Interesting Exchange Data from Advisor

[SueDonJ]

All the HHI resorts have the same trade value and therefore trade the same?

I would guess yes, if all other things are equal. The TDI charts for all the Hilton Head resorts are the same, so II considers a Barony 2BR as on par with a Sunset Point 2BR (for example.) But supply and demand comes into play as well. Supply is an issue because one resort might have fewer units than another and/or fewer deposits are made by owners, while demand becomes an issue because the newer resorts might be requested more frequently than the older ones and the oceanfront resorts will be requested more frequently than the non-oceanfront.

 

[SueDonJ]

Thanks! As a relative newbie to TUG, sometimes I have a hard time keeping up with all the acronyms . Here's another one...DH = Dear Husband?

On a good day.

 

[EKniager]

Ok I thought you were saying the demand is different but "the TDI is all the same". I was equating "TDI" with trade value. You are saying the various resorts are different locations and therefore are different trade values.

And I would assume, different demands.

The TDI is an aggregate unit used by II to represent all of HHI, sections of Florida, etc. Remember, my advisor called it a marketing tool.

 

[EKniager]

I would guess yes, if all other things are equal. The TDI charts for all the Hilton Head resorts are the same, so II considers a Barony 2BR as on par with a Sunset Point 2BR (for example.) But supply and demand comes into play as well. Supply is an issue because one resort might have fewer units than another and/or fewer deposits are made by owners, while demand becomes an issue because the newer resorts might be requested more frequently than the older ones.

Sue, it is not intuitive that demand for a Shelter Cove unit was the same as an ocean front property like Grande Ocean. You cannot buy a Memorial Day week at GO for $700 counting closing costs. TDI is a relativity tool that is geographically based not resort based. I believe it plays a significant role in the obfuscation.

 

[SueDonJ]

Does anyone have a written document from II showing how their formula works? Why not? Why don't they commit to us how they calculate the value of our deposits?

There's never been one reported to TUG. I wouldn't expect them to release their trade secrets.

Demand is one thing. Trade value (or the value of the deposit) is another. 2-br Grand Ocean ("location" variable) most certainly trades better than 2-br Harbour Point. Look at points - 4,500 versus 1,225 in mid-summer.

I think Marriott used a lot more than just II's metric when they developed their DC Points charts, things like their historical data for cash-stay demand at marriott.com as well as the prices they were able to ask when weeks were sold by MVCI. But the DC Points charts aren't exactly the best valuation tool, either - look at how low the Aruba resorts have been valued within the DC. They're undervalued no matter which factors you consider. (And just like II, I don't think Marriott will ever release their trade secrets to explain things like that, either.)

How can we be sure TDI is used to assign a "value" to a deposit?

One way might be to look at what happened when Starwood changed the II exchange system for its owners. They used to be able to choose the week to deposit just like we Marriott owners can do, and of course they did what we did and tried to deposit the highest TDI weeks. Now Starwood chooses the week to be deposited when an owner requests an II exchange, and if you go by TUG posts some of those owners are seeing a definite reduction in trade value - i.e. the resorts/units to which they're able to exchange - since the change was implemented. They believe it's because the week being deposited for them is one that has an average TDI of their season.

 

[csxjohn]

Does anyone have a written document from II showing how their formula works? Why not? Why don't they commit to us how they calculate the value of our deposits?

As long as people keep paying their annual fees and keep paying what they ask for trades, why should they tell us anything.

When people stop joining and don't trade as often, and their income starts to drop they may try to figure out why.

I do know that when trading with VRIety, there is an up-charge for a better season booked and an up-charge for a bigger unit. No credits when going the other way. Nothing else is considered.

When using DAE, there is now an up charge for bigger size which just started recently. Season or anything else doesn't matter.

I won't use RCI or II in part due to the cost of belonging and the higher charges for trades. Of course I don't look for the high end resorts and I did not pay tens of thousands for my units so I'm always happy with my trades.

 

[EKniager]

I was being... sarcastic. I know they have not shared that information and never explain it even verbally. I was trying to support the points made by my advisor.

