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[2020] A little stock market sense

HitchHiker71

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If you are on the receiving end of the new/expanded programs in the Inflation Reduction Act, then it probably "reduces" inflation for you (but is paid for by other taxpayers). :mad:

Kurt

Agreed. Many people seem to be under the impression that interest rate increases are the primary cause of equity market deleveraging and asset bubble deflationary events. While rising interest rates don’t help - it is the suspension of QE that occurred earlier this year - coupled with the Fed deleveraging their balance sheets that are causing the market deleveraging events. QE causes asset bubbles to form - there is no stopping the deleveraging events from occurring now that QE has stopped and the Fed balance sheet is starting to shrink (finally).


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Continuing to hold interest rates artificially low is what got us into all of this in the first place. Are you actually recommending we continue down the same destructive path? That makes zero sense IMHO. Experiencing the short term pain of a recession is much better than the corrosive long term effects of stagflation. By far.

That said - I absolutely agree that the Inflation Reduction Act is a joke as it relates to taming inflation. Deficit overspending by further inflating the money supply is what has at least in part caused this inflation problem in the first place. Passing yet another huge spending bill doesn’t help - this is economics 101 conceptually yet we keep doing it repeatedly.


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I agree that interest rates were kept artificially low for a long time and the stock market was overvalued partially due to that. However, I think the Fed is increasing the rates too much and too fast and will put many people in a difficult situation. It will be difficult for anyone to pay off credit card debt at these higher rates and the housing market will be hit pretty hard. A key driver of inflation today is energy costs and these can only be reduced if barriers are removed to increasing domestic production. Product shortages are another problem that won't be helped much by higher rates.
 

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I agree that interest rates were kept artificially low for a long time and the stock market was overvalued partially due to that. However, I think the Fed is increasing the rates too much and too fast and will put many people in a difficult situation. It will be difficult for anyone to pay off credit card debt at these higher rates and the housing market will be hit pretty hard. A key driver of inflation today is energy costs and these can only be reduced if barriers are removed to increasing domestic production. Product shortages are another problem that won't be helped much by higher rates.
Yes, but if the fed had started increasing rates a lot earlier, they possibly would not have had to do it at this fast pace. They could have done small increases slowly rather than high increases fast. Just an opinion. I don't claim to be an expert in economics.
 

HitchHiker71

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I agree that interest rates were kept artificially low for a long time and the stock market was overvalued partially due to that. However, I think the Fed is increasing the rates too much and too fast and will put many people in a difficult situation. It will be difficult for anyone to pay off credit card debt at these higher rates and the housing market will be hit pretty hard. A key driver of inflation today is energy costs and these can only be reduced if barriers are removed to increasing domestic production. Product shortages are another problem that won't be helped much by higher rates.

While I understand your concerns - the Fed has but two mandates. One, price stability (low inflation), and two, maximum employment - in that order. Every other data point is outside of their mandate and doesn’t factor in.

The Fed is being mild compared to the last time we saw stagflation under Volcker. If we were to go by history - the Fed would be raising rates inline with headline inflation - or around 8-9%. As it stands - the Fed is indicating they will raise rates to roughly half of that measure or 4.25-4.5% - perhaps as high as 5% and then pause. They are also taking this approach because their leading indicators for headline price inflation show annualized rates falling to 4.5-5% in March/April of next year - which is why they are gliding toward roughly that fed funds rate at around the same point in time.


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TravelTime

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Nobel Economics PrizeEx-Fed Chair Bernanke Among Winners for Work on Financial Crises


Ben S. Bernanke, the former chair of the Federal Reserve, on Monday won a Nobel Memorial Prize in economics for his research into banks and financial crises — work he was able to draw on in real time while fighting the worst downturn America had faced since the Great Depression.

Mr. Bernanke became Fed chair in 2006, shortly before U.S. house prices ended their breakneck ascent and began an unexpected and devastating decline. As the housing market cooled, overextended borrowers fell behind and defaulted on their mortgages, and a pile of risky mortgage debt that had been sliced, diced and parceled out across big banks and the broader financial system began to drag down institutions and break the gears of finance.

