The recent silver market

[Carolinian]

Gotta love the coin collectors - bless your heart


View attachment 120000

https://www.longtermtrends.com/stocks-vs-gold-comparison/

By using excessive timelines, you obscure more recent trends.
Let's look at 5 year results instead:
Gold UP 189.27%
Silver UP 333.15%
Dow UP 67.53%
S&P UP 111.14%

 

[WaikikiFirst]

By using Dow, you obscure knowing what you are doing. 5 yrs; XLK has a tiny tiny edge over GLD

 

[WaikikiFirst]

using DJIA instead of XLK is about as bright as using Copper instead of Gold

 

[Carolinian]

using DJIA instead of XLK is about as bright as using Copper instead of Gold

I am using the broad market indices that MOST people do, NOT a sector specific ETF that you might prefer.

 

[Brett]

By using excessive timelines, you obscure more recent trends.
Let's look at 5 year results instead:
Gold UP 189.27%
Silver UP 333.15%
Dow UP 67.53%
S&P UP 111.14%

Nope, not even close ........ hint: include capital gains and dividends !

 

[TolmiePeak]

I'm not investing in silver or gold until RENTER shows up and teaches us his "system".

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

The silver bugs have discovered that solar panels average about 20 grams of silver inside

$40 value at $2.00 a gram

If you have panels, watch out for silver thieves

Nope, not even close ........ hint: include capital gains and dividends !

View attachment 120019

Brett, this is utter foolishness. You give one investment a huge head start, and then crow that it "outperforms" the other investment. For ANY timeframe comparison, you need to start BOTH investments at the same starting point. (And don't tell me you can't do it. The source you quote lets you start at any point, even up. You just strip out what you want, when you want, no matter how unfair the resulting chart!)

Here is the "even up" comparison, from the same source, at as close to the same starting point as I can guess. (You didn't say when the starting point was.) I chose August 1998 to date.
This is the TOTAL RETURN chart, including dividends.

BLUE is DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL
RED is S&P 500 index
BLACK is MSCI USA TOTAL RETURN index (including compounded dividends)
GOLD is Gold
SILVER is Silver

 

[WaikikiFirst]

I'm not investing in silver or gold until RENTER shows up and teaches us his "system".

Renter must be long the 2x silver ETF and short the 1x silver ETF and reverse that position every day, and while SLV rose almost 150% in 4 months, he made 0.03% per trading day. Sorry Renter, just trying out some mental gymnastics to keep the brain active.

 

[TolmiePeak]

Renter must be long the 2x silver ETF and short the 1x silver ETF and reverse that position every day, and while SLV rose almost 150% in 4 months, he made 0.03% per trading day. Sorry Renter, just trying out some mental gymnastics to keep the brain active.

I think that those mental gymnastics would cause brain damage.

 

[WaikikiFirst]

I am using the broad market indices that MOST people do, NOT a sector specific ETF that you might prefer.

So many blind spots. So many posts supposedly about "investing".

DJIA is not broad. It is 30 stocks. The even worse thing about it is that it uses a dumbass weighting system. Quick. w/o looking it up, tell us the top 5 stocks in the DJIA.

TV entertainers use the DJIA. Anybody with any brains and any intent on investing well does not use DJIA. There may be somebody who comes up with a stragne strategy and realizes "Hey, strangely enough, DJIA fits this pretty well." That is it for DJIA. TV entertainers and strange outliers and centenarians and gold bugs.

I recently read about a guy who had been lost in the Amazon for 65 years. The first thing he asked after they got him to the hospital was
"May I send a telegram to my family?"
The second thing he asked after they got him to the hospital was
"How's the Dow-Jones doing?" Nobody knew WTH he was talking about,

 

[WaikikiFirst]

NOT a sector specific ETF that you might prefer

but you chose a sector specific commodity. Why don't you compare "commodities" to "stocks"? Here, I will do it for you

And, whaddayaknow, stocks win

 

[ScoopKona]

TV entertainers and strange outliers and centenarians and gold bugs.

Here's what gets me about gold bugs.

I have read loads of rags-to-riches, lower-middle-class-to-riches, and even riches-to-gazillionaire-riches stories from people who made their pile investing in real estate, individual companies (like Amazon or Google -- Nick Hanauer springs instantly to mind); or the kind of slow-but-steady-wins-the-race Index fund investing. I even personally know someone who made millions with crypto. Bought in low. Cashed out. Bought a place on Maui. I don't know what he's up to today because he went off the deep end with fascism. He's probably racing boats.

