New Travel Development going to Maui

[ljmiii]

4 tests/hour on each analyzer. (a positive comes back quicker) As long as the plane is near empty or they buy a boatload of analyzers it could be fast enough.

Indeed. My short response is that the improvements in COVID-19 test equipment over the past six weeks have been staggering - both molecular (you have the virus) and antibody (you had the virus). I am hopeful that by October 1st Hawaii might have sufficient confidence in their testing and tracking capability to reopen for tourism.

Long response. Abbott's molecular test is a isothermal nucleic acid amplification test instead of a RT-PCR test which yields faster though thus far less accurate results. That said, the turn around time for RT-PCR test results has dropped dramatically in the past six weeks. All molecular tests suffer from having 'windows' in which a person might be contagious yet show negative.

Antibody tests (also known as Titers or Serology tests) currently vary wildly in effectiveness. It takes about 14 days for the body to produce antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 (the COVID-19 coronavirus) - first IgM antibodies and then IgG antibodies which stay around for some long period of time (how long depends on a number of factors). You want an antibody test that uses the Elisa technique and tests for both IgM and IgG. Also ideally, one that expresses the result as a number along a range and and not a simple positive/negative result. And ideally, ideally you want to administer both molecular and antibody tests simultaneously to get the most accurate answer as to whether someone is communicable.

We have no idea as of yet how effective COVID-19 antibodies are in protecting a person from the disease, how long such protection if any lasts, or how communicability is affected if at all. Antibodies for other diseases have a wide range of effectiveness - those for measles essentially grant lifetime immunity, those for SARS last a couple of years, and those for the common flu are quite limited in duration. Also and as an aside, most people in the US already carry the antibodies for around four other coronaviruses.

Lastly, I mention October 1st because US airlines have been given billions of dollars to keep flying through September 30th. Airlines have already told their personnel to expect flight reductions of 40-80% after that date. Which might allow Hawaii to open to 'limited' tourism without requiring further intervention.

 

[csodjd]

If the goal of testing is to ensure 100% elimination of any risk of an infected person arriving in Hawaii, well, you're right, the tests may not be good enough and it may not be doable. But that's also an unnecessary and unrealistic goal or bar to set, and will effectively destroy Hawaii financially. If a test is performed within 24 hours of departure to Hawaii, yes, there is a measurable, but very small, risk that the person FIRST became infected after the test and before departure. But that test will still effectively screen out ALMOST every infected person. If Hawaii respects social distancing, masks where appropriate, restaurants are spread out, etc., the risk of 4-5 people arriving is small, and the result easily contained, and probably well within the risk that exists day to day already from a multitude of contagious diseases.

 

[Dean]

If the goal of testing is to ensure 100% elimination of any risk of an infected person arriving in Hawaii, well, you're right, the tests may not be good enough and it may not be doable. But that's also an unnecessary and unrealistic goal or bar to set, and will effectively destroy Hawaii financially. If a test is performed within 24 hours of departure to Hawaii, yes, there is a measurable, but very small, risk that the person FIRST became infected after the test and before departure. But that test will still effectively screen out ALMOST every infected person. If Hawaii respects social distancing, masks where appropriate, restaurants are spread out, etc., the risk of 4-5 people arriving is small, and the result easily contained, and probably well within the risk that exists day to day already from a multitude of contagious diseases.

I can't speak for others but that wasn't my point. My point was and is that there is no test or even combination of testing that currently does what you're saying. We don't know if antibody present confers future protection or if so, at what level. Unless something has changed in the last week none of the antibody testing is FDA approved including the national labs like Quest or LabCorp. It will take time to work all those things out, likely 3-6 months or more. Ultimately I think antibody testing will help us determine who's safe going forward both for their own safety and that of others. My personal opinion is there's no combination of options that will be both safe and effective and save the economy.

 

[gln60]

If the goal of testing is to ensure 100% elimination of any risk of an infected person arriving in Hawaii, well, you're right, the tests may not be good enough and it may not be doable. But that's also an unnecessary and unrealistic goal or bar to set, and will effectively destroy Hawaii financially. If a test is performed within 24 hours of departure to Hawaii, yes, there is a measurable, but very small, risk that the person FIRST became infected after the test and before departure. But that test will still effectively screen out ALMOST every infected person. If Hawaii respects social distancing, masks where appropriate, restaurants are spread out, etc., the risk of 4-5 people arriving is small, and the result easily contained, and probably well within the risk that exists day to day already from a multitude of contagious diseases.

