A Mysterious Virus in Central China Has Infected Dozens, Raising Fears of a New Epidemic. Here's What to Know

[jpc763]

Article in LA Times today says that Mexican upper classes who ski in Vail every year took CV home with them. Something like half (11/22 or so) of the cases in one particular area trace back to ski vacationers.

Eagle County in Colorado (which is home to Vail and Beaver Creek ski resorts) is deemed a state "Hot Spot". It is one of the most affected counties in the state, second only to Denver County. Eagle County has 55000 residents while Denver County has 620000 residents. Here is an article about it.

An Unexpected COVID-19 Hotspot Emerges In The Colorado Rockies

It was 2 a.m. on Sunday, March 8th and Bill Brueck couldn’t sleep. The 45-year-old father of two, from the snowy town of Minturn, Colorado, had a cough, body aches, chest congestion and a fever.

talkingpointsmemo.com

 

["Roger"]

The boldface below is the title of an animated article in the Washington Post. I made the boldface into a clickable link. Unfortunately, I think there will be a firewall that will prevent the link from working. If you do have access to the Washington Post, I highly recommend this piece. (The NY Times has dropped its firewall to all articles on the coronavirus, so there is a outside chance that the link will work for everybody if the Washington Post followed suit.)

Why outbreaks like coronavirus
spread exponentially, and
how to “flatten the curve”

 

[Panina]

The boldface below is the title of an animated article in the Washington Post. I made the boldface into a clickable link. Unfortunately, I think there will be a firewall that will prevent the link from working. If you do have access to the Washington Post, I highly recommend this piece. (The NY Times has dropped its firewall to all articles on the coronavirus, so there is a outside chance that the link will work for everybody if the Washington Post followed suit.)

Why outbreaks like coronavirus
spread exponentially, and
how to “flatten the curve”

There is no firewall. It is the best visualization to understand why we are being told to stay home.

 

[CO skier]

Anyone who understands exponential curves know the difference is made in the early part of the curve -- save $10,000 and put it to work in your early 20s makes a huge difference versus putting $10,000 to work in your late 50s, early 60s.

With regard to Covid-19, we are at the "60s" in the exponential curve -- way too late to make a significant difference in the outcome. Shutdowns 6-8 weeks ago might have "flattened the curve" "somewhat" (still most definitely not worth the cost in economic damage); shutdowns now does little to affect the ultimate infection and death rate curves (but it makes good politics) and destroys the economy for no good reason in the process.

Politicians are realizing their folly; they kept the Canadian and Mexico borders open for trade. Too little, too late.

 

[Ken555]

Anyone who understands exponential curves know the difference is made in the early part of the curve -- save $10,000 and put it to work in your early 20s makes a huge difference versus putting $10,000 to work in your late 50s, early 60s.

With regard to Covid-19, we are at the "60s" in the exponential curve -- way too late to make a significant difference in the outcome. Shutdowns 6-8 weeks ago might have "flattened the curve" "somewhat" (still most definitely not worth the cost in economic damage); shutdowns now does little to affect the ultimate infection and death rate curves (but it makes good politics) and destroys the economy for no good reason in the process.

Politicians are realizing their folly; they kept the Canadian and Mexico borders open for trade. Too little, too late.

Please. Let’s not discuss this particular aspect of what might have been until this is all over. This is just too raw right now.


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[CO skier]

Please. Let’s not discuss this particular aspect of what might have been until this is all over. This is just too raw right now.

This is not a "what might have been." This is real time, and if sensible people do not realize the die has been cast regarding the outcome of Covid-19 and pressure politicians to reopen the economy while there is a sliver of a chance, we are doubly doomed -- medically and economically.

 

[Conan]

How The Virus Got Out
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive...irus-spread.html?referringSource=articleShare

In New York Times interactive style.

 

[Ken555]

Chancellor Merkel’s address to Germany, with English subtitles. Worth watching.

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[mpizza]

Thank you for sharing!

