[Closed - new thread started] Will Hawaii Open by [OCTOBER???] [Please use this thread for all Hawaii Coronavirus discussions]

[Tamaradarann]

I don't blame them, currently, but for a very different reason. I don't blame them because they don't yet have in place the necessary systems, protocols, etc., to provide adequate protection against new community spread. With testing of incoming people, testing of symptomatic people, and contact tracing -- none of which was available when the virus first showed up -- Hawaii has more than adequate medical resources and would NOT be over burdened (they didn't overwhelm their resources even when they did not have any of those things).

It is not about the medical resources. It is about the ability to minimize risk and contain/prevent community spread.

I understand your point that it is essential to have the necessary systems, protocols etc in place, however, the bottom line in the end is that Hawaii would not have adequate medical resources if the took off the quarantine and opened up May 15th.

If Hawaii took off the quarantine and opened up May 15th without the necessary systems, protocols etc. many people would be coming to the island very shortly. Some would be bring the virus. In awhile there would be community spread in addtion to more people coming with the virus. The medical resources could be overwhelmed. They didn't overwhelm their medical resources when they did not have those things because Governor Ige put the 14 day quarantine in place and in effect stopped the tourists from coming!

 

[csodjd]

I understand your point that it is essential to have the necessary systems, protocols etc in place, however, the bottom line in the end is that Hawaii would not have adequate medical resources if the took off the quarantine and opened up May 15th.

If Hawaii took off the quarantine and opened up May 15th without the necessary systems, protocols etc. many people would be coming to the island very shortly. Some would be bring the virus. In awhile there would be community spread in addtion to more people coming with the virus. The medical resources could be overwhelmed. They didn't overwhelm their medical resources when they did not have those things because Governor Ige put the 14 day quarantine in place and in effect stopped the tourists from coming!

By the time tourists stopped arriving in Hawaii in March there was wildly out of control community spread already underway. Today, with what we know, with social distancing, less crowding, face coverings, and capable testing, the risk is exponentially less than it was the day he put the quarantine in place on March 21 when restaurants were packed, airplanes were packed, etc. On March 20, how many tourists do you think were IN Hawaii carrying the virus, and spreading it unknowingly? Hundreds, I'm sure, if not thousands, assuming in the prior 7 days about 200,000 came into Hawaii.

Of course I'm certainly not advocating opening anything without a plan in place to mitigate risk. But Hawaii cannot wait until risk is mitigated to zero. It should wait until the risk is mitigated to a manageable level. There is probably no state in the Country in a better position to do that than Hawaii, even with its relatively small medical care capabilities. Even if some come in with the virus due to, say, false negative testing, as would likely happen, the use of face masks, hand sanitizing, touch-surface sanitizing, social distancing, limited eat-in restaurants, and other very basic steps would virtually eliminate spread. R0 would be way < 1.0. Add tracing and testing and there would be NO meaningful spread, save for that caused by carelessness and rule-breaking.

 

[lynne]

That is all well and good, however people are not social distancing as required and are currently breakin the stay at home order. Why do you think that visitors would comply with the social distancing protocol when on vacation? Two very recent examples?

HFD Rescues Injured Hiker From Waipio Valley Despite Darkness | Big Island Now

It was the second time over the weekend HFD conducted a helicopter rescue for a hiker disobeying Hawai‘i's mandatory stay-at-home order due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

bigislandnow.com

HFD Rescues Ill Hiker | Big Island Now

The Hawai‘i Fire Department on Sunday rescued a hiker who fell ill in the wilderness.

bigislandnow.com

 

[amy241]

That is all well and good, however people are not social distancing as required and are currently breakin the stay at home order. Why do you think that visitors would comply with the social distancing protocol when on vacation? Two very recent examples?

HFD Rescues Injured Hiker From Waipio Valley Despite Darkness | Big Island Now

It was the second time over the weekend HFD conducted a helicopter rescue for a hiker disobeying Hawai‘i's mandatory stay-at-home order due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

bigislandnow.com

HFD Rescues Ill Hiker | Big Island Now

The Hawai‘i Fire Department on Sunday rescued a hiker who fell ill in the wilderness.

bigislandnow.com

Both of these stories involve residents not tourists so not really examples but it could have easily been tourists.

 

[lynne]

Both of these stories involve residents not tourists so not really examples but it could have easily been tourists.

You are correct Amy, these were residents. My point was that residents are not adhering to the stay at home order so how can we expect visitors to comply when they are on vacation and only here for a limited time.

