[2020] A little stock market sense

[PigsDad]

I found this article by Motley Fool interesting. While those articles usually have a plug for their services at the end, they also contain some interesting insights.

Is It Smart to Buy Stocks With the S&P 500 at an All-Time High? History Has a Clear Answer​

Is It Smart to Buy Stocks With the S&P 500 at an All-Time High? History Has a Clear Answer | The Motley Fool

Here's what usually happens after the S&P 500 hits a new all-time high.

www.fool.com

One quote from that article seemed counterintuitive at first:

In fact, investing when the S&P 500 hits a new all-time high has historically led to stronger results than investing on days when it doesn't hit a new all-time high.

Kurt

 

[RENTER]

If anyone with a open mind and wants to ask me questions about my system feel free to PM me. I no longer read or respond to those egotistical nitpickers who just like to argue and want to argue with me. There is nothing wrong with my system and it works, so I have no time or need to argue with them.

Especially those who I call the number crunchers. I call them the snipers because they spend hours studying charts, historical data, use limit orders, stop orders, puts and calls trying to be perfect whereas I the hand grenade thrower spend 5 minutes to get close and not be perfect.

If these number crunchers are anywhere near being like the number crunchers I personally know, they are not beating my system.

Also, if they are like the number crunchers I know, they like to gamble. They go to casinos and play fantasy football. They now have sports gambling to gamble with. I thank them for giving the gambling establishments business because I have a Reit that pays a 5% dividend that is a gambling and entertainment Reit.

 

[Brett]

If anyone with a open mind and wants to ask me questions about my system feel free to PM me. I no longer read or respond to those egotistical nitpickers who just like to argue and want to argue with me. There is nothing wrong with my system and it works, so I have no time or need to argue with them.

Especially those who I call the number crunchers. I call them the snipers because they spend hours studying charts, historical data, use limit orders, stop orders, puts and calls trying to be perfect whereas I the hand grenade thrower spend 5 minutes to get close and not be perfect.

If these number crunchers are anywhere near being like the number crunchers I personally know, they are not beating my system.

Also, if they are like the number crunchers I know, they like to gamble. They go to casinos and play fantasy football. They now have sports gambling to gamble with. I thank them for giving the gambling establishments business because I have a Reit that pays a 5% dividend that is a gambling and entertainment Reit.

OK - Try posting your stock market trading system at www.bogleheads.org It's a great place for financial advice and retirement planning.
You might get some advice and recommendations

.

.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/02/business/stock-market-index-funds.html

 

[RENTER]

Since the egotistical nitpickers are not happy unless they are arguing and attacking someone, I will mention something else to set them off. I DO NOT reinvest my dividends right back into that investment. Especially the year end one's that come when the market is high.

I take them in cash and then use them to rebalance my portfolio. I dollar cost average back into those investments that are down under my base line I have for each investment. Thus, I am selling high and buying low.

I wonder what problem they have with this, but I will never know because I will not waste my time reading the responses from egotistical nitpickers telling me what is wrong with my system that works for me.

 

[RENTER]

Yep I am a fool. It has been a good day for my Reits, Utilities, Consumer Staples and my Bear Indexes. Now being the fool I am, I will trim the profits from them, park them in cash and dollar cost average into what is falling.

Being the fool I am, I buy when others cry.

 

[TolmiePeak]

Being the fool I am, I buy when others cry.

I don't think anyone is going to nitpick you for that advice....

 

[Carolinian]

Any thoughts on gold and silver mining stocks? I have been doing some research on those but would apprecaite anyone who has some experience with them. They do not seem yet to have had the increase one would expect from the increase in metal prices.

On gold and silver themselves, September is historically a month where one can expect a dip, and I was watching one develop but hadn't pulled the trigger on anything, when some strong central bank gold buying today erased the dips in both gold and silver. I guess the central banks are watching the dips, too these days..

