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The Marriott ROFR Debate: helpful to sellers or not?

PerryM

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I agree with your more moderate position rather than the don't buy any timeshare at any price recommendation.

The way to decide to buy or not is this.

Multiply the probability that you believe all timeshares will drop to $1. Multiply the expected reduced value of ROFR that Marriott is likely to exercise times the probablity that that scenario shall return. The sum of the two probabilities = 1.

This will give you the weighted average expected future value of that timeshare. Don't buy it unless you can buy it at 50% of that value.

Perry believes most timeshares will be $1 on eBay with nearly 100% certainty. So, he should purchase at $.50.

I give it 10% that Perry is right and 90% that Marriott will exercise at 50-70% of the past ROFR values.

So, if a Marriott timeshare used to pass ROFR at $20k, I get (10% of $1 + 90% of 60% of 20000)/2 = $5400.

If Marriott was exercising at $20k just 8 months ago, I would have a hard time saying no to something selling for $5400 today.

If I want to own that destination and the maintenance fees aren't too bad, I'd probably be buying it.

What else would you expect a timeshare real estate broker to say?

This isn't rocket science folks - no need to use smoke and mirrors to cloud the fact that the timeshare industry WILL have a hell of a correction - it is not immune from the laws of supply and demand.
 

BocaBum99

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What else would you expect a timeshare real estate broker to say?

This isn't rocket science folks - no need to use smoke and mirrors to cloud the fact that the timeshare industry WILL have a hell of a correction - it is not immune from the laws of supply and demand.

I am recommending that people sell their Wyndham points. Does that mean I voluntarily inactivated my license today? Do you have any other arguments? Do you have any other buy/sell recommendations? I'd love to take the opposite side of that trade to test out my new PerryM contrarian indictor.

I agree that the timeshare market will have a tremendous correction. It's been happening all year in 2008. It will continue in 2009. But, that doesn't mean a) that someone can't make money in it and b) that there aren't really good deals out there. The best business to be in today in timesharing is the closing company business. Their volume will probably double this coming year.

In fact, there is no better time to buy when Perry says to sell.
 
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PerryM

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zero is zero

I am recommending that people sell their Wyndham points. Does that mean I voluntarily inactivated my license today? Do you have any other arguments? Do you have any other buy/sell recommendations? I'd love to take the opposite side of that trade to test out my new PerryM contrarian indictor.

I agree that the timeshare market will have a tremendous correction. It's been happening all year in 2008. It will continue in 2009. But, that doesn't mean a) that someone can't make money in it and b) that there aren't really good deals out there. The best business to be in today in timesharing is the closing company business. Their volume will probably double this coming year.

In fact, there is no better time to buy when Perry says to sell.

I'm recommend that folks DO NOTHING.

I understand that timeshare real estate brokers make money:
  • Buying a timeshare
  • Selling a timeshare
.

But they just don't make any money when folks listen to Perry and don't buy or sell a timeshare right now.

I fully understand the rage.
 

BocaBum99

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I'm recommend that folks DO NOTHING.

I understand that timeshare real estate brokers make money:
  • Buying a timeshare
  • Selling a timeshare
.

But they just don't make any money when folks listen to Perry and don't buy or sell a timeshare right now.

I fully understand the rage.

They also don't make money if they don't buy, sell or broker the timeshares in question. I wish they did. That would be a fanastic new business.

Do nothing is fine with me, but why would you recommend standing pat if you believe it will tank to $1. It seems to me it would be best to sell it yourself so no brokers make any money and then buy them back at $1. If you want to vacation in the interim period, rent for below MF.

It sounds to me like you are not as confident about your position as you puff on these boards. Otherwise, you are making a bad personal decision.
 

Latravel

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I think if you are buying a timeshare for enjoyment only, as everyone should, I would buy if you are happy with the price. If I see a platinum selling at $3,000, I would feel very good at that price even if the price fell more. Really, what's the big deal if the price fell another $500? It already fell tens of thousands of dollars from retail!
 

BocaBum99

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I think if you are buying a timeshare for enjoyment only, as everyone should, I would buy if you are happy with the price. If I see a platinum selling at $3,000, I would feel very good at that price even if the price fell more. Really, what's the big deal if the price fell another $500? It already fell tens of thousands of dollars from retail!

Exactly. In additon, I think there is a higher probability of an upside surprise than a downside surprise.
 

