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Florida in January--Fifth Generation Thread
- Thread starter JLB
- Start date
JLB
Banned
Wouldn't you know. A bajillion consecutive mornings of searching and this morning I didn't. 
Anyway, that week would not work. We need 1/3 or 1/4/09.
But thanks, anyway. It goes to weaken the theory that all the good stuff automatically matches to ongoing searches. It is also Sunday, and it has often been Sunday morning when I do see stuff, after the Saturday night maintenance.
This is the way SW FL in January has been. Nothing. Nothing. Nothing. Nothing. Nothing. Nothing. etc. etc. etc. Something. Nothing. Nothing. Nothing. Nothing.
Anyway, that week would not work. We need 1/3 or 1/4/09.
But thanks, anyway. It goes to weaken the theory that all the good stuff automatically matches to ongoing searches. It is also Sunday, and it has often been Sunday morning when I do see stuff, after the Saturday night maintenance.
This is the way SW FL in January has been. Nothing. Nothing. Nothing. Nothing. Nothing. Nothing. etc. etc. etc. Something. Nothing. Nothing. Nothing. Nothing.
JLB
Banned
Today, at just over 20 months out, I confirmed the last of our SW FL trip for Jan, 2009. Another settlefor, this time venturing north of the Caloosahatchee, but getting a 2-bedroom on a nice beach.
The little resort further south that we would prefer also just showed up, but for the week before, which we have already booked.
As scarce as these have become I have learned not to blink. You snooze, you lose.
The little resort further south that we would prefer also just showed up, but for the week before, which we have already booked.
As scarce as these have become I have learned not to blink. You snooze, you lose.
JLB
Banned
January, 2009
The number for Resorts on the Beach for January, 2009 (12/27/08 start date) continues to rise, now at 50. Eventually it should peak in the 60's.
No HGVC Gold Crowns on the beach in SW FL, but there are some decent ones in some others areas.
SW FL for January, 2009, stands at 8, all settlefors, and likely at or near it's peak.
The number for Resorts on the Beach for January, 2009 (12/27/08 start date) continues to rise, now at 50. Eventually it should peak in the 60's.
No HGVC Gold Crowns on the beach in SW FL, but there are some decent ones in some others areas.
SW FL for January, 2009, stands at 8, all settlefors, and likely at or near it's peak.
JLB
Banned
Nothing new, but I'm still searching SW and ROTB for Januarys.
SW for '09 is hanging in there at 6-7-8, still lesser resorts, and likely the peak.
ROTB for '09 is still on it's way up.
SW for '09 is hanging in there at 6-7-8, still lesser resorts, and likely the peak.
ROTB for '09 is still on it's way up.
JLB
Banned
At 6 months out, the lesser resorts for ROTB for Jan., 2007, are being taken. In the last month it has gone down from 52 to 36.
- Joined
- Jun 9, 2005
- Messages
- 2,404
- Reaction score
- 424
- Location
- Seattle area
- Resorts Owned
- Telemark, Townhouses at St Augustine Beach and Tennis Club, Stoneridge Resort (ID)
I'm still looking for 2009
Still watching your listings, Jim, for week 1 for 2009, ROTB hopefully
Still watching your listings, Jim, for week 1 for 2009, ROTB hopefully
JLB
Banned
For the five weeks starting 12/27/08, this morning I saw 48 ROTBs. What are you seeing? What are you wanting?
JLB
Banned
At a little over five months out, the availability of Resorts on the Beach for January is consistent with previous years. Of the 35 not-so-spectacular resorts that are available, here is where they are located:
NE-25
Panhandle-5
SE-4
NW-1
The Keys and SW have not been available for several months.
2009 is holding it's own, now at 49.
NE-25
Panhandle-5
SE-4
NW-1
The Keys and SW have not been available for several months.
2009 is holding it's own, now at 49.
JLB
Banned
In all the years I have studied this and posted about it, none of the naysayers have found any place that the inventory formerly available is going, or uncovered any nefarious plot regarding it.
That, recent comments from inside, and comments from individual owners leads me to believe that the reduction in availability is a matter of a free operation of the marketplace. As owners have become more aware of alternatives available to them, as the Internet has made conducting business with their weeks (such as renting them themselves) easier, and as the mini-systems (in this case HGVC) have become more popular, it is the major exchange companies who are losing business.
It is not as simple as it once was: Use it or give to RCI/II.
That, recent comments from inside, and comments from individual owners leads me to believe that the reduction in availability is a matter of a free operation of the marketplace. As owners have become more aware of alternatives available to them, as the Internet has made conducting business with their weeks (such as renting them themselves) easier, and as the mini-systems (in this case HGVC) have become more popular, it is the major exchange companies who are losing business.