I suspect that the governor of Hawaii is not interested in social distancing....masks where appropriate or any other guidelines that make SENSE to at least get the states economy up and running......as of right now he is looking a solution that wont be happening anytime soon,at the EXPENSE of Hawaii's Citizens

 

[lynne]

I suspect that the governor of Hawaii is not interested in social distancing....masks where appropriate or any other guidelines that make SENSE to at least get the states economy up and running......as of right now he is looking a solution that wont be happening anytime soon,at the EXPENSE of Hawaii's Citizens

Unless you live here where medical resources are scarce, you do not have the right to complain about what our governor is doing to protect the health and well being of the residents. I am sorry, but I do not hear comments about the rules that governors of other states are doing for their citizens, only Hawaii because there it is a very popular tourist destination. The people who live here full time will get by. Yes, it is a hardship but until we can open the state to the people who live here full time, we cannot expect to have it overrun with visitors who feel privileged and come over to break quarantine and ruin it for everyone else.

 

[gln60]

Unless you live here where medical resources are scarce, you do not have the right to complain about what our governor is doing to protect the health and well being of the residents. I am sorry, but I do not hear comments about the rules that governors of other states are doing for their citizens, only Hawaii because there it is a very popular tourist destination. The people who live here full time will get by. Yes, it is a hardship but until we can open the state to the people who live here full time, we cannot expect to have it overrun with visitors who feel privileged and come over to break quarantine and ruin it for everyone else.

I respect your opinion and your right to voice it...and feel “privileged“to be a citizen of our great country....BTW..Im not complaining just stating my opinion..been to beautiful Hawaii a few times and really enjoyed it but have no desire to return

 

[Fasttr]

....we cannot expect to have it overrun with visitors who feel privileged and come over to break quarantine and ruin it for everyone else.

Wow....generalize much??

 

[csodjd]

Unless you live here where medical resources are scarce, you do not have the right to complain about what our governor is doing to protect the health and well being of the residents.

I don't live there, much to the dismay of my wife, but I think your Governor is on the right track, though perhaps a bit more conservative than necessary with the residents at this point. Your number of new cases is now so small and staying that way that he can probably let you start coming out more and let your local economies start ticking again because they can test and trace when it is only a few cases statewide. Tourists are a much harder proposition. But the economic impact on your state cannot be addressed with local business alone. Even if they can only bring back 30-50%, that would make a big difference by getting hotels and hotel staffs back to work, along with all the very small businesses that depend on tourists. So I hope and assume he's working on how they can make that happen as the summer progresses.

That all said, it probably doesn't help when CDC reportedly says that they expect the daily number of new cases and deaths to increase 8-10x in the next month or two. If I were the governor and saw that, I'd hold firm on the tourism for a while and concentrate on residents.

Edit: The new forecast from Univ. of Washington predicts 0 new cases of COVID in Hawaii after May. Basically, they predict Hawaii will be COVID-free starting June 1.

 

[lynne]

Wow....generalize much??

My apologies, but we have had so few visitors and each island has had issues with a number of them breaking quarantine rules where if they stayed in place as directed, there would not be the need to send law enforcement after them and put them on planes back home. If this issue happens with the few visitors that have been coming here, imagine what will happen with a plane full of folks who do not want to abide by the rules.

HTA: 800+ people arrived to the state on Saturday

While 823 is a stark difference compared to the nearly 30,000 passengers arriving at this same time last year, it appears to show a steady trend -- the number of visitors is picking back up.

www.kitv.com

"On Friday, 223 visitors arrived - the largest amount since the mandatory quarantine began. We're told it's because those who booked trips before the lockdown got extended another month, are now refusing to cancel.

"We gently request from them to come at another time and change their plans but some of them told us outright that they don't want to do it, that they don't want to change their plans," said Jessica Lani Rich, of the Visitor Aloha Society of Hawaii.