PerryM

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They also don't make money if they don't buy, sell or broker the timeshares in question. I wish they did. That would be a fanastic new business.

Do nothing is fine with me, but why would you recommend standing pat if you believe it will tank to $1. It seems to me it would be best to sell it yourself so no brokers make any money and then buy them back at $1. If you want to vacation in the interim period, rent for below MF.

It sounds to me like you are not as confident about your position as you puff on these boards. Otherwise, you are making a bad personal decision.

Our timeshares are used for vacations and to make a few bucks in rent to pay the MFs.

We have just the right number of timeshares for our use - thank you.

However, if my prediction of $1 Platinum Marriott's comes true we will reevaluate our timeshare portfolio.

But I don't need a timeshare real estate broker to handle the transactions - sorry BB; no joy here.
 

dioxide45

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The proof is there now.

I think the proof is out there right now that ROFR is not helping protect prices. Sure people will say "butttt... Marriott isn't exercising right now." That doesn't matter, the option of ROFR is still there. There is no guaranty with ROFR. Is is there for Marriott's and only Marriott's benefit.

Marriott can still exercise ROFR and they have fairly recently at what people would agree is fairly high prices. I don't see MGV 2BR platinum going for over $12K on E-Bay.
 
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dioxide45

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John, its a really simple concept that you cannot seem to grasp. Today there are five resale purchases and no Marriott purchases. Tomorrow there will be five resale purchases and possibly 5, 10 or 20 Marriott purchases.
Terry

The thing is there is still only 5 resales in both scenarios. The only difference is that Marriott is getting 2 and the other three are going to the original seller. Sure the original buyers on those ROFR'd sales might go back out and offer more, though if they follow the proper rule of thumb they will offer even less.
 

m61376

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I think the proof is out there right now that ROFR is not helping protect prices. Sure people will say "butttt... Marriott isn't exercising right now." That doesn't matter, the option of ROFR is still there. There is no guaranty with ROFR. Is is there for Marriott's and only Marriott's benefit.

Marriott can still exercise ROFR and they have fairly recently at what people would agree is fairly high prices. I don't see MGV 2BR platinum going for over $12K on E-Bay.

The flip side to the argument though is that ROFR only helps protect prices when it is actively being exercised. The mere threat of a remote possibility of it being exercised is not enough- it needs to be actively exercised for it to protect prices.

There will always be desperate sellers and, unfortunately, there are even more in this economy. Regardless of the presence of ROFR, there will be personal forces that will cause anxious sellers to sell at below market value in order to sell fast. Prior to 2 months or so (maybe 3...I am not sure when the credit crunch forced a change in Marriott's hand) Marriott was the only one to benefit (as you said, Marriott was the real beneficiary of ROFR). However, a buyer who really wanted a unit and was buying resale in order to save a few dollars over buying directly- but one who had made up his/her ind to buy- would look for another unit and, yes, oftentimes be willing to pay more so as to be able to finalize the purchase.

I understand you maintain that a smart buyer would just keep on offering less. However, that so-called "smart" buyer would stand a good chance of never consummating a purchase and, if the buyer wanted the unit, would likely offer more. That scenario has been well documented many times here. There are savvy buyers who keep on playing the game and hoping that one will slip through ROFR (and oftentimes have lucked out) but I maintain that most anxious buyers will ultimately up their price if they really want the resort and have lost one or more to Marriott. For example, when I bought a unit 2 years ago I did initially get what I knew was an incredible price and Marriott nabbed it. I wanted to buy so I held out to find another good price, but still a few thousand more than the first one. I still paid much less than other resale units at the time, so I got a good price.

What ROFR does, in my opinion, is it prevents those fire sales from becoming the expected norm. Once buyers realize that they can benefit from a desperate seller, savvy buyers will hold out for those steals. And that's exactly what is happening now. I think most of the Ebay buyers are more timeshare savvy and are willing to walk away from the deal unless they can nab it at a bargain basement price, because they are aware that they will likely be able to acquire the unit. Once this scenario happens, it becomes a downward spiral, because the next person wants even a better buy than the last.

Time will tell who is right in this argument. If Marriott starts exercising ROFR again (which I firmly believe they will) and if we then see prices slowly begin to restabilize and escalate, then that will be proof enough.
 

m61376

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The thing is there is still only 5 resales in both scenarios. The only difference is that Marriott is getting 2 and the other three are going to the original seller. Sure the original buyers on those ROFR'd sales might go back out and offer more, though if they follow the proper rule of thumb they will offer even less.