 

[amy241]

You are correct Amy, these were residents. My point was that residents are not adhering to the stay at home order so how can we expect visitors to comply when they are on vacation and only here for a limited time.

I hear you! That’s a very good point. Not everyone feels inclined to follow rules.

 

[Tamaradarann]

By the time tourists stopped arriving in Hawaii in March there was wildly out of control community spread already underway. Today, with what we know, with social distancing, less crowding, face coverings, and capable testing, the risk is exponentially less than it was the day he put the quarantine in place on March 21 when restaurants were packed, airplanes were packed, etc. On March 20, how many tourists do you think were IN Hawaii carrying the virus, and spreading it unknowingly? Hundreds, I'm sure, if not thousands, assuming in the prior 7 days about 200,000 came into Hawaii.

Of course I'm certainly not advocating opening anything without a plan in place to mitigate risk. But Hawaii cannot wait until risk is mitigated to zero. It should wait until the risk is mitigated to a manageable level. There is probably no state in the Country in a better position to do that than Hawaii, even with its relatively small medical care capabilities. Even if some come in with the virus due to, say, false negative testing, as would likely happen, the use of face masks, hand sanitizing, touch-surface sanitizing, social distancing, limited eat-in restaurants, and other very basic steps would virtually eliminate spread. R0 would be way < 1.0. Add tracing and testing and there would be NO meaningful spread, save for that caused by carelessness and rule-breaking.

We were in the Lagoon Tower on March 21st and had reservations until May 2. Even though not yet in effect the 14 day quanantine was annouced and plane travel and the numbe of tourist in Hawaii was already reduced due to the virus concerns all over the world. There were 76 confirmed cases to date at that time. There was some, but very little community spread at that time. Social distancing was already ordered. The Hale Koa was closed. They had already closed 4 of the buildings at the Hilton Hawaiian Village. Even though we wanted to stay and felt staying would be safer than flying back to NY they told us that the census of guests at the Hilton Hawaiian Village very low and in a week we were going to be the only ones left so they felt they were going to close. No new guests were checking in. The streets were already comparently very empty, restaurants only had take out, the beaches were closed, many of the stores on Kalakaua and the Mall were closed. We knew the quarantine would prevent most tourists from coming in and it was going to get worse. We left on the second to last direct flight to NY.

There is great pent up desire to get back to normal. Hawaii has always been a prime vacation destination and if the 14 day quarantine is lifted there will be alot of people coming in. No one knows how many cases will be brought. At this time the Governor does not want to take that chance. I wouldn't either.

 

[csodjd]

There was some, but very little community spread at that time.

I believe there may have been little DETECTED or recognized community spread. But it is not credible that the community spread started only AFTER tourists stopped coming and quarantine's started. Think about it. The seeds of the virus were already there, being spread completely undetected. You're not accounting for the roughly two-week incubation or the roughly 50% asymptomatic cases. The community spread was WELL underway by mid-March, just as it was everywhere else. It's like throwing a big handfuls of seeds out in into a field and saying there's nothing growing there. It's growing, you just don't know until things start springing up two weeks later.

 

[csodjd]

That is all well and good, however people are not social distancing as required and are currently breakin the stay at home order. Why do you think that visitors would comply with the social distancing protocol when on vacation? Two very recent examples?

HFD Rescues Injured Hiker From Waipio Valley Despite Darkness | Big Island Now

It was the second time over the weekend HFD conducted a helicopter rescue for a hiker disobeying Hawai‘i's mandatory stay-at-home order due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

bigislandnow.com

HFD Rescues Ill Hiker | Big Island Now

The Hawai‘i Fire Department on Sunday rescued a hiker who fell ill in the wilderness.

bigislandnow.com

There will always be rule breakers. But just because someone got within six feet doesn't mean pow, you're infected. None of this occurs in a vacuum. It's part of a system. If Hawaii requires a test for infection either the day of departure or upon arrival, right there, at that first step, you've probably eliminated most of the new active infection. Not all. But most. They also can limit the number coming in each day, from the 30k typical, to maybe 2500 visitors. Then you have face coverings and social distancing. Taken together, the risk of spreading infection is now, in this scenario, quite small. Very few infections come in, and hopefully those few are not in the rule-breaking group. But, at the backend, you also have tracing and isolation that can easily contain any spread.

I would submit that with testing as a condition of arriving, masks, social distancing, eliminating crowed spaces, increased sanitizing of touch surfaces, and active tracing Hawaii will have FAR FAR less risk or infection or spread than they had in March.

