You're Being Lied to About Electric Cars

[emeryjre]

.

 

[buzglyd]

Like I said
You have no idea what the high density urban market is like
The idea that you present facts is a figment of your imagination

I live in Southern California. What are you talking about?

 

[HitchHiker71]

For ev's to become popular in the USA, the cost difference of EV versus ice vehicles would have to hugely favor ev's, the convenience factor would have to shift to be EV over ice and the types of vehicles would need to similar.

EV sales in the USA are tanking because of the lack of government incentives to EV buyers causing many ev's to be discontinued. On the flip side, Section 179 Tax Rules are now back to full bonus depreciation for ice vehicles that weigh over 6000 pounds and the interest of at least assembled in the USA new ice vehicle loans is a tax write off to all consumers. In 2026 the trend of ev's being viewed as a viable product in the USA will decline as car makers abandon EV's for profitable ice vehicles like suv's and trucks.

The only way ev's make a come back in the USA is through price because cheap Chinese EV's that our automakers can't compete with will never be allowed in the USA. Countries that allow these products face US trade barriers, tariffs and political pressure, so I doubt these Chinese EV's will be a thing with countries that need the USA.

The energy policies of the USA has changed, giving the edge to ice vehicles, which is another reason to think ev's won't be a viable product in the USA. Tesla might be the only viable EV in the USA in a few years because they are profitable, have infrastructure and are recognized as a good product.

I think I'm painting a pretty clear picture of the facts for the future of ev's in the USA for the next 3 1/2 years anyway.

Bill

None of this will matter much when Tesla releases Unsupervised self driving in 2026. FSD 14 is incredible. We left for vacation Friday and FSD drove us literally out of our garage and 5-6 hours later pulled into the resort and parked itself after driving 300 miles and stopping once to charge at a Dunkin Donuts 3/4 of the way there - which again it did all by itself - I literally never touched the steering wheel once for the entire journey. This is an efficiency play beyond anything any other competitor is remotely close to - they are still years away from this at best. When people realize they no longer have to drive - and can recover that time to do whatever they want while in their vehicle - use their phones - watch movies - watch their favorite shows - etc - it’s game over for the legacy automakers - and this is already here today - now. It’s a game changer. 2026 will be the year people look back on years from now as the year everything in the auto industry changed. Tesla will sell cars like hotcakes when everyone realizes how much time they get back not having to drive everywhere.


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[buzglyd]

None of this will matter much when Tesla releases Unsupervised self driving in 2026. FSD 14 is incredible. We left for vacation Friday and FSD drove us literally out of our garage and 5-6 hours later pulled into the resort and parked itself after driving 300 miles and stopping once to charge at a Dunkin Donuts 3/4 of the way there - which again it did all by itself - I literally never touched the steering wheel once for the entire journey. This is an efficiency play beyond anything any other competitor is remotely close to - they are still years away from this at best. When people realize they no longer have to drive - and can recover that time to do whatever they want whole in the vehicle - use their phones - watch movies - watch their favorite shows - etc - it’s game over for the legacy automakers - and this is already here today - now. It’s a game changer. 2026 will be the year people look back on years from now as the year everything in the auto industry changed. Tesla will sell cars like hotcakes when everyone realizes how much time they get back not having to drive everywhere.


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I haven’t seen the update hit yet. Did you get on some secret early adopter list?

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

None of this will matter much when Tesla releases Unsupervised self driving in 2026. FSD 14 is incredible. We left for vacation Friday and FSD drove us literally out of our garage and 5-6 hours later pulled into the resort and parked itself after driving 300 miles and stopping once to charge at a Dunkin Donuts 3/4 of the way there - which again it did all by itself - I literally never touched the steering wheel once for the entire journey. This is an efficiency play beyond anything any other competitor is remotely close to - they are still years away from this at best. When people realize they no longer have to drive - and can recover that time to do whatever they want whole in the vehicle - use their phones - watch movies - watch their favorite shows - etc - it’s game over for the legacy automakers - and this is already here today - now. It’s a game changer. 2026 will be the year people look back on years from now as the year everything in the auto industry changed. Tesla will sell cars like hotcakes when everyone realizes how much time they get back not having to drive everywhere.