 

[rapmarks]

My daughter has decided to buy and sell stocks. When I told her she will owe taxes on the profits , she was shocked

 

[RENTER]

Today the Dow down 396. Nasdaq down 440. This fool is up 0.07%.

 

[easyrider]

I found this article by Motley Fool interesting. While those articles usually have a plug for their services at the end, they also contain some interesting insights.

Is It Smart to Buy Stocks With the S&P 500 at an All-Time High? History Has a Clear Answer​

Is It Smart to Buy Stocks With the S&P 500 at an All-Time High? History Has a Clear Answer | The Motley Fool

Here's what usually happens after the S&P 500 hits a new all-time high.

www.fool.com

One quote from that article seemed counterintuitive at first:



Kurt

In fact, investing when the S&P 500 hits a new all-time high has historically led to stronger results than investing on days when it doesn't hit a new all-time high.

It seems wrong and is counter-intuitive. It's sounds like something a salesperson would say. Buffet has cashed out and so has many other big investors. When these whales pull out they sell you their soon to be crap meaning many small investors will buy high. When things do go to crap and stock prices are low the small investors freak out and sell while the whales get ready to buy companies.

It's not a small investors game. It never has been, imo.

Bill

 

[WaikikiFirst]

bewildered why this seems counter-intuitive to people? think of this old adage:
"Staircase up and elevator down"

 

[TolmiePeak]

Any thoughts on gold and silver mining stocks? I have been doing some research on those but would apprecaite anyone who has some experience with them. They do not seem yet to have had the increase one would expect from the increase in metal prices.

On gold and silver themselves, September is historically a month where one can expect a dip, and I was watching one develop but hadn't pulled the trigger on anything, when some strong central bank gold buying today erased the dips in both gold and silver. I guess the central banks are watching the dips, too these days..

You can make far more money by pumping and running a business that is an intermediary for people buying / selling gold and silver than you can by owning gold and silver.

 

[Brett]

You can make far more money by pumping and running a business that is an intermediary for people buying / selling gold and silver than you can by owning gold and silver.

For sure!

 

[WaikikiFirst]

If anyone with a open mind and wants to ask me questions about my system feel free to PM me. I no longer read or respond to those egotistical nitpickers who just like to argue and want to argue with me.

reminds me of a line in Blazing Saddles

 

[WaikikiFirst]

I wonder what problem they have with this, but I will never know because I will not waste my time reading the responses from egotistical nitpickers telling me what is wrong with my system that works for me.

reminds me of another line from Blazing Saddles

 

[WaikikiFirst]

investing when the S&P 500 hits a new all-time high has historically led to stronger results than investing on days when it doesn't hit a new all-time high.

---> It seems wrong and is counter-intuitive.

While cycling and getting plenty of beautiful clean Sept coastal air, I realized what people may be thinking (missing) when they call that "counter-intuitive". Do you who call it "counter-intuitive" think the measurement is "investing & then holding until TODAY"?
Tell us what methodology you think they use when they say "led to stronger results".
Here is how I bet they do it;
a) each day is an "independent" event. For each day, they add a data pt that says you bought at the closing SP500 price.
b) For every data pt, your "results" are the gain / loss you make at some set period later, maybe 6 months, maybe 1 yr, definitely no more than 2 yrs.
They do not do this thinking it is "buy on some day & then hold til today (or forever)". The most obvious problem with that "today or forever" would be that each data pt has a different "holding period".

So, the reason I said this is intuitive when you remember "Staircase up and elevator down", is that it takes time to get to the top of the staircase when going 1 stair at a time, and if the holding period is always 6 mos or 1 yr, time is ticking. So, there are many data pts that keep piling into the data during the long upswing. And, remember, the only data pts that matter for one-half (the "stronger" half) of this comparison are the ones that happened at ATHs, and in each cycle only a few of those end up taking the elevator down soon enough to matter on a 1 yr holding period.

