A Mysterious Virus in Central China Has Infected Dozens, Raising Fears of a New Epidemic. Here's What to Know

[Ken555]

AT LEAST!! I had symptoms begin Feb 28th and still having chest pain, cough and breathing issues (just happened this passed week) all symptoms in the first week and a half then cough, then this past week and a half of breathing difficulties. This thing can last a while!

Hope you feel better soon!


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[MULTIZ321]

Abbott Shipping Thousands Of Coronavirus Test Kits.

Abbott Shipping Thousands Of Coronavirus Test Kits

The FDA issued an Emergency Use Authorization for the tests.

patch.com

.


Richard

 

[Ken555]

Interesting and cheap design to protect health care workers. Anyone here know a manufacturer who might assist?

Aerosol Block

www.aerosolblock.org

pWith the ongoing global outbreak of COVID-19, many infected patients develop respiratory failure requiring endotracheal intubation. Since COVID-19 is transmitted via droplets and aerosol, healthcare providers who are intubating these patients are at high risk of contracting this deadly virus during the intubation process.

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[T_R_Oglodyte]

It is quite saddening to see this question even being asked and discussed openly by elected and appointed members of government. Government exists to serve its citizens, and this question admits the desire by some to alleviate economic hardship in exchange for people dying. This is a time where actions speak louder than words.


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But it's a question that needs to be considered.

The current world population is 7.7 billion people. Implementing COVID-19 response actions is clearly degrading the world economic system. Suppose that the disruptions to the international economy result in a world economy that can only support 5 billion people. (That roughly equates to a 33% decrease in world economic output, which doesn't seem unreasonable to mre under current conditions.)

Would a decrease in world population of 2.7 billion people (largely due to starvation, pestilence, and disease) be a worthwhile tradeoff to implement COVID-19 protective measures? If such a scenario played out, where would those deaths occur, and shouldn't those countries be afforded a strong voice in the global response?

We can't just stick our head in the sand and not ask those questions because they are uncomfortable questions to ask. I would also submit that it's both unfair and inappropriate to ask public health officials to answer those questions. Those questions get to public policy, which means that our elected officials are the ones who need to make those decisions.

*********

At some point it's entirely reasonable to ask whether the cure is worse than the disease. And we need to consider that question on a global scale. What might be a small price for us might be a devastating impact someplace else.

 

[Ken555]

But it's a question that needs to be considered.

I disagree. This topic is counterproductive and inherently defeatist.


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[CalGalTraveler]

We are taking these drastic measures to slow down the pandemic because there is a lack respirator and supply capacity in the healthcare system. As discussed this is devastating the economy. What we are hoping to avoid is unnecessary death because of lack of access to respirators resulting in draconian life and death decisions. Despite these efforts, it is expected that large portions of the population will get Covid-19 over time. Some will die regardless.

I keep wondering: what if the government had these healthcare supplies stockpiled similar to the national oil reserve? Would we be undergoing such drastic measures to shut down our economy? Of course certain populations such as the elderly would still need to socially distance. But I don't think it would have to be everyone.

We can't change the past, but perhaps pulling out all stops to manufacture this healthcare capacity quickly will remove the current restrictions sooner. It's not a perfect solution but it could help segments of the country get working again. Some manufacturing workers could get back on the job building respirators and medical supplies. And unlike looking for a vaccine, it is something we can control now.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

I disagree. This topic is counterproductive and inherently defeatist.


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And I disagree. Being proactive, which to me is the opposite of defeatist, means asking all question, looking at all options and considerations, and determining the best path forward based on a full and best analysis of information at the time a decision is required. But the best path forward cannot be determined if the possibility of certain hypotheses are excluded from consideration arbitrarily or by fiat. That's like trying to develop a cosmic model of the solar system in which it is not allowable to have the Earth as the center of the solar system because anything else would be counterproductive and would undercut the faith of the masses.

Defeatism occurs when one blithely accepts certain outcomes as inevitable or preordained, or when a course of action is decided upon, and that course of action is overwhelmed by an option that was not socially acceptable to consider, leaving the leaders almost impotent to respond to the new reality. Such as a government that initially denies the existence of corona virus outbreak, and then finds itself inundated by the consequences of its inaction.

