[ 2020 ] Predictions of Change

[WalnutBaron]

The greedy corporations will find a vaccine and/or medicines for coronaviruses and it will become just another annual virus like the annual flu. We'll get accustomed to 100,000s of deaths a year like we do today, and our lives will change little. Oh, we may play this social distancing game for a few more months but then we'll climb back into our daily ho-hum routines and the past few months will be a distance memory. The flyover states are going to lead the reopening of the U.S. and I see July 4th as the date that we're mostly open. Play ball!

Today I got my reorder notification for SEC Football Championship tickets. No way we're going to sit out the SEC football season.

There is ample evidence that the college football season will not take place at all in 2020. Discussion now centers on holding the season beginning in February 2021 and concluding sometime in May.

 

[dioxide45]

I think for electric cars it will still come down to easy access to charging stations. We are in Florida and live in a condo. We have no way to charge an electric vehicle. There is a Tesla Supercharger close by, but I would have to go to it, plug in and wait. It simply isn't feasible. There isn't free charging where I work, which right now is at home. The convenience of being able to charge will be what would drive new electric car sales, though the cost delta will be another. There is no way I can even consider going out and looking to buy an electric car. For those with solar panels on their roof, or access to free or convenient chargers, it simply isn't going to happen. With petroleum prices so low right now, I don't expect much more investment to go in to electric, at least in the near term.

 

[Luvtoride]

Kurt,
Good points on age, but god help those activities which rely on older attendees I.e broadway shows, symphonies, Billy Joel concerts, and most other “art/ culture” performances! If these have to rely on younger audiences, they will be hard pressed to make the economics work (sorry to say for your brother in law @WalnutBaron).
Same for sports and some of the travel options you mentioned unfortunately.
Us older baby boomers have supported many of these activities/ industries (not exclusively) as we are in more of a position to use disposable income for these “discretionary” things.
Given the state of the world post pandemic I won’t want to be shoved into these close quarters with thousands of others.
Brian


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[Luvtoride]

The greedy corporations will find a vaccine and/or medicines for coronaviruses and it will become just another annual virus like the annual flu. We'll get accustomed to 100,000s of deaths a year like we do today, and our lives will change little. Oh, we may play this social distancing game for a few more months but then we'll climb back into our daily ho-hum routines and the past few months will be a distance memory. The flyover states are going to lead the reopening of the U.S. and I see July 4th as the date that we're mostly open. Play ball!

Today I got my reorder notification for SEC Football Championship tickets. No way we're going to sit out the SEC football season.

Old Hickory, not sure where you live but I think our attitudes of going “back to normal” in a few months may depend on where you are located.
Living in North Jersey and working in NYC I don’t see a return to old normal anytime soon.
I know that when we have to go back to our offices in NYC I will Not get on a subway again...better get a good umbrella!

I hope you and others can go back to enjoying College football and other sports.


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[geekette]

Old Hickory, not sure where you live but I think our attitudes of going “back to normal” in a few months may depend on where you are located.

Agree. I guess I am in unimportant "fly over state" so we are still climbing the hill to peak. We have cities that have cancelled 4th of July celebrations. Maybe a gov will want to open, but many of the citizens will not comply. In a choice between my money or my life, I choose my life.
I don't see college sports happening. We can't even see a timeline to normal because we haven't made it to full-on whacky yet.

 

[Old Hickory]

Brian,

I agree. And, I am an optimist. Middle America will want to get back to normal long before the major population centers.

 

[Brett]

Brian,

I agree. And, I am an optimist. Middle America will want to get back to normal long before the major population centers.

no problem being an optimist - I'm also hoping there will be college sports this fall

 

[easyrider]

The USA doesn't have enough lithium to actually make a car battery for mass produced cars. The world reserve of lithium is finite meaning it would eventually run out. Even though the lithium battery makes a clean running car the process to obtain the lithium is anything but green. I think that hydrogen will come out on top of the clean fuel game eventually.

Bill

 

[Bailey#1]

Being from a rural area, I see a more repaid decline of small family farms.

 

[chapjim]

Until an electric vehicle can go 500 miles on a charge and recharge back to full in 5 minutes the gas vehicle will still dominate.

