Article: Rethinking the Coronavirus Shutdown

[bluehende]

Right now in NYC health care is being rationed because of the burden seniors on putting on the system. If you want to use a different word, it's ok with me.

My 52 and 60 year old sister in law and her husband have corona, she's recovering nicely. He developed symptoms later and is doing fine. No burden.

You gave death numbers and are now talking about burden on health system. Look at case data and you will see that the young have more cases than the old. The young are certainly costing us a lot to heal from this. At least us old fogeys have the decency to die.

 

[WVBaker]

Right now in NYC health care is being rationed because of the burden seniors on putting on the system. If you want to use a different word, it's ok with me.

My 52 and 60 year old sister in law and her husband have corona, she's recovering nicely. He developed symptoms later and is doing fine. No burden.

You know what, I don't even know where to begin with your attitude and outlook. I can only offer you mine.

I think it's our duty to advocate for a system that supports them. Be it healthcare, infrastructure, housing or finance. A person can only do so much to meet their later in life needs without help. The way we treat our elders is a reflection of a society and its values. While it may vary from culture to culture and person to person, it is something that can always be improved, especially as the population share of elderly persons grows year after year.

I'm reminded of something that Pearl S. Buck said.

"Our society must make it right and possible for old people not to fear the young or be deserted by them, for the test of a civilization is the way that it cares for its helpless members."

Oh yea, keep this one very important fact in mind. Your grandparents choices in life resulted in YOU! Be grateful. Look after each other.

 

[goaliedave]

Continuing to harp on what was done or not done in the past and by whom it was done or not done serves no one. Our focus should be on what can be done going forward and trying to work together to get through this unprecedented time.

Yes. Self-isolation and physical distancing is the thing to concentrate on. Long term, study what Canada is doing and learn from it.

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[Luanne]

Yes. Self-isolation and physical distancing is the thing to concentrate on. Long term, study what Canada is doing and learn from it.

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Love Canada. But you guys aren't doing it perfectly either.

https://nationalpost.com/news/covid...lic-health-officials-urging-social-distancing

 

[goaliedave]

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[Luanne]

.

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Not sure if it's just my computer, but the headers are cut off so the data on your chart doesn't mean anything.

 

[Karen G]

Canada is considerably larger than the U.S., in sheer land mass, but has about one tenth the human population, some 36,983,180 compared to the US at 376,031,546. The entire population of Canada is about the same as can be found in the state of California.

 

[TravelTime]

Human suffering is increasing rapidly. Given its collective impact, this virus could be the worst thing we will see in our lifetimes.

**********
Coronavirus Threatens to Overwhelm Cities’ Social Safety Net
Jump in demand at food banks, soup kitchens; number of callers to crisis hotlines surges
By Douglas Belkin and Kate King | Photographs by Sarah Blesener for The Wall Street Journal
March 29, 2020 5:30 am ET

The economic shutdown caused by the coronavirus is testing America’s safety net, and the people holding it aloft are feeling the strain.

In Seattle, among the first U.S. cities where the virus was detected, a flood of people have flocked to homeless shelters, slammed suicide hotlines and packed food pantries. People at the center of the rush say that the wave is only beginning to build and that already they are struggling to meet demand.

Calls to Crisis Connections, the Seattle area’s hotlines for suicide, domestic abuse and substance abuse, have jumped 25% to about 25,000 a month since the virus was first reported, said Executive Director Allie Franklin. She said she worked two graveyard shifts in recent days because there weren’t enough volunteers or staff to man the phones.

Many of the callers have never reached out for help, Ms. Franklin said. Some are isolated, unable to go to church or work or other community events and are feeling depressed. Those with addictions call to find out which treatment facilities or AA meetings are open. And laid-off workers with little savings are calling to ask where food banks are and how they work.

“We have people entering the social safety net who have never used it before,” she said. “What if this goes on for months?”

Coronavirus Threatens to Overwhelm Cities’ Social Safety Net

The economic shutdown caused by the coronavirus is testing America’s safety net, and the people holding it aloft are feeling the strain.

www.wsj.com

 

[HitchHiker71]

Canada most likely has certain demographic and population density advantages that will benefit your country when compared to the US, but Canada is also a couple weeks behind the US in so far as the death rates are concerned along the x axis so you are simply earlier in the curve than the US:

Canada is currently tracking along the exact same trajectory as the U.K.:

I pray your country can blunt the curve just like everyone else - but the data tells the story - Canada is about a week behind the U.K. at present. Your healthcare system will most likely also be overwhelmed by the coronavirus within the next ten days. The coronavirus doesn’t discriminate between multi-payer vs single payer healthcare systems - just ask Italy - which has a single payer system, along with most of the EU countries.

The only countries that have done well to date are Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Vietnam (Japan appears to be doing well but the consensus is that they have a data reporting problem). They didn’t do well because of superior healthcare systems - they did well because they adopted a combination of aggressive widespread testing, social distancing, quarantining and contact tracing before the outbreaks took hold.

I pray whatever Canada is doing produces the results that we see from South Korea - blunting the curve and saving many lives in the process.