 

[T-Dot-Traveller]

IMHO, the Governor of New York , just gave the best speech on the Coronavirus, He gave his plans, objectives, missions and the State of New York missions to curtail this Coronavirus.

RE: Governor of New York State
I listen to his brother interview him on CNN last night ( Mon March 23)
[added - watching again / Tues 11 am - New York State press conference .]

The question was asked - “what did you miss as you started planning” - ( my paraphrase )
The answer from the governor - Ventilator availability ( as a key bottleneck) - ( my paraphrase )

I think he is doing a good job being honest / and dealing with a healthcare tsunami that he knows will hit - cause many deaths - and do a lot of economic damage .

**************
The questions now being asked in this thread are valid - IMO .

*************
In a worldwide context - if North America saves 1,000,000 of “ us “ / and 35,000,000 of “them”starve to death
elsewhere in the world . - are we simply acting like the wealthy person on the Titanic - who saved himself .

***************
We will shortly see in real time (in North America) how this plays out - Mexico .

This week - the President of México was still urging people to go out to a restaurant & spend money .
8% of Mexico’s economy is tourism - and for internal tourism - the two weeks on either side Easter Sunday are key -Semana Santa & Pascua -weeks that mean beach resorts & resort towns are 110 % full of Mexican Nationals spending money . For the beach vendor living day to day it is a key time to gain a small nest to tide one through .
IMO- Obrador was hoping the Covid 19 tsunami would hit Mexico after the Easter Holidays .
It is a high wire act with no parachute - that may or may not work .
Mexico and its government has been “ willing to tolerate “ a significant collateral damage death rate per year
in (mostly) non tourist areas - of which most of us are aware .
How the current Mexican Government response to Covid 19 plays out is unknown .
We all will get to witness the results of Mexican Gov / Covid 19 over the coming weeks and months .

******
Keep washing your hands

 

[CPNY]

RE: Governor of New York State
I listen to his brother interview him on CNN last night ( Mon March 23)

The question was asked - “what did you miss as you started planning” - ( my paraphrase )
The answer from the governor - Ventilator availability ( as a key bottleneck) - ( my paraphrase )

I think he is doing a good job being honest / and dealing with a healthcare tsunami that he knows will hit - cause many deaths - and do a lot of economic damage .

**************
The questions now being asked in this thread are valid - IMO .

*************
In a worldwide context - if North America saves 1,000,000 of “ us “ / and 35,000,000 of “them”starve to death
elsewhere in the world . - are we simply acting like the wealthy person on the Titanic - who saved himself .

***************
We will shortly see in real time (in North America) how this plays out - Mexico .

This week - the President of México was still urging people to go out to a restaurant & spend money .
8% of Mexico’s economy is tourism - and for internal tourism - the 2 weeks on either side Easter are key -
Pasqua & Semana Santa weeks mean beach resorts & resort towns are 110 % full of Mexican Nationals spending money . For the beach vendor living day to day it is a key time to gain a small nest to tide one through .
IMO- he was hoping the Covid 19 tsunami would hit Mexico after the Easter Holidays .
It is a high wire act with no parachute - that may or may not work .
Mexico and its government has been “ willing to tolerate “ a significant collateral damage death rate per year
in (mostly) non tourist areas - of which most of us are aware .
How the current Mexican Government response to Covid 19 plays out is unknown .
We all will get to witness the results of Mexican Gov / Covid 19 over the coming weeks and months .

******
Keep washing your hands

Back in 2015 NYS was given a report that they were 18,000 respirators short in case of a pandemic. They chose to not spend the money on needed respirators and necessary equipment. That was a big big mis step. The threat of pandemics has been warned for decades. Even more so since the last SARS/MERS/Swine Flu outbreaks. Cuomo is doing well with this, with his clear direction. Our mayor, not so much at all. I just keep hoping and praying we have gotten ahead of the curve. Ahead enough to save lives and have more time to get PPE to those who need it!

 

["Roger"]

As long as we are taking the possibility of opening up the economy seriously, I would be totally against it until a few intermediate goals were reached.