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At what price? (Hint: It's not just the price of the car. . . )

 

[HitchHiker71]

I haven’t seen the update hit yet. Did you get on some secret early adopter list?

I’m part of the early adopter group yes. I received FSD 14.1.3 Thursday - left for vacation Friday. Those not in the early adopter groups will likely have to wait for 14.2 in a couple of weeks. 14.1.4 just hit yesterday, waiting to get the download while on vacation.


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[HitchHiker71]

At what price? (Hint: It's not just the price of the car. . . )

We bought FSD with the car - the amount it added to the payment was an additional $105/month - renting it via subscription is $100/month now - always subject to change in the future - so it made sense to buy it this time around.


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[easyrider]

None of this will matter much when Tesla releases Unsupervised self driving in 2026. FSD 14 is incredible. We left for vacation Friday and FSD drove us literally out of our garage and 5-6 hours later pulled into the resort and parked itself after driving 300 miles and stopping once to charge at a Dunkin Donuts 3/4 of the way there - which again it did all by itself - I literally never touched the steering wheel once for the entire journey. This is an efficiency play beyond anything any other competitor is remotely close to - they are still years away from this at best. When people realize they no longer have to drive - and can recover that time to do whatever they want whole in the vehicle - use their phones - watch movies - watch their favorite shows - etc - it’s game over for the legacy automakers - and this is already here today - now. It’s a game changer. 2026 will be the year people look back on years from now as the year everything in the auto industry changed. Tesla will sell cars like hotcakes when everyone realizes how much time they get back not having to drive everywhere.


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Wow, that is an innovation that will be a game changer, imo.

Has anyone discussed the legal realities of unsupervised self driving ? I kind of wonder how the liability is dealt with and who pays for what if unsupervised self driving becomes legal for more than just testing. At this time, self driving vehicles have a higher percentage of accidents than regular vehicles.

Bill

https://ethosrisk.com/blog/whos-lia...a Tesla operating in,the situation on its own.

Normally, when two cars crash, someone behind the wheel is to blame. Maybe they were speeding, distracted, or ran a red light. However, with self-driving vehicles, the question of liability gets more complicated. Responsibility could fall on the vehicle owner, the manufacturer, the software developer, or even the companies that supply the sensors and hardware.

This creates a whole new way of thinking about liability. Here are some key questions that insurance adjusters may need to ask:

• Was the car in self-driving mode when the crash happened?
• If there was a human driver present, should they have stepped in to take control?
• Did the car’s technology make a mistake?
• Was there a flaw in the way the system was designed?

Example:​

If a Tesla operating in Full Self-Driving mode rear-ends another vehicle, the crash might be caused by a software glitch, misread road sign, or delayed response from the driver. Insurance adjusters may need to determine whether the driver had any control or if the car was supposed to handle the situation on its own.

Adding to the complexity, self-driving vehicles tend to be involved in more crashes, on average, than human-driven cars. According to data up to 2021, autonomous vehicles experience 9.1 crashes per million miles, compared to 4.1 crashes per million miles in traditional vehicles. That’s more than twice as many accidents, on average.

So, even though these cars are marketed as safer, they may still pose higher risks from an insurance standpoint.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

We bought FSD with the car - the amount it added to the payment was an additional $105/month - renting it via subscription is $100/month now - always subject to change in the future - so it made sense to buy it this time around.


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When the car is paid for, you will still pay for the self driving - forever. . . The last time I bought a car, I paid cash for it - no payments. I can't conceive buying a car and having to pay the company for a feature on it - forever.

But then again, I don't stream anything, either.

