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The recent silver market

Carolinian

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Silver has had a dip recently and I have been trying to buy what I can, but availablility has really dried up on a lot of things. Fortunately, one of the analysts I watched had accurately predicted the timing of the dip and how low it would go, so I resisted the temptation to get in on the early stages of the dip, and was able to buy at the bottom. The problem these days is finding what you want to buy. I buy monetary coins, same as I do with gold, not the bullion coins, and with silver, mostly pre-1965 US along with some pre-1968 Canadian. I used to be that a wide range of products was almost constantly available but in the last month or so, that has become very restricted, and premiums have widened for some products. Half dollars, for example now carry a significantly higher premium than dimes or quarters. Only one of the bullion companies I deal with still has a not so bad premium of half dollars. In the past, one could buy older coin types like Mercury dimes or Walking Liberty halves for the same price or only a tiny higher premium than more recent silver coins. That has largely changed. One major bullion company I deal with is only offering coins by denomination, no longer by type. Another still has mercuries and walking liberties but at much higher premiums. The third still has both at reasonable premiums but they are usually out of stock. I watch mulitple times daily and have found them in stock a few times and grabbed them while they were available. I have never seen the silver market this restricted on availability.
 

easyrider

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Silicon Valley Bank having the meltdown might bounce precious metals. I was reading that the SVB and Silvergate Capitol problem is similar to the events leading up to the Lehman Brothers. Precious metal prices bounced around quite a bit after that. I had thought that spot silver would hit $30 this year but with the banking meltdown ongoing and the Fed no longer buying mortgage backed securities spot might decline to half the cost of production. Then it would be demand that drives spot up, imo.

Bill
 

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Silicon Valley Bank having the meltdown might bounce precious metals. I was reading that the SVB and Silvergate Capitol problem is similar to the events leading up to the Lehman Brothers. Precious metal prices bounced around quite a bit after that. I had thought that spot silver would hit $30 this year but with the banking meltdown ongoing and the Fed no longer buying mortgage backed securities spot might decline to half the cost of production. Then it would be demand that drives spot up, imo.

Bill

I don't think there is a "banking meltdown" but rising interest rates negatively affects banks' net interest margin between loans and deposits

The Silicon Valley Bank collapse appears to be "company specific"
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/10/investing/svb-banking-crisis-what-next/index.html
 

dioxide45

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easyrider

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I don't think there is a "banking meltdown" but rising interest rates negatively affects banks' net interest margin between loans and deposits

The Silicon Valley Bank collapse appears to be "company specific"
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/10/investing/svb-banking-crisis-what-next/index.html

Silvergate was first to go down because of the crypto liquidation and bank run. I think regulators have taken over Silicon Valley Bank today. First Republic Bank in SF has been getting hammered today. I'm thinking because the Fed stopped buying mbs's a few months back there will be increased exposure to all financial institutions that bundled or even hold these derivatives. Hot potato might be what's happening, idk. Whatever is happening isn't good.

Bill

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-banks-wrapup-1-2023-03-10/
 
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Ralph Sir Edward

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Silver has had a dip recently and I have been trying to buy what I can, but availablility has really dried up on a lot of things. Fortunately, one of the analysts I watched had accurately predicted the timing of the dip and how low it would go, so I resisted the temptation to get in on the early stages of the dip, and was able to buy at the bottom. The problem these days is finding what you want to buy. I buy monetary coins, same as I do with gold, not the bullion coins, and with silver, mostly pre-1965 US along with some pre-1968 Canadian. I used to be that a wide range of products was almost constantly available but in the last month or so, that has become very restricted, and premiums have widened for some products. Half dollars, for example now carry a significantly higher premium than dimes or quarters. Only one of the bullion companies I deal with still has a not so bad premium of half dollars. In the past, one could buy older coin types like Mercury dimes or Walking Liberty halves for the same price or only a tiny higher premium than more recent silver coins. That has largely changed. One major bullion company I deal with is only offering coins by denomination, no longer by type. Another still has mercuries and walking liberties but at much higher premiums. The third still has both at reasonable premiums but they are usually out of stock. I watch mulitple times daily and have found them in stock a few times and grabbed them while they were available. I have never seen the silver market this restricted on availability.
There's only so much old coinage out there. With more and more demand for it, the actual price goes up.

You might look at US commemorative dollars. The first 2-3 are just bullion , trading at less than other silver dollars.
 

Carolinian

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There's only so much old coinage out there. With more and more demand for it, the actual price goes up.

You might look at US commemorative dollars. The first 2-3 are just bullion , trading at less than other silver dollars.
One thing I have been buying is Canadian silver dollars, which still have a reasonable premium.
 

