The recent silver market

[Carolinian]

You are cherry picking the absolute best date for gold -- when gold prices stopped being regulated. Pick some random date in the 1980s and try again.

Gold Bugs ignore the fact that if we go back on the gold standard, all the old rules (including riff-raff not being allowed to own any) will go right back in place. Google "Executive Order 6102."

Just like you anti-gold folks like to compare the decades in which gold prices were fixed by international agreement and stock markets were free to rise and fall. It would be like comparing real estate prices for a period in which rent controls were in effect.

To compensate for the change from the fixed price, an appropriate starting point would be 6 months or a year after gold was freed from its fixed price.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

You are cherry picking the absolute best date for gold -- when gold prices stopped being regulated. Pick some random date in the 1980s and try again.

Gold Bugs ignore the fact that if we go back on the gold standard, all the old rules (including riff-raff not being allowed to own any) will go right back in place. Google "Executive Order 6102."

Neither I OR the article were "cherry-picking" dates. August 15th 1971 is a key date in gold and the dollar. Even though FDR confiscated gold coins and bullion in the period of 1933 to 1934, non-US citizens (and more importantly) foreign central banks could still exchange US dollars for gold at $35/Oz. In 1958 the US started to run negative balances of trade. Rather than use the US dollars to buy more US goods and services, European central banks (particularly France) made a point of requesting Gold instead. The US gold reserves steadily melted away, until Tricky DIck Nixon closed "the gold window", i.e. disconnect the dollar totally from gold. Since the dollar had been disconnected from silver in 1965 (under LBJ) on that date, August 15th, 1971, the US dollar became fully a fiat currency, backed only by the confidence in it.

So if you want to measure gold versus the FIAT US dollar, that has to be the starting date.

Now there have been periods since August 15th, 1971 where gold has strongly outperformed the stock market (measured in dollars), and periods where the stock market (measured in dollars) has strongly outperformed gold . I did not pick any period inside this range to support gold (or stocks in dollars, for that matter), I just looked at the whole range. Any subset would truly be "cherry-picking" the data. If you want "cherry picking", try the August low in 1999 for gold versus the DJIA to date. Gold clearly outperformed the DJIA in this period - 22 years.

Quite bluntly, Scoop, if you want to pontificate on a subject, you ought study it first. Otherwise, you just end up looking like a right burke.

 

[ScoopKona]

Any subset would truly be "cherry-picking" the data. If you want "cherry picking", try the August low in 1999 for gold versus the DJIA to date. Gold clearly outperformed the DJIA in this period - 22 years.

You are picking the last time the price of gold was set by the government as a benchmark.

That would be like comparing the East German mark to the Euro.

 

[ScoopKona]

The price of gold before August 1971 was $35/ounce.

Today it's $2000.

$1000 invested in $35 per ounce gold in 1971 would be worth $57,000 today.

The same $1000 invested in large caps* with dividend reinvestment plans would be worth $2.5 million. Check and mate.

Stocks vs. Gold and Silver - Updated Chart | LongtermTrends

Stocks vs. Gold: which is the better long-term investment? These charts compare the performance of the S&P 500 (with and without dividends) to gold and silver.

www.longtermtrends.net

* Don't like the stock market? I don't -- at least not individual stocks. There are REITs and diversified funds which also blow gold away, because of DRIP. That's the point, the whole point, and nothing but the point -- gold just sits there, looking pretty, doing nothing. I'm a slave driver when it comes to investments -- work every day the market is open, all day long, or get sold. Even if I found a cache of rhodium, which is worth 25 times that of gold because the people who need it are a captive market -- I'd just sell it to NASA and use the money to do something more useful.

 

[Carolinian]

The cheap way: https://www.thefisch.com/
Drawback. Only certain coins have a tester. There isn't one for 20 francs or German 20 marks.

It tests a British sovereign which has the same amount of gold as a German 20 mark, so why not a 20 mark? Is the alloy, diameter, or thickness that different? The silver coins of that period also line up between the British and German, 6 pence = 50 pfennig, 1 shilling = 1 mark, florin = 2 marks, crown = 5 marks

It is odd that it does not have a test for the 20 francs of the Latin Monetary Union countries (France, Switzerland, Italy, Belgium, Papal States) as that has been their most common denomination and those coins are popular with those who buy gold. Those countries all minted their coins on the same standard and they could be spent in the other countries of Union. Up until changing to the kronen standard in 1892, Austria also minted two interchangable gold coins, the 8 florin / 20 franc, and the 4 florin / 10 franc, and the 1892 dates of those coins have been periodically restruck by the Vienna mint ever since.

