[ 2020 ] Predictions of Change

[PigsDad]

Good luck to USD as there is no faster way to devalue currency than printing notes.

It's all relative. If other countries are doing the same thing, it is less likely to devalue the USD against other currencies.

Kurt

 

[VacationForever]

It's all relative. If other countries are doing the same thing, it is less likely to devalue the USD against other currencies.

Kurt

But if we are talking about printing notes to cancel out our deficit then it is definitely going to be significant devaluation of USD. Most first world countries don't run deficits like we do.

 

[TravelTime]

Good luck to USD as there is no faster way to devalue currency than printing notes.

Yes, that is what I thought so I was wondering why the USA would just start printing money. I have not researched the current situation so I am just going off my previous education in economics.

 

[Brett]

Yes, that is what I thought so I was wondering why the USA would just start printing money. I have not researched the current situation so I am just going off my previous education in economics.

yes - government printing money is bad
government decreasing debt is good
government spending money to save the economy .........................................................

 

[MrockStar]

Since we abandoned the Gold standard a while ago its all bases on the good faith of the American people in the fiscal integrity of the Federal government.

 

[TravelTime]

Working for home may be the future. I was skeptical that companies would change permanently but it looks like many are considering it. I hope work from home becomes the standard.

---------

Manhattan Faces a Reckoning if Working From Home Becomes the Norm
Even after the crisis eases, companies may let workers stay home. That would affect an entire ecosystem, from transit to restaurants to shops. Not to mention the tax base.

Before the coronavirus crisis, three of New York City’s largest commercial tenants — Barclays, JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley — had tens of thousands of workers in towers across Manhattan. Now, as the city wrestles with when and how to reopen, executives at all three firms have decided that it is highly unlikely that all their workers will ever return to those buildings.

The research firm Nielsen has arrived at a similar conclusion. Even after the crisis has passed, its 3,000 workers in the city will no longer need to be in the office full-time and can instead work from home most of the week.

The real estate company Halstead has 32 branches across the city and region. But its chief executive, who now conducts business over video calls, is mulling reducing its footprint.......

.....But now, as the pandemic eases its grip, companies are considering not just how to safely bring back employees, but whether all of them need to come back at all. They were forced by the crisis to figure out how to function productively with workers operating from home — and realized unexpectedly that it was not all bad.

If that’s the case, they are now wondering whether it’s worth continuing to spend as much money on Manhattan’s exorbitant commercial rents. They are also mindful that public health considerations might make the packed workplaces of the recent past less viable......

Manhattan Faces a Reckoning if Working From Home Becomes the Norm (Published 2020)

Even after the crisis eases, companies may let workers stay home. That would affect an entire ecosystem, from transit to restaurants to shops. Not to mention the tax base.

www.nytimes.com

 

[MrockStar]

Urban Farming may make a comeback, like here in Detroit.

 

[Miss Marty]

*
Predictions of Change for the people of Detroit and some other cities

I think more people in Detroit will appreciate fast food restaurants
that have "Bullet Proof Glass" that helps to protect staff from robberies
and now will also help protect people from the spread of Coronavirus..

Google - Youtube: Detroit bullet proof glass - search
(Burger King, McDonalds, Kentucky Fried Chicken, Subway, etc)

 

[Brett]

Working for home may be the future. I was skeptical that companies would change permanently but it looks like many are considering it. I hope work from home becomes the standard.

---------

Manhattan Faces a Reckoning if Working From Home Becomes the Norm
Even after the crisis eases, companies may let workers stay home. That would affect an entire ecosystem, from transit to restaurants to shops. Not to mention the tax base.

Before the coronavirus crisis, three of New York City’s largest commercial tenants — Barclays, JP Morgan Chase and Morgan Stanley — had tens of thousands of workers in towers across Manhattan. Now, as the city wrestles with when and how to reopen, executives at all three firms have decided that it is highly unlikely that all their workers will ever return to those buildings.

The research firm Nielsen has arrived at a similar conclusion. Even after the crisis has passed, its 3,000 workers in the city will no longer need to be in the office full-time and can instead work from home most of the week.

The real estate company Halstead has 32 branches across the city and region. But its chief executive, who now conducts business over video calls, is mulling reducing its footprint.......

.....But now, as the pandemic eases its grip, companies are considering not just how to safely bring back employees, but whether all of them need to come back at all. They were forced by the crisis to figure out how to function productively with workers operating from home — and realized unexpectedly that it was not all bad.