In Waikiki Sunday, residents tell KITV4 they're beginning to notice more visitors hanging around the area."

 

[ljmiii]

"On Friday, 223 visitors arrived - the largest amount since the mandatory quarantine began. We're told it's because those who booked trips before the lockdown got extended another month, are now refusing to cancel."

On a personal note and as a sad aside, I cancelled our stay in Waiohai today (just over 61 days). I expect our reservation at HHV will follow in about a month. Unless we find a will and a way to visit Hawaii for all of six days over Xmas/New Years it will be the first time we've been away from the islands for more than a year in over 20 years (my wife went to UH Manoa and we had family and still have many friends on O'ahu).

I wish you and all other Hawaiians the best and honestly envy you the opportunity you have been given. Aloha and Mahalo.

 

[Steve A]

Unless you live here where medical resources are scarce, you do not have the right to complain about what our governor is doing to protect the health and well being of the residents. I am sorry, but I do not hear comments about the rules that governors of other states are doing for their citizens, only Hawaii because there it is a very popular tourist destination. The people who live here full time will get by. Yes, it is a hardship but until we can open the state to the people who live here full time, we cannot expect to have it overrun with visitors who feel privileged and come over to break quarantine and ruin it for everyone else.

As a full time resident of Hilton Head and in my late 70s, I’m with Lynne. I witnessed many tourists here on HHI walking around barricades to get to the beach or riding through the closed parks. No masks in the markets. Large groups on the beach.

 

[alohakevin]

Unless you live here where medical resources are scarce, you do not have the right to complain about what our governor is doing to protect the health and well being of the residents. I am sorry, but I do not hear comments about the rules that governors of other states are doing for their citizens, only Hawaii because there it is a very popular tourist destination. The people who live here full time will get by. Yes, it is a hardship but until we can open the state to the people who live here full time, we cannot expect to have it overrun with visitors who feel privileged and come over to break quarantine and ruin it for everyone else.

Last I knew this was the United States of America. First amendment anyone? There is always the “ right” to dialogue.

 

[lynne]

Last I knew this was the United States of America. First amendment anyone? There is always the “ right” to dialogue.

You are correct that everyone has the right to their opinion, but it is exceedingly frustrating that everyone on this board is complaining that Hawaii is requesting visitors stay home while there is complete silence on any of the other states that are doing the same. How many complaints have there been when other states have closed their timeshares compared to what is happening when it is taking place in Hawaii?

I apologize that I offended anyone but this is serious for our state. The state cannot be successful in bringing tourism back until they can open the state to the residents first and determine that the medical facilities can handle any spikes in infections.

 

[alohakevin]

Ige Backs Off His Suspension Of State Open Government Laws

In a new proclamation, the governor asks agencies to do their best when it comes to providing public access to public meetings and records.

www.civilbeat.org

 

[gln60]

You are correct that everyone has the right to their opinion, but it is exceedingly frustrating that everyone on this board is complaining that Hawaii is requesting visitors stay home while there is complete silence on any of the other states that are doing the same. How many complaints have there been when other states have closed their timeshares compared to what is happening when it is taking place in Hawaii?

I apologize that I offended anyone but this is serious for our state. The state cannot be successful in bringing tourism back until they can open the state to the residents first and determine that the medical facilities can handle any spikes in infections.

Everyone is frustrated....not just you

 

[vacationtime1]

Last I knew this was the United States of America. First amendment anyone? There is always the “ right” to dialogue.

During World War II, coastal cities in the US were put under blackout so they would not be visible/obvious to German/Japanese bombers at night.

I wonder how people would have reacted had certain people insisted on keeping their lights on brightly at night to proclaim their First Amendment rights -- threatening the safety of everyone by doing so.

Our forbearers understood that with rights come responsibilities.

 

[gln60]

During World War II, coastal cities in the US were put under blackout so they would not be visible/obvious to German/Japanese bombers at night.

I wonder how people would have reacted had certain people insisted on keeping their lights on brightly at night to proclaim their First Amendment rights -- threatening the safety of everyone by doing so.

Our forbearers understood that with rights come responsibilities.

