Florida in January--Fifth Generation Thread

[JLB]

After bouncing around in the 30s and 40s for several months, in the last nine days Resorts on the Beach for Jan, 2006, plummeted from 39 to 27.

Someone suggested that those might be going to non-timeshare owners, to travel agents.

My study over the last five years has been primarily about collecting and recording data, with few judgements being made. In this case, however, I will opin.

At this point, at 60 days out, it is clear that what is left for the NE and the Panhandle is most likely excess inventory and that it is not going to be taken. It doesn't bother me if at a reasonably close time period out from use date--30, 45, 60, or 90 days--exchange pool inventory is offered to non-members. That is more common sense than controversial.

What does bother me is when any exchange pool inventory, for any reason, is never offered to other members, but offered instead at higher prices to non-members, even if to make up for a money-losing program. That is bad business, a breach of faith to all members, and compensating one member, say one who takes a cruise at a losing price for the exchange company, by penalizing all the other members.

 

[JLB]

More Strange Happenings

ROTB for '07 was in the upper 20s and lower 30s for 13 days and then 2 days ago it was 20. Then 23 yesterday.

Today it is 30 again, but with new resorts, not the stuff that disappeared two days ago.

 

[westrougers]

Availability SW and ROB

Just out of curiosity, I checked availability for 5 weeks, using my SA weeks starting Jan 12/13 for 2007 and 2008.

Results show

Castleburn - 2007 - for ROB - 5 choices SW 0
- 2008 6 choices SW 0

for Durban Sands - 2007 - for ROB - 12 SW 0 (Cocoa Beach and Palm incl)
- 2008 - 11 SW 0

So I suspect that while DS is much better trader than Castleburn (ironically latter is GC), SW Florida is not likely possible.

BTW, we already have 4 weeks booked at excellent resorts (Vistana, Silver Lakes, FF Cypress Palms and Mizner Place) which we confirmed during the summer, so we are happy.

What are you folks trading with to get reasonably good properties in SW area?

Mike

 

[JLB]

Resorts On The Beach for '07 took another beating this week, dropping from 26 to 17.

All but two are in Ormond, Daytona or New Smyrna.

 

[JLB]

I realize that there is a lot to read and try to follow.

But the point of my 5-year, daily study is that it does not matter what you search with. The good stuff is just no longer available. The lesser resorts still are available.

I, and others, have had that pretty much confirmed by those in a position to know.

Why that is, why the good stuff we used to see is no longer available, has never been explained.

What are you folks trading with to get reasonably good properties in SW area?

Mike

 

[JLB]

I am going to go a step further and declare why I think that is, using rules of evidence develop from many hours of watching TV legal programs.

I don't believe there is any real evidence, other than circumstantial. No one has provided proof positive to any possibility.

First, I believe it is possible that I previously saw (online) Gold Crowns on the beach that should have matched to ongoing searches but did not because of a computer glitch. It is believable that there might have been a momentary timeframe soon after some of them were deposited when they were visible online when they shouldn't have been. There is plenty of real evidence that RCI's computer have been/are glitchy.

The Glitch theory is a good one in that I didn't see the good stuff very often, at most five or six times in two years of searching.

Or it could be that very rarely a number of deposits occurred at the same time and that temporarily messed up the system, much like a bulk deposit where the computers tend to read a false supply/demand situation.

(I believe there is a possibility that early deposits are being read falsely for the opposite supply/demand reason. They are being deposited before a demand has been created for them, so they are given reduced trading power.)

Secondly, I believe that owners of those prime weeks do not deposit them to RCI, or at least not in the numbers they once might have, that being the least value they can get for their weeks.
- - - - - -
As to those deposits being used for rentals, no one has provided a shred of evidence in this instance. In other areas someone has always been able to find a site where prime weeks were being offered, but never SW FL in January. Since RCI has never tried to hide their rentals it is not logical that they would in this case either.

I also dismiss the possibility that I cannot see them because of the trading power of the week I am searching with. It may be true that I never should have had the trading power to see them and it may be true that in the future I won't have the trading power to see them, but I have and do not. I have matched my searches to weeks that do not have a trading power stigma and I have also confirmed that I am seeing everything available, both of those several times.

A possible link to the rental issue is that it plays into the decision to not deposit these weeks with RCI, because owners of these weeks stopped getting comparable trades.

Why that is, why the good stuff we used to see is no longer available, has never been explained.

 

[JLB]

The Last 30 Days Before Check-in Dates

Another year has passed and it is now within 30 days of another search period, January 2007.

As you might guess, what was left for Resorts on the Beach is going fast. 30 days ago there were around 30 resorts available and now there are only 11, all located in the least desirable NE FL area.

Anything decent in SW FL was gone months ago, most of 2006 being 1 or 2 lesser resorts not on the beach.