It is not as simple as it once was: Use it or give to RCI/II.
Sea Six
TUG Member
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2005
- Messages
- 4,045
- Reaction score
- 873
- Location
- Marco Island, FL
- Resorts Owned
-
Club Regency - Marco Island
Lagunamar - Cancun
Vistana Villages Key West (2) - Orlando
I decided about 15 years ago that the only way I was going to take my vacation in the place I wanted to be at the time I wanted to be there was to buy a week at a resort I would always be happy. No more beating my head against the wall trying to make just the right trade. And if I chose to trade from the resort I owned and didn't get what I wanted, I was still happy because I was taking my vacation at the resort I liked the best anyway. Time sharing turned out to be a great theory, but no guarantee you could trade even your primo resort for something else you really wanted.
JLB
Banned
I'm sure I said it way back yonder somewhere, but when we got to the ugly little resort we like to trade into this year (12/30/06), we saw that the unit and week we normally get for an exchange was for sale, and reasonable.
We knew that meant we would never get it again for an exchange.
Bright and early 1/2/07, I went to the office to tell them we wanted it. It had been sold. Yeah, right, on Sunday, New Year's Eve day, or Monday, New Year's Day!!!!!
And, it hasn't shown up for exchange since, and won't.
We knew that meant we would never get it again for an exchange.
Bright and early 1/2/07, I went to the office to tell them we wanted it. It had been sold. Yeah, right, on Sunday, New Year's Eve day, or Monday, New Year's Day!!!!!
And, it hasn't shown up for exchange since, and won't.
Sea Six
TUG Member
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2005
- Messages
- 4,045
- Reaction score
- 873
- Location
- Marco Island, FL
- Resorts Owned
-
Club Regency - Marco Island
Lagunamar - Cancun
Vistana Villages Key West (2) - Orlando
Instead of settling for the ugly little resort, why don't you just buy time at the resort you really want to be, and not have to spend so much time searching? I know you have been around long enough to know what you like, and you know how to find the bargains.
JLB
Banned
Over the last half-dozen years or so, those who have followed know we prefer the little ugly resort.
For so many reasons.
But to explain them all on the Internet would be to encourage others to desire something we desire, something which is extremely limited, and would be a masochistic move on my part.
For so many reasons.
But to explain them all on the Internet would be to encourage others to desire something we desire, something which is extremely limited, and would be a masochistic move on my part.
JLB
Banned
Here is another tidbit advocating searching online yourself rather than relying on the information/disinformation from a Guide. No one will be more interested in your deposits/trading power/exchanges than yourself.
For a couple of years we have been facing a reduction in trading power, for unexplained reasons, as many have reported. I have been doing stuff to make the good last as long as it can.
But, with our 99th and 100th Spacebank deposits this week, I can see that the inevitable is not too far off.
Today I searched with deposit 99, 100 not being available to search with yet. 99 has historically been a top trader, a Spring Break ski week, one that matched or beat all the top traders in any trading power test. It no longer is.
If I had to rely on a Guide, and I had them continue to search for the same resorts and the same area as in the past, we would be very disappointed, again something we hear a lot. I did the same searches as always, with the same 12/27 start date, and didn't see squat, just lesser resorts in NE FL and the Panhandle.
However, by adjusting the start date back to 12/1, I am able to see the same resorts I used to see for the later, more popular dates. I can now see the resorts that we like to visit for as late as mid-December, 12/15.
Although, like the multitude of lemmings who flock to Florida as soon as the holidays are over, we would prefer January, we can make the minor adjustment by moving our winter getaway back to December.
All things considered, our purchase price, our low annual fees, etc., it still makes using RCI the best bang for our buck, also something similar to what others have been saying.
So, for now, it is not going to heck in a handbasket.
Now all I have to do is to convince all involved what a great deal that is.
For a couple of years we have been facing a reduction in trading power, for unexplained reasons, as many have reported. I have been doing stuff to make the good last as long as it can.
But, with our 99th and 100th Spacebank deposits this week, I can see that the inevitable is not too far off.
Today I searched with deposit 99, 100 not being available to search with yet. 99 has historically been a top trader, a Spring Break ski week, one that matched or beat all the top traders in any trading power test. It no longer is.
If I had to rely on a Guide, and I had them continue to search for the same resorts and the same area as in the past, we would be very disappointed, again something we hear a lot. I did the same searches as always, with the same 12/27 start date, and didn't see squat, just lesser resorts in NE FL and the Panhandle.
However, by adjusting the start date back to 12/1, I am able to see the same resorts I used to see for the later, more popular dates. I can now see the resorts that we like to visit for as late as mid-December, 12/15.