That's assuming that the original 5 buyers don't keep on looking and aren't willing to pay more for a unit that they really want. I think the point being made here is that, if there are 5 buyers who have decided to buy 5 properties at the best price they can get them at, these 5 people will keep on trying until they can close on a deal, even if they have to pay a little more and can't get their initial bargain. If Marriott has nabbed a few along the way, then more than 5 seller may be happy.
 

AwayWeGo

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[triennial - points]
Except Price Protection Doesn't Really Happen.

The mere threat of a remote possibility of it being exercised is not enough- it needs to be actively exercised for it to protect prices.
Even then ROFR does not protect prices.

All ROFR does is give the timeshare company the exclusive right to snap up the low-price resales that happen now & then anyway.

ROFR = ROFL.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​
 
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BocaBum99

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ROFR does NOT protect prices. All ROFR does is artificially prop up resale prices when it is being exercised above what the nominal prices would be without it. Anyone who disagrees with this statement does not understand the very basic economic principal of supply and demand and the clearing of markets based on price.

The supply and demand curve is what it is and changes with environmental conditions. The resale price is the price where the number of buyers equals the number of sellers. When ROFR is being exercised, Marriott is putting it's thumb on the demand side of the scale thereby shifting the balance and increasing prices.

If prices collapse to 1/4 of their previous value, that's because there is an influx of sellers who are willing to accept a lower price and a reduced number of buyers at a higher level. No matter how much Marriott buys back, it can't prevent the price from falling when the shift is as dramatic as it has been. However, the amount it falls will be less if Marriott is exercising. Conversely, prices will fall more dramatically when ROFR stops being exercised. The market price will then adjust to reflect the real supply and demand curve of the market with Marriott's thumb off the scale.

So, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that ROFR acts as a temporary and artificial price support when it is being exercised. And, there is absolutely a way to leverage and capitalize on opportunities that manifest themselves both when Marriott exercises and when they stop. The price action is very predictable.
 

m61376

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Boca-
You are right- I didn't literally mean that it protected prices- I guess it was a poor choice of words- actually, you expressed what I was trying to say better: it "prop up resale prices when it is being exercised above what the nominal prices would be without it." What I was trying to say (poorly I guess) is that it prevents the occasional fire sale- the desperate seller- from setting a new price floor to the general marketplace.

Of course supply and demand ultimately determines pricing, regardless of ROFR, but even in good times there is the occasional aberration- the desperate seller- and ROFR does help prevent those sales from setting a new baseline. If people can't actually buy at prices which may be several thousand below the general market, it lowers their expectations of doing so and, if they really want the unit anyway, forces them in a sense to pay whatever the fair market value is.
 

timeos2

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For 1 winner in the game there are 10 or more losers. Play the winning hand

Boca-
You are right- I didn't literally mean that it protected prices- I guess it was a poor choice of words- actually, you expressed what I was trying to say better: it "prop up resale prices when it is being exercised above what the nominal prices would be without it." What I was trying to say (poorly I guess) is that it prevents the occasional fire sale- the desperate seller- from setting a new price floor to the general marketplace.

Of course supply and demand ultimately determines pricing, regardless of ROFR, but even in good times there is the occasional aberration- the desperate seller- and ROFR does help prevent those sales from setting a new baseline. If people can't actually buy at prices which may be several thousand below the general market, it lowers their expectations of doing so and, if they really want the unit anyway, forces them in a sense to pay whatever the fair market value is.


Sorry but the logic fails when you say the price rises. Only the one potential buyer knows that ROFR stole the deal at say $5000 - all others have seen that price and that becomes the bar. No one is going to willingly offer $6000 thus those that try to sell at that price get zero offers (unless the actions of a slick, timeshare weasel like broker/agent talks the unwitting into "beating ROFR by raising the price". Talk about anti-consumer and virtual fraud).

So to get the only thing that will trigger ROFR - a real serious offer - that price will have to be lowered - not raised as Perry would suggest - or the unit will languish for sale forever. Once it's lowered that's all the seller will get (we keep repeating that but it somehow goes over the head of the ROFR believers) and the buyer gets shut out. Are they going to offer more? Only those that MUST have that resort (few and far between) or that are silly enough to play the game. Most will drop out or simply make another offer equal or less to the next seller. The developer never mention's the cheap sale as that lowers expectations even more so the marketplace see's a $5000 sale gone and $6000 offers going unsold. How does that help raise prices?