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[geekette]

Canada is considerably larger than the U.S., in sheer land mass, but has about one tenth the human population, some 36,983,180 compared to the US at 376,031,546. The entire population of Canada is about the same as can be found in the state of California.

I would like to say thank you for distilling this to make it relatable.

 

[DrQ]

Human suffering is increasing rapidly. Given its collective impact, this virus could be the worst thing we will see in our lifetimes.

**********
Coronavirus Threatens to Overwhelm Cities’ Social Safety Net
Jump in demand at food banks, soup kitchens; number of callers to crisis hotlines surges
By Douglas Belkin and Kate King | Photographs by Sarah Blesener for The Wall Street Journal
March 29, 2020 5:30 am ET

We may consider contributing extra to our local food banks.

 

[Roger830]

You gave death numbers and are now talking about burden on health system. Look at case data and you will see that the young have more cases than the old. The young are certainly costing us a lot to heal from this. At least us old fogeys have the decency to die.

if you know the case numbers, publish them, nobody else has that knowledge.

My sister in law was tested and 3 days later the results came back positive. Her husband came down with the same symptoms, asked his doctor if he should be tested and he told him no, just assume that he is positive and act accordingly. That small sample indicates the actual cases are twice what has been reported. I'm assuming that it's higher. There's evidence that half infected don't have any symptoms.

 

[am1]

Canada is larger with a tenth of the population but most of it is concentrated along the US border.

 

[DrQ]

The only countries that have done well to date are Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Vietnam (Japan appears to be doing well but the consensus is that they have a data reporting problem). They didn’t do well because of superior healthcare systems - they did well because they adopted a combination of aggressive widespread testing, social distancing, quarantining and contact tracing before the outbreaks took hold.

In the US, until we can get the aggressive testing in place, the only tools we have are social distancing and widespread quarantining. Back in my quality improvement days ... you can't improve a process until you can measure it. Right now, I would SWAG that for every positive test we have, there are 500 in the community that have not been measured.

 

[Roger830]

You know what, I don't even know where to begin with your attitude and outlook.

You're misunderstanding what I'm saying.
When I said that seniors are a burden to the system, I'm just describing the situation as I see it, not that they shouldn't receive what they are entitled to.

 

[HitchHiker71]

if you know the case numbers, publish them, nobody else has that knowledge.

My sister in law was tested and 3 days later the results came back positive. Her husband came down with the same symptoms, asked his doctor if he should be tested and he told him no, just assume that he is positive and act accordingly. That small sample indicates the actual cases are twice what has been reported. I'm assuming that it's higher. There's evidence that half infected don't have any symptoms.

I’m not sure exactly how we are defining case numbers, but I’m assuming we are defining the number of actual reported cases. If so, this is a dashboard that is pulling data from the Johns Hopkins database. The JH dashboard for laptops/desktops is here:

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com

The mobile device version is here:

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

This mobile device live dashboard, pulling from the same data source, I find to be most useful to easily look at to answer case related questions:

Coronavirus Dashboard

Live coronavirus dashboard tracker. See data, maps, social media trends, and learn about prevention measures.

ncov2019.live

Hope this helps...


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[Rolltydr]

Continuing to harp on what was done or not done in the past and by whom it was done or not done serves no one. Our focus should be on what can be done going forward and trying to work together to get through this unprecedented time.

In order to know what to do going forward, we have to understand what worked, and didn’t work, in the past. Right now may not be the time, but after this is over, we absolutely must do a complete review of the response so we can have a better response next time around.


Harry

 

[TravelTime]

Another sad story of how the shutdowns are affecting poor people. It is really bad in India. These are the kinds of stories that have me asking whether the cure is worse than the disease. That relates to the other article I posted calling this a “white collar quarantine.“ Those of us who are blessed and privileged with being able to work from home, still have jobs and have savings will survive just fine with staying at home for an indefinite period of time. But millions of the world’s poor are suffering immediately. In the USA, overall we are lucky. Our pain will be nothing compared to what people in poorer countries will experience.

***********

India’s Coronavirus Lockdown Leaves Vast Numbers Stranded and Hungry
Millions of migrant laborers in Indian cities live and eat where they work, and the sudden shutdown of businesses has upended their lives. Anger is rising.

NEW DELHI — In one of the biggest migrations in India’s modern history, hundreds of thousands of migrant laborers have begun long journeys on foot to get home, having been rendered homeless and jobless by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s nationwide lockdown to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

With businesses shut down in cities across the country, vast numbers of migrants — many of whom lived and ate where they worked — were suddenly without food and shelter. Soup kitchens in Delhi, the capital, have been overwhelmed.

Thousands of migrants in Delhi, including whole families, packed their pots, pans and blankets into rucksacks, some balancing children on their shoulders as they walked along interstate highways. Some planned to walk hundreds of miles. But as they reached the Delhi border, many were beaten back by the police.

“You fear the disease, living on the streets. But I fear hunger more, not corona,” said Papu, 32, who came to Delhi three weeks ago for work and was now trying to return to his home in Saharanpur in the state of Uttar Pradesh, 125 miles away.

