PerryM
TUG Member
- Joined
- Jun 6, 2005
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I agree with your more moderate position rather than the don't buy any timeshare at any price recommendation.
The way to decide to buy or not is this.
Multiply the probability that you believe all timeshares will drop to $1. Multiply the expected reduced value of ROFR that Marriott is likely to exercise times the probablity that that scenario shall return. The sum of the two probabilities = 1.
This will give you the weighted average expected future value of that timeshare. Don't buy it unless you can buy it at 50% of that value.
Perry believes most timeshares will be $1 on eBay with nearly 100% certainty. So, he should purchase at $.50.
I give it 10% that Perry is right and 90% that Marriott will exercise at 50-70% of the past ROFR values.
So, if a Marriott timeshare used to pass ROFR at $20k, I get (10% of $1 + 90% of 60% of 20000)/2 = $5400.
If Marriott was exercising at $20k just 8 months ago, I would have a hard time saying no to something selling for $5400 today.
If I want to own that destination and the maintenance fees aren't too bad, I'd probably be buying it.
What else would you expect a timeshare real estate broker to say?
This isn't rocket science folks - no need to use smoke and mirrors to cloud the fact that the timeshare industry WILL have a hell of a correction - it is not immune from the laws of supply and demand.