A Mysterious Virus in Central China Has Infected Dozens, Raising Fears of a New Epidemic. Here's What to Know

[Ken555]

From my FB feed this morning:

Please check my math and assumptions. On average it takes 18 days from Covid19 detection to death. This morning there were 473 deaths attributed to C19. Assuming 3.5% death rate, that implies that on March 4 there were around 13,500 cases. However, on March 4 it was reported USA had 138 confirmed. In round numbers that is a 100x delta between estimate and reality. Using the current confirmed case count of 41,000 that implies an actual case count of 4.1 Million.

STAY HOME

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[Ken555]

This article is very informative re food safety. I’ve read some of this info separately but this puts it all in one place:

Food Safety and Coronavirus: A Comprehensive Guide

Questions about COVID-19 and food safety, answered.

www.seriouseats.com

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[MULTIZ321]

FDA approves rapid coronavirus test that gives
results in 45 minutes.

FDA approves rapid coronavirus test that gives results in 45 minutes

It goes without saying that coronavirus testing is one of the key weapons for fighting the COVID-19 outbreak, and the FDA just approved a quick …

bgr.com

Richard

 

[WVBaker]

From my FB feed this morning:

What would be the source for these figures?

According to the latest numbers, the total confirmed cases in the U.S. is 40,961 with 485 total deaths, which brings the percentage to 1.8%, not 3.5%.

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

 

["Roger"]

I'm on kind of a mission to clear up a common misconception. "Flattening the curve" means prolonging the epidemic. The fastest way through the pandemic is to take no precautions whatsoever, even to encourage people to intermingle, so the virus spreads as quickly as possible and runs it's course through the population as quickly as possible. That leads to the fastest way of having a population on earth that is immune and resistant to the virus. That is also the course that results in the most deaths. Essentially, it's the Spanish flue redux, because during that pandemic there weren't control options.

If we can't afford to be shut down for months, then we are on the wrong course.

Even if you wanted to ignore the virus and take the hit, you might get a partial return to normalcy, but not a total return. Even before any state restrictions, TUGGERS were saying "I'm not going on a cruise." "I am not flying." Restaurant business was already way down before the mandatory restrictions. Etc. Etc. Etc. Even without any lockdowns or whatever, there would still be lots of layoffs and damage to the economy.

We (the United States) have been way behind on having testing available (no comment). I would think that the best hope for a partial return to normalcy would be to follow the South Korean and Japanese models of massive testing with quarantines for those testing positive. This does not stop the virus, but has helped slow it down in countries that were hard hit early. This would allow for at least some return to normalcy earlier.

PS - Sporting events - no go. Even if leagues were to hold games in empty stadiums just for TV coverage, what happens when a reserve team member of the Seattle Seahawks (hitting below the belt) tests positive? The team goes on a two week self quarantine. Kind of screws up the season schedule.

 

[Ken555]

What would be the source for these figures?

According to the latest numbers, the total confirmed cases in the U.S. is 40,961 with 485 total deaths, which brings the percentage to 1.8%, not 3.5%.

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

www.arcgis.com

Yes, but sadly that's not the way to calculate the result.

Death rate is really only accurate way after the fact. In real time we need to consider the ratio of New Cases 18 days prior to today relative to the dead count today,. In china they determined a 3.4% overall death rate in the hardest hit areas overall I believe.

 

[WVBaker]

Yes, but sadly that's not the way to calculate the result.

And once again, your source?

 

[Ken555]

And once again, your source?

Run the numbers yourself. This is objective and public info. I obtained this from a friend who is updating his own calculations based on public info.

Simply use the death totals from today and the number of cases from 18 days ago. Obviously, this is a rather fluid calculation as numbers and averages are changing. Of course, we can't be certain of the exact China numbers yet (there are a number of conflicting reports). But, simply dividing the total number of deaths and cases of "today" is not accurate due to the incubation period (and even that period is rapidly changing as the reports are now coming in from more sources).

 

[WVBaker]

I would prefer to base my numbers on facts without manipulation to reach a conclusion. But hey, thanks for the opinion.

 

[Ken555]

I would prefer to base my numbers on facts without manipulation to reach a conclusion. But hey, thanks for the opinion.