If that’s the case, they are now wondering whether it’s worth continuing to spend as much money on Manhattan’s exorbitant commercial rents. They are also mindful that public health considerations might make the packed workplaces of the recent past less viable......

Manhattan Faces a Reckoning if Working From Home Becomes the Norm (Published 2020)

Even after the crisis eases, companies may let workers stay home. That would affect an entire ecosystem, from transit to restaurants to shops. Not to mention the tax base.

www.nytimes.com

working from home could be the new norm if it saves $$$
https://www.forbes.com/sites/enriquedans/2020/06/06/working-from-home-its-now-athing/#182c6f1e5d54

 

[WalnutBaron]

A friend of mine who sells residential real estate in San Francisco tells me that he doesn't like the trends in the local market due to a high increase in work-from-home employees who no longer are asked to commute to The City 5-6 days per week. The number of new listings has plunged, and the shorter supply of homes on the market is the only thing keeping prices at relatively similar levels pre-COVID, but once homeowners decide they can move out of SF to a less expensive area while still keeping their job and commuting only 1-2 days/week, he thinks prices will move down throughout the last half of 2020 and all of 2021.

He is also seeing rents beginning to come down for the same reason, as many are moving further away from their offices while still keeping their jobs. One of the communities benefiting from this trend, by the way, is Napa--a beautiful community a ferry boat ride away from SF, and less than 40% of the values in SF.

Definitely a phenomenon to keep an eye on.

 

[Miss Marty]

Predictions of Change

Many people don`t have no idea how close they are to losing their history
~ Save all history books and old encyclopedia with pictures and facts ~

 

[Conan]

Predictions of Change

Many people don`t have no idea how close they are to losing their history
~ Save all history books and old encyclopedia with pictures and facts ~

I’ll bite—please give an example of a fact in an old history book/encyclopedia that’s likely to be lost. Not a textbook—the middle school and high school books I learned from back then were packed with misinformation and bias.

https://www.richmond.com/discover-richmond/happy-slaves-the-peculiar-story-of-three-virginia-school-textbooks/article_47e79d49-eac8-575d-ac9d-1c6fce52328f.amp.html

 

[pedro47]

Something is wrong,
1. People are unemployed as an all time high.
2. Business are closed and are going out of business.
3. Gas and food prices are going up.
4. Consumer are now required to pay a surcharge on some items because of the Covid-19 virus.
5. Covid-19 is on the rise in twelve (12) states.
6. Your pay check or retirement check are remaining the same. No pay increases. Some are taking pay reduction 10 to 30%.
7. There are no current sporting events on television or cable.
8. Automobile and home sales are down.
9. Shopping malls are now looking liked ghost towns.

 

[Country Roads]

I've always found that bias, much like beauty, is often in the eye of the beholder.

 

[Brett]

Predictions of Change

Many people don`t have no idea how close they are to losing their history
~ Save all history books and old encyclopedia with pictures and facts ~

History may be changing --- or as you say "altered", not "lost".
You've posted in the eastern timeshare section about how much you dislike the removal of confederate monuments but plenty of confederate statues still remain on private church property. And travel on down to Norfolk and Hampton Roads - confederate flags in the restaurants !
You can proudly celebrate General Robert E. Lee
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Removal_of_Confederate_monuments_and_memorials

 

[SmithOp]

It will be a shame to lose the English Grammar books with lessons on double negatives.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

 

[TravelTime]

Something is wrong,
1. People are unemployed as an all time high.
2. Business are closed and are going out of business.
3. Gas and food prices are going up.
4. Consumer are now required to pay a surcharge on some items because of the Covid-19 virus.
5. Covid-19 is on the rise in twelve (12) states.
6. Your pay check or retirement check is remaining the same.
7. There are no current sporting events on television or cable.
8. Automobile and home sales are down.
9. The shopping malls looks liked a ghost town.

On #6, I hope paychecks remain the same. I know many people who are getting pay reductions from 10% to 30% and they are happy to still have a job.

 

[Cornell]

On #6, I hope paychecks remain the same. I know many people who are getting pay reductions from 10% to 30% and they are happy to still have a job.

Yeah, I stopped at #6. My pay has been cut.

 

[Sugarcubesea]

Yeah, I stopped at #6. My pay has been cut.

Yep, mine has been cut as well.

 

[PigsDad]

Yeah, I stopped at #6. My pay has been cut.

15% cut July - October (4 months) for me. Salary cuts ranged from 10-25%, based on job level at my company.