 

[EKniager]

I think Marriott used a lot more than just II's metric when they developed their DC Points charts, things like their historical data for cash-stay demand at marriott.com as well as the prices they were able to ask when weeks were sold by MVCI. But the DC Points charts aren't exactly the best valuation tool, either - look at how low the Aruba resorts have been valued within the DC. They're undervalued no matter which factors you consider. (And just like II, I don't think Marriott will ever release their trade secrets to explain things like that, either.)

I'm sure they did but my point is still the same... TDI is a relative demand unit used to show demand for a region. I buy the characterization of it as a marketing tool for II.

There has not been any definitive data analysis done on trading history to prove the TDI weeks relate directly to the value or trading power of the deposit. If there is one I apologize, I have not seen it. Especially cross referencing the three variables defined by my Marriott Advisor. We do not have access to enough data.

 

[SueDonJ]

Sue, it is not intuitive that demand for a Shelter Cove unit was the same as an ocean front property like Grande Ocean. You cannot buy a Memorial Day week at GO for $700 counting closing costs. TDI is a relativity tool that is geographically based not resort based. I believe it plays a significant role in the obfuscation.

I don't know if I'm reading you right but I think we agree here.

Demand for the different Hilton Head resorts is certainly not equal across all resorts, so of course an oceanfront would have more perceived value in II than a Shelter Cove one. But what I'm saying is that I don't think II assigns a greater value to the oceanfront one than the harbor one - I think the higher value naturally flows from the relative supply (more high-season oceanfronts are used by owners than deposited) and demand (oceanfront is requested more often than harbor.)

Look at what happens if you request a winter week at Hilton Head. Most every resort is available no matter what you're depositing for exchange, except for holiday weeks. Any 2BR can pull any other 2BR, and that wouldn't happen if II based their exchange value on the resorts themselves.

And of course, resale prices for Hilton Head oceanfront are higher than the other HH resorts, but they're driven by supply and demand, too. I'd guess that if you're looking at winter weeks, Heritage Club is probably on par with the oceanfront ones because of the golf package attached to it.

*************
I just know that what your II rep said about Marriott's seasonal designations and the way they're correlated to II's own TDI values - that they have no bearing on the exchange equation - doesn't follow what's been discussed on TUG for years now. It would change the whole dynamic of how we've been advised by all the Marriott experts.

 

[SueDonJ]

I was being... sarcastic. I know they have not shared that information and never explain it even verbally. I was trying to support the points made by my advisor.

If you know that they've never explained it and never would, why would you think that what your advisor said today is legitimate?

 

[EKniager]

“Wide acceptance of an idea is not proof of its validity.”
― Dan Brown, The Lost Symbol

 

[EKniager]

If you know that they've never explained it and never would, why would you think that what your advisor said today is legitimate?

Never would to us. I believe Marriott has access to information II members do not.

 

[puckmanfl]

good evening...

Don't think KFC is givin' us the secret to the special herbs and spices...

Coca cola isn't opening up the safe in Atlanta!!!

Doubt II will be fessin' up anytime soon... especially the part about backroom deals with the exchange manager of the DC club....

 

[SueDonJ]

Never would to us. I believe Marriott has access to information II members do not.

I'm sure you're right, the Marriott employees who need to know all of the factors related to exchanging will most certainly have access to II information that we don't. But I don't think that the Marriott VOA's who take our phone calls are on that Need-To-Know list, and I am highly skeptical of any rep, Marriott or II, who decides one day out of the blue to tell only one person during one telephone call something that is contrary to what's been common knowledge for a good, long time.

[deleted]

 

[EKniager]

Since it is contrary to widely held beliefs, I am certainly open to data or analysis that disproves the three variable II formula.

For example, LOL, with the right source, I could be convinced in a conspiracy theory that Marriott is leaking this to get people to buy low demand weeks for trading purposes.

Anyone have anything solid?

 

[tjkahn]

As Sue said, it all comes down to supply and demand. I believe TDI is a marketing tool, and just an indication of what II thinks of the week (i.e. how hard or easy it would be to trade into).

Weeks have supply and demand like anything else in the world - and timeshares are no different, they don't violate thousands of years of economic theory and follow the same supply and demand equation as everything else in the economy. My unit in Tahoe gives me access from Mid December to Mid April. The TDI's vary from ~105 to a high of 130. Yet II will give me an AC for ANY week deposited in my season. Why? Because they probably get very few Timber Lodge 1BR units during any part of the ski season. They're trying to match supply with demand the way every business in the world does.