Mr. Bernanke, who received a Ph.D. in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and who taught at Princeton University before coming to the Fed as a governor in 2002, drew upon his research about the Great Depression to try to stem the fallout. He worked with colleagues to set up emergency programs that backstopped various markets on the brink of collapse, from short-term business debt to securitized loans. And alongside the Treasury Department, he used the Fed’s powers to enable bailouts for bank and insurance company portfolios.

Mr. Bernanke’s track record on the crisis included controversy. The Fed and Treasury Department allowed Lehman Brothers to fail, which Mr. Bernanke has said he and his colleagues believed was their only option. Some critics have since argued that the investment bank could and should have been saved. The ripple effects of that failure worsened the downturn, which lasted from 2007 to 2009 in the United States and sent activity tumbling around the world.

But the Fed acted aggressively to try to resuscitate the economy. Under Mr. Bernanke’s watch, it began to implement bond-buying policies in which it purchased huge amounts of government-backed debt to lower long-term interest rates. It also pushed toward greater transparency, beginning to hold quarterly news conferences (which now accompany every rate-setting meeting) and formally adopting an inflation target of 2 percent.

Mr. Bernanke left the Fed in 2014 and he is now a distinguished senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington. He won the Nobel for his work on financial crises, including a 1983 paperthat broke ground in explaining that bank failures propagate downturns and aren’t simply a side effect of them.
 

easyrider

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I think this next year may be the year of massive global debt forgiveness via corporate bankruptcy. Very likely a war in 2023 as well. This is because 2023 is a Jubalee Year and of how intertwined the global economy is. It will be different than those of the past because of technology so it could be better or worse but likely faster. If 1973 is an indicator then it might be an entire monetary shift similar to the collapse of the Brenton Wood system on the way. OR it could be business as usual with the fiat system which only works when other countries agree that it works.

The other possibility is things go well but things are lining up to not so well, imo.

Bill
 

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I think this next year may be the year of massive global debt forgiveness via corporate bankruptcy. Very likely a war in 2023 as well. This is because 2023 is a Jubalee Year and of how intertwined the global economy is. It will be different than those of the past because of technology so it could be better or worse but likely faster. If 1973 is an indicator then it might be an entire monetary shift similar to the collapse of the Brenton Wood system on the way. OR it could be business as usual with the fiat system which only works when other countries agree that it works.

The other possibility is things go well but things are lining up to not so well, imo.

Bill

wars, collapses. bankruptcies, "Jubalee Year" OR "things go well" next year :ponder:

.

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easyrider

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I'm wondering how the rest of the week goes and haven't really thought too much about next year. It could be another bad cpi report tomorrow causing another dip is what I'm watching. That and paypal, lol. It was interesting to see paypal's stock tank yesterday after their terms of service included fines for misinformation. It could have been Elon Musk's tweet that caused the sell off even after paypal claimed that the tos wouldn't include the misinformation clause. Maybe Friday's deal.

Bill
 

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Swiss National Bank loses nearly $143 billion in first nine months
 

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Shipping giant Maersk warns 'dark clouds' on the horizon mean consumer buying will falter, threatening global economy
  • Shipping giant Maersk warned 'dark clouds' threaten the global economy as container demand slows.
  • The Ukraine war and high inflation are weighing on consumer purchasing power, its CEO said Wednesday.
  • Maersk, a bellwether for global trade, expects a more volatile business environment ahead.
 

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The author of the classic ‘A Random Walk Down Wall Street’ still believes the markets are hard for any individual to beat.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/burton-malkiel-random-walk-wall-street-indexing-11667510020

"Dr. Malkiel, 90 years old, still says index investing beats other approaches, and he has half a century of additional data to bolster his case

The essential part of efficient markets: that there are no arbitrage opportunities, no easy way to make money, without taking on a good deal of risk. The result is that markets become very, very hard for any investor to beat. Only a handful of outliers, like Warren Buffett, have done it consistently, and even they flag sooner or later.
It’s almost impossible to predict who will succeed going forward. Buffett himself recommends indexing.


WSJ: And you still believe indexing is the best way for people to invest in stocks?

DR. MALKIEL: Oh, without doubt, because it works. Each year about two-thirds of active managers underperform the index, and those who outperform in one year are not the same as those who outperform in the next. S&P does something called Spiva, in which they compare the S&P indexes with active managers. And what it shows is that over a 10-year period, roughly 90% of domestic stock funds, for example, are outperformed by the index.

