• The TUGBBS forums are completely free and open to the public and exist as the absolute best place for owners to get help and advice about their timeshares for more than 30 years!

    Join Tens of Thousands of other Owners just like you here to get any and all Timeshare questions answered 24 hours a day!
  • TUG started 30 years ago in October 1993 as a group of regular Timeshare owners just like you!

    Read about our 30th anniversary: Happy 30th Birthday TUG!
  • TUG has a YouTube Channel to produce weekly short informative videos on popular Timeshare topics!

    Free memberships for every 50 subscribers!

    Visit TUG on Youtube!
  • TUG has now saved timeshare owners more than $21,000,000 dollars just by finding us in time to rescind a new Timeshare purchase! A truly incredible milestone!

    Read more here: TUG saves owners more than $21 Million dollars
  • Sign up to get the TUG Newsletter for free!

    60,000+ subscribing owners! A weekly recap of the best Timeshare resort reviews and the most popular topics discussed by owners!
  • Our official "end my sales presentation early" T-shirts are available again! Also come with the option for a free membership extension with purchase to offset the cost!

    All T-shirt options here!
  • A few of the most common links here on the forums for newbies and guests!

The recent silver market

Ralph Sir Edward

TUG Member
Joined
Jul 8, 2013
Messages
2,873
Reaction score
3,501
Points
448
Location
Plano, Texas
One can look at inflation as prices going up, or equally validly, as the value of money going down. A cross-check is looking at prices of constant goods over time. As one science fiction writer called it - "The hamburger scale".

But to silver and gold.

I use the US, because I am familiar with it. In 1965, the US dropped silver backing to its currency. At that time (or so), silver was valued at .7272 Troy ounces to the dollar. It is now around $22 USD to the Troy ounce. Or an increase of 16X. Constant scale goods rose in the order of 15X to 20X over that time period. Of equal interest the DJIA went from around 1000 to 33000, or around a 32X increase. It is a very rough estimate, as it doesn't include dividends over time, nor the changes and bankruptcies of some of the Dow components (only fair - if you bought x dollars of either one in 1965, you were holding to today.)

Gold is more interesting. The US went fully off of the gold standard on Aug 15 1971. Free market gold around that time was going for around $40 USD. Gold was somewhat legal at US citizens at the time (this is another whole can of worms!), so legal gold coins could be bought for around $50 a Troy ounce. (A good scholarly work on the period of illegality of gold in the US is the book Confiscation - by Ken Ferguson. Short and a good level-headed read.) Gold is now around $1900 USD; which is 38X gain over the period. The Dow was at around 900 at the time, now it is around 33000; a 37X gain (subject to the same caveats as above) . Roughly the same gain.

These are . . . ahem . . .the cold, hard numbers.

Feel free to look them up yourselves.
 

e.bram

Guest
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
3,185
Reaction score
124
Points
399
Location
Fort Lee, NJ
The problem in investing in gold and silver is the buying and selling commissions. You can trade stocks for free. No commission expense.
 

Carolinian

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
10,644
Reaction score
935
Points
598
Location
eastern Europe
The problem in investing in gold and silver is the buying and selling commissions. You can trade stocks for free. No commission expense.

That is where the paper gold and paper silver contracts come in.

There is a new kicker on paper gold and paper silver however. In the Basel III bank regulations, which come in on a staggered basis, only physical silver and gold will be henceforth considered good assets or collateral for a bank, and paper gold and silver will no longer count. That may destroy or downgrade the paper gold and paper silver markets and cause the value of physical to rise, according to some analysts. A couple of the big banks that deal in bullion have been caught and criminally convicted of manipulating the spot price of gold by what they did in the paper market, and that may have had something to do with the change in the Basel III rules, or it may have agreed with those who speculate that the bullion banks do not have all the gold or silver in their vaults to back up all the paper metal they have issued.

Last year the "Wall Street Bets" internet group that played havoc with a number of stocks, launched an operation aimed at the silver market that they called "Silver Squeeze" which involved attacking one specific paper silver operation of the two big ones. Their theory was that they could overwhelm the amount of silver they had on hand and bust their bank. Their tactic was to urge their followers to buy paper silver contracts from this particular provider and when the time came to settle up, to take delivery of the silver instead of rolling it over or cashing out. For whatever reason, it did not work.

In any event, I have never seen the cupboard so bare as it is now on silver available for purchase from bullion dealers. It got started before the SVB bank run and has caught fire since. Most bullion dealers seem to be out of almost everything on US silver coinage, and both spot price of silver and gold and the premiums over spot have risen. On March 12, I bought some general US silver coins (I was no longer able to find the specific coins I usually buy) at a bit over $181 per ten dollars face. Yesterday evening, that company was the only one of the three I deal with that still even had that (and it was all they had), and they were $221 per ten dollars face. This morning it is $222. I have never seen a run on precious metals like the one going on now. The gold I usually buy is somewhat more available than silver, but it is thinning out, too. Personally, I see the upside higher right now in silver which is all I have been buying since January, and with the bigger run on physical silver, others must share that view. I have seen prices jump this way, but never lack of inventory.