We currently have only about 350,000 testing kits available with a million promised soon. I don't want to get into the blame game about these numbers, but suggest that we should not open up the economy until there is a massive increase (far beyond one million) test kits available. Then, at least, people could be tested frequently and isolated if necessary. This would help slow down the spread of the coronovirus even in a more open economy.

In a similar vein, there should be enough N95 masks for health care workers before accepting more coronovirus patients for the sake of the economy.

Ventilators? (Trickier in that you don't just need ventilators, but people trained to use them.)
************
Then there are the questions of what opening up the economy would mean.

Will large gatherings be allowed? Sports, but not symphony concerts? (The idea that the latter would at all be considered important was the subject of a sarcastic comment lately.) Church services?

Will people be encouraged to go to restaurants? (I am not sure that I heard this correctly, but 15% of the people employed either work either at restaurants or at restaurants as a second job.) What happens when people don't come?

Similar questions can be asked about the airline industry, hotels, and cruise ships.

I am sure that there are lots of other questions that can be asked about what it would mean to open up the economy.
*****************
A third area of discussion would be given a shortage of ventilators, who gets them. Not nice to say (but then again the whole topic of opening up the economy and sacrificing a lot of lives is not the most delicate topic), I am part of the more at risk population simply because of my age. At the same time, I know that I am far more healthy than many people that I see in the supermarkets who age wise are under sixty. Smokers? Very touchy, the extremely obese? I can tell you that from having taught a course in medical ethics, discussion of these sorts of issues were the most heated of any during the semester and that was in the confines of a classroom which is a fairly safe area for open discussion. I shutter at the prospect of a more for real discussion as policies are made.

 

[GetawaysRus]

Here is a medical news article about hydroxychloroquine (also called Plaquenil) written for rheumatologists. Understand that this is NOT a scientific article from a peer-reviewed medical journal. Think of this as a newspaper for rheumatologists. But it will bring you more up to date on the science:

Hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19? Experts discuss its promise, risks amid reports of shortages

Late last week, President Donald Trump sent shockwaves through the medical industry when he announced in a press conference that the FDA had approved the anti-malarial hydroxychloroquine to treat patients infected with coronavirus. The president added that doctors would be able to prescribe the...

www.healio.com

I did read the French study a few days ago (it took a couple of clicks to get to it from a link posted here on TUG), and I agree that it is a flawed study. There were a number of patients who were not included in the final analysis. Essentially, the authors wrote "a bunch of our patients couldn't tolerate this drug because of side effects or, oops, they got really sick or died. So we excluded them from the final analysis. And if we exclude those individuals, wow, our results are really great!" Sorry, but I don't think you get to exclude dead people or treatment failures from your analysis.

One more thing that no one seems to be talking about. The usual dose of Plaquenil for rheumatoid arthritis or lupus is 200 mg twice daily. In the French study, the dosage was 200 mg three times daily. I saw no comment in the French paper about side effects of hydroxychloroquine or the hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin combo other than those comments that they had to drop some people from their analysis because they could not tolerate the drug or got severely ill or died.

 

[AJCts411]

We are taking these drastic measures to slow down the pandemic because there is a lack respirator and supply capacity in the healthcare system. As discussed this is devastating the economy. What we are hoping to avoid is unnecessary death because of lack of access to respirators resulting in draconian life and death decisions. Despite these efforts, it is expected that large portions of the population will get Covid-19 over time. Some will die regardless.

I keep wondering: what if the government had these healthcare supplies stockpiled similar to the national oil reserve? Would we be undergoing such drastic measures to shut down our economy? Of course certain populations such as the elderly would still need to socially distance. But I don't think it would have to be everyone.

We can't change the past, but perhaps pulling out all stops to manufacture this healthcare capacity quickly will remove the current restrictions sooner. It's not a perfect solution but it could help segments of the country get working again. Some manufacturing workers could get back on the job building respirators and medical supplies. And unlike looking for a vaccine, it is something we can control now.

I think we all are relying on the "government" all far too much. What should the Government stock, what crystal ball should they use? Multiple experts will have multiple answers. The left will and this the right will want that. Being able to respond in the best way on a specific day is al lwe can ask. The rest, we as individuals need to take responsibility for being prepared in at least a minimal way. Disinfectants, a few masks, some dry goods, necessities of life for 30 days. Stocked over a period of time to counter the hoarding we see. Who can foresee what we need to counter the next unknown threat? I am 100% positive the "governments" crystal ball is as good as yours. There is a positive...it is the private sector, manufacturing, that is jumping in and solving supply issues, with the "government" getting out of the way with forgoing certain regulations and red tape.

