On this topic.. does anyone think prices for HGVC will ever recover? At this point it seems that HGVC has stopped exercising ROFR on anything at any price. If the OP waits a year or two, does he do any better than he does now?
ROFR artificially inflated the resale market since the goal was always to make a purchase at a price that would pass. Now that there is no longer a concern, the general rule of $1 per platinum point has flown out the window.
I assume HGVC will start exercising again at some point, but does it ever reach the levels it had before or do they get even more selective with respect to the property?
Do HGVC prices rebound and hold the line at certain purchase price if HGVC continues to let the free market dictate the value? Do they all basically free fall into giveaways with the exception of a few select Hawaiian and Vegas properties?
I know there was a pause in ROFR around 15/16 where some deals slid through but prices generally held/rebounded. Any guesses as to how this one plays out?
JUST MY TWO CENTS...
If the OP waits a year or two, does he do any better than he does now?
Years before COVID-19, Bay Club had been given away for free several times on TUG so I personally would not wait. Waiting will only mean more sellers = more competition..
I assume HGVC will start exercising again at some point, but does it ever reach the levels it had before or do they get even more selective with respect to the property?
Yes, ROFR will eventually resume again. HGVC has always been selective when it comes to ROFR.
Yes, I believe they will be even more selective going forward.
Do HGVC prices rebound and hold the line at certain purchase price if HGVC continues to let the free market dictate the value? Do they all basically free fall into giveaways with the exception of a few select Hawaiian and Vegas properties?
What’s that saying “Plan for the worst and hope for the best.”
Rule of thumb - only buy what you need 
.
Honestly, no one has a crystal ball. The fall will vary. Room types/sizes that are limited in quantity may not fall as fast as other rooms at the same location. It also doesn’t help when newer resorts require a substantial higher number of points which make older properties with lower point values less attractive.
What we do know, is that some owners will be willing to giveaway their week(s) just to get out and others will try to get something back which is why asking prices vary greatly. Keep in mind, some owners were sold on the idea that this was an investment and some spent tens or hundreds of thousands for their ownership. However any time you have a larger number of timeshare owners competing for a slim number of buyers, the best price becomes the decision maker. Most buyers are going to try to strike a deal with the seller offering the lowest price and work their way up. Those insisting on a higher asking price will eventually give up and start lowering their prices once reality sinks which may trigger others to lower their prices to stay competitive. This is not unique to HGVC, it happens industry wide (except for DVC).
Here are some old TUG posts regarding the previous decline in HGVC prices.
From a 2008 TUG thread titled “High QualityTimeshare Resale Prices Plummeting” (
link)
QUOTE:
For a long time, the resale prices of the Hilton (HGVC) Orlando & LV resorts were pretty stable.
Platinum pts sold for about $2.00/pt or ~$14,000 for a 7000 pt 2 bd week
Gold points sold for about $1.50 - $1.60/pt or about $8000 for a 5000 pt 2 bd week
This is no longer true!!
The price for HGVC has gone down significantly in the past 4-6 months.
I'd guess that you can easily find Plat pts for $1.50 -$1.60 ( a Tugger got some 2 months ago for $1.40 )
And I'd guess that you can get gold pts for $1.25/pt or less.
So this is an example of the significant drop in the resale prices of a "top of the line" TS system.
From a 2019 TUG thread titled “Timeshares never came back after the recession of 2008. Resales are not recovering value” (
link)
QUOTE:
In regards to Hilton (since I have 5 resale contracts in my portfolio):
None of them have "held" their value, except possibly the last two.
I'll have to double-check my numbers, but I'm fairly certain:
In 2011 I purchase 3,400 points resale in Vegas (gold week) for $3,200
Today I'd be lucky to get $1,000 for that. probably $500 or give away.
In 2011 I purchased a 3 BR Gold in Vegas 7,000 points for $9,500
Today I'd probably get maybe $4,000 for that.
In 2015 I purchased a 5,000 point 2 BR Gold in Vegas for $2,500
Today I might be lucky to get $1,500 for that
In 2017 I purchased a 7,000 point 2 BR Platinum at Flamingo for $2,500 That was an anomaly
I could probably sell this one for $5,000. Maybe more? (Flamingo has no ROFR so they tend to go slightly higher)
In 2019 I got a "free" HGVC Seawatch on the Beach. It's week 32 "gold" = 3,500 points. 2 BR fixed week.
Probably would also have to give it away if/when I sell it, but it's an affiliate so maybe get $500 for it (but it's not prime week).
Excluding my anomaly purchase, all have not "held" value if you mean it's less than what I paid for it. But not necessarily $0 except for 1 or 2.
Disney, on the other hand.....
