitors than during Klamath Falls busiest week! Klamath falls couldn't even house the visitors from a single large Vegas hotel! The answer is obviously supply versus demand and not demand alone.

 

[GregT]

All,

Please see II's seasons below -- and compliments (and thanks) to Javanite on the WM board for finding this and sending to me. Please recall that II has color coded the seasons as Red/Yellow/Green -- providing clues to how II views the desirability of different weeks:


Found in II 2009 Directory:

All Weeks RED (Weeks 1-52):

Aruba Ocean Club
Aruba Surf Club
BeachPlace Towers
Canyon Villas
Custom House
Cypress Harbour
Desert Springs Villas (I and II)
Frenchman's Cove
Grande Chateau
Grande Vista
Harbour Lake
Imperial Palm Villas
Kauai Beach Club
Ko Olina
Marbella
Maui Ocean Club
Maui Ocean Club -- Lahaina and Napili
Newport Coast Villas
Ocean Pointe
Ocean Palms
Playa Andaluza
Royal Palms
Sabal Palms
Shadow Ridge (and Enclaves)
St. Kitts
Village Ille de France
Villas at Doral
Waiohai



Horizons by Marriott at Branson
Red 10-52
Yellow 1-9

Grand Residence Club Lake Tahoe
Timber Lodge
Red 1-14, 23-39, 49-52
Yellow 15-22, 40-48

Barony Beach Club
SurfWatch
Grand Ocean
Red 5-48, 51-52
Green 1-4, 49-50

Club Son Antem
Red 5-52
Yellow 1-4

Crystal Shores
Red 1-35, 40-48, 50-52
Yellow 36-39, 48-49

Fairway Villas
Red 13-37, 51-52
Yellow 1-12, 48-50

Harbour Club at Harbour Town
Harbour Point at Shelter Cove
Heritage Club at Harbour Town
Monarch at Sea Pines
Sunset Pointe at Shelter Cove
Red 9-48, 51-52
Yellow 5-8
Green 1-4, 49-50

Legends Edge
Red 7-48, 51-52
Yellow 1-6, 49-50

Mai Khao Beach Club
Red 1-20, 30-34, 39-52
Yellow 21-29, 35-38

Manor Club
Red 9-52
Yellow 1-8

Mountain Valley Lodge
Red 1-15, 21-38, 47-52
Yellow 16, 39-43, 46
Green 17-20, 44-45

MountainSide
Red 1-15, 21-38, 47-42
Yellow 16-20, 39-43, 46
Green 44-45

OceanWatch
Red 9-44, 47
Yellow 1, 5-8, 45-46, 48-49, 51-52
Green 2-4, 50

Phuket
Red 1-20, 39-52
Yellow 21-38

StreamSide
Red 1-15, 21-39, 47-52
Yellow 16, 46
Green 17-20, 40-45

SummitWatch
Red 1-15, 21-38, 47-52
Yellow 16-20, 39-43, 46
Green 44-45

 

[windje2000]

Interesting and informative post.

There's clearly a difference between the color coding you posted above, which is resort specific, and the TDI, which is geographic.

Marriott resorts even in overbuilt areas (e.g. Orlando) have the red high demand coding even in lower TDI periods. Which is another way of saying that the cream rises to the top.

So does that mean that I really don't have to worry that much about the TP of the M weeks I deposit with II? or what?