 

[emeryjre]

Once the barrier to Full Autonomous Driving (FAD) is surpassed, Tesla will have an advantage for a relatively short time (maybe a year)
The development of the Processors driving this innovation is occurring at breakneck speed and includes all the names we know in chip design
The costs will come down as competitors such as Waymo and Nvidia Self Driving Division put their FAD systems into other manufacturers vehicles
FAD will be a game changer
No question about it
Tesla will have the lead, but not own the market for long

 

[buzglyd]

None of this will matter much when Tesla releases Unsupervised self driving in 2026. FSD 14 is incredible. We left for vacation Friday and FSD drove us literally out of our garage and 5-6 hours later pulled into the resort and parked itself after driving 300 miles and stopping once to charge at a Dunkin Donuts 3/4 of the way there - which again it did all by itself - I literally never touched the steering wheel once for the entire journey. This is an efficiency play beyond anything any other competitor is remotely close to - they are still years away from this at best. When people realize they no longer have to drive - and can recover that time to do whatever they want whole in the vehicle - use their phones - watch movies - watch their favorite shows - etc - it’s game over for the legacy automakers - and this is already here today - now. It’s a game changer. 2026 will be the year people look back on years from now as the year everything in the auto industry changed. Tesla will sell cars like hotcakes when everyone realizes how much time they get back not having to drive everywhere.


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I haven’t seen the update hit yet. Did you get on some secret early adopter list

I’m part of the early adopter group yes. I received FSD 14.1.3 Thursday - left for vacation Friday. Those not in the early adopter groups will likely have to wait for 14.2 in a couple of weeks. 14.1.4 just hit yesterday, waiting to get the download while on vacation.


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I will keep looking for my update.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

At this time, self driving vehicles have a higher percentage of accidents than regular vehicles

OMG, cue 20 posts using poorly-defined, even more poorly-understood stats from both sides.

 

[davidvel]

OMG, cue 20 posts using poorly-defined, even more poorly-understood stats from both sides.

And yet we don't need to cue everyone else is stupid and can't think, I am the superior thinker and will post random disconnected attacks on unknown persons using generalities and old tropes. Because you just played that song.

 

[easyrider]

OMG, cue 20 posts using poorly-defined, even more poorly-understood stats from both sides.

And yet we don't need to cue everyone else is stupid and can't think, I am the superior thinker and will post random disconnected attacks on unknown persons using generalities and old tropes. Because you just played that song.

I actually believe the Ethos Plus article. The reality of self driving cars liability wise is they really aren't self driving unless there are no instruments to operate the car as a driver. As autonomous vehicles are now, as far as I'm concerned, it's not much different than having a distracted driver on the road.

I don't get the meaning of your post. @WaikikiFirst What do you mean ? @davidvel You could maybe talk about ev's because this is an EV thread.

Bill

 

[buzglyd]

And speaking of FSD, 14.1.4 dropped last night and is installing right now. No more 13 for me!

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

To me, a product like this is more for kicks and giggles than the real world. Kind of like a rich dads kids high school science experiment. It is interesting.

Bill

Not really A specialized tool for a specialized need. I'm a life-long bachelor, no kids. I don't need a back seat. As a retiree, I don't have a 5 days a week commute. If I cut the solar mileage in half (being pessimistic), I should get 140 mile a week, more than adequate for my urban/suburban needs - for free. Aptera supports the DIY style, no complaints about doing your own updating/repairs. For road trips you can use a Tesla style charger.

No self driving, but no $100 a month forever, either. A cheapskate mode of transportation; which suits me.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

cue everyone else is stupid and can't think

Oh no, not stupid. They're just absolutely awful with data. "can't think"? What they can't do is be bothered to do any calculations. They much much MUCH prefer
S O A P. At the end of the day, preferring S O A P over DATA when there is plenty of DATA avail, means a person just doesn't CARE to be accurate. CARING is the issue. Any inherent capacity is not the issue. Next ...