And since any price increase is, even by those that think ROFR somehow raises prices for the average seller (are there any that actually believe that or is it a sales front?), admitted that it is a "temporary, artificial price" where does that leave anyone silly enough to pay a premium when THEY decide to unload it? Getting a lower price of course unless the ROFR stars happen to align on the second Tuesday of that week and they get nearly what the artificial price they mistakenly paid was. Chances of that happening? Very low. Chances of them not recovering what they paid (just like most other timeshares ROFR or not)? Good to Excellent. Effect of ROFR? Negative for all but the developer (another point we all seem to agree on).

So why defend the un-defendable? Best to buy only at non-ROFR resorts OR only when ROFR is being ignored, as it is now. And buy to use with the assumption you will be lucky to get anything close to the price you pay in any future sale. Any other time or playing the ROFR game you likely will be on the sucker side of a sucker bet. Not where anyone should try to be.
 

AwayWeGo

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Agreed. It's Too Much To Pay . . .

So why defend the un-defendable?
. . . just to keep the riffraff out.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

 

m61376

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I think one of the real disagreements here is whether people will walk away when they can't get the bargain basement deal or whether they will be willing to raise their offer. My contention is that, while I knew what the going market rate was for the unit I bought and I was more than willing to take advantage of a desperate seller (gee...that sounds awful, doesn't it?), when Marriott nabbed my "steal" I was willing to pay more the next time around, knowing that I was getting a good buy (the shopper in me made sure it was still at the bottom of the market at the time), but significantly more than my "steal." There have been many posts by others who have acted accordingly.

On the other hand, John and others contend that having a unit nabbed from them makes them walk away. I assume there are those that share those sentiments as well and, admittedly, if ROFR affects most buyers that way I would agree it would have a negative impact. However, I don't think most buyers react that way. Personally, I think most buyers, once they make the decision to buy, if they can afford it will pay a little more if they aren't able to get their bargain price. Human nature is such that people get vested in what they want to buy and, while more than happy to pay a lower price, will oftentimes increase their offering in order to close the deal.

Furthermore, most resale buyers aren't Tuggers and most are not aware of the bargain basement priced units. They contact brokers who simply tell them that such low-ball offers will never pass ROFR, and support it by telling prospective buyers that they had or know of similar units that were bought back by Marriott at that or even a higher price. Even now, in this market, I had a resale broker who has been recommended over and over again on Tug play essentially that game with me, when I was interested in a unit but wanted to pay only what an identical unit had just sold for on Ebay. And, even though everyone here has said that all the great deals have been passing ROFR lately, he was nevertheless insistent that such a low price would fail. I would venture to guess that sales line from resale brokers is effective with most buyers and causes them to offer more if they really want to buy (and, after all, they are still saving so much over retail developer's prices that it still seems like a good buy).
 

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Sorry but the logic fails when you say the price rises. Only the one potential buyer knows that ROFR stole the deal at say $5000 - all others have seen that price and that becomes the bar. No one is going to willingly offer $6000 thus those that try to sell at that price get zero offers (unless the actions of a slick, timeshare weasel like broker/agent talks the unwitting into "beating ROFR by raising the price". Talk about anti-consumer and virtual fraud).

There you go again. You claim that "No one is going to willingly offer $6000" when they lose a deal to ROFR at $5000. M61376 just said that he did just that.

So, once again you are proven wrong beyond any reasonable doubt.

The ONLY way you are right is if M61376 is lying. Do you believe that to be true? Or, will you concede that you are wrong on this point?
 

thinze3

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... Personally, I think most buyers, once they make the decision to buy, if they can afford it will pay a little more if they aren't able to get their bargain price. Human nature is such that people get vested in what they want to buy and, while more than happy to pay a lower price, will oftentimes increase their offering in order to close the deal.

Furthermore, most resale buyers aren't Tuggers and most are not aware of the bargain basement priced units. They contact brokers who simply tell them that such low-ball offers will never pass ROFR, and support it by telling prospective buyers that they had or know of similar units that were bought back by Marriott at that or even a higher price ...

I agree with this statement and personally do not know anyone who would walk away simply because a developer ROFR'd a unit from them. The buyer will try again on another unit, most likely with a slightly higher price. Before long experienced sellers like Seth would be advising buyers on ROFR price points keeping many buyers from making lowball offers.