TDI is one piece of a very large puzzle, which we will never solve. I do believe that TDI comes nowhere close to representing the true trade value. I was once locking off my unit after making a reservation earlier for the whole thing, and the Marriott rep got on the phone with II and asked the II rep what week she wanted based on a list of available weeks at Timber Lodge. The II rep picked a week that was not the highest TDI among the group - she obviously looked at what was needed to make an exchange, or what week II was low on. So the value of a week to II can change from week to week. TDI seems to me to be offer a very vague prediction of what weeks will be in higher demand relative to the supple of weeks II expects to have. For any given year, it can fluctuate quite a bit from actual results.

So in summary, I think I mostly agree with the OP...you will get your exchange based on the match being available and your place in line. I don't think II is looking at the TDI of your week vs. another week in the same season and picking and choosing which requests/deposits to match. I do think it's possible that they might match a request first over a deposit first if they need the week on the request first. Sinister, yes, but possible. Particularly if there's incentive comp involved...

 

[puckmanfl]

good evening....

Marriott doesn't sell low demand weeks anymore!!! Ebay sells low demand weeks....

The Pre DC sales pitch for the doggie weeks was (sorry Perry) buy this bronze summitt watch, lockoff , deposit both halves and snag some great stuff (especially in Flexchange). Actually, there is quite a bit of merit to it...

I believe Dioxide has traveled everywhere with a 2 bedroom Gold GV week!!!!

My next purchase willbe a cheap 2/3 bedroom plat GV to use as Flexchange trader....

 

[MALC9990]

To me TDI is a very, very blunt instrument to guage the demand fr any week at a resort. Remember the TDI value is not particular to a resort but an area or region or is some cases a whole country or even multiple countries. So the TDI for my week at my premier Marriott Resort is shown as the same a that week at a dog of a resort in the same area, region or country that share the same TDI table in II.

However like any blunt instrument, when it is all you have you use it as best you can. It's like, I need to open this can of beans and all I have is a hammer and a screwdriver - I will eventually get the can open but it will be messy.

So to me it still makes sense when reserving a week to deposit, to look at the TDI values and reserve the best I can get in that season. When looking to place a request, I still take the relative difference in TDI values into account BUT I don't see it as being the major determining factor. The BIG factors to me are when I deposit and when I request. Deposit as early as possible and request as far out as possible.

My main trading week is my 3 bed lock-off silver week in Playa Andaluz. This is a winter week in the Costa Del Sol. I generally lock off, deposit and use the 2 bed master suite to do requests at about 16 months out and sit and wait. The lock off I use for manual searches and take what I cand find that appeals. Last year's week - my lock off got me a 2 bed unit in Marbella Beach Club in the winter of 2012 (Late Nov) - same season same TDI as my lock off. The 2 bed master suite is waiting on a request for a may week in Paris I'le de France or a September week in Club Son Antem for 2013. I don't mind which it is and the request has a date range of 5 weeks for each resort that do not overlap. Whichever I get I will be happy to take.

So I kind of take both sides in this debate. i use TDI to decide what to deposit since it can't really harm my request but I don't think it makes a great deal of difference - the quality of the resort is the BIG decider.

 

[dioxide45]

GregT did an analysis of an Aruba bulk deposit. You can find some information on that in this thread. This may shed some light on the subject.

 

[EKniager]

Thanks for the link to Greg's work.

Unfortunately, as previously assumed there isn't enough data and because this new theory was unknown at the time, the experiment wasn't conducted in a way that provided evidence that contradicts the 3 variable claim.

The search for the truth continues...

 

[billymach4]

EKANIGER! This is an excellent revelation!

I for one do support your analysis provided by the adviser... I am assuming you spoke to an II adviser, it was not clear to me if it was Marriott , or II you spoke to.

Basically in my mind II needs to match up thousands of deposits with the respective requests. On a given day many people lets say 50% jump online and look at the availability. They cherry pick and walk away happy.

The other 50% are done by advanced request. The bulk of these advanced requests must be done in some automated fashion thru a good old batch processing job. And it would make sense to me that they parse out and match these requests up using "LOCATION (not season), TIME of DEPOSIT, and TIME OF REQUEST" variables!