Although, like the multitude of lemmings who flock to Florida as soon as the holidays are over, we would prefer January, we can make the minor adjustment by moving our winter getaway back to December.
All things considered, our purchase price, our low annual fees, etc., it still makes using RCI the best bang for our buck, also something similar to what others have been saying.
So, for now, it is not going to heck in a handbasket.
Now all I have to do is to convince all involved what a great deal that is.
Sea Six
TUG Member
- Joined
- Oct 15, 2005
- Messages
- 4,045
- Reaction score
- 873
- Location
- Marco Island, FL
- Resorts Owned
-
Club Regency - Marco Island
Lagunamar - Cancun
Vistana Villages Key West (2) - Orlando
Except for the minor detail that winter doesn't start until 12/22 and your "winter getaway" isn't even during the winter.
Last edited:
JLB
Banned
Guess your smiley didn't show up.
People tend to be influenced by their environment, yours being different winter-wise, from those referred to as Snowbirds.
At least in December we will be able to get golf discounts and restaurant twofers.
People tend to be influenced by their environment, yours being different winter-wise, from those referred to as Snowbirds.
At least in December we will be able to get golf discounts and restaurant twofers.
JLB
Banned
A Good Lesson
Now that I think about it, this is a good trading power lesson, say for newbies.
Most often we talk about what resorts can be obtained with a deposit, but there is more to it than that.
Sometimes trading power differences show up in size of unit available, a stronger trader can get a two or three bedroom unit.
Sometimes trading power differences show up in the time of year that a deposit can get a resort. A stronger trader can get resorts all the time, even in peak season, while a weak trader can get the same resort, but only in off season.
In my particular study, for January, 2009 my strong trader can get 51 resorts and my weak trader can only get 16. But, for December, 2007, before the start of high season, the strong trader can get 68 resorts and the weak trader 54 resorts.
They become closer to equal in off-season.
In this particular case, my deposit is a devalued peak season week. So, a high season weak trader can get better resorts in off season.
I suspect that if you try to compare it to the value in the market place, say by rental price to the public, that the trades would be very comparable. The deposit resort may rent for $1000 and it can get the off-season trade, also about a $1000 value in the market place. But it can't get the $1500/$2000 high season week.
As Inside Guy once said, thereabouts, that things tend to find their own (true) level over time, that corrections tend to be made based on the ability to collect data. He also said that those corrections perhaps occur faster because of things we say on the Internet, that people we may not want to know things find them out because of our discussions.
Now that I think about it, this is a good trading power lesson, say for newbies.
Most often we talk about what resorts can be obtained with a deposit, but there is more to it than that.
Sometimes trading power differences show up in size of unit available, a stronger trader can get a two or three bedroom unit.
Sometimes trading power differences show up in the time of year that a deposit can get a resort. A stronger trader can get resorts all the time, even in peak season, while a weak trader can get the same resort, but only in off season.
In my particular study, for January, 2009 my strong trader can get 51 resorts and my weak trader can only get 16. But, for December, 2007, before the start of high season, the strong trader can get 68 resorts and the weak trader 54 resorts.
They become closer to equal in off-season.
In this particular case, my deposit is a devalued peak season week. So, a high season weak trader can get better resorts in off season.
I suspect that if you try to compare it to the value in the market place, say by rental price to the public, that the trades would be very comparable. The deposit resort may rent for $1000 and it can get the off-season trade, also about a $1000 value in the market place. But it can't get the $1500/$2000 high season week.
As Inside Guy once said, thereabouts, that things tend to find their own (true) level over time, that corrections tend to be made based on the ability to collect data. He also said that those corrections perhaps occur faster because of things we say on the Internet, that people we may not want to know things find them out because of our discussions.
JLB
Banned
All good things must come to an end (really?).
Good or not, that includes my study of January availability in SW FL. When you think about it, it is amazing that we have had a top trader for as long as we have, so that I have been able to see everything available, and document it, almost every day for over five years.
Now, with our last deposit for 2009, which was our 100th deposit to RCI, it has been confirmed that our once great-trading weeks are now mediocre. The one remaining deposit is only good to search through January, 2009.
One thing that today's comparative searches did prove is the desireablilty of SW FL over other FL areas. When I adjusted back to Dec. 1, our good trader saw SW FL resorts and our medicore traders do not. So, that is an area, timeframe, or combination, that is now off limits to all but top traders.
Unfortunately, that also means that adjusting our vacation plans back to December is not going to get us where we really want to go. There's always Orlando!
Actually, there wasn't anything left to document in my study. SW FL during Snowbird Season through RCI is a thing of the past.