Terry
 

thinze3

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Sorry but the logic fails when you say the price rises. Only the one potential buyer knows that ROFR stole the deal at say $5000 - all others have seen that price and that becomes the bar. No one is going to willingly offer $6000 ...


And "No one" would NEVER own that Marriott unit!
 

BocaBum99

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(unless the actions of a slick, timeshare weasel like broker/agent talks the unwitting into "beating ROFR by raising the price". Talk about anti-consumer and virtual fraud).

Your parenthetical statement suggests that it is possible for a potential buyer to raise their offer price from $5000 to $6000 if Marriott buys back the unit from $5000, but only if an unethical broker/agent somehow fraudulently gets them to do this.

Are you serious? So, you are saying that Seth Nock is a criminal? He is the single largest Marriott broker I know. Please, I defy you to find ONE person out of the THOUSANDS who believes that Seth cheated them. Hundreds of them post on this board.

I ask you to retract your slanderous remarks.

Seth and many other Marriott resale brokers provide a value added service to potential buyers to help them navigate through the ROFR process. And, they can often times get them deals better than they can get for themselves. This is the OVERWHELMING response you will get from resale broker clients.

Most resale buyers who use a broker and thankful that they found the resale broker who saved them thousands of dollars off of the developer price for virtually the same product.
 

thinze3

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... Sure the original buyers on those ROFR'd sales might go back out and offer more, though if they follow the proper rule of thumb they will offer even less.

If Marriott has made up its mind to purchase all units at that price or below in lieu of spending double that for new construction, that poor "original buyer" will never own that Marriott, now would he. :D

Terry
 

timeos2

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Once you make a wrong assumption everything else is wrong as well

I think one of the real disagreements here is whether people will walk away when they can't get the bargain basement deal or whether they will be willing to raise their offer. My contention is that, while I knew what the going market rate was for the unit I bought and I was more than willing to take advantage of a desperate seller (gee...that sounds awful, doesn't it?), when Marriott nabbed my "steal" I was willing to pay more the next time around, knowing that I was getting a good buy (the shopper in me made sure it was still at the bottom of the market at the time), but significantly more than my "steal." There have been many posts by others who have acted accordingly.

On the other hand, John and others contend that having a unit nabbed from them makes them walk away. I assume there are those that share those sentiments as well and, admittedly, if ROFR affects most buyers that way I would agree it would have a negative impact. However, I don't think most buyers react that way. Personally, I think most buyers, once they make the decision to buy, if they can afford it will pay a little more if they aren't able to get their bargain price. Human nature is such that people get vested in what they want to buy and, while more than happy to pay a lower price, will oftentimes increase their offering in order to close the deal.

So now I'm curious. How do you feel knowing you went ahead and played the game and now, today, if you wanted to sell Marriott has taken the ball and gone home leaving you with a week you paid an inflated price for due to their games? What good is a price prop if it isn't there when actually needed? Hope you REALLY wanted that week as you paid too much and now aren't likely to ever have a chance of recovering it based on misrepresentations from Marriott and resellers. If you did just want that week and didn't care what you paid or what the future value might be (a perfectly legitimate approach to a personal decision about value) then you did OK.

Furthermore, most resale buyers aren't Tuggers and most are not aware of the bargain basement priced units. They contact brokers who simply tell them that such low-ball offers will never pass ROFR, and support it by telling prospective buyers that they had or know of similar units that were bought back by Marriott at that or even a higher price. Even now, in this market, I had a resale broker who has been recommended over and over again on Tug play essentially that game with me, when I was interested in a unit but wanted to pay only what an identical unit had just sold for on Ebay. And, even though everyone here has said that all the great deals have been passing ROFR lately, he was nevertheless insistent that such a low price would fail. I would venture to guess that sales line from resale brokers is effective with most buyers and causes them to offer more if they really want to buy (and, after all, they are still saving so much over retail developer's prices that it still seems like a good buy).

Exactly what I'm saying above. Lke Wyndham VIP, ROFR is a house of cards with zero guarantees that plays to the greed of a developer at the direct cost to owners/buyers. And I'm in full agreement that any reseller who preaches the ROFR nonsense as a reason to pay more is barely a step above the common retail weasel hawking 50%+ premium price for nothing but hot air. It is a self serving sham that costs the very buyers they claim to be supposedly helping.