 

[Tamaradarann]

I believe there may have been little DETECTED or recognized community spread. But it is not credible that the community spread started only AFTER tourists stopped coming and quarantine's started. Think about it. The seeds of the virus were already there, being spread completely undetected. You're not accounting for the roughly two-week incubation or the roughly 50% asymptomatic cases. The community spread was WELL underway by mid-March, just as it was everywhere else. It's like throwing a big handfuls of seeds out in into a field and saying there's nothing growing there. It's growing, you just don't know until things start springing up two weeks later.

I agree with most of your thoughts here. I also agree with much of what you say in the next post about the need for testing, sanitation, masks, social distancing. I believe that Hawaii needs to stay closed and keep the 14 day quarantine at the present time. Where we disagree is:

- At this time they don't have a testing system in place for all incoming passengers. I believe it needs to be before allincoming flights.
- Once the 14 day quarantine requirement is lifted the number of visitors will exceed 2500. In fact once school is out it may return to close to 30K.
- People are getting tired of wearing masks. The number that will not wear them could be significant particularly on a hot sunny beach.
- With so few people in Waikiki at present it is easy to social distance. As the number of tourist increases significantly social distancing will decrease.
- With the nunber of people coming into Hawaii now it would be easy to do do testing and tracing of those that are symptomatic and since there are so few cases the chances of spread are minimum. However, once the number of tourist increases significantly this will not be a manageable effort and the amount of spread will be greater.

 

[csodjd]

- At this time they don't have a testing system in place for all incoming passengers. I believe it needs to be before all incoming flights.
- Once the 14 day quarantine requirement is lifted the number of visitors will exceed 2500. In fact once school is out it may return to close to 30K.
- People are getting tired of wearing masks. The number that will not wear them could be significant particularly on a hot sunny beach.
- With so few people in Waikiki at present it is easy to social distance. As the number of tourist increases significantly social distancing will decrease.
- With the nunber of people coming into Hawaii now it would be easy to do do testing and tracing of those that are symptomatic and since there are so few cases the chances of spread are minimum. However, once the number of tourist increases significantly this will not be a manageable effort and the amount of spread will be greater.

We don't disagree on the first point at all. I just said that they need to be working on that now so it is ready when the time comes.
On the second point, if allowed, yes, you are correct. My suggestion is that the state can exercise some control over that because there's only one way in, air. So they can limit the number of arriving flights as they ramp up the ability to handle incoming tourists.
On wearing masks, it's less or not necessary where you are six feet from anyone. The six-foot distance and the masks are to achieve the same purpose -- keep virus from leaving you and reaching someone else. (Masks also keep you from leaving virus on tables, etc.). If you're on the beach, 10 feet from the next social group, a mask does nothing. If you're in a line waiting to pick up food, a mask does help. So there will need to be some thought about it. That said, a lot of people will wear masks. We should not be unwilling to move ahead because of the risk of rule breakers. That's basically letting them win.
On your next point, the difficulties of social distancing, you have to step back to the starting premise (and this applies to masks also). That premise is that there are very few people coming in that are in fact infected -- because they've all been tested. Assuming 5% of people are unknowingly infected, a number probably well above reality, and assuming a 15% false negative rate, that's .75%. If 2500 people are coming in, that's not many infected people, less than 20, and they are spread around Hawaii. The risk then of infection because there are SOME instances of inadequate social distancing or not wearing a mask is quite small.

And that brings us to your final point, the only one we really disagree on. I disagree and I think ALL the data supports my view. We need only look at Hawaii in early March, when the first orders were going into place. At that time 30,000/day were coming in from around the world unchecked, there was virus across the state, unknown infected people, community spread, asymptomatic people, no testing at all, and no treatment protocols. It was the wild west. And the state managed it quite well. Very few died. The hospital system was never overrun. Compare that to now, where there is testing, we know a lot, soon we'll have tracing apps, etc. (One country is having restaurants ask patrons to provide their name and contact info so that IF tracing is needed, they can be easily contacted. Clever idea.) You are making a supposition for which there is no factual support, no evidence, and is contrary to the recent experience. I believe the state has demonstrated it can MANAGE a known enemy.

 

[csodjd]

This is from an article today in Hawaii News Now:

By HNN Staff | May 11, 2020 at 2:22 PM HST - Updated May 11 at 8:40 PM
***

“At some point, we have to accept risk, and we have to accept the fact that people will become infected,” said Maj. Gen. Kenneth Hara, the state’s incident commander for coronavirus response. “We need to try to push it to the threshold of what our healthcare system can handle without exceeding the ICU and the ventilator capacity.” ... “If we let the economy go the way it’s going, I feel there could be significant civil unrest that could lead to civil disobedience and, in the worst case civil disturbance and rioting,” Maj. Gen. Hara said.