You mean, coal-powered electric vehicle?

 

[Brett]

The USA doesn't have enough lithium to actually make a car battery for mass produced cars. The world reserve of lithium is finite meaning it would eventually run out. Even though the lithium battery makes a clean running car the process to obtain the lithium is anything but green. I think that hydrogen will come out on top of the clean fuel game eventually.

Bill

Lithium is an element. All elements are "finite" !
plenty of lithium ... but yes, it can "run out" after a few hundred years

https://www.greentechmedia.com/arti...ntain-the-Growth-of-the-Lithium-Ion-Battery-M

 

[CalGalTraveler]

Prospects are not good for college football this fall. Below is an piece discussing how in-person classes may not resume until Jan 2021 and many freshman are considering a gap year. Not to mention, many unemployed parents may not have the funds to pay for tuition. On the flip side, parents of existing students can save on room and board.

For some colleges, missing the fall semester may be just the tip of the iceberg

When the world of higher education emerges from the Covid-19 crisis, it won't look the same as it did when the academic year began last September, says David M. Perry.

www.cnn.com

 

[R.J.C.]

If you're driving 500 miles one way for a vacation, I agree. But if you're using your car to commute to/from work, there is no hassle with plugging in overnight when you get home. It's nothing more complicated than charging your cell phone overnight.

I fully understand how to charge a car and did not state anything about the difficulty (or lack thereof) in charging a car. But charging takes overnight and yes I, like many people, take long distance vacations. I can't afford to drive 200 miles and then stop for a night in a hotel to recharge.

 

[R.J.C.]

You mean, coal-powered electric vehicle?

Not sure what you mean with this statement. Electricity is created in many ways, coal, nuclear, wind, solar, water, etc.... What is your point?

 

[rboesl]

What an amazing thread and breadth of responses. There are a few things I'd like to add/respond to:

1. Having a different type of vehicle to run local errands. To some degree it already exists. There are now plug-in hybrids (which I recently leased). These give you enough pure battery power for a short distance then switch over to pure hybrid when the short distance battery runs out. Recharging happens overnight without specialized 220v outlets. I've found this to be awesome. It's reduced my gas consumption by 60% and an overnight charge costs less than a $1.
2. Telecommuting and business meetings online has an extension that larger multi-national corporations will leverage. This can lead to design and development projects that span the globe. Projects that continue from timezone to timezone allowing for 24 hr progress rather than shutting down when the 8-10 hr day ends. The company I used to work for was already trying to implement something like this. More will realize that with the right coordination it can work. The end result would be quicker to market products and greater creativity in their development.
3. Certain portions of our government will change. In particular, product acquisition for those products that are common across localities. Our current crisis pointed this out and needs to change. It should result in a federal acquisition department that other local governments will purchase from. This may also extend to common services purchased as well.
4. Manufacturing. Many different types needs to return to the US with government incentives to make it happen. There was too much product during this crisis that wasn't manufactured here that we were dependent upon. The end result could be jobs for all those people who will need them as the economy changes as a result of this crisis.

 

[b2bailey]

Welcome. It’s an interesting topic, I’m glad you started the thread.

One downside of being as interconnected as the new company is, there is no down time. Instead of working eight hours a day, I am doing twelve most days. This is because at 8AM local, the folks in Europe are winding down their day and need to discuss things. Then there is the normal “work day” here in the US, Canada, Central and South America. In the evening here, it is morning in Asia and we are communicating with the folks over there. Thank goodness we don’t really have things happening over in India or the Middle East, so there is a slow down in middle of the night and I can sleep. However, my phone makes a “clunk” sound when someone messages me in middle of the night with something they need a response to... irritating my wife and waking up the baby. We recently hired three new folks to deal with the overnight stuff so my team and I can get some sleep. At the same time, when it is the middle of the day here in the US, and night time elsewhere, I am messaging those folks when I need a response quickly, thus disturbing them in the same way. We have all become much more conscious about prioritizing demands on others and trying not to disturb folks when it is their down time; in a business that moves at such a rapid pace, delaying hours for someone to wake up can cause systemic problems as the delay has a cascade effect delaying other operations down the line.

There is a setting for your phone not to make that noise unless it's a preselected number.