Basically the best advice is and will remain to stay away from any resort/system with ROFR. Second best is always bid less on any ROFR week and hold out until you get your price or walk away. It was not just luck that anyone who listened to that advice in the past year has done very well if they purchased and those who ignored it paid too much. While anything can happen the likelihood is that going forward those that continue to follow that path will be happy owners of low priced weeks they desire and those that ignore it with the idea that somehow they will be guaranteeing themselves a better resale later will be burned. Only time will tell but I sure know the side I feel will prevail. Only those who actually try to sell a ROFR week are eligible to report back as all the theoretical values people love to talk about are meaningless until the deal materializes and closes. I shudder when I hear so many talk about how a ski week or a beach week "is worth more now than when I bought it" or "The developer price is up 30% since I bought" as if that somehow translates to a higher value for their week. It is instantly obvious they have never actually tried to sell it or ever dealt with ROFR as a seller. Only then does the hard truth hit home.
 

BocaBum99

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So to get the only thing that will trigger ROFR - a real serious offer - that price will have to be lowered - not raised as Perry would suggest - or the unit will languish for sale forever. Once it's lowered that's all the seller will get (we keep repeating that but it somehow goes over the head of the ROFR believers) and the buyer gets shut out. Are they going to offer more? Only those that MUST have that resort (few and far between) or that are silly enough to play the game. Most will drop out or simply make another offer equal or less to the next seller. The developer never mention's the cheap sale as that lowers expectations even more so the marketplace see's a $5000 sale gone and $6000 offers going unsold. How does that help raise prices?

First of all, I think you may be labelling me as an ROFR true believer. That's fine. What I actually am is a scientist. I develop theories based on various economic principles, then I run experiments to test my hypotheses and I accept what I see with my own eyes are the reality instead of the make believe world of what is only in my head. So, technically, this doesn't make me an ROFR true believer. On the othe hand, you simply ignore all of the evidence to the contrary and make blanket statements that are so easy to disprove that you must constantly retract your statements like you will certainly do on this thread regarding criminal behavior of brokers and the existence of at least one person who would try more than once to buy a Marriott. So, the label of true believer is more aptly descriptive of you.

Secondly, you bring up a valid point about what happens to sellers when ROFR is exercised. What happens is that some potential buyers who would normally make offers on lower priced units will drop out of the market. That is a real drop in demand for product. But, only for units at the lower end of the demand curve. Sellers in this predicament either keep what they have, turn to a PCC or someone else and give away their unit or work with a resale broker who knows the market and has access to buyers at the higer end of the demand curve. In either case, the active buyers market who have a price point higher than ROFR will never see those units. So, those buyers will only have access to those units and will buy at those prices.

Here is the KEY point. THOSE SELLERS WHO PARTNER WITH RESALE BROKERS OR WHO ARE EDUCATED ENOUGH THEMSELVES ON THE EXISTENCE AND LEVELS AT WHICH PRICES ARE BEING ROFR'ED AT SELL THEIR UNITS AT OR ABOVE THE ROFR PRICE WHICH AS I HAVE ALREADY PROVEN CAN BE HIGHER THAN THE NOMINAL RESALE PRICE.

The unwitting sellers who do NOT know how to work the system to make ROFR work for them get hosed. So, as is the case with just about everything in timesharing, those with the knowledge of how to work the system win big time and those who don't lose big time.

So, ROFR is absolutely a positive factor for all knowledgeable timeshare buyers and sellers who know who to work the ROFR system. To play the game, you can learn it yourself by mining these message boards for information or you can simply work with a knowledgable resale broker who is skilled in this area.
 

timeos2

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Creating little scenerios in a controlled way isn't the real world

There you go again. You claim that "No one is going to willingly offer $6000" when they lose a deal to ROFR at $5000. M61376 just said that he did just that.

So, once again you are proven wrong beyond any reasonable doubt.

The ONLY way you are right is if M61376 is lying. Do you believe that to be true? Or, will you concede that you are wrong on this point?

So it should be "No informed buyer will willingly offer $6000". Maybe one that is getting bad advice or gets caught up in the auction mentality of "I gotta win" but no average, knowledgeable buyer is going to offer more than the going rate for any product. The fact that some do on a rare occasion doesn't disprove the theory but goes to show people can and are fooled into bad purchases. Never done that? We all have. Go back to the sticker price car buyer or the rack rate hotel guest. But hopefully you learn and don't make the mistake a second time (or a second, higher bid on a ROFR property).
 
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