It is an important point. Hawaii cannot be made and kept COVID free, at least not without total irreparable economic destruction. You cannot tax the residents enough to make up for the lost tourism revenue to governmental operations. And the residents cannot circulate enough money among themselves to support an economy. They need tourism. That means they must accept risk. I'm not sure they need to "push it to the threshold." But they also cannot wait until they can ensure a virus free society, because that's an unattainable goal. This virus exists. Just like TB, AIDS, and a bunch of other illnesses. They should open slowly so they can manage infection as they go. But that "opening" must cross into tourism, and not stop at that step just because it means the virus will be back. Yes, it will be back. But this time the state is ready for it.

 

[Tamaradarann]

This is from an article today in Hawaii News Now:

By HNN Staff | May 11, 2020 at 2:22 PM HST - Updated May 11 at 8:40 PM
***

“At some point, we have to accept risk, and we have to accept the fact that people will become infected,” said Maj. Gen. Kenneth Hara, the state’s incident commander for coronavirus response. “We need to try to push it to the threshold of what our healthcare system can handle without exceeding the ICU and the ventilator capacity.” ... “If we let the economy go the way it’s going, I feel there could be significant civil unrest that could lead to civil disobedience and, in the worst case civil disturbance and rioting,” Maj. Gen. Hara said.

It is an important point. Hawaii cannot be made and kept COVID free, at least not without total irreparable economic destruction. You cannot tax the residents enough to make up for the lost tourism revenue to governmental operations. And the residents cannot circulate enough money among themselves to support an economy. They need tourism. That means they must accept risk. I'm not sure they need to "push it to the threshold." But they also cannot wait until they can ensure a virus free society, because that's an unattainable goal. This virus exists. Just like TB, AIDS, and a bunch of other illnesses. They should open slowly so they can manage infection as they go. But that "opening" must cross into tourism, and not stop at that step just because it means the virus will be back. Yes, it will be back. But this time the state is ready for it.

I agree with you and Major General Hara, Hawaii must be opened up soon. Hawaii needs tourists to have a viable economy. I've stated that before on this thread. For me the most important protection point is testing and getting results before getting on the plane. If that can be done I am in total support of Hawaii opening. Since I don't think that masks, social distancing, and tracing will work once thousands of visitors come each day and I wouldn't rely on those methods to control the spread of infection.

I believe that rather than trying to limit the number of visitors that come each day the limiting crtieria should be the number of passengers that can be tested with results before getting on the plane. I believe that would prevent the spread effectively enough to allow Hawaii to start the opening process. I feel it is really important economically for Hawaii to be open by summer when the prime vacation period in the US starts which is about a month from now.

 

[lynne]

Gov. Ige does not believe that there will be civil unrest in the state

Gov. Ige: Civil unrest unlikely - West Hawaii Today

Gov. David Ige said Monday he doesn’t think Hawaii’s current economic crisis in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to civil unrest.

www.westhawaiitoday.com

As some suggested that Hawaii limit the number of planes/visitors, they simply cannot as the FAA has jurisdiction and not the state of Hawaii.
Josh Green is introducing a plan to bring tourism back but it will be based on testing prior to getting on an aircraft.

Green Announces ‘Travel With Aloha’ Program | Big Island Now

Lieutenant Governor Josh Green on Monday announced his "Travel With Aloha" initiative, which proposes all those who want to travel to Hawai‘i receive a rapid turnaround test for COVID-19.

bigislandnow.com

 

[slip]

The Lt. Governor has hinted that restruants and Salons may be able to open by 05-25.

I don’t see all travel opening for summer unless things change very quickly. We may get more information once inter-island travel is opened but they have been closed lipped on that also.

 

[csodjd]

Testing before getting on the plane has obvious and numerous advantages. The disadvantage is that Hawaii does not then have actual control over it. Using Austria as an example, they are doing it themselves upon arrival. If you pass their test, you're free to go. If you do not, you must fly back or quarantine.

But it can all be handled much like passports. You don't get on a plane to the US without showing your passport, and you then do so again in customs when you arrive. There is a model there that can be adapted to testing.

 

[csodjd]

The Lt. Governor has hinted that restruants and Salons may be able to open by 05-25.

I don’t see all travel opening for summer unless things change very quickly. We may get more information once inter-island travel is opened but they have been closed lipped on that also.