Maria

 

[caribbeanqueen]

I believe my husband and I both had Covid19 back in early January. At the time we had no idea of course. We came back from our Christmas Princess Cruise on a Sunday, the 28th and flew home the 29th which was a Monday. Wednesday I started with a headache that became fierce and strong by Friday. By Sunday I had fever, body aches, chills, dry cough and a bad sinus infection. My husband started with upper respiratory symptoms with wheezing and rattling. I ended up in the ER by Monday morning feeling awful and they thought for sure I had the flu. Negative flu and strep test. I was given a steroid for the horrible sinus infection and amoxycillan for the virus. It lasted 6 weeks. My friend who was on the same cruise came down with bad bronchitis and a sinus infection.
I spoke with an ER doctor I am friendly with (I worked at the community hospital till last year when I retired due to having to visit my elderly parents so often) about our symptoms back in January. He believes I did have it and says he saw a big rise in patients coming in with flu like symptoms but tested negative for flu and bronchitis with symptoms lasting much longer and medications not reducing the illness in the usual timely fashion. Both he and a cardiologist I know believe this virus has been here much longer than people realize. This started in September in China but they kept it quiet until it spread so much they could no longer contain the information coming out. The doctor said think of all the people who flew in and out of China for over 4 months not knowing this disease was spreading over there.

Thankfully the FDA has just approved the use of the combination of the Malaria drug and Zpac together to fight this, especially with patients who become critical. This will make a huge difference.
Sadly not everyone is practicing social distancing so this will continue to spread for months, not weeks until people smarten up.

Our state is saying they will run out of money in weeks. This will be catastrophic to states, towns, businesses all across the globe. I do not know how the governments will be able to help everyone.
Thank you to everyone posting articles, very informative. Stay safe and stay healthy!

 

[Ken555]

This is yet another good example of why social distancing helps.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Covid-19-Transmission-graphic-01.gif

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[b2bailey]

This is yet another good example of why social distancing helps.

https://thespino/uploads/2020/03/Covid-19-Transmission-graphic-01.gif

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Best illustration I have seen this far.

 

[b2bailey]

The boldface below is the title of an animated article in the Washington Post. I made the boldface into a clickable link. Unfortunately, I think there will be a firewall that will prevent the link from working. If you do have access to the Washington Post, I highly recommend this piece. (The NY Times has dropped its firewall to all articles on the coronavirus, so there is a outside chance that the link will work for everybody if the Washington Post followed suit.)

Why outbreaks like coronavirus
spread exponentially, and
how to “flatten the curve”

Did people miss the part that said "moderate social distancing will outperform attempts at quarantine?"

 

[Ken555]

Best illustration I have seen this far.

Yes, I agree. I also think it’s important to stress that even though it’s already here, social distancing will prevent it from infecting more of us at once. Just because we didn’t act early enough (though we could have... yet another discussion for another time) doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do our best to slow the spread now. Lives over money. Let the scientists have the time they need to create a worthwhile treatment and hopefully a vaccine. Until then, I’m staying home.


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[Ken555]

This is another good simple presentation on the virus and why just washing your hands helps.

GIFNG

Best GIFs from around the web

www.gifng.com

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[Ken555]

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[CPNY]

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Amazing. I sat to eat tonight and prayed thanking God for everything I am blessed with during this time.

 

[JanT]

I think we all need to just be thankful for our blessings right now. I'm trying to focus on that in the brief moments when I become frustrated that we're not going to be able to sell our house this year and travel as we'd planned. In the scheme of things that's just a minor blip in our lives. So, I am grateful for our tremendous blessings and I spend a lot of time in prayer asking God to protect my daughter who got H1N1 in 2011 and almost died from it. I just want her to remain healthy. I'll give up whatever I have to for that.

Amazing. I sat to eat tonight and prayed thanking God for everything I am blessed with during this time.

 

[CPNY]

I think we all need to just be thankful for our blessings right now. I'm trying to focus on that in the brief moments when I become frustrated that we're not going to be able to sell our house this year and travel as we'd planned. In the scheme of things that's just a minor blip in our lives. So, I am grateful for our tremendous blessings and I spend a lot of time in prayer asking God to protect my daughter who got H1N1 in 2011 and almost died from it. I just want her to remain healthy. I'll give up whatever I have to for that.