Agreed...unfortunately this pandemic has become EXTREMELY POLITICAL for OBVIOUS reasons..Lots of mis information the last 4 years by the MSM...no discussion..its their WAY or the HIGHWAY...again for Obvious reasons

 

[Steve Fatula]

I have my "side", and it's not the MSM (as you say) side for sure. However, that doesn't mean I have to play political. I can have a reasoned point of view despite that. It's very easy to get into that mindset of political, but the virus doesn't care. For the most part, I understand those who want to open up as I am one of them. It has cost me a lot health wise sitting at home not having surgery, some of the restrictions were not well thought out, and some actually killed more people. I see so many people out of work around me. At the same time, I of course understand the health issue. To be good to others, I wear a mask, don't really care if it protects me or not quite honestly. The governor of Hawaii has asked us to not go there, so I won't even if I might otherwise. I understand they don't have the most hospital beds to be charitable.

It's a huge tradeoff. You can't win either way. If you open things up and 1 extra person can be claimed to have died, you upset one group of people. After all, a governor said yesterday human life is invaluable, priceless which should mean never open up if that were truly his #1 priority. But then he said he was pondering the best way to open up. Which can't be, since human life as he said was by far the most important thing. I get it though, both are true. But at some point, we have to admit to ourselves that some extra will die when we open up. And therefore, it isn't priceless even though we would never say that. That's the cold hard facts of the situation. There will be a point where we open up despite costs of life. It's a matter of where is that line. I wouldn't want to be a governor right now. There are arguments for and against. Both are right in my view.

 

[gln60]

Agreed.....all I’m saying is that the MSM makes everything about politics..and its been that way for the last 4 years..difference of opinions is what this country was founded on...dialogue and debate on differences is the only way to come to a rational decision.....knowingly lying to the American people day after day..month after month and year after year to achieve political gain(power) at all cost is dangerous to our country...they know who they are and quite frankly...they Don’t Care.....That’s the sad part..sorry to ramble

 

[ljmiii]

It will be interesting to see what happens economically in Hawaii (and Australia and a few other countries) when in a few weeks the disease is more or less eradicated. When everyone can just go out and shop, eat at restaurants, etc. Yes, they will be wearing masks but so what...much of Asia did the same after SARS.

 

[lynne]

Everyone is frustrated....not just you

Aloha gln60 - I don't think you really understood my post. My frustration comes from the Hawaii-centric complaints that our governor is requesting no visitors and requiring those who continue to come here, quarantine for 14 days. I don't hear these same complaints when the other governors are attempting to keep their states safe. Mike DeWine of Ohio is a great example of doing the right thing.

 

[rickandcindy23]

Right thing, wrong thing. It's not like anyone really knows much about the pandemic and if it is going to spread like wildfire and kill as many people as originally projected. I think the governors and the rest of the country are just praying that they are doing the right thing. No matter what state it is.

There will be a cost to this shutdown of our country, and the cost will be lives, but many won't die of this virus. Some won't lose their lives but will lose their livelihoods. I am sorry for those who will lose businesses, jobs, and even their homes. The economic devastation will be brutal. And that is not political at all. People are filing for unemployment in our country.

We are retired but have a lot of MF's to pay, so I am going to be trying to get out of some of those. I have sold one unit and hope to sell some others. It's just important to me. Next year, there will be a lot of MF increases because people won't be able to afford theirs, and that will cost us all.

 

[gln60]

Aloha gln60 - I don't think you really understood my post. My frustration comes from the Hawaii-centric complaints that our governor is requesting no visitors and requiring those who continue to come here, quarantine for 14 days. I don't hear these same complaints when the other governors are attempting to keep their states safe. Mike DeWine of Ohio is a great example of doing the right thing.

I can understand your point.....No doubt that Hawaii is an awesome vacation spot and I think most of the complaints stem from travelers who are frustrated and terribly disappointed by the fact that Hawaaii travel from the mainland requires lots of planning....especially if travelers dont live on the west coast...i believe that once the travelers Hawaii Vacation week has passed its not that easy to reschedule that type of trip...getting an open date for the resort and availability when you can travel..it becomes complicated....most likely most people will have to wait till next year......its frustrating as heck...im sure that the governor of Hawaii is looking out whats best not only for his citizens...but also for guests...now,that being said im not sure i would make that statement for a group of governors on the mainland.....in any event..thanks for the reply.