 

[b2bailey]

Kurt,
Good points on age, but god help those activities which rely on older attendees I.e broadway shows, symphonies, Billy Joel concerts, and most other “art/ culture” performances! If these have to rely on younger audiences, they will be hard pressed to make the economics work (sorry to say for your brother in law @WalnutBaron).
Same for sports and some of the travel options you mentioned unfortunately.
Us older baby boomers have supported many of these activities/ industries (not exclusively) as we are in more of a position to use disposable income for these “discretionary” things.
Given the state of the world post pandemic I won’t want to be shoved into these close quarters with thousands of others.
Brian


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Reminds me of something I read today about lay-offs at Harley Davidson. Can't imagine that is a top of list item for very many.

 

[Sapper]

Compared to a Tesla, yes, but that's more like a Mercedes or Porsche which runs in the same range. But even the low end Tesla is $35,000. If you buy an eGolf or Chevy Bolt, they cost $25 - 40k. In fact we could have purchased a new 2019 eGolf for only $12,000 after government rebates.

@Sapper : Your payback model is based on the assumption that an electric vehicle's initial cost is $100,000. A Tesla Model 3 will set you back between $40-50,000. And a Chevy Volt can be had for well under $40,000.

Yes, this is true. I was basing that on what I remembered when I was looking at the vehicles. Let’s do as close to an apple to apple comparison as we can.
Electric fuel, hydrocarbon fuel / delta:
Nissan Leaf $32k, Ford Focus $19k / $13k
eGolf $32k, gas Golf $23k / $9k
Chevy Bolt $37k, Chevy Spark $13k / $24k
Tesla model X $85k, BMW X5 $59k / $26k
Tesla model 3 $40k, Honda Accord $24k / $16k
Let’s say the current average delta is $17.6k, back to the fuel cost difference of $2400/yr = 7.3 years to BE
That’s a heck of a lot better than 20+ years, but it’s not there yet... at least for me.

 

[Sapper]

There is a setting for your phone not to make that noise unless it's a preselected number.

It’s an internal company texting application. If my phone “clunks” in the middle of the night, there is a problem I have to address promptly. I do appreciate you letting me know though as I hate it when it happens.

 

[TravelTime]

Not so sure about the work from home options and its effect on Predictions of Change.

---------

The Lucky Stay-at-Home 37%
Most Americans do not have the luxury of working from home.

....A newly released study called “How Many Jobs Can Be Done at Home?” reckons that 37% of all U.S. jobs can plausibly be done at home, meaning that nearly two-thirds cannot. The study’s authors, from the University of Chicago’s Becker-Friedman Institute, add that their 37% estimate is at the “upper bound of what might be feasible.”

Along with other studies, this one also finds that those in jobs that can be done from home “typically earn more.” By their calculations, for example, 37% of jobs that can be done at home account for 46% of all wages. There are also variations across cities and industries, with San Francisco and Washington having more jobs that can be done at home than, say, Fort Myers and Grand Rapids, and someone in finance more likely to be able to work from home than a construction worker.....

Opinion | The Lucky Stay-at-Home 37%

Most Americans do not have the luxury of working from home.

www.wsj.com

 

[WalnutBaron]

Not so sure about the work from home options and its effect on Predictions of Change.

Opinion | The Lucky Stay-at-Home 37%

Most Americans do not have the luxury of working from home.

www.wsj.com

Interesting article. Thanks for including it. I guess my interpretation, however, is different from yours. We know it won't come to that, but if even 10%--let alone 37%--of the workforce do not return to their offices when this is all over, that will have a huge impact on various industries. It will negatively affect the auto, oil, and commercial real estate industries and it will positively impact companies like Zoom and Microsoft. I never suggested that all those who are at home now will stay there--far from it. But I do believe there will be a measurable and meaningful change in work patterns, and that those changes will ripple throughout our economy. As I said in another post, I believe we will look back 20 years from now--even 50 years from now--and see a very bright line of demarcation between what life was like in February 2020 and prior compared to what was like in March 2020 and afterward.