 

[Carolinian]

The price of gold before August 1971 was $35/ounce.

Today it's $2000.

$1000 invested in $35 per ounce gold in 1971 would be worth $57,000 today.

The same $1000 invested in large caps* with dividend reinvestment plans would be worth $2.5 million. Check and mate.



l.

Those with their assets in gold and silver in 1929 did not have to join often futile lines at banks or feel obligated to jump off of buildings.

Those with their money in real estate did not have the value they had had earlier but at least had something.

Many paper assets, however, became little more than toilet paper.

 

[ScoopKona]

Those with their assets in gold and silver in 1929 did not have to join often futile lines at banks or feel obligated to jump off of buildings.

Those with their money in real estate did not have the value they had had earlier but at least had something.

Many paper assets, however, became little more than toilet paper.

Again, let's stay in the current century. The Dutch Tulip Bubble isn't germane to this conversation, either. Neither is the Hungarian Pengoe. And if the Yap islanders ran into economic issues with their big horkin' stone coins, that is also irrelevant.

Gold doesn't pay dividends and there are much better ways of holding value and/or shorting the US economy. It is simply "Money 1.0." And it has become a faith-based instrument for people who worship at the altar of the Austrian school of economics -- a system which has never been put into practice because it makes about as much sense as Scientology.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

It tests a British sovereign which has the same amount of gold as a German 20 mark, so why not a 20 mark? Is the alloy, diameter, or thickness that different? The silver coins of that period also line up between the British and German, 6 pence = 50 pfennig, 1 shilling = 1 mark, florin = 2 marks, crown = 5 marks

It is odd that it does not have a test for the 20 francs of the Latin Monetary Union countries (France, Switzerland, Italy, Belgium, Papal States) as that has been their most common denomination and those coins are popular with those who buy gold. Those countries all minted their coins on the same standard and they could be spent in the other countries of Union. Up until changing to the kronen standard in 1892, Austria also minted two interchangable gold coins, the 8 florin / 20 franc, and the 4 florin / 10 franc, and the 1892 dates of those coins have been periodically restruck by the Vienna mint ever since.

Not odd when you've seen one. They are hard plastic tetter-totters with an indentation of exactly the right diameter for the coin, and a hole just the right thickness for the coin to slip through. It measures the weight by putting the coin in the indentation and setting the teeter-totter on a level surface. If the coins weighs enough it will slowly tip over to the coin side. Otherwise, it is an underweight counterfeit. If it doesn't fit the indentation, then it's an oversized diameter, and that would make it a lower gold amount counterfeit. If it too thick to slide through the hole, t's also a low amount gold counterfeit. It can't detect a platinum or tungsten counterfeit, as both of those metals are as dense as gold. (Osmium is even more dense, but highly toxic. Very unlikely to be used.)

Weight, thickness and diameter test constitute the equivalent of a specific gravity density test. (I have seen photos of similar gadgets made in the 1800's) Only if the coins have exactly the same weight diameter and thickness can the test gadget be used. Even a .1 mm off with be detected. German coins are 23mm, if memory serves. They also spec out at .2305 AGW, not the .2354 of a sovereign.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

The price of gold before August 1971 was $35/ounce.

Today it's $2000.

$1000 invested in $35 per ounce gold in 1971 would be worth $57,000 today.

The same $1000 invested in large caps* with dividend reinvestment plans would be worth $2.5 million. Check and mate.

Stocks vs. Gold and Silver - Updated Chart | LongtermTrends

Stocks vs. Gold: which is the better long-term investment? These charts compare the performance of the S&P 500 (with and without dividends) to gold and silver.

www.longtermtrends.net

* Don't like the stock market? I don't -- at least not individual stocks. There are REITs and diversified funds which also blow gold away, because of DRIP. That's the point, the whole point, and nothing but the point -- gold just sits there, looking pretty, doing nothing. I'm a slave driver when it comes to investments -- work every day the market is open, all day long, or get sold. Even if I found a cache of rhodium, which is worth 25 times that of gold because the people who need it are a captive market -- I'd just sell it to NASA and use the money to do something more useful.

Ever heard of survivor bias?

It's August 15, 1971, and I have $1,000 to invest. I buy the DJIA - more accurately the 30 stock in the DJIA on August 15, 1971. I hold those stocks and no others, just like I buy $1000 worth of gold. NO swapping out one component for another. Buy and hold.