Kurt

 

[TravelTime]

One thing I find fascinating about the social impact of COVID-19 is how it has accelerated changes that were already in the works. I will first say that much of what I am sharing here is my own opinion--and I'm sure there will be many who disagree with some or perhaps all of what I am forecasting below:

• The shopping mall was a dinosaur. Now it's a dead one.
• The big anchor department stores that were on their last legs won't survive, with perhaps one or two exceptions (Nordstrom, for example, may make it because of their reputation for over-the-top service). We may have seen the last Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. Don't get me wrong: the parade will still be there, but it may be the Amazon Thanksgiving Day Parade by next November.
• The oil market is a complete mess--and not just because the wheels of industry are frozen or that people are not driving these days. One industry expert said, "The global oil industry is experiencing a shock like no other in its history. The fundamentals are horrifying."
• The collapse of the oil markets could have far-reaching geopolitical impacts, particularly on nations that have an overarching dependence on oil revenue. Think Russia, Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Mexico, even Norway. Not only is the entire world getting hit by the worldwide economic shutdown, but the countries that are oil-dependent will have a much, much longer recovery--if they recover at all.
• As we know, the markets react to the future as much as they do to the present, and the future for combustion engine-driven automobiles doesn't look good. Electric vehicles will accelerate in grabbing market share, which means Ford may not survive and Tesla is beautifully-positioned.
• Distance learning will accelerate and will not only threaten the massive infrastructure of colleges and universities, but will also begin to penetrate the public school system. Parents will learn that home schooling is actually possible and--though the teachers unions will resist--the public school districts will see fewer students returning when students are finally asked to come back to traditional classrooms. Even for parents who are not having a great time with the adjustment of helping their students with school projects at home now, they will be very reluctant to return their kids to school until they're absolutely convinced that it's safe.
• Several restaurant chains that were on the bubble before the virus outbreak will not return. Yahoo Finance reported that these chains may not survive to the end of 2020 or will be significantly pared down: Outback Steakhouse, Red Robin, Ruby Tuesday, TGIFriday's, Joe's Crab Shack, O'Charley's, and Marie Callendar's. And thousands of independent restaurants will fail simply because their guest counts--which are zero now--will very, very gradually return once shelter-in-place orders are lifted. And unlike the fast food and casual dining concepts that can adequately handle take-out orders, take out just doesn't work for the white tablecloth concepts, where dining in an elegant setting with the ambience of live music, for example, cannot be duplicated with even a very nice doggy bag.
• Long commutes to work may be over, giving rise to the growth of the suburbs and reversing the Millenial trend of living in the center of major cities. People are getting pretty good at working from home, companies are realizing that productive work can happen under such circumstances, and--according to an article in yesterday's Wall Street Journal--the traditional office as we know it is a thing of the past. Here's a snippet: "Here’s a scenario: The coronavirus goes on hiatus in late spring, and cases begin to drop. Social distancing eases. But many onetime office workers realize they have little interest in going back to the way things were. The age of the office as we know it is probably over, and the bell can’t be unrung. And there’s really no need to try. The traditional office was already fading into obsolescence. The coronavirus pandemic radically sped up the timeline. Give people the leeway and trust to schedule their work lives around their personal lives (not the other way around), and they will discover that they tend to be more productive, more driven and happier. Organizations will learn that they benefit tremendously from losing the limitations that come with traditional office settings."
• Related to the item above, I sure wouldn't want to be owning large--or even small--office buildings right now. And the manufacturers of office furniture, office supplies, or those restaurants that cater to captive customers in major office complexes are not going to do well, even when the virus threat has subsided.
• Youth sports are in for a big adjustment, especially traveling teams. Why risk your child's health just because he/she is talented athletically? Driving a child across town? Yes, possible. Putting that child on a crowded bus to travel hundreds of miles for a weekend tournament? Uh, no.
• Business travel will never be the same. Will it continue once the siege of the virus is lifted? Yes. But the frequency will not. Companies are learning that virtual meetings, while not a replacement for the face-to-face meetings, are about 80% as good for about 0.5% of the cost, both in terms of money and time. This means the big hotel chains are quaking in their boots right now. Their resorts and leisure properties will eventually recover--and will have a huge burst of business when all the millions who've been cooped up for months will be chomping at the bit to take vacations. But those business properties...ouch. There will be many closures of business hotels, especially in large cities.
• There will be fewer cruise lines once this is over, but those that survive will eventually thrive. Right now, cruise ships are the poster children for where not to be in the event of a pandemic. But it's amazing how short people's memories are and, though their memories will be longer after COVID-19 passes, the lure of relatively inexpensive travel, unlimited food, and myriad activities onboard will be too tempting to keep cruisers away forever.

