Florida in January--Fifth Generation Thread

[JLB]

And if you adjust for Dec. checkins, for 2007 there are no resorts available for January in SW FL and 12 of 59 are December-only check-ins.

 

[JLB]

This is so pronounced, the lack of activity, that I can't mention it too many times.

For SW FL for January, 2008, there have been 7, 8 or 9 resorts available every day since February 15. That's 15 weeks!!!

The only movement appears to be a very rare deposit or when something is taken and then reappears the next day (thrown back, so to speak).

For an area that is supposedly in such great demand, the lack of movement in inventory is almost too much to believe. Perhaps it speaks about the quality of the resorts that are available.

A comment I haven't made for awhile, but that has always held true, is how little movement there is from day to day. It is not the wildly fluctuating picture that some try to have you believe.

For my Resorts on the Beach, one now in the upper 50s and the other in the upper 40s, it seldoms fluctuates more than one resort a day. In the last month the most either has fluctuated from one day to the next is four.

The picture I am seeing is one of very little activity, again relative to what some would have you believe.

 

[JLB]

It's at the point where the number of Resorts on the Beach for January, 2007 (decreasing) is the same as the number for January, 2008 (increasing).

52

January, 2007 maxxed at 68 in September, 2005.

 

[JLB]

Yesterday (July 17) there were no resorts available for this coming January in SW Florida. I figured that was probably the earliest that had ever occurred. I thought that sometime when I was not under the gun to get a new floor installed in Jenny's bathroom, instead of being on timeshare forums on the computer :wink: , I would go back and take a look.

Then this morning I remembered that I changed the start date of my January searches from January 1 to December 28 sometime during the last year, and that Lehigh has been available for 12/30 only for quite some time.

When I checked back, I saw that the first time only Lehigh was available, and only for 12/30 (nothing in January), was February 10 of this year. That would be the earliest I ever saw nothing in SW Florida for the following January.

Which raises the question---if there is nothing to see how can you see it?

 

[JLB]

I am going to assume that the new RCI.com is still acting up.

This time it is Resorts on the Beach. For Jan/07 it has been running in the 40's and today it is 6. For Jan/08 it has been running in the 50's and today it is 2.

 

[JLB]

Having searched every day for nearly 200 days without even a hint of anything decent for SW Florida, today I bit the bullet and took a Gold Crown on Longboat Key for Jan, 2008. Since the good resorts in that area also go early and don't reappear, I thought it was best to sacrifice our favorite area for a not-so-bad area and a great resort.

We could do worse than a 1-bedroom, 2 bath Gold Crown on the Beach for January in a sub-tropical area. The 2-bath is important because we will probably share it with friends.

I also redeemed and used RCI Elite Rewards Dollars, so even though that premium is not a very good premium, it did pay for this exchange.

We can still travel to Bonita Springs/Estero to see Rapmarks and Conch Man and maybe have a birthday dinner wearing el sombrero grande.

 

[JLB]

Pinch Me!

When I searched this morning there was a 2-bedroom at Sandpiper Beach Club on Siesta Key, one of the settlefors I was really looking.

So I called Linda in new Brunswick and she made the switch.

 

[JLB]

The week I used to get this exchange had been a real trooper. We had become really close and I hate to see him go.

The start date on it is 7/29/06, so I had deposited it two years ago, and started searching with it almost immediately.

At a minimum of four searches a day every day I've been home, and some days many, many more, that's way over 3000 searches!

 

[JLB]

FWIW, the Guide that did the switch, Linda in New Brunswick, was sharp and we talked awhile. We talked about what I do to get exchanges.

She said, "That's why you get the 2-bedroom Gold Crown on Siesta Key in January!"

 

[Neesie]

I'm happy to hear that you got something; it sounds pretty nice.

 

[JLB]

Thanks. . . .

 

[JLB]

Although it could just be the glitchiness of the new and improved RCI.com, a phenomenon we go through with every improvement, it appears that even the less desirable areas and resorts are now being taken in Resorts on the Beach for January, 2007, now less than six months out.

45 days ago there were mid-50's available each search and this morning there are only 34, of course mostly in the NE and Panhandle.

 

[Neesie]

I just put in a request for Jan 07 and was offered The Resort on Cocoa Beach (which I didn't want because I exchanged another resort in Cocoa Beach to go somewhere else). Then was offered the Driftwood Inn in Vero which would have been a studio; and another studio in Destin (sigh). I'm just trying to use up a banked week before it expires. I was offered something else in Mexico (Grand Mayan Riviera Mayan in Cancun). Have never been to Mexico but am definitely going to check it out. Already posted on the Mexico board.

I was really hoping to use my condo in Cocoa Beach (I didn't bank 07) and use the following week somewhere else in Florida. We're not opposed to driving. If we don't use our condo I'll probably list it on the last minute rentals.

 

[JLB]

On another forum someone with an ongoing search for Caribbean and SW FL beach for more than a year posted that RCI told her that they had had zero deposits for either area for the week she wants next Spring.

 

[JLB]

Worse Than It Appears

I need to mention that the lack of availaibility now is even more dire over previous years than my figures indicate.

For years the start date of my January searches was January 1, because we had business in Florida that coincided with that date. Back when I was showing 13 and 14 resorts available, that was between January 1 and February 1.

I now use December 28 as a start date, and that picks up extra availability that I did not see in earlier searches.