UPDATE: That same bullion company this afternoon is over $227 per $10 face value random US silver coins. On March 6, I notice on an invoice I was paying $176 per $10 face. I am seeing more continued availablility on Canadian silver coins, and while they have gone up to reflect higher spot prices of silver, the premiums do not seem to have jumped like US silver coins. Tempted to pick up some Canadian silver dollars before they do.
 
Last edited:

Ralph Sir Edward

TUG Member
Joined
Jul 8, 2013
Messages
2,873
Reaction score
3,501
Points
448
Location
Plano, Texas
That is where the paper gold and paper silver contracts come in.

There is a new kicker on paper gold and paper silver however. In the Basel III bank regulations, which come in on a staggered basis, only physical silver and gold will be henceforth considered good assets or collateral for a bank, and paper gold and silver will no longer count. That may destroy or downgrade the paper gold and paper silver markets and cause the value of physical to rise, according to some analysts. A couple of the big banks that deal in bullion have been caught and criminally convicted of manipulating the spot price of gold by what they did in the paper market, and that may have had something to do with the change in the Basel III rules, or it may have agreed with those who speculate that the bullion banks do not have all the gold or silver in their vaults to back up all the paper metal they have issued.

Last year the "Wall Street Bets" internet group that played havoc with a number of stocks, launched an operation aimed at the silver market that they called "Silver Squeeze" which involved attacking one specific paper silver operation of the two big ones. Their theory was that they could overwhelm the amount of silver they had on hand and bust their bank. Their tactic was to urge their followers to buy paper silver contracts from this particular provider and when the time came to settle up, to take delivery of the silver instead of rolling it over or cashing out. For whatever reason, it did not work.

In any event, I have never seen the cupboard so bare as it is now on silver available for purchase from bullion dealers. It got started before the SVB bank run and has caught fire since. Most bullion dealers seem to be out of almost everything on US silver coinage, and both spot price of silver and gold and the premiums over spot have risen. On March 12, I bought some general US silver coins (I was no longer able to find the specific coins I usually buy) at a bit over $181 per ten dollars face. Yesterday evening, that company was the only one of the three I deal with that still even had that (and it was all they had), and they were $221 per ten dollars face. This morning it is $222. I have never seen a run on precious metals like the one going on now. The gold I usually buy is somewhat more available than silver, but it is thinning out, too. Personally, I see the upside higher right now in silver which is all I have been buying since January, and with the bigger run on physical silver, others must share that view. I have seen prices jump this way, but never lack of inventory.
There was a similar run for physical metals, which did not run up the price, but caused month's long delay in deliveries, in 1999. That was due to Y2K worries.
 

Quiet Pine

TUG Review Crew: Expert
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 9, 2011
Messages
651
Reaction score
632
Points
304
Location
AZ Valley of the Sun
Resorts Owned
Sheraton Desert Oasis
I have silver coins in my safe deposit box. From my dad and grandpa. May just leave them there.
Coincidence! Just yesterday I took silver coins (Morgan dollars, Kennedy half-dollars) to a dealer. Dollars are dated 1889, 1890, 1921-24. Coin dealer offered $20 each for dollars, $2 each for half-dollars. They belonged to my FIL, so it's up to DH whether/when to sell. I just want them out of the house so our survivors don't have to deal with them. (Same for the 2 boxes of sheet music from the '20s-'30s in the garage!)
 

ScoopKona

Guest
Joined
May 7, 2008
Messages
5,722
Reaction score
3,309
Points
598
Location
Monkey King Coffee - Captain Cook, Hawaii
Safe deposit boxes aren't worth the money these days. In many cases, the coins being stored are worth less than the payments on the box.
 

Carolinian

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
10,644
Reaction score
935
Points
598
Location
eastern Europe

Coincidence! Just yesterday I took silver coins (Morgan dollars, Kennedy half-dollars) to a dealer. Dollars are dated 1889, 1890, 1921-24. Coin dealer offered $20 each for dollars, $2 each for half-dollars. They belonged to my FIL, so it's up to DH whether/when to sell. I just want them out of the house so our survivors don't have to deal with them. (Same for the 2 boxes of sheet music from the '20s-'30s in the garage!)