1. find the death numbers from today.
2. determine the average incubation period (based on the info my friend had, all public, it was 18 days but this is changing rapidly)
3. look up the number of cases from x days ago (x = average incubation period)
4. divide death total from today by x

There's nothing secret or manipulative here.

On the flip side, perhaps you should try defending your claim that simply dividing today's death total by today's number of cases is accurate. Good luck with that.

 

[MULTIZ321]

FDA approves rapid coronavirus test that gives
results in 45 minutes.

FDA approves rapid coronavirus test that gives results in 45 minutes

It goes without saying that coronavirus testing is one of the key weapons for fighting the COVID-19 outbreak, and the FDA just approved a quick …

bgr.com

Richard

Newly approved novel coronavirus test gives
results in 45 minutes

Newly approved novel coronavirus test gives results in 45 minutes

It’s only for hospitals

www.theverge.com

.


Richard

 

[GetawaysRus]

A bit confusing, but the author appears to say that this change in policy is a good thing.

Gilead revises access to remdesivir for COVID-19 amid surge in demand

Gilead Sciences said it cannot accept new compassionate use requests for its investigational antiviral remdesivir due to “overwhelming demand” from physicians hoping to repurpose the drug as a potential therapy for patients with COVID-19, but there are still ways to get access to the medication...

www.healio.com

 

[MULTIZ321]

Is The Math Too Hard For People To Understand COVID-19 Coronavirus?

Is The Math Too Hard For People To Understand COVID-19 Coronavirus?

Is some of the skepticism about COVID-19 Coronavirus because the math is too hard?

www.forbes.com

.


Richard

 

[CO skier]

Is The Math Too Hard For People To Understand COVID-19 Coronavirus?

To my mind, world leaders, and state governors especially, do not understand exponential curves (it is waaaaay too late on the Covid-19 exponential infection curves for a "15-day program" or "stay-at-homes" to have much effect versus just letting the virus run its course in a functioning, socially-distanced economy. There is no stopping the virus from running its course at this point in time).

And they must have missed the history course on the Great Depression, because that is what the current shutdowns are engineering.

We are in uncharted waters, economically speaking. To think the economy will quickly "bounce back" (let alone "better than ever") even with trillion dollar handouts that put only $3,000-4,000, or so, in the hands of consumers and small businesses is Fantasy Island thinking.

"Once the fantasy begins, you must see it through."

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

Though I have significant differences from Governor Inslee in Washington, I do respect how he has been listening to and taking advice from technical people. The measures that he has introduced have seemed to me to practical in rational response to the issues involved.

We'll see how it plays out. But it seems to me that he has rolled out measures as needed (if anything, a bit too slowly but he was still ahead of most of the rest of the US), while also steering clear of overreacting (maintaining social distancing instead of going into full self-quarantine mode).

 

[Ken555]

This is the best explanation I’ve seen yet on why social distancing is so important. Please watch.


‘This Is The Only Way Forward. This Virus Is Unforgiving’: Epidemiologist Backs Order To Stay Home During Coronavirus Outbreak

'This Is The Only Way Forward. This Virus Is Unforgiving': Epidemiologist Backs Order To Stay Home During Coronavirus Outbreak

"This is the only way forward," said Dr. Emily Landon, lead epidemiologist at University of Chicago Medicine. "This virus is unforgiving. It spreads before you even know you've caught it, and it tricks you into believing that it's nothing more than a little influenza."

chicago.cbslocal.com

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[CO skier]

We'll see how it plays out.

Look at how it is playing out in New York City. At today's Coronavirus Task Force Team briefing, it was mentioned that Covid-19 must have been circulating throughout that community for at least 6 weeks. It will be 4 weeks, at least, before the mitigation effects of the recent lockdown have any noticeable effect on the exponential infection curve. The infection curve may peak and decline in the meantime as a result of the natural progression of the disease. Which would mean the lockdown had little effect on the ultimate outcome of total infections and casualties, but catastrophic effects on the economy.

 

[CPNY]

A bit confusing, but the author appears to say that this change in policy is a good thing.