The stocks:

Allied Chemical Corporation † (formerly Allied Chemical and Dye Corporation)	General Electric Company	Sears Roebuck & Company
Aluminum Company of America ↑	General Foods Corporation	Standard Oil Co. of California
American Can Company	General Motors Corporation	Standard Oil Co. of New Jersey
American Telephone and Telegraph Company	Goodyear Tire and Rubber Company	Swift & Company ↑
American Tobacco Company (B shares)	International Harvester Company	Texaco Incorporated † (formerly The Texas Company)
Anaconda Copper Mining Company ↑	International Nickel Company, Ltd.	Union Carbide Corporation
Bethlehem Steel Corporation	International Paper Company	United Aircraft Corporation
Chrysler Corporation	Johns-Manville Corporation	United States Steel Corporation
E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company	Owens-Illinois, Inc. ↑	Westinghouse Electric Corporation
Eastman Kodak Company	The Procter & Gamble Company	F. W. Woolworth Company

RED means company went bankrupt - no longer exists or shareholders at the time were wiped out.

PURPLE - Ecological disaster companies.

The "dealing off the bottom of the deck" of averages are that the components get swapped in and out. You never see the dropped components fail.

You see, Scoop, I had a hobby from 1986 to 1994. I bought shares of stock for the certificates. Bought over 70 different companies, a share or 2, for the dividends. Think of them as oversized postage stamps.They were the only collectible that paid you to hold them. As long as they stayed solvent. around 40% either went broke or were bought out. I saw dividend raises and dividend cuts and omissions.

So if you want to do a REAL comparison, take these stocks, and see where the remaining companies are, and for the merged companies, only the percent value of the combines company based on the merger price, and then reinvest the dividends in the surviving companies <AFTER TAXES ARE PAID ON THE DIVIDENDS>, and in the end add up all the values. I don't think it would be 2.5 million.

 

[ScoopKona]

The "dealing off the bottom of the deck" of averages are that the components get swapped in and out. You never see the dropped components fail. [MUCH DELETED] I don't think it would be 2.5 million.

I never buy individual stocks. Waste of time and effort. Basically, it's gambling.

We hold VFIAX, QQQ, and my wife bought CGMRX at the IPO and held it until the fund was dissolved. We have other Vanguard funds. And a couple other REITs. All funds DIRT enabled. Beats a stack of gold coins squirreled away behind the drywall, doing nothing.

Again, there are two things we won't buy -- commodities and crypto. And for the same reason. Anything else we'll consider.

 

[easyrider]

Again, there are two things we won't buy -- commodities and crypto

Says the guy that grows the most traded commodity in the world, lol.

Bill

 

[Carolinian]

Not odd when you've seen one. They are hard plastic tetter-totters with an indentation of exactly the right diameter for the coin, and a hole just the right thickness for the coin to slip through. It measures the weight by putting the coin in the indentation and setting the teeter-totter on a level surface. If the coins weighs enough it will slowly tip over to the coin side. Otherwise, it is an underweight counterfeit. If it doesn't fit the indentation, then it's an oversized diameter, and that would make it a lower gold amount counterfeit. If it too thick to slide through the hole, t's also a low amount gold counterfeit. It can't detect a platinum or tungsten counterfeit, as both of those metals are as dense as gold. (Osmium is even more dense, but highly toxic. Very unlikely to be used.)

Weight, thickness and diameter test constitute the equivalent of a specific gravity density test. (I have seen photos of similar gadgets made in the 1800's) Only if the coins have exactly the same weight diameter and thickness can the test gadget be used. Even a .1 mm off with be detected. German coins are 23mm, if memory serves. They also spec out at .2305 AGW, not the .2354 of a sovereign.

I buy my gold and most silver from major bullion dealers who do their own testing when they buy, but things like this would be helpful if I find an individual wanting to sell. One I would be curious about is the Canada George V $10 and $5 pieces of 1911-1914, which I have some of. The $10 piece is .4837 ounce compared to the $10 Liberty US gold eagle at .4838 ounce

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Canadian gold $10 (1911-1914) are more a numismatic coin than a bullion coin. See the following link:

$10 Bank of Canada Gold Coins (1912, 1913, 1914)

Canada’s gold coins have a spotty history indeed. The longest any type lasted in circulation was just eight years, tied between the intermittently minted $2 Newfoundland Gold Coin and Gold Sovereign. Although predated by the $2 Newfoundland piece (1865–1888) and

www.canadiangoldauctions.com

They are a copy of the US $10 in weight, fineness, diameter, and thickness. A US $10 fisch should work just fine.