Carolinian

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Silvergate was first to go down because of the crypto liquidation and bank run. I think regulators have taken over Silicon Valley Bank today. First Republic Bank in SF has been getting hammered today. I'm thinking because the Fed stopped buying mbs's a few months back there will be increased exposure to all financial institutions that bundled or even hold these derivatives. Hot potato might be what's happening, idk. Whatever is happening isn't good.

Bill

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-banks-wrapup-1-2023-03-10/

 

pedro47

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There's only so much old coinage out there. With more and more demand for it, the actual price goes up.

You might look at US commemorative dollars. The first 2-3 are just bullion , trading at less than other silver dollars.
Have old Gold Pandas coins increased in value?
 

Carolinian

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Have old Gold Pandas coins increased in value?

Gold pandas are Chinese bullion coins. Bullion coins are struck in denominations of weight (quarter ounces, half ounce, ounce) rather than a monetary value. They are typically high mintage and their value is spot gold value plus a premium. Some, like the US eagles have a higher end premium, and others like the South African Kruggerrand a lower end premium. I do not buy bullion coins myself and thus do not know where the Chinese pandas fall on that scale, but even so, most of the value of them is their bullion content. So, if gold is higher than when you bought them, they have become more valuable.

The gold I buy is monetary gold that has a low premium over spot. For example, I used to buy the 1967 Canada hundred years of independence gold $20 commeroratives at about 4% over spot. They contain 0.52 ounce of gold and were twenty to thirty dollars cheaper than the bullion coin half ounce Canada Maple Leafs with only 0.50 ounce of gold. They had more gold, were cheaper, and were monetary rather than bullion coins. Unfortunately, the supplier who most often has these in stock is now pricing them at over 10% over spot, and the supplier who still prices them at about 5% over spot never seems to have any.
 
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Patri

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I have silver coins in my safe deposit box. From my dad and grandpa. May just leave them there.
 

pedro47

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We also have Pandas and US silver coins in our safe deposit box. I’m going to leave them there for that rainy day emergency.
 

slip

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I have heard many people buy gold and silver. They say they are either waiting for the huge economic downturn or they say it's a hedge on inflation. All those people I know that did this die with gold and silver in their safes at home. I don't judge, to each their own. I'm sure the value went up over the years. Some more than others.
 

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Gold and silver are reasonable investment vehicles. I bet those people died with money in the bank too, or an IRA account. Like most other investments, they can go up and down. They are also a bit more liquid than a stock or bond, which require a broker or exchange to convert.

Anyone who exclusively investing in just one thing, or only has cash, is open to far more risk of losing everything than being diversified.

Besides, a nice little pile of mercury dimes or walking liberty half dollars are pretty.
 

slip

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Gold and silver are reasonable investment vehicles. I bet those people died with money in the bank too, or an IRA account. Like most other investments, they can go up and down. They are also a bit more liquid than a stock or bond, which require a broker or exchange to convert.

Anyone who exclusively investing in just one thing, or only has cash, is open to far more risk of losing everything than being diversified.

Besides, a nice little pile of mercury dimes or walking liberty half dollars are pretty.

Sure, they had other assets. Some were really rich and some weren't. Maybe they just wanted to pass the gold to heirs?
 

1Kflyerguy

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I keep thinking of buying some precious metals, but never actually pull the trigger on physical metal. I do own some via ETF.s
 

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I keep thinking of buying some precious metals, but never actually pull the trigger on physical metal. I do own some via ETF.s

Metal and Crypto are the two things I simply will not invest in. I have a lovely Atocha coin because Mel Fisher was a good friend. But that isn't an investment. It's jewelry.

I 100% agree with Slip. Most people who invest in gold end up dying with unrealized profits/losses. The only people who actually make money with gold are: Gold miners; people who buy and sell gold for a living; and the heirs of the people who invested in gold. Gold has been historically flat for centuries -- a single 8.3 gram Aureus was enough to buy a nice toga in the Roman forum. And a good suit today costs the same.

I agree with being diversified. But not gold or crypto. One is a lousy investment. The other is a crazy investment.
 

Carolinian

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Metal and Crypto are the two things I simply will not invest in. I have a lovely Atocha coin because Mel Fisher was a good friend. But that isn't an investment. It's jewelry.

I 100% agree with Slip. Most people who invest in gold end up dying with unrealized profits/losses. The only people who actually make money with gold are: Gold miners; people who buy and sell gold for a living; and the heirs of the people who invested in gold. Gold has been historically flat for centuries -- a single 8.3 gram Aureus was enough to buy a nice toga in the Roman forum. And a good suit today costs the same.

I agree with being diversified. But not gold or crypto. One is a lousy investment. The other is a crazy investment.

One of the coins I have bought a lot of are Imperial German 20 mark gold pieces. They have the exact gold content of the very popular British sovereign but can be bought for $15 to $30 less per coin. I can usually get them around 6% over spot and they contain a bit less than a quarter of an ounce of gold.