There are three types of Kennedy half dollars. the 90% silver dated 1964, the 40% silver dated 1965-70, and those later. The later ones are only worth face value. The 1964s are worth around $12 and the 40% varierty around $5. The older pre-1904 Morgan dollars average circulated are bringing about $35 and the later Peace dollars about $31 average circulated. I would say all of the coin dealer's offers are lowball numbers. I would look for some other offers.
 
Last edited:

Carolinian

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
10,644
Reaction score
935
Points
598
Location
eastern Europe
Safe deposit boxes aren't worth the money these days. In many cases, the coins being stored are worth less than the payments on the box.

Try a credit union. They are real cheap at my local credit union.
 

Ralph Sir Edward

TUG Member
Joined
Jul 8, 2013
Messages
2,873
Reaction score
3,501
Points
448
Location
Plano, Texas
Safe deposit boxes? <Shrug> What's the beef?

I pay several thousand dollars for home and auto insurance. Hopefully it will be a dead loss, and I won't need it. But just in case. . .

Safe deposit boxes have multiple uses. I store data backups, car title, land deeds, ect. Off-site storage and fire protection. If one wants to throw some precious metals in as well, so what?
Another $100-200 dollars a year for more insurance? Cost of doing business. . .
 

CO skier

TUG Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2012
Messages
4,106
Reaction score
2,357
Points
448
Location
Colorado
Safe deposit boxes? <Shrug> What's the beef?

I pay several thousand dollars for home and auto insurance. Hopefully it will be a dead loss, and I won't need it. But just in case. . .

Safe deposit boxes have multiple uses. I store data backups, car title, land deeds, ect. Off-site storage and fire protection. If one wants to throw some precious metals in as well, so what?
Another $100-200 dollars a year for more insurance? Cost of doing business. . .
$100,000 of gold coins easily fits in my safe deposit box. More than half of them are collectible coins which have appreciated considerably more over the last 20 years versus the bullion coins. Transaction costs are negligible; storage costs manageable. There were a few months in the fall of 2008 and early 2009 when I kept all the coins in the home safe. The peace of mind was priceless. I do not want to hold all my assets as "magnetic ink."
 

CO skier

TUG Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2012
Messages
4,106
Reaction score
2,357
Points
448
Location
Colorado
A 100 Trillion Dollars Zimbabwe bill was not enough for bus fare in the capital. Paper money is built entirely on trust. It works until it doesn't.

1679116443483.png
 

easyrider

TUG Review Crew: Elite
TUG Member
Joined
Aug 21, 2005
Messages
15,044
Reaction score
8,001
Points
948
Location
Palm Springs of Washinton
Resorts Owned
Worldmark * * Villa Del Palmar UVCI * * Vacation Internationale*
Has anyone thought of where they rank as a private silver stacker ? To be in the top 20% of stackers globally you only need to have 41-50 ounces while the bottom 80% has 3 ounces. To be in the top 5% globally you need a stack of about 150 ounces. To be in the top 1% you need about 500 ounces.

This means the top 1% with a 500 ounce stack has about $11,000 worth of silver. A 1000 ounces of silver is about 62 pounds and is worth about $22,000.

Silver went up to about $49 an ounce as a high in 2011 because of the 2008 crash. If inflation hit 10%+ in 2023 spot price could be over $100 an ounce by 2024 is what many think. I really doubt it will. If it did I would be tempted to cash out, lol.

While I do have alot of silver this pales in value to our other assets. I like silver because it is said to attract wealth, prosperity and abundance. Silver also attracts positive energy and repels negative energy. I know this is considered folklore or laws of attraction but it seems to work for many. This is why many people are stackers and just pass down their stacks.

Bill
 

CO skier

TUG Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2012
Messages
4,106
Reaction score
2,357
Points
448
Location
Colorado
A 1000 ounces of silver is about 62 pounds and is worth about $22,000.
$22,000 worth of gold is about 11.6 ounces (less than one pound) -- much more manageable than 62 pounds of silver metal.
 

CO skier

TUG Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2012
Messages
4,106
Reaction score
2,357
Points
448
Location
Colorado
This 1.18 ounce Double Eagle is worth about 14 pounds (227 ounces) of silver.

1876 Double Eagle.jpg
 

Ralph Sir Edward

TUG Member
Joined
Jul 8, 2013
Messages
2,873
Reaction score
3,501
Points
448
Location
Plano, Texas
To put the economic density of gold in perspective:

Have you ever held a roll of US nickels in your hand?

1/4 Troy ounce gold coins (and their near cousins - Sovereigns and $5 US gold pieces) have almost the same dimensions, per coin, as a nickel. diameter of 21.2 mm for the nickel, 21. 6 to 22.05 for the gold coins, the thickness is about the same.

40 nickels in a roll. . .
Gold coins the size of nickel in the same roll - at the current physical spot close yesterday - just under $20,000.
 