 

[WaikikiFirst]

I don't get the meaning of your post. @WaikikiFirst What do you mean ?

I actually believe the Ethos Plus article.

I guess I believe it the ethical and insurance quandries part of it too, not that I consider myself an expert.
The #s are another thing ... as they usually are. That article says "According to data up to 2021 ...". It is Oct2025. Using data that began in some UNDISCLOSED distant past and ended in 2021 is nonsense for a technology that changes so rapidly. So,
A) I call that a major whiff on the part of the author, and
B) I am sure that people in the Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association (AVIA) have other data that they present to policy-makers. Here is another article
www.brookings.edu/articles/the-evolving-safety-and-policy-challenges-of-self-driving-cars
Note how many BUTs & OTOHs there are in that article. For every BUT & OTOH, there are people on both sides of the line with data to throw at you and at policy-makers. Note this "In April 2024, the Association for Computing Machinery, warned policymakers that they should not assume that fully automated vehicles will necessarily reduce road injuries and fatalities." Why did they do that? Because they know that people from the AVIA lobby policy-makers with the opposite claim, and they know that some, more than a few, policy-makers believe the opposite. That is the murk you jump into when you state simply "

At this time, self driving vehicles have a higher percentage of accidents than regular vehicles.

"At this time"? Or in 2021? Or in 2020? Or when? And using WHAT data? And then there is the bugaboo of using data from a diverse collection of events summarized into a simple numerator and a simple denominator. BUgaboo = MIX, but I've said that before, haven't I?
Everyone, read this sentence again and remember it. "there is the bugaboo of using data from a diverse collection of events summarized into a simple numerator and a simple denominator."

 

[WaikikiFirst]

But then again, I don't stream anything, either.

mp3s, buh-baby

 

[easyrider]

I guess I believe it the ethical and insurance quandries part of it too, not that I consider myself an expert.
The #s are another thing ... as they usually are. That article says "According to data up to 2021 ...". It is Oct2025. Using data that began in some UNDISCLOSED distant past and ended in 2021 is nonsense for a technology that changes so rapidly. So,
A) I call that a major whiff on the part of the author, and
B) I am sure that people in the Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association (AVIA) have other data that they present to policy-makers. Here is another article
www.brookings.edu/articles/the-evolving-safety-and-policy-challenges-of-self-driving-cars
Note how many BUTs & OTOHs there are in that article. For every BUT & OTOH, there are people on both sides of the line with data to throw at you and at policy-makers. Note this "In April 2024, the Association for Computing Machinery, warned policymakers that they should not assume that fully automated vehicles will necessarily reduce road injuries and fatalities." Why did they do that? Because they know that people from the AVIA lobby policy-makers with the opposite claim, and they know that some, more than a few, policy-makers believe the opposite. That is the murk you jump into when you state simply "

"At this time"? Or in 2021? Or in 2020? Or when? And using WHAT data? And then there is the bugaboo of using data from a diverse collection of events summarized into a simple numerator and a simple denominator. BUgaboo = MIX, but I've said that before, haven't I?
Everyone, read this sentence again and remember it. "there is the bugaboo of using data from a diverse collection of events summarized into a simple numerator and a simple denominator."

The article I posted was only to show that there is an ongoing issue with self driving cars and liability. It wouldn't really matter much if the self driving cars had less accidents than traditional cars so focusing on the timelines might not matter as much as assigning fault of the accident for liability purposes, imo. Someone has to pay for accidents.

There are five levels of self driving cars that SAE International list and organizations like the NHTSA recognize. Level 3 is conditional automation and is where Tesla is now. This means Tesla may or may not be liable for accidents because the vehicle requires human input through the vehicles instruments to avoid accidents. If Tesla ever makes it to level 4 or 5 self driving cars with no instruments for human input , Tesla would likely be liable for accidents.

I think Tesla level 3 self driving is pretty cool but it can cause a driver to be distracted. Distractions are the cause of many driving accidents. To mitigate self driving distractions, there should be a mechanism in the self driving car that limits the speed while self driving to maybe 30 mph to avoid high speed fatalities, imo.

