re: Craig. Extremely unlikely because HGVC owns the main resort building and pool amenities used by their own facilities and cost shared with the affiliate lodges. They also directly own the suites on-site. The lodges could vote to leave but then they lose the pool, gaming and other amenities. Unlikely.
In the case of Coy, a poor reputation hotel chain had taken over the main resort building and pool amenities making it difficult to control fees and manage resort quality.
HGVC would be more likely to drop an affiliate where they do not have an ownership investment on site. Possibly Dunkeld, some Florida Gulf, Trump, or Grand Pacific if they were taken over by a group that was difficult to deal with, or a competitor like MVC, HICV, or Wyndham acquires Grand Pacific, Trump, or a Gulf Coast property. The odds of a competitor buying Craig lodges given HGVC owns the amenities and grounds is almost nil.
The only thing Craig has in common with Coy is that it is in Scotland. Which makes it no more likely than an affiliate elsewhere. Given the investment above, I would argue less likely.