Expert report predicts up to two more years of pandemic misery

[stmartinfan]

I thought I recalled Bill Gates planning to have this foundation provide money to build plants for the manufacture of at least 6 vaccines when they go into trials, with the idea that not all will be successful in the trials, but that there will be infrastructure in place to quickly most to manufacturing for those that do work - even if that means some of the factories will never be used.

 

[cman]

But the states that are opening up are doing so in small ways; they're not removing all restrictions at once. Doing it this way allows them to reevaluate if they do start to see a rise in cases and adjust to that.

Some of the states are opening in the responsible manner that you describe. Others are not. Some of them are opening even though they're infection rate is increasing! In order to responsibly release SIP restrictions requires an effective testing and contact tracing plan. Without that, there's no hope of containing an outbreak.

Denmark started opening schools two weeks ago and their cases are still declining, so there is precedence for relaxing restrictions after the cases have peaked out.

Denmark has a population of 5.7 million. I live in the DFW area with a population of 7.6 million. Now think of the other USA metro areas. Think that's an accurate comparison?

Most of the hospitals and medical facilities were nowhere near being overwhelmed in the states starting to relax the restrictions. Even the states that delayed and were some of the last to put in restrictions did not have any issues with facilities being overwhelmed, so your logic that SIP was the only reason our healthcare system was not overwhelmed in those states is suspect, to say the least. At some point, SIP will cost more lives than it will save, due to economic and mental effects -- it is not viable as a long-term "solution".

So, let's think this through. If SIP wasn't the reason our healthcare system wasn't overwhelmed, what was? We've got 60K+ dead in two months with well over a million confirmed cases. If not SIP, what prevented our healthcare system from being overwhelmed? Luck?

[/QUOTE]

 

[Ken555]

Let's not forget the multiple waves which hit during the 1918 pandemic and the potential for a similar path this year.

 

[cman]

Not a flaw in his logic at all - that is precisely what he said. SIP was to reduce stress on our healthcare. It worked. Now open things up. Yes, you can do it in stages. and yes, subject to change if cases/deaths spike so much they could overwhelm hospitals.

The flaw in "your" logic is in thinking that "it worked", and we can just move on. Remember, there is neither a vaccine, nor treatment for this thing. It's going to be with us for a while. Opening things back up is possible, but it requires things like, adequate testing, and contact tracing. Your suggestion to, "Now open things up", is not the smart move.

 

[Pathways]

Remember, there is neither a vaccine, nor treatment for this thing

And I'm proceeding as though there never will be.

Your suggestion to, "Now open things up", is not the smart move

Maybe not, time will tell.

Our state today announced: All travel restrictions lifted today, malls at 50% starting Monday, churches OK as of the 8th, restaurants and Bars at 50% starting on the 8th. Movie theaters and pools on the 24th, and so on. Essentially everything open July 4th including fairs. (Social distancing still encouraged)

 

[Luanne]

And I'm proceeding as though there never will be.



Maybe not, time will tell.

Our state today announced: All travel restrictions lifted today, malls at 50% starting Monday, churches OK as of the 8th, restaurants and Bars at 50% starting on the 8th. Movie theaters and pools on the 24th, and so on. Essentially everything open July 4th including fairs. (Social distancing still encouraged)

Remind me not to visit your state any time soon.

 

[cman]

And I'm proceeding as though there never will be.



Maybe not, time will tell.

Our state today announced: All travel restrictions lifted today, malls at 50% starting Monday, churches OK as of the 8th, restaurants and Bars at 50% starting on the 8th. Movie theaters and pools on the 24th, and so on. Essentially everything open July 4th including fairs. (Social distancing still encouraged)

Good luck. Hope all works out for you guys.

 

[Pathways]

Remind me not to visit your state any time soon

No issue - but about ten other states are right with us, and another 15-20 are a week behind. (Those are the ones I know about.)

(In an effort to be accurate, there are three counties in the state that are delaying things for 7-10 days because their numbers were higher)

 

[Luanne]

No issue - but about ten other states are right with us, and another 15-20 are a week behind. (Those are the ones I know about.)

(In an effort to be accurate, there are three counties in the state that are delaying things for 7-10 days because their numbers were higher)

New Mexico is just starting to open up. Golf courses (golfers only, no restaurant, no retail), gun stores by appointment only, pet grooming and boarding. So NO restaurants, except carry out, no salons, no 4th of July anything, no movies, no pools.

Everything for summer, all of the major markets and festivals have already been cancelled. It will be very quiet here this summer.

 

[elaine]

it’s hard for those in areas not significantly affected to stay closed. If I was 40 and needed to support a family, I’d feel the same.
but, being almost 60 and having asthma, I’m lowering my risk for the next few months: I’ll drive my car to work vs commuter train, telework more, wear a mask/glove shopping and dr office, no movie theater and probably no restaurants. I’ll cut my own hair for the next few months. I’ll watch church online.
the biggest concern is my mom in a retirementCenter. I had planned to see her every 2-3 months to go over bills, check in her,visit. Don’t know when it’ll be safe for that.
Strangely, golf courses stayed open in VA. I read that people drove down from N.J. to play.

 

[Pathways]

"Now open things up", is not the smart move.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Texas open up their restaurants and retail already today? (With some restrictions, of course).