Gilead revises access to remdesivir for COVID-19 amid surge in demand

Gilead Sciences said it cannot accept new compassionate use requests for its investigational antiviral remdesivir due to “overwhelming demand” from physicians hoping to repurpose the drug as a potential therapy for patients with COVID-19, but there are still ways to get access to the medication...

www.healio.com

I assume it’s what we are seeing currently with Hydro-Chloroquine. Everyone from nurse practitioners, Doctors, to Dentists are ordering large quantities or at least trying to order the Malaria drug for what ifs for them or their family and friends. Once again, the human race being extremely selfish and hoarding medications for what ifs that may never come. They will sit on the medication and it will expire with no need for it. Rather than allow health systems to stock pile the drug IF it is actually working so they can give it to the appropriate patients. so what I’m reading with this article is the company is suspending Dr. X from applying for the drug for compassionate use.....basically trying for patients that may get better in their own. So to eliminate the any issues with supply issues, they are holding back for most at risk patients: pregnant women, children under 18 and critically ill patients.

in short, Gilead is not letting everyone come in and frantically buy up all the toilet paper. They are holding it back for the little old lady who’s standing there outside the crowd with nothing in her hand.

 

[CPNY]

Look at how it is playing out in New York City. At today's Coronavirus Task Force Team briefing, it was mentioned that Covid-19 must have been circulating throughout that community for at least 6 weeks. It will be 4 weeks, at least, before the mitigation effects of the recent lockdown have any noticeable effect on the exponential infection curve. The infection curve may peak and decline in the meantime as a result of the natural progression of the disease. Which would mean the lockdown had little effect on the ultimate outcome of total infections and casualties, but catastrophic effects on the economy.

AT LEAST!! I had symptoms begin Feb 28th and still having chest pain, cough and breathing issues (just happened this passed week) all symptoms in the first week and a half then cough, then this past week and a half of breathing difficulties. This thing can last a while!

 

[CPNY]

Oh wow! I fear this isn’t going anywhere for a long time! It will be spread and passed around for a long time. Scary. 17 days

CDC says coronavirus RNA found in Princess Cruise ship cabins up to 17 days after passengers left

Traces of the coronavirus were found up to 17 days after passengers disembarked the Diamond Princess cruise ship, surviving far longer on surfaces than previous research has shown, according to new data published Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

www.cnbc.com

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

AT LEAST!! I had symptoms begin Feb 28th and still having chest pain, cough and breathing issues (just happened this passed week) all symptoms in the first week and a half then cough, then this past week and a half of breathing difficulties. This thing can last a while!

If you like historic precedent,, it strikes me that this is similar to the Spanish flu pandemic, but not quite as lethal. The Spanish flue killed about 3% of the world population, and COVID-19 doesn't seems about one order of magnitude less lethal.

 

[CO skier]

If you like historic precedent,, it strikes me that this is similar to the Spanish flu pandemic, but not quite as lethal. The Spanish flue killed about 3% of the world population, and COVID-19 doesn't seems about one order of magnitude less lethal.

Which makes it a run-of-the-mill virus. But world leaders sacrificed the economy as a result of the (media?) hysteria that made the virus political?

 

[Panina]

Which makes it a run-of-the-mill virus. But world leaders sacrificed the economy as a result of the (media?) hysteria that made the virus political?

Possibly but you can look at it both ways.

If the collapse of the healthcare systems occur because they can’t handle the volume, many more deaths will occur then if it doesn’t collapse versus the economy being sacrificed for awhile. If the healthcare system collapses not only will more coronavirus patients die, so will many others as the system will not be able to help them, heart attacks, strokes, cancer, people needing emergency services, etc. Either way not a good choice.

I personally choose to minimize risk to life and keep the Healthcare systems from collapsing because if they do the economy will still have major issues.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

Which makes it a run-of-the-mill virus. But world leaders sacrificed the economy as a result of the (media?) hysteria that made the virus political?

It's certainly valid to ask to whether the cure is worse than the disease?

And I would say that public health officials are not the proper people to ask that question. That's like asking the American Society of Civil Engineers (of whom I am a Lifetime Member) whether the USA needs to increase its investment in infrastructure. You will get an informed an answer, but it won't be an objective answer.

That's a tricky question. Where is the trade-off between letting more people die and increased economic disruption?

 

[Ken555]

Where is the trade-off between letting more people die and increased economic disruption?

It is quite saddening to see this question even being asked and discussed openly by elected and appointed members of government. Government exists to serve its citizens, and this question admits the desire by some to alleviate economic hardship in exchange for people dying. This is a time where actions speak louder than words.


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