CO skier

TUG Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2012
Messages
4,106
Reaction score
2,357
Points
448
Location
Colorado
I never thought there would be a "hard money" thread on a luxury vacation site. . . .:ponder:
If (when) the price of gold reaches $2,100/ounce, I will consider selling a couple ounces of gold bullion and buying a few vacations, including some nice dinners out, with the proceeds.
 

ScoopKona

Guest
Joined
May 7, 2008
Messages
5,722
Reaction score
3,309
Points
598
Location
Monkey King Coffee - Captain Cook, Hawaii
To put the economic density of gold in perspective:

How much in monthly/quarterly dividends has gold paid throughout your life?

I always compare it to having a supermodel who has taken a vow of chastity living with you -- attractive to look at, doesn't actually do anything.
 

Carolinian

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
10,644
Reaction score
935
Points
598
Location
eastern Europe
To put the economic density of gold in perspective:

Have you ever held a roll of US nickels in your hand?

1/4 Troy ounce gold coins (and their near cousins - Sovereigns and $5 US gold pieces) have almost the same dimensions, per coin, as a nickel. diameter of 21.2 mm for the nickel, 21. 6 to 22.05 for the gold coins, the thickness is about the same.

40 nickels in a roll. . .
Gold coins the size of nickel in the same roll - at the current physical spot close yesterday - just under $20,000.
I like the Imperial German 20 mark pieces of 1871-1918 which have the exact same gold content as the British sovereign but have a lower premium and can be bought for $15-30 per coin less. I have some sovereigns, too, but I like the lower premiums of the 20 marks.
 

CO skier

TUG Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2012
Messages
4,106
Reaction score
2,357
Points
448
Location
Colorado
How much in monthly/quarterly dividends has gold paid throughout your life?

I always compare it to having a supermodel who has taken a vow of chastity living with you -- attractive to look at, doesn't actually do anything.
It should be clear by this point that the precious metal owners participating in this thread place absolutely no value in your opinions (and that is all that they are).
 

DeniseM

Moderator
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
57,668
Reaction score
9,087
Points
1,849
Resorts Owned
WKORV, WKV, 2-SDO, 4-Kauai Beach Villas, Island Park Village (Yellowstone), Hyatt High Sierra, Dolphin's Cove (Anaheim)
It should be clear by this point that the precious metal owners participating in this thread place absolutely no value in your opinions (and that is all that they are).
CO Skier - Isn't it annoying when someone who doesn't know what they are talking about insists on bombarding your thread with self-serving opinions? :LOL:

(ScooopKona - this isn't directed at you.)
 

CO skier

TUG Member
Joined
Sep 18, 2012
Messages
4,106
Reaction score
2,357
Points
448
Location
Colorado
CO Skier - Isn't it annoying when someone who doesn't know what they are talking about insists on bombarding your thread with self-serving opinions? :LOL:
About the only thing worse is when people post made up "facts" ;) or revisionist history.
 

ScoopKona

Guest
Joined
May 7, 2008
Messages
5,722
Reaction score
3,309
Points
598
Location
Monkey King Coffee - Captain Cook, Hawaii
It should be clear by this point that the precious metal owners participating in this thread place absolutely no value in your opinions (and that is all that they are).

Here's the thing. We're not Zimbabwe. We're not Venezuela. We're not the Weimar Republic. If the US Dollar utterly collapses, gold isn't going to be worth [excrement], either.

What will be worth having? Defensible arable land, crops, ammunition, the ability to create antibiotics from scratch or set a broken bone, breathable atmosphere and most of all, potable water.

Gold is the lazy prepper's hedge against a Mad-Max dystopia. Preppers in name only who don't want to do any homework. "Well, I have guns and gold. What else could I possibly need?"

Most gold coins do nothing other than take up space. And if they truly were the be-all-and-end-all of investment vehicles, nobody would willingly sell it. They would horde their bullion like Scrooge McDuck. Instead, we have a cyclical trade system where overpriced gold is sold to people who think the world will collapse. And then the gold is repurchased at a deep discount, only to be resold to the next person who has read too much Ludwig von Mises.

Not only do I think that gold isn't a good investment, I don't consider it an investment, period. The only thing I would do with a ton of gold (if I were to find some hidden in a cave on my farm) is sell it and use the proceeds to invest in something that actually appreciates and pays dividends.
 

ScoopKona

Guest
Joined
May 7, 2008
Messages
5,722
Reaction score
3,309
Points
598
Location
Monkey King Coffee - Captain Cook, Hawaii
I think your thing is that you think your opnion is the only one that matters, and that you can justify it only by using extreme edge cases.

Every person who ever sold you gold had the same opinion -- they would rather have currency and then spend it on something more useful than gold.
 
Top