And New Mexico newspapers say restaurants with restrictions there within two weeks.

 

[Luanne]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't Texas open up their restaurants and retail already today? (With some restrictions, of course).

And New Mexico newspapers say restaurants with restrictions there within two weeks.

Which New Mexico newspapers? Haven't heard anything.

 

[Pathways]

Which New Mexico newspapers? Haven't heard anything.

Sante Fe New Mexican, I think was quoted. The other I don't remember (I hope that's a real news outlet, and not some fake website)

 

[Luanne]

Sante Fe New Mexican, I think was quoted. The other I don't remember (I hope that's a real news outlet, and not some fake website)

Interesting. That's the paper we get and I don't remember seeing anything. They're still talking about additional restaurants that are opening for take out.

I'm trying to find any reference to any statement about restaurants opening up in a few weeks and can't find anything.

 

[MrockStar]

And I'm proceeding as though there never will be.



Maybe not, time will tell.

Our state today announced: All travel restrictions lifted today, malls at 50% starting Monday, churches OK as of the 8th, restaurants and Bars at 50% starting on the 8th. Movie theaters and pools on the 24th, and so on. Essentially everything open July 4th including fairs. (Social distancing still encouraged)

Let's not forget the multiple waves which hit during the 1918 pandemic and the potential for a similar path this year.

View attachment 19960

Would you Please same the same chart for the 1968/1969 Hong Hong Flu Pandemic which I lived through where we didnt SHUT anything down here.

 

[MrockStar]

And I'm proceeding as though there never will be.



Maybe not, time will tell.

Our state today announced: All travel restrictions lifted today, malls at 50% starting Monday, churches OK as of the 8th, restaurants and Bars at 50% starting on the 8th. Movie theaters and pools on the 24th, and so on. Essentially everything open July 4th including fairs. (Social distancing still encouraged)

Please tell me which state your in so i can plan my summer vacation there so i can ESCAPE the draconian lock down here in Michigan. Thanks.

 

[geoand]

I’m surprised over all the expert opinions

 

[rapmarks]

I heard this report on the news tonight. Being over 70, doesn’t leave me me hopeful

 

[Pathways]

Please tell me which state your in so i can plan my summer vacation there so i can ESCAPE the draconian lock down here in Michigan. Thanks.

What, you don't agree it's way too dangerous to head upstate to open up your cottage?

Wonder what the Yooper's are saying.

 

[MrockStar]

What, you don't agree it's way too dangerous to head upstate to open up your cottage?

Wonder what the Yooper's are saying.

Iam going there tonight, of course no stoping and i packed my cooler. Pluse Kyacing is now allowed there so all is good.

 

[PigsDad]

@isisdave -- thank you for your response. You raised some great questions and I agree that there are still many unknowns out there.

I just wanted to comment on one thing you mentioned:

I too am anxious to get out and resume having fun.

I'm probably overracting, but that wording kind of struck a nerve with me. I get the feeling that many who think we need to keep the SIP orders in place for an extended time believe that the reason those of us who are in favor of starting to relax those orders is because we want to get back to "having fun". Even though I am personally in a good position financially and am healthy, "having fun" is not the driving reason I advocate to start loosening the restrictions. I am truly concerned that so many of our fellow Americans are out of a job and will be facing unsurmountable financial hurdles if the economy does not start opening up soon. That is why I advocate for reasonable steps to start the economy back up.

Kurt

 

[Pathways]

Interesting. That's the paper we get and I don't remember seeing anything. They're still talking about additional restaurants that are opening for take out.

I'm trying to find any reference to any statement about restaurants opening up in a few weeks and can't find anything.

Quick online search at Sante Fe-New Mexican found this: "Lujan Grisham said that if people continue to stay away from one another, practice safe pandemic hygiene and limit travel outside the home, restaurants, gyms, salons and other services could begin to open at a limited capacity as soon as mid-May "

My guess is that's the quote that was used, but they changed the 'mid-May' to May 15th in the U.S. summary I was reading.

 

[Pathways]

Iam going there tonight, of course no stoping and i packed my cooler. Pluse Kyacing is now allowed there so all is good.

The important thing is, if I owned a cottage in MI, I could go there no problem. It was just off limits to MICHIGAN owners

 

[Luanne]

Quick online search at Sante Fe-New Mexican found this: "Lujan Grisham said that if people continue to stay away from one another, practice safe pandemic hygiene and limit travel outside the home, restaurants, gyms, salons and other services could begin to open at a limited capacity as soon as mid-May "

My guess is that's the quote that was used, but they changed the 'mid-May' to May 15th in the U.S. summary I was reading.

I'll take a look. The Albuquerque newspaper was talking about how they might start opening but stated there was no date. That was from an article the end of April.

Found the article. I guess we'll have to see how we do and whether those additional businesses will open. I've heard the gym I go to has no plans to open any time soon.

 

[PigsDad]

Denmark has a population of 5.7 million. I live in the DFW area with a population of 7.6 million. Now think of the other USA metro areas. Think that's an accurate comparison?

There are 29 states with a total population of less than 5.7 million, so yes, I do believe that is an appropriate comparison in a conversation about certain states relaxing their SIP orders. And I would venture to guess that most if not all of those states have a lower population density than Denmark.

Kurt