Seems to me the easy thing is to leave the 14-day quarantine order in place, and create exceptions to it. For instance, if you are tested within 24 hours of arrival and have a properly issued (not sure what that is) certification of negative result, the quarantine would not apply. Or, perhaps, Hawaii can empower "at home" testing services that are state-authorized. Everyone is subject to quarantine until they are tested at their location and given an all clear.

 

[slip]

Seems to me the easy thing is to leave the 14-day quarantine order in place, and create exceptions to it. For instance, if you are tested within 24 hours of arrival and have a properly issued (not sure what that is) certification of negative result, the quarantine would not apply. Or, perhaps, Hawaii can empower "at home" testing services that are state-authorized. Everyone is subject to quarantine until they are tested at their location and given an all clear.

They have a lot of things to think about and the only thing we can do is wait and see what they come up with and decide on.

 

[csodjd]

They have a lot of things to think about and the only thing we can do is wait and see what they come up with and decide on.

That is true. It would be nice, perhaps comforting, for those in charge, the Governor, Mayors, etc., to at least acknowledge they know they need to get there and are working on how to make that happen. So far, from what I've read/seen, they are largely if not entirely ignoring in their public statements the tourism part of the recovery equation.

 

[slip]

That is true. It would be nice, perhaps comforting, for those in charge, the Governor, Mayors, etc., to at least acknowledge they know they need to get there and are working on how to make that happen. So far, from what I've read/seen, they are largely if not entirely ignoring in their public statements the tourism part of the recovery equation.

I listen to the Governor’s and the Honolulu Mayors press conferences everyday as part of my job and they both being very vague.

The Lt. Governor has hinted that Salons and Restaurants May be able to open on 05-25 but that was not official.

 

[GaryDouglas]

I heard that HI will make an announcement tomorrow, Thursday.

 

[Tamaradarann]

Seems to me the easy thing is to leave the 14-day quarantine order in place, and create exceptions to it. For instance, if you are tested within 24 hours of arrival and have a properly issued (not sure what that is) certification of negative result, the quarantine would not apply. Or, perhaps, Hawaii can empower "at home" testing services that are state-authorized. Everyone is subject to quarantine until they are tested at their location and given an all clear.

You typically get a lab report when you have a lab test to say you are positive or negative for something or the value and if that is within the normal range. The lab report should be sufficient to have the quarantine not apply. However, the labs would need to be on board with giving you and e-mailing you the results quickly so that you could board your plane if it is done before boarding which is the preferred method to avoid virus spread.

If it is done after you arrive it would allow you to be released from quarantine if it is negative, but if it is positive a major problem would be created tracking all the people you came in contact with at the airports, on the plane, and since you arrived. Not smart at all.

Furthermore, I would take a page from what Hawaii did when they let people disembark from the ship in Honolulu that was contaminated with the virus. They escorted all the passengers by a special bus to the airport and put them on a plane to go away. If they don't insist on everyone be tested with a negative result before they get on a plane to Hawaii, when they get off the plane if they don't have a lab certificate they are escorted to their accomodations for the 14 day quarantine so they don't start to contaminate others in Hawaii if they have the virus.

 

[csodjd]

I heard that HI will make an announcement tomorrow, Thursday.

I read this morning in a Newsweek interview that they are looking at testing before flying to the Island and are working on a proposed calendar for reopening for tourism based on the ability get that done. It seemed a bit overly hopeful because he said people would be tested at home before the come to the airport, but that's obviously not an ability that exists right now. And for many places you cannot get tested unless you "qualify" based on various criteria. (LA County now allows anyone to get tested that wants it, but that's the rare exception I believe.) So a more robust testing capability would be needed -- which wasn't helped with the report of the Abbott Lab quick test system possibly having a very high false negative problem.

 

[amy241]

Mandatory quarantine was extended through June yesterday - so Hawaii will not re-open in June.

Hawaii’s economy is reopening, but tourism remains on lockdown | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

Hawaii’s low COVID-19 infection and mortality rates have increased calls to start reopening the state’s economy — but support to restart tourism is still mixed.

www.staradvertiser.com

 

[csodjd]

Mandatory quarantine was extended through June yesterday - so Hawaii will not re-open in June.

Hawaii’s economy is reopening, but tourism remains on lockdown | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

Hawaii’s low COVID-19 infection and mortality rates have increased calls to start reopening the state’s economy — but support to restart tourism is still mixed.

www.staradvertiser.com

That seems expected. The hope is that by JULY they'll have some plans underway where they can start making exceptions to the quarantines. That now gives them a solid six weeks to figure things out. Even if tourists are not coming in during July, my guess is they'll have the plans and schedule by then. They kind of have to.