I'm like Ronald Reagan - trust but verify. . .

 

[Carolinian]

Canadian gold $10 (1911-1914) are more a numismatic coin than a bullion coin. See the following link:

$10 Bank of Canada Gold Coins (1912, 1913, 1914)

Canada’s gold coins have a spotty history indeed. The longest any type lasted in circulation was just eight years, tied between the intermittently minted $2 Newfoundland Gold Coin and Gold Sovereign. Although predated by the $2 Newfoundland piece (1865–1888) and

www.canadiangoldauctions.com

They are a copy of the US $10 in weight, fineness, diameter, and thickness. A US $10 fisch should work just fine.

I'm like Ronald Reagan - trust but verify. . .

Actually, until a few months ago, they could be bought $30 to $40 cheaper than the US $10 Liberty eagles, so the premium over spot was as good as most bullion coins, yet they were a monetary / numismatic coin. That is the type of coin I like to buy.

In World War I, the Canadian government took them from banks and held them in the national treasury, although they were not taken away from private individuals who held them. They were called "Reserve Gold". Fairly recently, the government remembered they had them and decided to release a certain percentage of those in the best condition for sale to the public and melt the rest of them.

 

[Carolinian]

Again, let's stay in the current century. The Dutch Tulip Bubble isn't germane to this conversation, either. Neither is the Hungarian Pengoe. And if the Yap islanders ran into economic issues with their big horkin' stone coins, that is also irrelevant.

Gold doesn't pay dividends and there are much better ways of holding value and/or shorting the US economy. It is simply "Money 1.0." And it has become a faith-based instrument for people who worship at the altar of the Austrian school of economics -- a system which has never been put into practice because it makes about as much sense as Scientology.

Maybe you ought to be looking at economic threats that did not exist in the past like "Modern Monetary Theory" which says a government can print all the money it wants with no ill effects. What could go wrong with that?

Then there is the impact of being the world's reserve currency and gobs of dollars being used all over the world as a result. If a run ever gets going on the dollar, that would cause it to snowball quickly. Then there is China sitting on a vast pile of dollars. While it would hurt them, too, to do it, it would hurt them much less, they could easily start a run on the dollar with all of them they have. That might be viewed as an easier way to defeat the US than fighting a war. There are modern economic dangers that did not exist in the past.

While real estate is where most of our money sits, we keep a pile of gold and silver, too.

 

[Carolinian]

Ouch! the premiums seem to have gone up ten points this morning at all the bullion companies, so something where yesterday there was a 20% premium over spot, today it is 30% over spot. I am seeing that in silver, but somewhat less so in gold. Still a largely bare cupboard on availability and that explains the premium jump.

 

[easyrider]

Ouch! the premiums seem to have gone up ten points this morning at all the bullion companies, so something where yesterday there was a 20% premium over spot, today it is 30% over spot. I am seeing that in silver, but somewhat less so in gold. Still a largely bare cupboard on availability and that explains the premium jump.

I like JM Bullion's website in that they show their prices and the spot price. For me, anything $1 over spot is too much regarding a tube of 20. I was looking at Eagles and see they are selling fast up to $39 using a credit card. Spot is about $23 so they want a $16 premium. I doesn't seem too long ago that the premium was a few bucks. Some one told me to check ebay and I see rounds like mine selling for over $40 and people are buying them. I don't get it.

Bill

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

I like JM Bullion's website in that they show their prices and the spot price. For me, anything $1 over spot is too much regarding a tube of 20. I was looking at Eagles and see they are selling fast up to $39 using a credit card. Spot is about $23 so they want a $16 premium. I doesn't seem too long ago that the premium was a few bucks. Some one told me to check ebay and I see rounds like mine selling for over $40 and people are buying them. I don't get it.

Bill

More buyers than sellers. That caused the price of anything to go up. The physical market is different from the "paper' market. The is a shortage of physical supply.

 

[easyrider]

More buyers than sellers. That caused the price of anything to go up. The physical market is different from the "paper' market. The is a shortage of physical supply.

