Westin St John [Master Thread] - Part 2 (June 2014 and forward)

[GrayFal]

Just went to cancel my SB Easter resie and saw a new message, very disturbing...the entire calendar for a year is blocked and there is a red text message that says "Property is currently not accepting reservations".

I am seeing this as well. Regardless of what date I put in.

We might have a long while to wait to visit our beloved island again.

I am waiting for Vistana to cancel my week 7 VGV Resie to see what options they are offering.

 

[SandyPGravel]

Wow, so our MF bills for use year 2018 will be due at the end of the year for a property we cannot use. I've already pre-paid most of my 2018 MF, just so I don't have that huge bill to pay at one time. I count my lucky stars that I bought in a mandatory section so at least I can get some use out of my SO, but that is a lot of SO(Plat+) to try to use up somewhere else. (Still working, so vacation time has its limits.) Plus I, unlike a few of you, didn't procrastinate and have my airfare for February already. I was soooo happy because I had scored my cheapest airfare yet to STT. (Not looking so cheap now) On the upside(sorta...trying to grab at straws here) I used CC points so I'm technically not out any $$, just some built up assets. $200/ticket in change fees plus any difference in airfare. OUCH. Tickets were only $427/person to start.

I agree it would be nice for some communication from the resort. The only semi-tangible info was from the Boston Globe article. Otherwise "just wait and see, hold on we'll tell you....eventually." I'd say it's pretty obvious if they have blocked off accepting all reservations they have an idea that they will not be re-opening in 2018. It would be nice if they extended how long the SO could be banked.

I would also hope they would have some mercy on voluntary owners. I realize the chance you take when purchasing a resale voluntary section, but if VSE doesn't do something for them, there is no reason for them not to walk except the hit on credit. Easily could be two years of MF for the resale low season owners with nothing to show for it. The program from around 2007 where they offered SVR owners the option to buy in for $500 or $600 dollars then the ability to join SVN and bank would be a nice option. Even if the cost was a little more, say $1000, that would be a nice chunk of change for the resort to apply toward the repairs. Some owners would jump at the chance. Or they could, as a sign of good will, deed back the weeks of owners that want out and then VSE can sell high again. Don't some other TS systems allow a fee to deed back? That would be another source of capital toward repairs. Give VSE $500 to get out of the deed? Some owners would jump at that chance too. Also I think the idea that they are willing to take back the VOI would convince some owners that there must be some value in the VOI and they might opt to keep the VOI and continue paying the MF. (Long shot, I know.) When I went to my owners update I told them very specifically what I was willing to purchase and nothing was available. So, I would say, IMO, there is a market for weeks if none are available!

I am glad someone else mentioned whether or not you could deposit the voluntary weeks in II. I was wondering the same thing. How can you deposit a week that is unusable?

Ok, I'm done rambling for the moment.

 

[SMHarman]

I'm thinking that they don't want more reservations in 2018 than they currently have.

If they are 50% sold and can get 50% open then they are effectively a sold out resort and can run like that while fixing the rest of the buildings.

If I were thinking about repair phasing I'd be looking my to get that done phase by phase with the main resort phases tackled first and during that time bring the hill people reservations into main resort units while theirs are repaired.

 

[SMHarman]

I am told the damage at WSJ exceeds $100MM. Not to worry, though: for all you WSJ naysayers, Vistana direct sales is taking them back as trades as of yesterday.

Also, I can guarantee there are a bunch of investors salivating at the thought of Caneel Bay or other prime properties deciding not to rebuild. Buy low, sell high...

I'm surprised at these caneel by any rumors. You would think that at $800 a night and sold out peak season they have the cashflow and insurance to rebuild.

Also what about the donkeys.

 

[tomandrobin]

Also what about the donkeys.

Donkeys weathered the storms better then the hotels.

 

[tomandrobin]

Before Hurricane Maria, I was assuming that help to rebuild would come from St Croix and Puerto Rico. Now that they both have been ravaged, where is the help going to come from? There is enough rebuilding to be done on their own islands now. And when Westin can finally hire a firm to do the work, where are the workers going to stay?

I see so many logistical problems and obstacles for the Resort to get repaired and back in service, can't even imagine it on an island wide scale.