 

[Glynda]

We left Belize on Saturday and there were no confirmed cases. The first positive test came back today. A woman in her 30s who flew in from California last Thursday. I guess she doesn't know what 'shelter in place' means! We talked to quite a few expats who were going to ride it out in Belize thinking it would be safe there. Now the Belizean officials are tracking down everybody who sat near her on the small plane from the airport to San Pedro and then was near her at her hotel.

-Diane

It almost seems as if warmer countries have fewer cases. Or is this a virus moving from North to South?

 

[queenofthehive]

What kind of society have we become when we refuse to protect human life? Very disappointing indeed...

 

[Ken555]

When You Die of the Coronavirus, You Die Alone
Containing a pandemic means keeping visitors out of the I.C.U.
My patients will suffer in solitary confinement.

Opinion | I’m on the Front Lines. I Have No Plan for This. (Published 2020)

We’re not allowing visitors in the I.C.U. My patients will suffer in solitary confinement.

www.nytimes.com

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[MULTIZ321]

As coronavirus pandemic worsens, Elon Musk makes good on ventilator promise.

As coronavirus pandemic worsens, Elon Musk makes good on ventilator promise

Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk made good on his promise to deliver ventilators to aid in the coronavirus pandemic, California Gov. Gavin Newsom said Monday.

www.foxnews.com

.


Richard

 

[MULTIZ321]

This is the reason why the spread of Coronavirus is so rapid.

This is the reason why the spread of Coronavirus is so rapid

Research into infection looks at the time it takes for symptoms to appear in two people with the virus: the person who infects another, and the infected second person.

www.weforum.org

Richard

 

[CalGalTraveler]

I think we all are relying on the "government" all far too much. What should the Government stock, what crystal ball should they use? Multiple experts will have multiple answers. The left will and this the right will want that. Being able to respond in the best way on a specific day is al lwe can ask. The rest, we as individuals need to take responsibility for being prepared in at least a minimal way. Disinfectants, a few masks, some dry goods, necessities of life for 30 days. Stocked over a period of time to counter the hoarding we see. Who can foresee what we need to counter the next unknown threat? I am 100% positive the "governments" crystal ball is as good as yours. There is a positive...it is the private sector, manufacturing, that is jumping in and solving supply issues, with the "government" getting out of the way with forgoing certain regulations and red tape.

I am all for private enterprise and avoiding red tape. However there can be government identification of manufacturers, tax incentives and coordination to get the ventilators to the places that need it the most quickly. Right now it is every health care system for themselves and this is driving up prices and inconsistencies as to where the supplies go. The most well funded healthcare systems can pay the highest price. This may not get the supplies to poorer health systems which may need it more.

While I agree that the vast majority were underprepared at home, taking your argument to the extreme, should we all buy ventilators and HPE for each of our family members and stockpile them for ourselves in our home for the next pandemic? Hint: this mindset that the government won't help is what's driving to people to panic and stockpile at stores.

 

[Fredflintstone]

But it's a question that needs to be considered.

The current world population is 7.7 billion people. Implementing COVID-19 response actions is clearly degrading the world economic system. Suppose that the disruptions to the international economy result in a world economy that can only support 5 billion people. (That roughly equates to a 33% decrease in world economic output, which doesn't seem unreasonable to mre under current conditions.)

Would a decrease in world population of 2.7 billion people (largely due to starvation, pestilence, and disease) be a worthwhile tradeoff to implement COVID-19 protective measures? If such a scenario played out, where would those deaths occur, and shouldn't those countries be afforded a strong voice in the global response?

We can't just stick our head in the sand and not ask those questions because they are uncomfortable questions to ask. I would also submit that it's both unfair and inappropriate to ask public health officials to answer those questions. Those questions get to public policy, which means that our elected officials are the ones who need to make those decisions.

*********

At some point it's entirely reasonable to ask whether the cure is worse than the disease. And we need to consider that question on a global scale. What might be a small price for us might be a devastating impact someplace else.