There are of course going to be exceptions that must be handled manually, and that leaves the other business rules, and back door deals between the resort system mangers, and the inventory managers at II to hammer out.

Also speaking from my own personal experience I did at one time own one of those Mud week Bronze seasons at good old Summit Watch. I did that when I was a young timeshare boy to get my timeshare legs. And yes I can tell you I got some fantastic trades. I also got great trades with my 2br Foxrun week that I gave away to a lucky taker in Ohio on craigslist.

Most folks here know that I am generally skeptical of the marketing bunk that Marriott and II dishes out. This TDI business falls right in line with my philosophy.

One thing I have not seen in any of the above posts are the Marriott preference. That seems to take precedence in the "LOCATION (not season), TIME of DEPOSIT, and TIME OF REQUEST".

Now if I had at least 2 solid weeks pre June 2010, I would have bought in to the DC points. But as of now.... No Dice. I will stick with my weeks and be a happy trader, and home resort vacationer!

 

[billymach4]

As far as trade secrets go....

There has been some mention of "Why would an adviser divulge this information now? This goes again what we have been lead to believe" Well yes there has been much obfuscation , and intentional white lies, and marketing spin...

However maybe this adviser let his or her guard down for a brief moment and did not realize where this information would be printed. Maybe this adviser is an honest person, and wanted to share some honest truth. Maybe this adviser is a disgruntled employee leaving next week and does not care anymore about trade secrets. Any well experienced employee with a good head for analysis can conclude these facts after a few years, and lunch room education. Maybe it is not such a secret after all.

I suspect that Ekainger got about 80% of the truth or so called secret!

And now that the truth is out.... II and Marriott will have to reinvent timeshare exchange and sell us yet another package of timeshare!

 

[NWL]

As Sue said, it all comes down to supply and demand. I believe TDI is a marketing tool, and just an indication of what II thinks of the week (i.e. how hard or easy it would be to trade into).

So in summary, I think I mostly agree with the OP...you will get your exchange based on the match being available and your place in line. I don't think II is looking at the TDI of your week vs. another week in the same season and picking and choosing which requests/deposits to match. I do think it's possible that they might match a request first over a deposit first if they need the week on the request first. Sinister, yes, but possible. Particularly if there's incentive comp involved...

I agree with the supply, demand, availablity theory when you call/request your exchange. Tiiming is everything.

 

[Clark]

Does anyone have a written document from II showing how their formula works? Why not? Why don't they commit to us how they calculate the value of our deposits?

The Marriott sticky thread

http://www.tugbbs.com/forums/showthread.php?t=391

shows the only openly explained definition and calculation of trading power that you are likely to find.

 

[GregT]

GregT did an analysis of an Aruba bulk deposit. You can find some information on that in this thread. This may shed some light on the subject.

I went back to the Aruba experiment and looked at it through EKniager's filter.

There were three 1BR's -- a Platinum Shadow Ridge, a Memorial Day Grande Vista Gold, and a Harbour Lake Week 1 (not sure of the season).

All three weeks saw substantially the same Studio/1BR/2BR Sightings. All had equal success in Sighting the non-holiday 2BRs, which was a real test of power when comparing to the Studios, and none of them saw the holiday 2BR. Only another 2BR could see the holiday 2BR.

The only real discrepancy in the three 1BRs Sightings was that Shadow Ridge Platinum and Grande Vista Gold (Holiday) weeks could see a 1BR Thanksgiving week, that the Harbour Lake Week 1 did not. I had attributed that to the needing a higher powered deposit (holiday Gold or Platinum) however it is possible that II was simply buggy.

This is a limited data set, however, as others have noted. Week 1 in Orlando still has a 110 TDI, and saw most everything that the others -- missing only the holiday week 1BR.

I recall Perry's observation once that it was a mistake to deposit a week 12 months out from check-in because there were other similar weeks being deposited by other owners -- and trade power of that deposit would weaken because of the competing "supply". His opinion was to hold your reserved week for a few weeks while the initial supply was absorbed through matches -- and would then deposit his weeks 11 months out for better trade power.

I still think TDI matters -- but just perhaps as a surrogate or proxy rather than something that is actually a component of the II algorithm.

Interesting stuff, thanks for posting this!

Best,

Greg