Bill

https://www.nhtsa.gov/sites/nhtsa.gov/files/2022-05/Level-of-Automation-052522-tag.pdf

 

[davidvel]

Oh no, not stupid. They're just absolutely awful with data. "can't think"? What they can't do is be bothered to do any calculations. They much much MUCH prefer
S O A P. At the end of the day, preferring S O A P over DATA when there is plenty of DATA avail, means a person just doesn't CARE to be accurate. CARING is the issue. Any inherent capacity is not the issue. Next ...

I guess I believe it the ethical and insurance quandries part of it too, not that I consider myself an expert.
The #s are another thing ... as they usually are. That article says "According to data up to 2021 ...". It is Oct2025. Using data that began in some UNDISCLOSED distant past and ended in 2021 is nonsense for a technology that changes so rapidly. So,
A) I call that a major whiff on the part of the author, and
B) I am sure that people in the Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association (AVIA) have other data that they present to policy-makers. Here is another article
www.brookings.edu/articles/the-evolving-safety-and-policy-challenges-of-self-driving-cars
Note how many BUTs & OTOHs there are in that article. For every BUT & OTOH, there are people on both sides of the line with data to throw at you and at policy-makers. Note this "In April 2024, the Association for Computing Machinery, warned policymakers that they should not assume that fully automated vehicles will necessarily reduce road injuries and fatalities." Why did they do that? Because they know that people from the AVIA lobby policy-makers with the opposite claim, and they know that some, more than a few, policy-makers believe the opposite. That is the murk you jump into when you state simply "

"At this time"? Or in 2021? Or in 2020? Or when? And using WHAT data? And then there is the bugaboo of using data from a diverse collection of events summarized into a simple numerator and a simple denominator. BUgaboo = MIX, but I've said that before, haven't I?
Everyone, read this sentence again and remember it. "there is the bugaboo of using data from a diverse collection of events summarized into a simple numerator and a simple denominator."

As I said...

 

[HitchHiker71]

When the car is paid for, you will still pay for the self driving - forever. . . The last time I bought a car, I paid cash for it - no payments. I can't conceive buying a car and having to pay the company for a feature on it - forever.

But then again, I don't stream anything, either.

If you buy FSD you pay a fixed fee of $8000 once, and will never pay for it again for the life of the Tesla vehicle. There’s also a subscription option that currently charges $100/month but that price is always subject to change and once Unsupervised becomes a reality it won’t be that cheap. The fixed price is also subject to change as well, but once you purchase it you own it and all subsequent updates provided the FSD hardware can run the update. Tesla also has promotions allowing existing owners to transfer FSD, provided it was purchased in full, to a newly purchased vehicle for no cost.


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[HitchHiker71]

Once the barrier to Full Autonomous Driving (FAD) is surpassed, Tesla will have an advantage for a relatively short time (maybe a year)
The development of the Processors driving this innovation is occurring at breakneck speed and includes all the names we know in chip design
The costs will come down as competitors such as Waymo and Nvidia Self Driving Division put their FAD systems into other manufacturers vehicles
FAD will be a game changer
No question about it
Tesla will have the lead, but not own the market for long

The processors are only a small part of the equation. You must have data, huge amounts of real world data, to train the neural network models using the processors. Tesla has over six billion miles of FSD data, no one else comes even remotely close to the data required to do this. Waymo’s aren’t scalable. Each Waymo has $75k of tech on it to use their systems. That’s more than the cost of the entire vehicle in most cases - thanks to a huge number of LIDAR units that are thousands of dollars each. Tesla will own this market for years. People think doing something like this is easy. It has taken Tesla 10 years to get to this point, and they have, by far, the best engineers in the industry. I doubt anyone is going to catch up any time soon. Most of the legacy manufacturers will end up having to license FSD from Tesla to survive.


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