Good or not, that includes my study of January availability in SW FL. When you think about it, it is amazing that we have had a top trader for as long as we have, so that I have been able to see everything available, and document it, almost every day for over five years.
Now, with our last deposit for 2009, which was our 100th deposit to RCI, it has been confirmed that our once great-trading weeks are now mediocre. The one remaining deposit is only good to search through January, 2009.
One thing that today's comparative searches did prove is the desireablilty of SW FL over other FL areas. When I adjusted back to Dec. 1, our good trader saw SW FL resorts and our medicore traders do not. So, that is an area, timeframe, or combination, that is now off limits to all but top traders.
Unfortunately, that also means that adjusting our vacation plans back to December is not going to get us where we really want to go. There's always Orlando!
Actually, there wasn't anything left to document in my study. SW FL during Snowbird Season through RCI is a thing of the past.
Re: >> SW FL during Snowbird Season through RCI is a thing of the past.<<
=========================================================
I don't disagree. Yet, I find myself wondering if that's equally true for folks searching RCI weeks with their RCI points, as opposed to searching only with deposited weeks.....
I don't claim to know, but I still wonder, presuming (perhaps incorrectly) there would be nothing "invisible" in a points search for weeks, as there clearly would be in a weeks search for weeks (due to a week's trading power limitations).
=========================================================
I don't disagree. Yet, I find myself wondering if that's equally true for folks searching RCI weeks with their RCI points, as opposed to searching only with deposited weeks.....
I don't claim to know, but I still wonder, presuming (perhaps incorrectly) there would be nothing "invisible" in a points search for weeks, as there clearly would be in a weeks search for weeks (due to a week's trading power limitations).
JLB
Banned
They say that things will look better with a good night's sleep, or a few hours sleep, or a wrestless, fitfull few hours , and they are right. Of course, they are always right.
This morning our eunoched weeks are seeing the places we like for December, including some two bedroom units and some GCs. So, by adjusting our winter getaway from after Christmas to before Christmas, we are good to go a little while longer.
This morning our eunoched weeks are seeing the places we like for December, including some two bedroom units and some GCs. So, by adjusting our winter getaway from after Christmas to before Christmas, we are good to go a little while longer.
JLB
Banned
I've laid this out here for several years, so that the Points folks have had an opportunity to beat me up with their superiority, and they have not.
That silence answers it for me. Stuff just isn't getting depositing. Owners, individually, have said that, and it has been confirmed semi-officially.
If only bootleg or anon would come along and say the same thing, it would be gospel.
The last few years, the only way I have seen to trade into HGVC GCs in SW FL in January is through HGVC, and that has been very limited. That is another point, that the majors have been losing ground to the minis.
That silence answers it for me. Stuff just isn't getting depositing. Owners, individually, have said that, and it has been confirmed semi-officially.
If only bootleg or anon would come along and say the same thing, it would be gospel.
The last few years, the only way I have seen to trade into HGVC GCs in SW FL in January is through HGVC, and that has been very limited. That is another point, that the majors have been losing ground to the minis.
JLB
Banned
As to buying what we want, where we want, when we want it, in this case DW and I have decided that the risk is not worth the potential gain--something golfers learn all too well!
Recent history has shown how hurricane prone the SW FL resorts are. There were still some minus buildings last January.
In addition, the older, comfortable SW Florida resorts are virtually screaming Special Assessment for major physical plant overhauls in the near future.
So, for now, an occasional trade in is the safe way to go.
Recent history has shown how hurricane prone the SW FL resorts are. There were still some minus buildings last January.
In addition, the older, comfortable SW Florida resorts are virtually screaming Special Assessment for major physical plant overhauls in the near future.
So, for now, an occasional trade in is the safe way to go.
JLB
Banned
Last week I posted that because of a Spirit Air/Orbitz snafu, leaving us with no plane reservations for our Morritt's Grand exchange to Grand Cayman this coming January, I cancelled it and switched to a lesser resort, but on the beach, in SW FL.
Perhaps I am one who is more amazed by the coincidences of life than others.
As I have been reporting, there hasn't been a resort on the beach in SW FL available for January in more than 8 months. Then, exactly at the moment we needed it, there one was. Someone else also knew it was a rare find, since it disappeared and then reappeared.
Anyway, I am amazed at how often (in life) the answer to your problem(s) just suddenly appears, just when things look bleakest.
Perhaps I am one who is more amazed by the coincidences of life than others.
As I have been reporting, there hasn't been a resort on the beach in SW FL available for January in more than 8 months. Then, exactly at the moment we needed it, there one was. Someone else also knew it was a rare find, since it disappeared and then reappeared.
Anyway, I am amazed at how often (in life) the answer to your problem(s) just suddenly appears, just when things look bleakest.