Just thinking about repairing/replacing all those utility poles on St. John, St. Thomas, St. Croix and Puerto Rico. Based on the estimates of damaged poles, you are looking at around 30,000-50,000 poles? Hurricane Sandy required 65,100 wood poles and 103,500 wood cross arms, and Hurricane Katrina 92,000 wood poles and 90,000 wood cross arms the first month afterwards. Those poles need to be shipped and off loaded along with every other resource those islands need to rebuild.

 

[tomandrobin]

On the plus side, I still have my Atlantis week booked for end of June.

 

[SMHarman]

Donkeys weathered the storms better then the hotels.

They have been there longer

 

[dioxide45]

I am glad someone else mentioned whether or not you could deposit the voluntary weeks in II. I was wondering the same thing. How can you deposit a week that is unusable?

If you currently have a reservation, I suppose you could possibly deposit it. Though they could later cancel the deposit and any exchanges made with it if they determine that the host accommodation is not available. If you don't have a reservation yet for 2018, well, you can't deposit anything since they aren't taking new reservations. Though I recall that Vistana doesn't allow you to deposit a reservation, so perhaps they won't allocate your week for deposit now with WSJ weeks?

 

[DavidnRobin]

More video of WSJ
https://www.facebook.com/groups/269556383563172/permalink/276703616181782/


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[okwiater]

Before Hurricane Maria, I was assuming that help to rebuild would come from St Croix and Puerto Rico. Now that they both have been ravaged, where is the help going to come from? There is enough rebuilding to be done on their own islands now. And when Westin can finally hire a firm to do the work, where are the workers going to stay?

I see so many logistical problems and obstacles for the Resort to get repaired and back in service, can't even imagine it on an island wide scale.

Maybe they'll hire a Chinese company to rebuild the resort a la Baja Mar in Nassau. Those workers lived on a boat and added nothing to the local economy!

 

[Helios]

I am seeing this as well. Regardless of what date I put in.

We might have a long while to wait to visit our beloved island again.

I am waiting for Vistana to cancel my week 7 VGV Resie to see what options they are offering.

I ended cancelling my SB Easter week resie. I guess the SOs will have to do. Hopefully I can use my 2018 Pool Villa (November), but I am guessing no...

 

[Julian926]

Ha.....We also procrastinated buying our airfare for WSJ in 2018. We usually buy our airfare when the boooking window opens.

We still have not canceled our July 2018 trip. My heart really wants to go, but my head keeps telling me to move on for next year and come back in 2020. Plus, we need to coordinate with three other owners on whether we should go or not go. I know the Westin Manager has said they plan on being open in March, but I just don't see how or if it is, what exactly will be open at the resort.

Puerto Rico and St Croix were major stepping blocks in the recovery process. After Maria, they now need help......so where does St John get their help from?

I'm in the same boat. After the hurricane, I booked through VSN and I had May open. I naturally assumed that this meant that the resort will be open by then, but it may not be the case. I wished they closed all of the 2018 weeks until they knew when exactly they will be available.

 

[Helios]

I would also hope they would have some mercy on voluntary owners. I realize the chance you take when purchasing a resale voluntary section, but if VSE doesn't do something for them, there is no reason for them not to walk except the hit on credit. Easily could be two years of MF for the resale low season owners with nothing to show for it. The program from around 2007 where they offered SVR owners the option to buy in for $500 or $600 dollars then the ability to join SVN and bank would be a nice option. Even if the cost was a little more, say $1000, that would be a nice chunk of change for the resort to apply toward the repairs. Some owners would jump at the chance. Or they could, as a sign of good will, deed back the weeks of owners that want out and then VSE can sell high again. Don't some other TS systems allow a fee to deed back? That would be another source of capital toward repairs. Give VSE $500 to get out of the deed? Some owners would jump at that chance too. Also I think the idea that they are willing to take back the VOI would convince some owners that there must be some value in the VOI and they might opt to keep the VOI and continue paying the MF. (Long shot, I know.) When I went to my owners update I told them very specifically what I was willing to purchase and nothing was available. So, I would say, IMO, there is a market for weeks if none are available!

I am glad someone else mentioned whether or not you could deposit the voluntary weeks in II. I was wondering the same thing. How can you deposit a week that is unusable?

Ok, I'm done rambling for the moment.

I have mixed feelings about this.