Very true. I had a free Europe trip, a music festival that is impossible to get tickets for and a wedding in Italy. I’m not complaining one bit. I’m focused on not watching people pass from this virus. I want to emerge quickly. We cannot afford to be shut down for months so we have to do our part to make sure we don’t let this get out of hand

 

[pedro47]

IMHO, the Governor of New York , just gave the best speech on the Coronavirus, He gave his plans, objectives, missions and the State of New York missions to curtail this Coronavirus.

He did not involved the word ”I” in his speech.

We must do social distances and still her spiritual love.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

Very true. I had a free Europe trip, a music festival that is impossible to get tickets for and a wedding in Italy. I’m not complaining one bit. I’m focused on not watching people pass from this virus. I want to emerge quickly. We cannot afford to be shut down for months so we have to do our part to make sure we don’t let this get out of hand

I'm on kind of a mission to clear up a common misconception. "Flattening the curve" means prolonging the epidemic. The fastest way through the pandemic is to take no precautions whatsoever, even to encourage people to intermingle, so the virus spreads as quickly as possible and runs it's course through the population as quickly as possible. That leads to the fastest way of having a population on earth that is immune and resistant to the virus. That is also the course that results in the most deaths. Essentially, it's the Spanish flue redux, because during that pandemic there weren't control options.

If we can't afford to be shut down for months, then we are on the wrong course.

 

[b2bailey]

I'm on kind of a mission to clear up a common misconception. "Flattening the curve" means prolonging the epidemic. The fastest way through the pandemic is to take no precautions whatsoever, even to encourage people to intermingle, so the virus spreads as quickly as possible and runs it's course through the population as quickly as possible. That leads to the fastest way of having a population on earth that is immune and resistant to the virus. That is also the course that results in the most deaths. Essentially, it's the Spanish flue redux, because during that pandemic there weren't control options.

If we can't afford to be shut down for months, then we are on the wrong course.

There is a small part of me that agrees with you. Just watched an interview (on major network) of post middle age woman artist. Her sole source of income is the sale of goods at art shows, festivals, etc. All have been cancelled. She cannot collect unemployment, her name will not be on the list to receive a $1,000 magic check. What is she to do?

 

[CPNY]

I'm on kind of a mission to clear up a common misconception. "Flattening the curve" means prolonging the epidemic. The fastest way through the pandemic is to take no precautions whatsoever, even to encourage people to intermingle, so the virus spreads as quickly as possible and runs it's course through the population as quickly as possible. That leads to the fastest way of having a population on earth that is immune and resistant to the virus. That is also the course that results in the most deaths. Essentially, it's the Spanish flue redux, because during that pandemic there weren't control options.

If we can't afford to be shut down for months, then we are on the wrong course.

Or we can prolong it to less severe cases, and fee space in our health systems it will result in less death. Swine flu was around a very long time but we didn’t hear about it. The world didn’t stop. I think I’m already positive for it anyway.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

Or we can prolong it to less severe cases, and fee space in our health systems it will result in less death. Swine flu was around a very long time but we didn’t hear about it. The world didn’t stop. I think I’m already positive for it anyway.

That's what flattening the curve is about. It is prolonging the epidemic to be able to provide more health care to the most severely affected, and also possibly develop and deploy countermeasures before everyone is exposed. But that absolutely comes with a cost - the cost being prolonged shutdown. And I wonder about the ability of governments to actually be able to make all of the financial commitments that are being made. Where is the money going to come from if the economy is shut down and taxes aren't being paid. Who is going to buy government debt if there isn't confidence in the ability of the government to repay that debt?

 

[moonstone]

We left Belize on Saturday and there were no confirmed cases. The first positive test came back today. A woman in her 30s who flew in from California last Thursday. I guess she doesn't know what 'shelter in place' means! We talked to quite a few expats who were going to ride it out in Belize thinking it would be safe there. Now the Belizean officials are tracking down everybody who sat near her on the small plane from the airport to San Pedro and then was near her at her hotel.

-Diane