Malkiel advocates indexing, dollar-cost averaging and diversification, but makes mincemeat of such practices as technical analysis, ESG and ‘smart beta.’ So it might surprise some investors
that he does buy individual stocks. ‘I’ve always liked gambling; it’s fun. So yes, I buy individual stocks.’ but my retirement accounts are 100% indexed. "
 

MULTIZ321

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CO skier

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This Dividend Aristocrat With A 7% Yield ls A Real Buy Low Opportunity
"Dividend Aristocrats"

"Nifty Fifty"

"Past performance is no guarantee of future success"

"A high dividend yield for a short period of time is meaningless if it cannot be maintained. Prior to this disclosure, V.F. was losing money and paying out 183% of its earnings, with no free cash flow being produced. It would be impossible to keep paying out dividends that are so high compared to earnings and still have no free cash flow."

That is a lesson I learned investing in some "Dividend Aristocrat" bank stocks in 2008, just before they slashed their dividends. I sold when each reached a 10% loss. Good thing, because the stock prices bottomed at much lower prices in 2009.

This article strikes me as a classic "pump and dump" piece. I would not touch this stock with a ten foot pole (or a $10 bill).

VF Corp. stock price closed at $26.90 today. Anyone want to predict where it will be a year from now? Let us revisit it then as a significant data point for the "Dividend Aristocrats."
 

easyrider

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"Dividend Aristocrats"

"Nifty Fifty"

"Past performance is no guarantee of future success"

"A high dividend yield for a short period of time is meaningless if it cannot be maintained. Prior to this disclosure, V.F. was losing money and paying out 183% of its earnings, with no free cash flow being produced. It would be impossible to keep paying out dividends that are so high compared to earnings and still have no free cash flow."

That is a lesson I learned investing in some "Dividend Aristocrat" bank stocks in 2008, just before they slashed their dividends. I sold when each reached a 10% loss. Good thing, because the stock prices bottomed at much lower prices in 2009.

This article strikes me as a classic "pump and dump" piece. I would not touch this stock with a ten foot pole (or a $10 bill).

VF Corp. stock price closed at $26.90 today. Anyone want to predict where it will be a year from now? Let us revisit it then as a significant data point for the "Dividend Aristocrats."

I had Washington Mutual on the advice of a financial advisor and we didn't get out in time. When I complained he told me he personally lost over $700,000 on Wa Mu and I was lucky to have got out when I did. After that I pulled out of stocks for the most part and bought real estate. I think there will be another buying opportunity regarding property like in 2008 within a couple of years if not sooner.

Bill
 

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Dow Jones Soars 1,200 Points On Inflation Report
https://www.investors.com/market-tr...report-why-market-rally-may-have-room-to-run/

Stock prices surged and bond yields dropped sharply Thursday as traders welcomed signs of ebbing price pressures. Investors are hoping that easing inflation means the Fed might not have to
raise interest rates as high as previously feared.

U.S. government bond yields marked their steepest one-day declines in more than a decade Thursday after fresh data showed inflation fell more in October than Wall Street expected.
 

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I hope energy prices don't start driving up inflation again. Diesel is in short supply, the oil reserve utilization will stop after November, and no barriers have been removed for increased US oil production. I expect gas prices to start increasing in the near future and shipping costs will continue to rise. Russia is also becoming more influential in OPEC policies, so don't expect any help there.
 

MULTIZ321

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[Deleted - included in the article is an investment solicitation.]
 
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Brett

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Chances of Recession Start to Dim as Experts See a Possible Growth Rebound
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/09/business/economy/fed-economy-recession-rebound.html

"Many economists and investors had a clear narrative coming into 2023: The Federal Reserve had spent months pushing borrowing costs rapidly higher in a bid to tame inflation, and those moves were expected to slow growth and the labor market so much that the economy would be at risk of plunging into a downturn.

But the recession calls are now getting a rethink.
Employers added more than half a million jobs in January, the housing market shows signs of stabilizing or even picking back up, and many Wall Street economists have marked down the odds of a downturn this year. After months of asking whether the Fed could pull off a soft landing in which the economy slows but does not plummet into a bruising recession, analysts are raising the possibility that it will not land at all — that growth will simply hold up."
 
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