I spent significant $s retroing my pool villa weeks and even got a SB unit to clean my portfolio and have a week located in the main resort. So, Vistana offering the SVR program would not sit well with me. This would need to be priced properly. Also, wouldn't all other owners who purchased from the developer be upset as well when they realize there is more competition to get SOs reservations. I do that very rarely so that makes no difference to me.

On the flip side, I don't want take the hit with those MFs/SAs that would need to be subsidized by remaining owners.

 

[Helios]

I am told the damage at WSJ exceeds $100MM. Not to worry, though: for all you WSJ naysayers, Vistana direct sales is taking them back as trades as of yesterday.

Also, I can guarantee there are a bunch of investors salivating at the thought of Caneel Bay or other prime properties deciding not to rebuild. Buy low, sell high...

Is vistana your source? If you can elaborate, please PM me.

 

[SMHarman]

I am told the damage at WSJ exceeds $100MM. Not to worry, though: for all you WSJ naysayers, Vistana direct sales is taking them back as trades as of yesterday.

Also, I can guarantee there are a bunch of investors salivating at the thought of Caneel Bay or other prime properties deciding not to rebuild. Buy low, sell high...

100m. I struggle to get to that number.

Land value is still there. I don't see 100m of new / repair construction. Especially when you look at the unit renovation budgets etc.

Now material cost and trash haulage are higher but even then the 200-400 psf to build number does not get to a point where you hit that on the Sq ft built on the site.

 

[dioxide45]

100m. I struggle to get to that number.

Land value is still there. I don't see 100m of new / repair construction. Especially when you look at the unit renovation budgets etc.

Now material cost and trash haulage are higher but even then the 200-400 psf to build number does not get to a point where you hit that on the Sq ft built on the site.

90MM was quoted in a newspaper article, I think it came from the GM.

 

[lizap]

I have mixed feelings about this.

I spent significant $s retroing my pool villa weeks and even got a SB unit to clean my portfolio and have a week located in the main resort. So, Vistana offering the SVR program would not sit well with me. This would need to be priced properly. Also, wouldn't all other owners who purchased from the developer be upset as well when they realize there is more competition to get SOs reservations. I do that very rarely so that makes no difference to me.

On the flip side, I don't want take the hit with those MFs/SAs that would need to be subsidized by remaining owners.

I just don't see them offering voluntary owners an opportunity to use SVN for a fee. I suspect their only option will be to deposit into II, although there's nothing to deposit (so they would be making a special accomodation).

 

[SMHarman]

90MM was quoted in a newspaper article, I think it came from the GM.

He's a quantity surveyor now?

Seriously. Can you get to that number!

I only can adding a 200% premium for lack of staff and resource.

 

[Helios]

He's a quantity surveyor now?

Seriously. Can you get to that number!

I only can adding a 200% premium for lack of staff and resource.

No kidding, he must have very good sources doing the work remotely or he is an estimator (or, did they get contractors there to survey the resort already).

I think it is interesting that there is info flowing to the media and to their owner...zero......

 

[dioxide45]

He's a quantity surveyor now?

Seriously. Can you get to that number!

I only can adding a 200% premium for lack of staff and resource.

He may be more qualified than us, I am not a surveyor, adjuster or estimator, are you?

It was from the Boston Globe article.

Samuel Hugli, the general manager, said he hoped to reopen the restaurant in two weeks and by March welcome back the roughly 1,000 guests who typically stay there during the high season.

First, he said, they would have to dig out the pool, which remains buried under sand. Other repairs, he estimated, would cost the resort as much as $90 million.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/lifestyl...ml?s_campaign=bostonglobe:socialflow:facebook

Really though, shouldn't the operating fee go down in the next annual MF? They don't have housekeeping, front desk and other staff to pay along with still paying insurance and other base fees, but labor is perhaps the biggest expense at any resort. They don't need supplies. The costs of taxes are still there, but most owners pay that separately. Other than basic carrying costs, there aren't a lot of costs to keep a closed resort running. There will be a SA to cover whatever insurance doesn't.

 

[SMHarman]

He may be more qualified than us, I am not a surveyor, adjuster or estimator, are you?

It was from the Boston Globe article.

Samuel Hugli, the general manager, said he hoped to reopen the restaurant in two weeks and by March welcome back the roughly 1,000 guests who typically stay there during the high season.