 

[JLB]

Since it's getting close to being able to search another January, today I searched two years out, 11/1/08, for five weeks. There were 29 Resorts on the Beach, so someone, somewhere is still depositing stuff 2 years out.

 

[JLB]

A Sudden Surge

Today there is a little of what I have seen in the past, a sudden surge once it is within 14 days of check-in. SW Florida starting 12/28/06 has been running on zero for some time but today there are four resorts, ones that have not recently been available (in other words, not Lehigh).

 

[JLB]

A Faint Glimmer of Hope

Caribe Beach Resort/Sanibel/For January, 2008
- - - - - -
I am now searching January, 2009. There are 14 Resorts on the Beach and most of them are NE FL. They are the first to arrive and the last to leave.

 

[BevL]

Just a suggestion, Jim, but now that you've flipped over to '09, a new thread might be in order. For me, it just makes it a bit easier to compare, rather than back and forth in the same thread. But JMHO.

BTW, I've never stayed at this resort, but picked up a Fort Myers unit with an ongoing search for January, '09 today. Details in the sightings forum.

Bev

 

[JLB]

Yeah, I see the FMB 2-bedroom and I had seen the Sightings post. I also see Caribe for '09. Strange seeing Sanibel and not lesser resorts, although Caribe is sorta a lesser Sanibel resort.

I know what you mean by long threads. Most people don't have the patience for them.

Those that are following this normally just look at the updates. Every now and then I hear from someone who also loves SW FL, and read this all the way through.

 

[JLB]

SW Florida RCI Resort Ratings

Lovers Key Resort has gone from Gold Crown to Hospitality or nothing :annoyed: , depending on where you look.

Eagles Nest and Surf Club have gone from Gold Crown to Silver Crown, while Club Regency has stayed at Gold Crown.

A few resorts have gone up notch.

There's not much rhyme nor reason to it (as my high school English teacher used to spit out when angry).

It must be the same method used by the OFs in our neighborhood, where favors are divvied out or withheld based on your level of suckupedness.

 

[JLB]

RCI Finetuning the Secret Trading Power Formula

You know, the one they keep in the vault with the secret Bush's Baked Bean formula!

There's been a lot of talk about reduced trading power lately, and no one is announcing, with jubilation, "Wow! I can see so much more than I could with the same week last year!" My crystal ball recently said something like, "As inventory has tightened, the movement has been toward more like-for-like exchanges," a fancy way of saying, "You ain't gonna yet what ya usetacould"

But, unless you are one of the half-dozen nit-picking, anal-retentive people who do the same searches every day, it's hard to see the subtle differences. Even I had to look hard to see it. And I'm not totally convinced of what I am seeing.

Now, normally when someone starts one of these analytical threads my brain just goes nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, the same as it does when a timeshare salesman says something like, "Hi, my name is Georgio." But, here's what I'm seeing, the differences in trading power being so subtle that they worth noting.

First, for our favorite little ugly duckling SW FL resort, our good trader can see it for 12/8 and 12/15/2007. Our lesser trader can see it for 12/8, but not for 12/15! Wow, how is that for a subtle difference!

Of course, it has to be that way since the start date I use is 12/28, so our lesser trader will not see anything at that resort in our search frame.

For Resorts on the Beach, for 5 weeks starting 12/20, for 2007 and 2008, our better trader sees 66 and 46. Our lesser trader sees 35 and 2.

Our lesser trader does not see resorts for 2 years out that it sees for one year out.

But, the fact that it does see somewhat acceptable settlefors for one year out gives us hope that some of those resorts will still be available a year from now for two years from now.

That is the type of sentence that makes my brain go nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, nah, nah.

In the old days (up until maybe a year ago, or maybe more recently), a deposit either saw a resort or it didn't. And if it saw a resort, your could get up to a 1-bedroom unit or you could get any size available. That's how trading power was defined.

Now it is defined by time of year (one week making a difference) or how far ahead you search (one year ahead you can see some resorts and two years ahead you cannot).

I can assume that that is to appease the owners of the better weeks, to give them the first shot at some exchanges, the problem being that many of the owners of the better weeks have already jumped ship, not being able to get like-for-like and having found something better to do with their prime deposits. That gives me hope that some of those settlefors will still be there in a year.

All of which seems to go against RCI's former emphasis on early deposit and early confirmation, what I'm seeing now, and the last few months, contradicting and discouraging both.

 

[Neesie]

I realize that there is a lot to read and try to follow.

But the point of my 5-year, daily study is that it does not matter what you search with. The good stuff is just no longer available. The lesser resorts still are available.

I, and others, have had that pretty much confirmed by those in a position to know.

Why that is, why the good stuff we used to see is no longer available, has never been explained.