I think of the Germans who were lucky enough to have these same coins in 1923. They still had the same buying power that they always did, while those with paper money or bank accounts had to take a wheel barrow full of money to the store to buy a loaf of bread.

Or on a more personal level, when I was in high school and college, I ran a mail order business in German and Imperial Austrian coins. During that time, I only handled two gold pieces a Saxony gold 10 marks of the 1870s and an Austrian gold four ducats restrike dated 1915. The latter I remember buying for $16 and selling for $35 which was the catalogue value at the time, but that coin is priced at over $1,000 today. If I had a crystal ball in those days, I would have held on to both of them. I don't remember the numbers off hand on the Saxony coin but they were probably similar. I have bought a stack of the 4 ducat pieces, which contain 0.4428 ounce of gold in the last few years, paying around $800 each. For years, two of the three bullion dealers I usually deal with priced these coins when they had them at a low premium over spot, one at 4% over and the other at 3% over. Now both want more than 10% over spot for them.

My wife grew up in eastern Europe (and has three citizenships, US plus one EU country plus one non-EU country) and she well remembers one day when an amount of money that in the morning would buy an apartment in the same afternoon would only buy a bicycle. She is a big fan of holding gold and silver, but we also invest in real estate where we have a rental income.

In recent years there has been a lot of gold buying by central banks, and I suspect they know what they are doing.

I will be watching the SVB impact on the precious metals market. Financial turmoil elsewhere can push two ways on precious metals, up in a flight to safety, and down as people liquidate paper gold or silver contracts to cover margin calls. Often there is a temporary move downward followed by a movement upward. So far, both gold and silver have been up since the SVB problems. Silver also moves on industrial demand, and the solar energy craze that seems to just be getting started is going to require a lot of silver.
 
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ScoopKona

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I think of the Germans who were lucky enough to have these same coins in 1923. They still had the same buying power that they always did, while those with paper money or bank accounts had to take a wheel barrow full of money to the store to buy a loaf of bread.

More ZeroHedge talk. We're not going to have Weimar Republic levels of inflation. Not happening. There are ALWAYS better investments than gold.

Your argument is akin to "when we no longer have any gasoline, you're going to be thankful you held on to those roller skates!"

Non sequitur.
 

easyrider

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Gold and silver are reasonable investment vehicles. I bet those people died with money in the bank too, or an IRA account. Like most other investments, they can go up and down. They are also a bit more liquid than a stock or bond, which require a broker or exchange to convert.

Anyone who exclusively investing in just one thing, or only has cash, is open to far more risk of losing everything than being diversified.

Besides, a nice little pile of mercury dimes or walking liberty half dollars are pretty.

I don't consider precious metals an investment. I guess it can be but most people I know just pass it on down to their family. If for some reason the price increases substantially it would be fun to think of selling it.

Bill
 

Carolinian

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More ZeroHedge talk. We're not going to have Weimar Republic levels of inflation. Not happening. There are ALWAYS better investments than gold.

Your argument is akin to "when we no longer have any gasoline, you're going to be thankful you held on to those roller skates!"

Non sequitur.

So you think you know better than the central banks that have been on a gold buying spree lately?

You can stick with your knee jerk ideological positions all you want but I have a good friend who is an international financial analyst and he is personally stocking up on gold (though he is not a big fan of silver). He does not hold any more US dollars than he has to and what fiat currencies he holds are mostly others. He has made a good living doing financial analysis and I suspect he knows just a little more about what is going on in the financial world than you do.

I note that gold and silver are both climbing this morning due to the SVB mess. Good thing I pulled the trigger on a silver order last evening.

I hope a run on the dollar never happens but the reality is that if one starts it will go fast for the reason that the dollar is a major reserve currency and there are lots of dollars out there around the world in both private and central bank hands. If a run starts, many of those are going to be dumped very quickly.

Dumping currencies can impact their value very quickly, and I will point to a small run that was never a panic, that involved the Deutsche Mark and the euro. There was a significant weakening of the Deutsche Mark and therefore the euro in the early days before the physical euro was introduced that puzzled many financial analysts because there was nothing in the fundamentals of the currencies to account for it. Finally, an analyst at The Economist magazine figured it out. What was happening was that with the physical mark banknotes about to be demonetized, the families in eastern Europe and some other places holding them as "mattress money", savings held in foreign currencies hidden at home such as in a mattress, were having to convert those to other hard currencies like dollars and Swiss francs. So were the criminal elements who had stashes of marks that they could not exactly go deposit in a bank. This did not cause a run, but it significantly depressed the value of the mark and of the euro, whose value was based on a basket of currencies including the mark. The amount of funds involved was much less than what a run would produce but more than enough to move the needle on currency value.
 