First, he said, they would have to dig out the pool, which remains buried under sand. Other repairs, he estimated, would cost the resort as much as $90 million.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/lifestyl...ml?s_campaign=bostonglobe:socialflow:facebook

Really though, shouldn't the operating fee go down in the next annual MF? They don't have housekeeping, front desk and other staff to pay along with still paying insurance and other base fees, but labor is perhaps the biggest expense at any resort. They don't need supplies. The costs of taxes are still there, but most owners pay that separately. Other than basic carrying costs, there aren't a lot of costs to keep a closed resort running. There will be a SA to cover whatever insurance doesn't.

I'm not but I know ground up building is 100-300 per Sq ft.

This is nowhere near that. Many tile floors etc will powerwash down. Many structural parts still intact. Much of the plumbing and electrical in units still intact.

New furniture and appliances plus ripping drywall back past the tide marks drying and refinishing is what I see for most units. That could be a complete gut of the drywall but still you are not pouring new concrete. I saw them hammering through sunset Bay during the conversion. The foundation and walls are sound.

Landscaping could be pricy. Where do you get the plants from! Many ripped up islands.

Then shared services need work but similarly drywall roofs, soft furnishings.

I like your operating budget assessment. The electric / HVAC bill also goes away!

 

[SMHarman]

You know what though.

http://newsofstjohn.com/2013/10/31/westin-announces-35-million-expansion/

Coral Vista apparently cost $35 million.

 

[lizap]

He may be more qualified than us, I am not a surveyor, adjuster or estimator, are you?

It was from the Boston Globe article.

Samuel Hugli, the general manager, said he hoped to reopen the restaurant in two weeks and by March welcome back the roughly 1,000 guests who typically stay there during the high season.

First, he said, they would have to dig out the pool, which remains buried under sand. Other repairs, he estimated, would cost the resort as much as $90 million.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/lifestyle/travel/2017/09/16/enormous-hurdles-ahead-for-virgin-islands-tourism-industry/Uh6dlhddeqahVAaFOY2xiP/story.html?s_campaign=bostonglobe:socialflow:facebook

Really though, shouldn't the operating fee go down in the next annual MF? They don't have housekeeping, front desk and other staff to pay along with still paying insurance and other base fees, but labor is perhaps the biggest expense at any resort. They don't need supplies. The costs of taxes are still there, but most owners pay that separately. Other than basic carrying costs, there aren't a lot of costs to keep a closed resort running. There will be a SA to cover whatever insurance doesn't.

I think Hugli is being extremely optimistic. Just don't see early March happening..

 

[Helios]

He may be more qualified than us, I am not a surveyor, adjuster or estimator, are you?

It was from the Boston Globe article.

Samuel Hugli, the general manager, said he hoped to reopen the restaurant in two weeks and by March welcome back the roughly 1,000 guests who typically stay there during the high season.

First, he said, they would have to dig out the pool, which remains buried under sand. Other repairs, he estimated, would cost the resort as much as $90 million.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/lifestyle/travel/2017/09/16/enormous-hurdles-ahead-for-virgin-islands-tourism-industry/Uh6dlhddeqahVAaFOY2xiP/story.html?s_campaign=bostonglobe:socialflow:facebook

Really though, shouldn't the operating fee go down in the next annual MF? They don't have housekeeping, front desk and other staff to pay along with still paying insurance and other base fees, but labor is perhaps the biggest expense at any resort. They don't need supplies. The costs of taxes are still there, but most owners pay that separately. Other than basic carrying costs, there aren't a lot of costs to keep a closed resort running. There will be a SA to cover whatever insurance doesn't.

Couple of things, I was mainly being sarcastic.

Not sure what Hugli's quals are...I am a Professional Engineer (Civil) licensed in 11 States and two Countries who deals with heavy highway construction. Not the the same type, but you may say I may have a clue about construction costs. $100M sounds high to me, but I haven't seen the damage in person like he has.

The article was dated 9/16 (Pre-Maria) and the damage looks more severe after Maria (from pictures - again I haven't seen it in person). So, let's start panicking because if he is good at estimating, or his sources are, we (WSJ owners) are in real trouble with construction costs well into the 9 figures...

I 100% agree with your last paragraph, I think MF should go down until occupancy resumes. For instance, there is nothing to maintain in SB, the MF cover maintenance not rebuilding/construction. Construction should be covered with SAs and insurance payments.

Just my $0.02...