 

[Brett]

While cycling and getting plenty of beautiful clean Sept coastal air, I realized what people may be thinking (missing) when they call that "counter-intuitive". Do you who call it "counter-intuitive" think the measurement is "investing & then holding until TODAY"?
Tell us what methodology you think they use when they say "led to stronger results".
Here is how I bet they do it;
a) each day is an "independent" event. For each day, they add a data pt that says you bought at the closing SP500 price.
b) For every data pt, your "results" are the gain / loss you make at some set period later, maybe 6 months, maybe 1 yr, definitely no more than 2 yrs.
They do not do this thinking it is "buy on some day & then hold til today (or forever)". The most obvious problem with that "today or forever" would be that each data pt has a different "holding period".

So, the reason I said this is intuitive when you remember "Staircase up and elevator down", is that it takes time to get to the top of the staircase when going 1 stair at a time, and if the holding period is always 6 mos or 1 yr, time is ticking. So, there are many data pts that keep piling into the data during the long upswing. And, remember, the only data pts that matter for one-half (the "stronger" half) of this comparison are the ones that happened at ATHs, and in each cycle only a few of those end up taking the elevator down soon enough to matter on a 1 yr holding period.

basically, yes - each second is an "independent event" and "asset prices reflect all available information and that's why it is theoretically impossible to systematically "beat the market."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_timing

 

[letsgobobby]

the best time to invest in the stock market was forty years ago. the next best time is today.

The stock market remains within 1.5% of its all time high, even higher taking into account dividends.

Ill just keep buying from my FIRE perch.

 

[letsgobobby]

it is not impossible to beat the market

it is impossible for most or even many investors to beat the market net of fees.

thus buying the entire market , minimizing taxes and fees and never selling is a winning strategy.

basically, yes - each second is an "independent event" and "asset prices reflect all available information and that's why it is theoretically impossible to systematically "beat the market."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_timing

 

[TolmiePeak]

it is not impossible to beat the market

it is impossible for most or even many investors to beat the market net of fees.

thus buying the entire market , minimizing taxes and fees and never selling is a winning strategy.

The best way to beat the market is to convince others that you can and then collect those fees.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

There are two ways to "make money" by investing.

#1. Buy an asset and then later selling the asset for a profit. (In essence trading)
#2. Buy an asset that returns a profit from the investment to the investor along the way. i. e. dividends, rents, royalties, ect. while continuing to hold the asset.

Either way, you are well served to buy assets that are currently out of favor, and therefore relatively cheap. I. e. bargain hunting. Despite popular wisdom, the marketplace is not a perfect measuring device, as all investing is based upon a projection of the future. Nobody has a crystal ball that works perfectly, all the time.

 

[Brett]

There are two ways to "make money" by investing.

#1. Buy an asset and then later selling the asset for a profit. (In essence trading)
#2. Buy an asset that returns a profit from the investment to the investor along the way. i. e. dividends, rents, royalties, ect. while continuing to hold the asset.

Either way, you are well served to buy assets that are currently out of favor, and therefore relatively cheap. I. e. bargain hunting. Despite popular wisdom, the marketplace is not a perfect measuring device, as all investing is based upon a projection of the future. Nobody has a crystal ball that works perfectly, all the time.

Or like the previous poster indicated, collect fees on the gullible and then invest that in index funds.
Gosh darn, you can beat the market!
.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Or like the previous poster indicated, collect fees on the gullible and then invest that in index funds.
Gosh darn, you can beat the market!
.
View attachment 99056

You aren't beating the market, you're just being a flim-flam person. Totally different.

 

[TolmiePeak]

You aren't beating the market, you're just being a flim-flam person. Totally different.

You realize that we are commenting in a timeshare industry board which is the definition of flim flam.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

You realize that we are commenting in a timeshare industry board which is the definition of flim flam.

Actually, I am posting on a flim-flam survivor board. It's about how to get the most out of the least. . . after you've been flim-flammed.