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Ralph Sir Edward

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Metal and Crypto are the two things I simply will not invest in. I have a lovely Atocha coin because Mel Fisher was a good friend. But that isn't an investment. It's jewelry.

I 100% agree with Slip. Most people who invest in gold end up dying with unrealized profits/losses. The only people who actually make money with gold are: Gold miners; people who buy and sell gold for a living; and the heirs of the people who invested in gold. Gold has been historically flat for centuries -- a single 8.3 gram Aureus was enough to buy a nice toga in the Roman forum. And a good suit today costs the same.

I agree with being diversified. But not gold or crypto. One is a lousy investment. The other is a crazy investment.
The point of metal investments is not to make a profit, but to preserve wealth. The market in them varies depending on the attitude of central banks, and the populace in general. If it takes lump of gold/silver to let you sleep better at night, so be it. I see no reason to judge. You can say that life insurance does the same job. I don't sneer at people who buy life insurance either. (The person will never see the money, either, just his/her heirs.)

Fiat currencies fail. The question is not if, but in whose lifetime they will fail in.
 

Carolinian

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I don't consider precious metals an investment. I guess it can be but most people I know just pass it on down to their family. If for some reason the price increases substantially it would be fun to think of selling it.

Bill

Most of those who invest in precious metals who do not intend to hold it long term do so through "paper gold" contracts, a contractual ownership of part of a pile of gold or silver that is supposed to be in someone's vault. The reason they do so is that transactions can be done much quicker and with fewer transaction costs. (I received an email earlier today from one of the bullion dealers I buy from that silver is up 6.5% this morning, gold, too, but not as much)

There has always been a debate as to whether the companies that run these paper gold and silver contracts actually have the full amount of metal in their vaults to back up their contracts, or whether they behave like banks only keeping a percentage of cash (or metal) on hand to cover what they think customers will actually demand.

An interesting result is that when there is a gold price dip from people meeting margin calls on a dip in some other investment, it is the paper gold that gets sold, and supplies of physical gold due to people buying the dip tend to deplete on the market.

One of my brothers is invested in both paper and physical gold, but I have always stuck to physical metals.

If one has to sell physical, they need an outlet. All of the major bullion companies will buy most gold and silver products at any time, but there are other ways that generate higher prices. I know a number of local people who invest in physical gold and silver, and it would be no problem to get a price somewhere between the buying and selling price of the bullion dealers from them. Someone in an adjoining county had an interesting way to sell his silver, taking out an ad in a local newspaper offering several hundred Liberty Walking half dollars at a price that was about a dollar above what the bullion companies were then charging. I figured he would never get that and waited a week and called to offer something close to the buying price of the bullion dealers, but he told me he had over thirty calls and had sold all of them to the first caller at his advertised price. He told me that he had intended to keep them but an emergency had come up.

One caution is over some companies that promote "physical gold IRAs" and base their tax advice on some questionable interpretations of IRS regs. Anyone thinking of going that way should consult their own accountant on it.
 
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easyrider

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Most of those who invest in precious metals who do not intend to hold it long term do so through "paper gold" contracts, a contractual ownership of part of a pile of gold or silver that is supposed to be in someone's vault. The reason they do so is that transactions can be done much quicker and with fewer transaction costs. (I received an email earlier today from one of the bullion dealers I buy from that silver is up 6.5% this morning, gold, too, but not as much)

There has always been a debate as to whether the companies that run these paper gold and silver contracts actually have the full amount of metal in their vaults to back up their contracts, or whether they behave like banks only keeping a percentage of cash (or metal) on hand to cover what they think customers will actually demand.

An interesting result is that when there is a gold price dip from people meeting margin calls on a dip in some other investment, it is the paper gold that gets sold, and supplies of physical gold due to people buying the dip tend to deplete on the market.

One of my brothers is invested in both paper and physical gold, but I have always stuck to physical metals.

If one has to sell physical, they need an outlet. All of the major bullion companies will buy most gold and silver products at any time, but there are other ways that generate higher prices. I know a number of local people who invest in physical gold and silver, and it would be no problem to get a price somewhere between the buying and selling price of the bullion dealers from them. Someone in an adjoining county had an interesting way to sell his silver, taking out an ad in a local newspaper offering several hundred Liberty Walking half dollars at a price that was about a dollar above what the bullion companies were then charging. I figured he would never get that and waited a week and called to offer something close to the buying price of the bullion dealers, but he told me he had over thirty calls and had sold all of them to the first caller at his advertised price. He told me that he had intended to keep them but an emergency had come up.

One caution is over some companies that promote "physical gold IRAs" and base their tax advice on some questionable interpretations of IRS regs. Anyone thinking of going that way should consult their own accountant on it.

The premiums took a jump today. It seems that a popular way to withdraw large funds out of a bank is an ACH. Some of those funds should be clearing and are heading to precious metals both paper and physical.

Bill
 
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