 

[csodjd]

It's a huge tradeoff. You can't win either way. If you open things up and 1 extra person can be claimed to have died, you upset one group of people. After all, a governor said yesterday human life is invaluable, priceless which should mean never open up if that were truly his #1 priority. But then he said he was pondering the best way to open up. Which can't be, since human life as he said was by far the most important thing. I get it though, both are true. But at some point, we have to admit to ourselves that some extra will die when we open up. And therefore, it isn't priceless even though we would never say that. That's the cold hard facts of the situation. There will be a point where we open up despite costs of life. It's a matter of where is that line. I wouldn't want to be a governor right now. There are arguments for and against. Both are right in my view.

If they, or anywhere, opens up, some will die in car accidents coming and going that would not have otherwise died. So it can never be just about doing everything possible to ensure nobody ever dies. To me, this is more about managing a contagious disease. The economy should not control that, it's the other way around. Whatever occurs in/to the economy results from whatever is necessary to manage the disease. That, in turn, depends on the characteristics of the disease itself. This is easy to demonstrate. Assume this exact same virus/disease was 100% fatal - if you get it, you die, at least until a treatment is found. Would that change the view on whether "extreme" measures and business shut downs are necessary? Now assume it is NEVER fatal, and almost never requires admission to a hospital. Would THAT change the view on what measures are necessary?

I hope people see from the examples that it becomes self-evident that it is the disease that controls the steps we take and their impact on the economy, not the other way around.

If that is understood, then we realize reasonable minds may differ, but until there is DATA the only option is to choose between erring on the side of caution or on the side of risk in terms of managing the disease. In this virus almost nothing was known of its fatality rate or clinical manifestations initially. Government sided on caution. Some with more caution than others. What I find so frustrating is that smart people, people that run public health for the Country, put out a plan to find that line between caution and risk, to open up as fast as possible while causing as little harm as possible. And so many are just saying, no. We prefer more risk, and they attack those that want to trust the experts and follow the path they laid out as if that is "wrong" and they are "right."

 

[Steve Fatula]

If they, or anywhere, opens up, some will die in car accidents coming and going that would not have otherwise died. So it can never be just about doing everything possible to ensure nobody ever dies. To me, this is more about managing a contagious disease. The economy should not control that, it's the other way around. Whatever occurs in/to the economy results from whatever is necessary to manage the disease. That, in turn, depends on the characteristics of the disease itself. This is easy to demonstrate. Assume this exact same virus/disease was 100% fatal - if you get it, you die, at least until a treatment is found. Would that change the view on whether "extreme" measures and business shut downs are necessary? Now assume it is NEVER fatal, and almost never requires admission to a hospital. Would THAT change the view on what measures are necessary?

Sure, however, the opposite is also true. If we were only about saving lives and letting the disease dictate things, then, let's assume we send everyone home after all the only thing that matters is saving lives. What will happen? 100% death rate.

Also, using your logic, I am going to use that dreaded flu argument (no I am not nor have ever said it's the same thing), since people do die from the flu, should we close the economy every winter? After all, it's lives that matter.

A balance is what is needed. To destroy the economy and forget what it was like during the great depression (you do NOT want to go to that), is not a good thing either. There will be starvation, it's coming on the current path. The reality is this virus is not 100% fatal. It's likely way under 1% fatal when the final numbers come out.

I do agree with you there are steps needing to be taken to help control the virus. Never said there wasn't. To suggest though that lockdowns should continue for years (assuming it takes that long for a vaccine, which we may never get actually), is not wise in my view. The state with the most cases just stated that recently, over 60% of all new cases were coming from stay at home people. That's a fact. Not sure it is accomplishing what it was meant to do. No one can indefinitely stay at home, just not possible. They will be exposed. The difference is only in the timing, they are either exposed sooner, or later. The outcome will likely be the same, except, in the case we get an early cure/vaccine.

If you wish to discuss further, please DM me.

But this thread is about Hawaii. For me, I will honor and respect whatever the state of Hawaii decides.