JLB: "The good stuff is just no longer available" my thoughts exactly. Which is the reason that I inquired about a trade in Mexico this year. Hubby just needs a shot of warm weather. I was never crazy about the idea of Mexico, myself. But we just got back over the weekend and must say I was more than pleasantly surprised. I may never go back to Florida again.:whoopie:

 

[JLB]

A couple of updates, m/l confirming previous conclusions from my 10 years eek: ) of searching on rci.com.

1. For the period 8/1/06-2/6/07, for Resorts on the Beach for 5 weeks beginning 12/28/08 (or as rci says it 28-dec-2008 ), in those 180 or so searches, there was very little fluctuation from day to day. Certainly not the wild fluctuation some lead you to believe there is.

The lowest number of resorts available was 53 and the highest was 64, with never more than a couple difference from day to day.

2. In the ongoing debate over the best method to use to get a good exhange, ongoing search v. DIY (daily searches on rci.com), of which I am an advocate of the latter and apparently in the minority, I just confirmed a deluxe one-bedroom on the beach for Sanibel for 12/28/08. (No resort, just one bedroom sitting there on the beach :whoopie: )

So, whether it is the best way or not, it is one way, demonstrating again that not all desirable resorts in high season match to an ongoing search, and that obligating a deposit, paying a fee in advance and getting it in line is not the only way to get one.

 

[JLB]

Well, the welcome packet to Caribe, for our exchange 12/28/08, arrived this week! How's that for providing ample notice?

So I guess it's for real, that after 30 years of going to SW Florida, after timesharing to it for 15 years, after searching it on RCI.com every day I've been home for 10 years, we are actually going to stay at a Sanibel resort, on the beach, for a whole week!!!

No, it is not one of those HGVC resorts, but it is small and intimate (26 units), has a pool, hot tub and BBQ grills! Our best friends, and folks who enjoy our forays to SW FL just as much as we do, will share it with us (or we with them). My birthday comes around during our SW FL vacation each year, and it just keeps doing that (so far). That one will be one of the significant ones, and not 16, 18, 21 or 40.

Unless RCI changes back in the other direction, this may be our last hurrah in SW FL, but it seems so meant to be. :whoopie:

 

[JLB]

SW FL 14 and 45 Day Window

It is not something I search every day, but I do often enough to be able to say that I find it strange that there never seems to be anything in the 14 or 45 day window during Snowbird season in SW FL.

Over the years there almost always is for Hawaii (even peak season), an RCI official actually pointing that out to me a few years ago, so why not SW FL? SW FL is a popular destination for Canadians and Europeans, and for them it would be a significant trip, similar to going to Hawaii. Surely there would be a few last minute cancellations or late deposits, from owners who could not use their weeks.

Wouldn't you think? It's curious. Perhaps suspicious?

If I remember, I will add that to my daily search, to see if perhaps there is a date at the end of Snowbird season when a 14/45-day window appears.

 

[ronandjoan]

keeping up with you

Every now and then I hear from someone who also loves SW FL, and read this all the way through.

I try to read most of what you write... --is it possible - probably not

oh, I did say TRY

 

[JLB]

For January, 2007, at 10 months out, we are already down to just one resort available, Lehigh of course.

Actually, we reached that point on Feb. 5, at 11 months out, but another lesser resort appeared February 6 and lingered until 3 days ago.
- - - - - -
Still nothing in the 45 day window, so there either are absolutely no last minute cancellations or they are going somewhere else.

 

[JLB]

I don't even do that.

I try to read most of what you write

 

[JLB]

Today there are ZERO resorts available for January, 2008. That's 10 months out.

Even though I have made it easier to see something by mvoing the start date of my daily search to 12/27, adding an earlier, easier week compared to the 1/1 start date I used to use, this is the earliest that there has been nothing available anywhere in SW FL.

For other years, here's how many months out the first ZERO appeared:

'06: 6 months
'05: 7 months
'04: 2 months
'03: 5 months

For those needing the obvious to be put into words, this is just further evidence confirming all the previous evidence of dwindling availability.


http://www.timeshareforums.com/foru...-january-plus-resorts-beach-9.html#post121393

 

[short]

For those needing the obvious to be put into words, this is just further evidence confirming all the previous evidence of dwindling availability.

JLB,

Forgive me for not rereading the extensive threads on this subject but have you concluded that availability is dwindling, demand is increasing or both? I know a large number of geezers(prebabyboomers) and baby boomers that are retiring now.

Short

 

[JLB]

I don't believe availability is dwindling. I believe it already dwindled and has reached the limit of dwindle-ability.

 

[LMD]

Surf Club Marco 2009

Picked up a week at Surf Club of Marco for 1/17/09 this morning about 8:30am on-line
Lisa