As an example, the 8/11/2006 search for January, 2008, shows 9 resorts, but 4 of them have only December 29 checkin available.

So, I am now recording that as 9 resorts, when in previous years I would have recorded it as 5, and I am still seeing fewer now than previously.

 

[JLB]

In all the years I have done this study, and maintained the various generations of this thread, you may have noticed that I have not drawn any conclusions. I have just stated observations.

I'll depart from that today.

I sense that if RCI is not careful, that if they do not do something, and something big and bold and brash, to restore the faith of their long-time members, and to restore the quality of exchanging to a level it once had, that it may be destined to be a company that only those who cannot do something else with their weeks use. The meaning of that, obviously, is that it will be a place where owners of lessers resorts go to trade for other lesser resorts.

There are so many timeshare chains, point systems, rental options for owned weeks, etc., that owners can use instead of RCI (or II), and the word on the street and on these forums for several years has been to take your weeks and go somewhere else, that it appears that is what is happening.

On the other forum, TennisWalt pointed out the Casa Ybel website, where owners can rent their January weeks for well over $2000. That seems to be a much better option that giving them to an exchange company for a promise to provide a comparable vacation which they no longer seem to be able to do.

I know who knows for sure.

 

[Neesie]

Sad but true

 

[JLB]

I have now recorded my last 3400 searches.

 

[bogey21]

As my interest is SE Florida I have followed this thread with some (but only a little) interest for quite a while now. I usually search SE Florida 2 years out and have just about always been well satisfied. From the last Saturday in December 2007 for the 5 Weeks that the new RCI website gives me without a lot of effort I find 13 Resorts (some with multiple weeks) in SE Florida. Just for the heck of it I expanded the search to SE and SW Florida and came up with 25 available Resorts.

GEORGE

 

[JLB]

George:

I don't disagree. Although I am not as familiar with all the resort in SE, I do see some that appear to be very nice.

For that same search I see:

A Total of 37 Resorts were found for FLORIDA/FL-SOUTHEAST & SOUTHWEST

(10 in SW and 27 in SE)

Since I added Resorts on the Beach to my daily searches, which I believe I did on March, 10, 2004, I have looked at Resorts on the Beach in all of Florida for January more than 1400 times. I have posted some observations about areas many times.

The first to be taken are The Keys and SW, except for a few lesser resorts that linger a bit. The Sarasota area and the SE stay available a little longer, and the nicer resorts are available at some point along the line. (That is different from SW in that the better resorts never appear any more).

The last beachfront Gold Crown I saw in SW Florida was Seawatch on the Beach. That was September 11, 2005. Since then I have seen two Silver Crowns, Surf Club and Caribe. Of course, those last less than a day.

I have been thinking about a really nice beachfront Gold Crown to go with the Sandpiper we got for 2008. I'd settle for SE, but prefer SW or Sarasota.

Then, of course, the last area to be chosen is NE (and the Panhanbdle considering how few resorts there are there.)

 

[JLB]

A New Twist--Checking On Assigned Units

I've said that when exchanging, I search online and then call a Guide to see the specific unit that is available. Then I call the resort to find out more about the unit.

This morning there was a 2-bedroom, beachfront Gold Crown the week before another 2-bedroom beachfront Gold Crown we already have booked. The resort has two beachfront buildings and a bayside building.

I called RCI and the Guide told me it was Unit 107. When I said I would call the resort and asked them about it, he said, "Would you like to call them together?"
Why heck yes! Nice offer. Good service. That is what my crystal ball has been saying RCI is striving for.

Sure enough, a few seconds later I hear a lady at the resort asking him what he wants to know. She says it's on the bayside.

So sorry, but nice effort!

 

[JLB]

I sense that SW Florida for January, 2008 (beginning 12/28/2007) is at it's peak. It hit 11 resorts just this morning.

The peak for both 2006 and 2007 (using Jan. 1 as a start date) was 9 each year.

At 16 (1/2) months out, it is the timeframe when availability has historically been at its peak.

Today there are 6 Silver Crowns available. In the 200 or so searches I have already made for Jan. 2008, including today, no Gold Crowns have appeared.

There are some comfortable resorts available now, if you can settle for less than the lush models you were shown in all your timeshare sales presentations.

 

[JLB]

You Better Check Twice

Occassionally RCI.com has unexplained glitches.

This morning my 2007 searches were OK, about the same as they have been.

My 2008 searches had been running 12 or 13 for SW FL and 57 and 58 for Resorts on the Beach. This morning they were 1 and 35. I did them again just to make sure I had the right dates and areas. Again, 1 and 35.

Then I went back to the beginning, to selecting the week to search with. The results this time were 13 and 58, same as yesterday.

I was concerned bcause I have been doing some things that require a Guide and sometimes a Guide can screw things up.

I just noticed that the results for my 2007 searches were 1 and 35, so for some reason even when I changed the dates to search for 2008, it gave me the 2007 results again.

Normally stuff like that is human error, but I did it twice to be sure and it was the same both times.

 

[JLB]

As I mentioned somewhere along the way, the better resorts in the Sarasota area are still available, including today for January, 2008.

 

[rickandcindy23]

JLB, Which resort in Sarasota would you consider is the best?

My daughter and son-in-law want to travel to Sarasota to show his grandparents the new baby, which has not been born yet but will be 11 months old in January of 2008!

We are going to be grandparents. Yay! It's about time.