I am not sure if you are alluding to the death rate may improve the world better being able to handle the population or not.

Here’s the way I look at it.

1. Human beings are priceless. We have an obligation to do whatever is necessary to save anyone and everyone. Yes, deaths will occur but that doesn’t absolve our responsibility to attempt to mitigate death.
2. With technology and advancements, we can clearly support the global population. Studies have shown for quite some time that the reason why we have disparity is because of greed and sometimes corruption, not lack of resources.

I look at economic systems as secondary to human life. In the end, we will be fine and that’s with the current population numbers.


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[MULTIZ321]

The Promising Math Behind 'Flattening the Curve'

The Promising Math Behind ‘Flattening the Curve’

Infectious diseases spread exponentially, yes, but only in the beginning. Thank God.

www.wired.com

Richard

 

[Ken555]

From a friend who works for UNHCR:

I’m on a conference call about COVID-19 in Colombia. WHO/PAHO has been presenting.
One fact that stood out for me: Worldwide, it took 67 days to reach 100k confirmed cases; it took another 11 days to reach 200k cases; and it took only another 4 days to reach 300k cases!
The exponential transmission rate is really scary.

 

[b2bailey]

RE: Governor of New York State

...
The question was asked - “what did you miss as you started planning” - ( my paraphrase )
The answer from the governor - Ventilator availability

**************
The questions now being asked in this thread are valid - IMO .

*************
In a worldwide context - if North America saves 1,000,000 of “ us “ / and 35,000,000 of “them”starve to death
elsewhere in the world . - are we simply acting like the wealthy person on the Titanic - who saved himself .

******
Keep washing your hands

I think each of the below could evolve into a thread of it's own.
1. Ventilator supply
2. Freedom to speak openly on TUG threads
3. Death by disease or starvation

1. I was happy to hear Cuomo suggest that Ventilators could be forwarded on to other areas in need. I had started to imagine storehouse of them piling up and rusting away. (Kind of like the mothballs fleet in Benecia, CA )
2. I prefer that all people feel free to express their point of view, even if it is different from my own. I get uneasy when there is a 'shaming' by some posters.
3. There is an interesting recent interview of Bill Gates and he used the word 'rich' country to point out differences in options available. I respect President of Mexico for his stance for his country. I'm only sorry the border is closed. I had a timeshare reservation in Mazatlan starting next week and I was looking forward to a timeout there.

 

[MULTIZ321]

Johns Hopkins' coronavirus- tracking map now shows COVID-19 cases by city, county.

https://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/news/2020/03/24/johnshopkins-coronavirus-tracking-map-now-shows.html

.


Richard

 

[TravelTime]

I think each of the below could evolve into a thread of it's own.
1. Ventilator supply
2. Freedom to speak openly on TUG threads
3. Death by disease or starvation

1. I was happy to hear Cuomo suggest that Ventilators could be forwarded on to other areas in need. I had started to imagine storehouse of them piling up and rusting away. (Kind of like the mothballs fleet in Benecia, CA )
2. I prefer that all people feel free to express their point of view, even if it is different from my own. I get uneasy when there is a 'shaming' by some posters.
3. There is an interesting recent interview of Bill Gates and he used the word 'rich' country to point out differences in options available. I respect President of Mexico for his stance for his country. I'm only sorry the border is closed. I had a timeshare reservation in Mazatlan starting next week and I was looking forward to a timeout there.

I agree with point 2. There is a lot of shaming going on right now.

On point 3, here is an interesting article on the impact of economic crisis on poorer nations.

In World’s Most Vulnerable Countries, the Pandemic Rivals the 2008 Crisis (Published 2020)

As capital flees emerging markets, those countries are absorbing the most potent economic shocks of the coronavirus outbreak.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Panina]

I think each of the below could evolve into a thread of it's own.
2. Freedom to speak openly on TUG threads

2. I prefer that all people feel free to express their point of view, even if it is different from my own. I get uneasy when there is a 'shaming' by some posters.

I agree with point 2. There is a lot of shaming going on right now.

Two sayings come to mind...

When you judge another
you do not define them
you define yourself

and

People are quick to judge others faults
but never quick to point out their own