Honestly Jeff, I'm at the same place as you. I'm worried that I'm being short sighted with respect to the new program, but I can't make the numbers work no matter how hard I try. We have other timeshares so we'll still have to pay the II fee, so no savings there. We plan to stay in our DSV unit at least every other year so only partial savings there. I keep forgetting about the exchange fee being only on our Marriott trades (I try to keep it Marriott to Marriott though), but the Marriott is our only 2 bedroom in II, so sometimes that's the unit I need to use to get the trade. If we weren't resale and we were talking $600, I'd pull the trigger, But with the higher amount, the break even point is more like 7 - 10 years.
If we use it to trade every other year (our current planned usage) our trading costs for the two years would be: $80 (L/O fee), plus two Marriott trading fees $129 + $129. No II account savings since we have to keep our account open for our other timeshares. So a total cost of $338. Program fees for those two years is $165+$165, total $8 net out of pocket, plus the enrollment fee of $1495. Less whatever the value is of 800 points. Obviously at this point the joining fee is just a sunk cost to stay in the program. If we were to exchange every year, the net numbers would be $338 less $165, or a net savings of $173 each year. In the neighborhood of an 8 year break even, less depending on the value of the 800 points. I'm underwhelmed by the value for our particular situation. (and don't even get me started on the skim, lol).
For anyone who is still reading at this point, did I miss anything in my analysis?