There might be a shortage of some products but I was able to place 2000 1 ounce rounds, JM Bullion Eagles to my cart as a test. I was able to place 2000 1 ounce minted Silver Eagles in the cart too for $36.22 an ounce. Spot is $23.34. I think that the $12.88 premium makes this an investment only if silver prices escalate in a significant way. The predictions I see for 2024 is maybe $38 but if you have been around you know it could go either way up or down.

Bill

 

[Carolinian]

There might be a shortage of some products but I was able to place 2000 1 ounce rounds, JM Bullion Eagles to my cart as a test. I was able to place 2000 1 ounce minted Silver Eagles in the cart too for $36.22 an ounce. Spot is $23.34. I think that the $12.88 premium makes this an investment only if silver prices escalate in a significant way. The predictions I see for 2024 is maybe $38 but if you have been around you know it could go either way up or down.

Bill

JM Bullion is one of the three companies I buy from, but I usually find them best on European gold. Yesterday, they were the only one of the three even to have bulk US silver coinage, which is what I normally buy, in stock at all, and instead of the dozens of options on that which they usually have, they only had either very small quantities of a few things ($1 face), or a huge quanitity of 35% silver war nickles, or one product, their choice of 90% silver coins. The other two major firms did not even have those things.

A couple of weeks ago, I was buying $10 face of 90% silver coins (actually from one of the other bullion dealers) for $171, and today that is $262 at JM Bullion, while the others have none in stock.

As to bullion coins, I generally don't buy them, preferring monetary coins with a low premium over spot, I would suggest you look at other options than the US eagles, which always carry the highest premium, usually followed by the Canadian Maple Leafs. Compare the Austrian Philharmonics, the British Britannias, the South African silver Krugerrands, etc. to find lower premiums.

 

[easyrider]

JM Bullion is one of the three companies I buy from, but I usually find them best on European gold. Yesterday, they were the only one of the three even to have bulk US silver coinage, which is what I normally buy, in stock at all, and instead of the dozens of options on that which they usually have, they only had either very small quantities of a few things ($1 face), or a huge quanitity of 35% silver war nickles, or one product, their choice of 90% silver coins. The other two major firms did not even have those things.

A couple of weeks ago, I was buying $10 face of 90% silver coins (actually from one of the other bullion dealers) for $171, and today that is $262 at JM Bullion, while the others have none in stock.

As to bullion coins, I generally don't buy them, preferring monetary coins with a low premium over spot, I would suggest you look at other options than the US eagles, which always carry the highest premium, usually followed by the Canadian Maple Leafs. Compare the Austrian Philharmonics, the British Britannias, the South African silver Krugerrands, etc. to find lower premiums.

Rounds are >$5 over spot @ > $28. To break even will take a huge move in silver prices. To actually make a profit on silver bought today is a guess at best. If a person bought physical silver years ago that silver has increased in value and it could be a decent long term investment. From what I personally know, many hold physical silver as a generational investment. Same thing for gold.

Bill

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Rounds are >$5 over spot @ > $28. To break even will take a huge move in silver prices. To actually make a profit on silver bought today is a guess at best. If a person bought physical silver years ago that silver has increased in value and it could be a decent long term investment. From what I personally know, many hold physical silver as a generational investment. Same thing for gold.

Bill

Easyrider, all physical property purchases are long term investment, due to those bid/ask spreads. Metals, rare art, land,, ect.

 

[easyrider]

Easyrider, all physical property purchases are long term investment, due to those bid/ask spreads. Metals, rare art, land,, ect.

It can go both ways. Flipping both property and physical silver makes sense when the price and tax load is right but even though I have flipped properties for profit, I haven't really sold any metal because ................. I really don't know. I guess I just feel better having it. Again, I don't know why.

Bill

 

[Carolinian]

Rounds are >$5 over spot @ > $28. To break even will take a huge move in silver prices. To actually make a profit on silver bought today is a guess at best. If a person bought physical silver years ago that silver has increased in value and it could be a decent long term investment. From what I personally know, many hold physical silver as a generational investment. Same thing for gold.

Bill

Do your comparison shopping. One of the bullion companies I deal with was advertising Austrian Philharmonic silver one ounce bullion coins today for $3.45 over spot.

 

[Carolinian]

Supply in US silver coinage is still almost conexistant with the bullion dealers I use, with Canadian a little better, and the premiums are high.

The 90% US silver coins I was buying at about $171 per $10 face early in March are now running $289 for $10 face if you can find any. The Canadian silver dollars I was buying at about $15 are now priced at $20, and I know of local people wanting to pay that if they can find any for sale. Mine aren't.