I've never seen a gold bug post a "I sold my all my gold and bought houses in Aspen, Carmel, and Makena. And now I bounce from place to place as I please. Gas up the Gulfstream, Adrian. I'm in the mood for a mai tai."

Gold bugs are generally more like this:

 

[WaikikiFirst]

I think that those mental gymnastics would cause brain damage.

I get that a lot

 

[Brett]

Brett, this is utter foolishness. You give one investment a huge head start, and then crow that it "outperforms" the other investment. For ANY timeframe comparison, you need to start BOTH investments at the same starting point. (And don't tell me you can't do it. The source you quote lets you start at any point, even up. You just strip out what you want, when you want, no matter how unfair the resulting chart!)

Here is the "even up" comparison, from the same source, at as close to the same starting point as I can guess. (You didn't say when the starting point was.) I chose August 1998 to date.
This is the TOTAL RETURN chart, including dividends.

Almost any longer term time frame total return stock index funds will outperform gold or silver --------- and if you factor in acquisition costs ................

 

[WaikikiFirst]

have read loads of rags-to-riches

Man, you nailed it on multiple levels. I often want to ask them to name all the "Gold Billionaires". I don't, to be polite, and because, well, I'm not and wouldn't want to be a billionaire. Also, there must be a couple? Huh? Hasn't anyone ever levered "to the moon" at just the right time and reached $1,000,000,000?

Again, if any gold bug out there doesn't want to be a billionaire, cool, I agree. But, try to keep the gold hysteria in line with some basic touchstones and some basic understanding of how to "invest" your capital.

 

[ScoopKona]

But, try to keep the gold hysteria in line with some basic touchstones and some basic understanding of how to "invest" your capital.

Here's the thing. They're not dispensing investing advice. (If they were, they'd be all over dividend reinvestment and the effects of compounding. Basic math.) They're proselytizing their gold religion, brought to you by Carl Menger, Ludwig von Mises, and the rest of the Austrian School of Economics.

They HATE it when people talk about the Austrian School -- for the same reason Scientologists hate it when people talk about Xenu, spacecraft which look like DC-8s, and L. Ron Hubbard's questionable stint in the Navy.

Arguing about investment returns feeds into their scheme -- and that scheme is online recruiting. Why else would this go 12 pages on a flippin' timeshare forum? And they're doing this everywhere. The online adult Lego enthusiasts, fans of the movie "Somewhere in Time," and even the Downton Abbey discussion group. Go nearly anywhere, and you'll find an Austrian school loon spouting off about fiat currency and central banks. This is how they recruit. They just need someone to PM them, "Tell me more about how gold works!"

"The Recent Silver Market" is the Austrian schools version of "let me read your e-meter" as seen in strip malls anywhere near a Scientology church.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Almost any longer term time frame total return stock index funds will outperform gold or silver --------- and if you factor in acquisition costs ................



View attachment 120031

Once again, more utter nonsense. Let me discuss them one at at a time.

Storage costs. Have you priced a safe deposit box? A 3x5 box (inches, or 7.4 by 12.5 cms) is usually around $50 a year. In such a box you could easily store 24 nickel tubes (readily available for less than a buck a tube at any coin store or Amazon (4 across, by 2 high, by 3 deep) with some room left for papers. Each tube should hold between 9 and just less than 10 troy ounces of gold. That's 216 to 230+ Troy ounces of gold. Today that is around $928,000 to $1,001,040 worth of stored gold, for $50 a year storage cost. That's the total "annual fees". Look at all the people here who pay more than that for points credit cards.

Management fees - every ETF charges a management fee. Read the fine print of the prospectus. No management fee for lump of metal in a box. (After all, it just sits there. What's to manage?) So add up those management fees over time. Net them against the transaction fees you end up

Transaction costs? Yes, very real. Round trip of maybe 15%. Are you trading?, or are you buying and holding? Remember those management fees? Add them up over, say 20 years. You might find that you paid 3 to 10% along the way, holding that ETF, compared to the 15% "haircut" of buying and selling gold.