While dozens of countries across the world are under lockdown to contain the virus’s spread, in crowded and impoverished places like India, many fear that the measures could spark social unrest. Millions of people live in Indian slums, and staying at home for three weeks — as Mr. Modi has ordered — is a daunting prospect in such places, where dozens of family members often share a few rooms.

Migrant laborers have been protesting the lockdown across India. On Saturday, thousands came out to the streets in the southern state of Kerala, saying they had not eaten in days. The authorities urged them to disperse for their own safety, but they ignored the commands.....

India’s Coronavirus Lockdown Leaves Vast Numbers Stranded and Hungry (Published 2020)

The sudden shutdown of businesses has upended the lives of millions of migrant laborers in Indian cities. More than a dozen migrants have died, and anger is rising.

www.nytimes.com

 

[HitchHiker71]

In the US, until we can get the aggressive testing in place, the only tools we have are social distancing and widespread quarantining. Back in my quality improvement days ... you can't improve a process until you can measure it. Right now, I would SWAG that for every positive test we have, there are 500 in the community that have not been measured.

Agree 100%. My personal management approach always been an evidence based approach and I often reference the same phrase you mention, we cannot manage what we are not measuring, except via sentiment. While sentiment is always valuable, sentiment without underlying evidence can be dangerous from a decision making perspective.

I’m pretty sure I’ve said I think we need a two pronged approach with regard to testing, so I won’t repeat myself again here.


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[HitchHiker71]

Duplicate post.

 

[dioxide45]

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I have yet to see a state by state chart similar to this. Does anyone know if such a chart exists?

 

[DrQ]

Obviously there is no specific age, I talking about seniors as a group. Individually it's probably a function of one's assets and health.

SS, medicare, state pensions are underfunded. Now massive deficit spending could lead to runaway inflation.

First they came for the Communists
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Communist ... Is this how it begins?

 

[Rolltydr]

Obviously there is no specific age, I talking about seniors as a group. Individually it's probably a function of one's assets and health.

SS, medicare, state pensions are underfunded. Now massive deficit spending could lead to runaway inflation.

Could pigs fly?


Harry

 

[TravelTime]

Another sad story of how the shutdowns are affecting poor people. It is really bad in India. These are the kinds of stories that have me asking whether the cure is worse than the disease. That relates to the other article I posted calling this a “white collar quarantine.“ Those of us who are blessed and privileged with being able to work from home, still have jobs and have savings will survive just fine with staying at home for an indefinite period of time. But millions of the world’s poor are suffering immediately. In the USA, overall we are lucky. Our pain will be nothing compared to what people in poorer countries will experience.

***********

India’s Coronavirus Lockdown Leaves Vast Numbers Stranded and Hungry
Millions of migrant laborers in Indian cities live and eat where they work, and the sudden shutdown of businesses has upended their lives. Anger is rising.

NEW DELHI — In one of the biggest migrations in India’s modern history, hundreds of thousands of migrant laborers have begun long journeys on foot to get home, having been rendered homeless and jobless by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s nationwide lockdown to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

With businesses shut down in cities across the country, vast numbers of migrants — many of whom lived and ate where they worked — were suddenly without food and shelter. Soup kitchens in Delhi, the capital, have been overwhelmed.

Thousands of migrants in Delhi, including whole families, packed their pots, pans and blankets into rucksacks, some balancing children on their shoulders as they walked along interstate highways. Some planned to walk hundreds of miles. But as they reached the Delhi border, many were beaten back by the police.

“You fear the disease, living on the streets. But I fear hunger more, not corona,” said Papu, 32, who came to Delhi three weeks ago for work and was now trying to return to his home in Saharanpur in the state of Uttar Pradesh, 125 miles away.

While dozens of countries across the world are under lockdown to contain the virus’s spread, in crowded and impoverished places like India, many fear that the measures could spark social unrest. Millions of people live in Indian slums, and staying at home for three weeks — as Mr. Modi has ordered — is a daunting prospect in such places, where dozens of family members often share a few rooms.

Migrant laborers have been protesting the lockdown across India. On Saturday, thousands came out to the streets in the southern state of Kerala, saying they had not eaten in days. The authorities urged them to disperse for their own safety, but they ignored the commands.....

India’s Coronavirus Lockdown Leaves Vast Numbers Stranded and Hungry (Published 2020)

The sudden shutdown of businesses has upended the lives of millions of migrant laborers in Indian cities. More than a dozen migrants have died, and anger is rising.

www.nytimes.com

I just need to add one more quote from the article:
“This may have been a good decision for the wealthy, but not those of us with no money,” said Deepak Kumar, a 28-year-old truck driver, referring to the lockdown.

 

[HitchHiker71]

I have yet to see a state by state chart similar to this. Does anyone know if such a chart exists?

I don’t have a chart just like these by US state, I do have a HEAT map for the US:

https://ig.ft.com/autograph/graphics/coronavirus-map-united-states.svg?frame=webS

It’s all available for free here:

Coronavirus tracker: the latest figures as countries fight the Covid-19 resurgence | Free to read

The FT analyses the scale of outbreaks and tracks the vaccine rollouts around the world

www.ft.com

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