 

[dioxide45]

I think that the work from home movement has been ongoing and we would have continued to see it getting more prevalent in the future. So these industries were likely to suffer in the long run. The whole COVID though has accelerated it and many may never go back in to the office. Or go back only to find out they are being asked to work from home full time.

Before this all started, I worked in an office three days a week and one from home. My team works out of many different sites across the country. So in reality, there was never a need to work in the office at all. I had two workers on my team in the same office, but in most cases their work from home days were different than mine and I rarely saw them.

 

[WalnutBaron]

I think that the work from home movement has been ongoing and we would have continued to see it getting more prevalent in the future. So these industries were likely to suffer in the long run. The whole COVID though has accelerated it and many may never go back in to the office. Or go back only to find out they are being asked to work from home full time.

Before this all started, I worked in an office three days a week and one from home. My team works out of many different sites across the country. So in reality, there was never a need to work in the office at all. I had two workers on my team in the same office, but in most cases their work from home days were different than mine and I rarely saw them.

Interesting anecdote and a great example of what I'm projecting. As you will note from my original post, I did not suggest that COVID-19 has started the trend toward working from home, but I do most certainly believe it will accelerate that trend.

 

[PigsDad]

Working from home movements is nothing new, and depending on the company, has gone through many changes.

I work for a very large IT / computing equipment manufacturer. Since around the turn of the century, we have had a few pendulum swings on the work from home front. We've gone from actively encouraging many people to work from home by eliminating permanent office space and going to temporary "mobile" work spaces when you are in the office, to full bore "everyone must be in the office every day", to the point where managers are given spreadsheets of their employees' daily badge swipes of the building's doors. Later we were back to work at home if you want, and of course now everyone is forced to work at home.

Global work teams is the norm in many large corporations. My immediate team includes just one person in the same office building as me, members in Seattle, Houston, Atlanta, New England, Florida, Ireland, The Netherlands, and India. My manager is in Florida. The last time I worked on a team that was even 80% co-located was probably in the late 90's.

I realize remote working is new for many people, but there are many of us who have been doing this for 20+ years and it works just fine. Personally, I prefer to come into the office, but I really don't see any difference in my productivity when working from home.

Kurt

 

[TravelTime]

Working from home movements is nothing new, and depending on the company, has gone through many changes.

I work for a very large IT / computing equipment manufacturer. Since around the turn of the century, we have had a few pendulum swings on the work from home front. We've gone from actively encouraging many people to work from home by eliminating permanent office space and going to temporary "mobile" work spaces when you are in the office, to full bore "everyone must be in the office every day", to the point where managers are given spreadsheets of their employees' daily badge swipes of the building's doors. Later we were back to work at home if you want, and of course now everyone is forced to work at home.

Global work teams is the norm in many large corporations. My immediate team includes just one person in the same office building as me, members in Seattle, Houston, Atlanta, New England, Florida, Ireland, The Netherlands, and India. My manager is in Florida. The last time I worked on a team that was even 80% co-located was probably in the late 90's.

I realize remote working is new for many people, but there are many of us who have been doing this for 20+ years and it works just fine. Personally, I prefer to come into the office, but I really don't see any difference in my productivity when working from home.

Kurt

I agree with this. I remember about 20 years ago when the work from home trend was big and everyone wanted to work from home. I have seen the pendulum swing back and forth over the past 20 years among major employers in Silicon Valley (where I have been living). Lately it seemed like working in the office was more common. Many employees like going into the office some or most days, even when they are allowed to work from home. My DH's company Apple was very against working from home but they had given him permission to work from home two days a week so we could live in our country home for long weekends. I wonder if Apple will shift its policy. It just built a huge spaceship office complex and has so much office space. I have a friend who works in IT at Wells Fargo and she said everyone was working from home and they were trying to get people to come into the office again. Now they will probably allow them to continue working from home. I have another friend at Abbott who wanted to work from home but they wanted her to be in the office with the project teams. In fact, she has to drive 50 miles at least once a week to visit one of her teams. As I think through my friends who work in corporate America, they all go into the office (except my Wells Fargo friend). Most of my clients work in the office, although some have sometimes worked from home for convenience. However, I can definitely see in some industries and some jobs, where most of the work is done on the road anyway, that work from home makes sense and that Covid might allow some companies to downsize office space.