Okay, there are some predictions. Challenge me and tell me why I'm wrong (which, in at least some cases, I undoubtedly will be).

One and a half years later and the USA seems to be getting back to normal much more quickly.
1) Travel is booming. Hotels and airlines are booked. People are booking cruises again.
2) Traffic is crazy again. June 15, the day California lifted its Covid restriction, it was like the flood gates opened.
3) People are moving back to the cities for jobs and shocked that rents are higher (of course they are going to be higher).
4) Companies are asking employees to come back to the office for work collaboration. I am wondering what is going to happen to the real estate market in the next 2 years when people realize they moved too far away from their jobs and their boss wants them back in the office.
5) Zoom fatigue is huge and can’t substitute for real life connection. Hence, I think we will see business travel making a comeback.
6) Kids lost a lot of learning and saw mental health declines so they are going back to school in person. I am glad I enrolled my kids in private school so they did not have these problems.
7) Businesses that did not go out of business are raising prices (inflation is way up).
8) Youth sports did not go away or have any real changes. My girls did sports all year and so did many kids I know.
9) Large companies are continuing to invest in real estate.
10) All the companies that laid off employees during Covid and having trouble re-hiring them since they moved on and the stimulus funded them. But this will all change soon and the mis-match between supply and demand will equalize at some point.

I already miss the stay at home orders when there was no traffic and you could work from home 100%. I do not miss wearing a mask during the hot weather.

 

[rickandcindy23]

Sounds like masks will be back for southern CA. I hope not. We go to Disneyland late September.

 

[klpca]

One and a half years later and the USA seems to be getting back to normal much more quickly.
1) Travel is booming. Hotels and airlines are booked. People are booking cruises again.
2) Traffic is crazy again. June 15, the day California lifted its Covid restriction, it was like the flood gates opened.
3) People are moving back to the cities for jobs and shocked that rents are higher (of course they are going to be higher).
4) Companies are asking employees to come back to the office for work collaboration. I am wondering what is going to happen to the real estate market in the next 2 years when people realize they moved too far away from their jobs and their boss wants them back in the office.
5) Zoom fatigue is huge and can’t substitute for real life connection. Hence, I think we will see business travel making a comeback.
6) Kids lost a lot of learning and saw mental health declines so they are going back to school in person. I am glad I enrolled my kids in private school so they did not have these problems.
7) Businesses that did not go out of business are raising prices (inflation is way up).
8) Youth sports did not go away or have any real changes. My girls did sports all year and so did many kids I know.
9) Large companies are continuing to invest in real estate.
10) All the companies that laid off employees during Covid and having trouble re-hiring them since they moved on and the stimulus funded them. But this will all change soon and the mis-match between supply and demand will equalize at some point.

I already miss the stay at home orders when there was no traffic and you could work from home 100%. I do not miss wearing a mask during the hot weather.

Not only is the traffic nuts, the drivers are too. Speeding and aggressive driving like I've never seen before!

I'm back in the small office where I work (my choice but my boss made it clear that *he* would prefer me to work there) and he is driving me crazy with the million interruptions, speaking to clients on the phone for very long, very loud conversations so I have to get up and close the door constantly, doing webinars with his office door open etc. I usually listen to a podcast to tune the noise out but would prefer to work in a quiet environment like my home office. When I wear my earbuds my boss hates that I don't hear him lol. My productivity is way down.

Only one of us is happy and it's not me.

 

[JeffC]

It’s not just drivers. Rude obnoxious behavior is rampant. At restaurants, stores and public places I see it at a level I don’t remember pre-covid. Almost every retail and restaurant establishment has a sign out for help wanted . You’d think people would see the lack of staffing and be more understanding. I think too many have been cooped up by themselves much too long.

 

[TravelTime]

It’s not just drivers. Rude obnoxious behavior is rampant. At restaurants, stores and public places I see it at a level I don’t remember pre-covid. Almost every retail and restaurant establishment has a sign out for help wanted . You’d think people would see the lack of staffing and be more understanding. I think too many have been cooped up by themselves much too long.

I think the labor problem has to do with businesses laying off during Covid. It is hard to re-staff all at once. The stimulus and enhanced unemployment benefits did not help getting people to work either.