 

[Brett]

Actually it's more like .03% for ETF stock index funds

https://www.longtermtrends.com/stocks-vs-gold-comparison/



.

 

[Carolinian]

Almost any longer term time frame total return stock index funds will outperform gold or silver --------- and if you factor in acquisition costs ................



View attachment 120031

Premium and dealer markup are essentially the same thing, counted twice. Some of what I buy on sales has zero of either. Some of what I bought at zero premium in the past month has included US Morgan silver dollars, modern US commemorative silver dollars, and US 90% silver random silver half dollars. Could have gotten US 90% silver quarters. One of my standard purchase gold coins, German 20 marks, I usually get at 2-3%. I just bought some French Louis XVIII gold 20 francs at 2% over spot and those are over 200 years old.

Storage fees? Safe deposit box rent at my credit union is VERY cheap.

Payment processing fees? Only fools pay for gold or silver with a credit card. I use paper check or bank wire, both with no payment processing fee. I get one free bank wire a month from my credit union. One of the bullion companies I deal with issues its own credit card and if you get one and use that, there is no payment processing fee.

Shipping - I think all the major bullion companies offer free shipping on any order over $200.

 

[TolmiePeak]

Once again, more utter nonsense. Let me discuss them one at at a time.

Storage costs. Have you priced a safe deposit box? A 3x5 box (inches, or 7.4 by 12.5 cms) is usually around $50 a year. In such a box you could easily store 24 nickel tubes (readily available for less than a buck a tube at any coin store or Amazon (4 across, by 2 high, by 3 deep) with some room left for papers. Each tube should hold between 9 and just less than 10 troy ounces of gold. That's 216 to 230+ Troy ounces of gold. Today that is around $928,000 to $1,001,040 worth of stored gold, for $50 a year storage cost. That's the total "annual fees". Look at all the people here who pay more than that for points credit cards.

Management fees - every ETF charges a management fee. Read the fine print of the prospectus. No management fee for lump of metal in a box. (After all, it just sits there. What's to manage?) So add up those management fees over time. Net them against the transaction fees you end up

Transaction costs? Yes, very real. Round trip of maybe 15%. Are you trading?, or are you buying and holding? Remember those management fees? Add them up over, say 20 years. You might find that you paid 3 to 10% along the way, holding that ETF, compared to the 15% "haircut" of buying and selling gold.

Why aren’t the buy ask spreads fractions of a point? Someone is getting rich on those spreads.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[ScoopKona]

 

[Carolinian]

Here's the thing. They're not dispensing investing advice. (If they were, they'd be all over dividend reinvestment and the effects of compounding. Basic math.) They're proselytizing their gold religion, brought to you by Carl Menger, Ludwig von Mises, and the rest of the Austrian School of Economics.

They HATE it when people talk about the Austrian School -- for the same reason Scientologists hate it when people talk about Xenu, spacecraft which look like DC-8s, and L. Ron Hubbard's questionable stint in the Navy.

Arguing about investment returns feeds into their scheme -- and that scheme is online recruiting. Why else would this go 12 pages on a flippin' timeshare forum? And they're doing this everywhere. The online adult Lego enthusiasts, fans of the movie "Somewhere in Time," and even the Downton Abbey discussion group. Go nearly anywhere, and you'll find an Austrian school loon spouting off about fiat currency and central banks. This is how they recruit. They just need someone to PM them, "Tell me more about how gold works!"

"The Recent Silver Market" is the Austrian schools version of "let me read your e-meter" as seen in strip malls anywhere near a Scientology church.

Well, no, we are looking to the same value security that the world's central banks do. They set a record this year with their gold buying. What are they quietly but systematically dumping? All of the world's fiat currencies - the dollar, the euro, the pound, the yuan, the yen, you name it. Of course they are careful to do that slowly because it is in nobody's interest to create a run on any fiat currency. But for at least five years, gold acquisition by central banks has been increasing, and their holdings of all fiat currencies, and each one individually has been decreasing.

You may whine that they have all been subverted by "Austrian economics" but they are simply securing the value of their reserves.

You may think you are smarter than the world's central bankers, but you are NOT.

 

[Brett]

.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Putting your claims in bigger type doesn't change the reality.

 

[TolmiePeak]

Isn't gold a fiat metal since it isn't backed by anything that has intrinsic value?