The Marriott ROFR Debate: helpful to sellers or not?

[dioxide45]

Cops don't need to be on every street corner, radar guns in hand, to instill fear into the hearts of speeders - just random enforcement is all that is needed to impact drivers behavior.

The ROFR is there when the developer needs it and if the developer doesn't need it only folks like us can tell the difference-for a while. If folks know the traffic cops are busy doing other things they speed.

The important thing is that some developers do work with owners to prop up resales if it makes sense. Some developers don't work with owners but against them to kill resale prices. Marriott seems to want to work with their owners - it makes sense to them.

I think you backed up my point. If random enforcement of speeding keeps people from speeding then random enforcement or the threat of enforcement should keep prices up?

That isn't making sense in today’s market. The threat of random enforcement of ROFR is always there with all resorts that have this. Marriott has the ability at any time to exercise ROFR. The threat of ROFR isn't doing anything to prop up prices right now. So the mere presence of ROFR means nothing.

Now if Marriott were always exercising ROFR at x price, then the market would have to meet that x price or the sale wouldn't happen. That may help keep prices up, but again it might not because the possibility is there that Marriott won't exercise ROFR.

Marriott isn't working with their owners right now to prop resale prices up. The proof is with the prices these weeks are selling for today. I don't think this can be argued otherwise.

 

[m61376]

That isn't making sense in today’s market. The threat of random enforcement of ROFR is always there with all resorts that have this. Marriott has the ability at any time to exercise ROFR. The threat of ROFR isn't doing anything to prop up prices right now. So the mere presence of ROFR means nothing.

N

But today the savvy buyers realize it is an empty threat and I think that makes a big difference.

With or without ROFR there has and always will be an anxious or even desperate seller, but ROFR prevents that from becoming the new threshold for sales. What we have today is a combination of economic factors creating more desperate sellers coupled with nothing preventing buyers from purchasing at those bargain basement prices. Savvy buyers peruse the market and know what the bottom pricing has been, and since they have the potential to nab a unit at that price, they won't go higher. If Marriott was buying back units, then buyers might bid a little higher to get what they want, rather than taking advantage of someone else's need to sell. Let's face it- many of us bottom feeders could afford to pay a little more, but it is human nature to try to get the best deal we can. I think ROFR prevents the occasional desperate seller from setting a new price-mark for savvy buyers.

 

[AwayWeGo]

Sure It Can Be Argued Otherwise -- Just The Reverse, In Fact.

Marriott isn't working with their owners right now to prop resale prices up. The proof is with the prices these weeks are selling for today. I don't think this can be argued otherwise.

Prices didn't tank because the timeshare company quit exercising ROFR.

The timeshare company quit exercising ROFR because prices tanked.

Plus, back when the timeshare company was exercising ROFR, that didn't help owners -- i.e., did not keep resale prices from going "too low."

Owners (sometimes) still got hosed when they sold off their weeks. All that happened -- happens -- via ROFR is that nobody but the timeshare company gets to buy the big bargains.

ROFR = ROFL.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

 

[Pit]

I think you backed up my point. If random enforcement of speeding keeps people from speeding then random enforcement or the threat of enforcement should keep prices up?

That isn't making sense in today’s market. The threat of random enforcement of ROFR is always there with all resorts that have this. Marriott has the ability at any time to exercise ROFR. The threat of ROFR isn't doing anything to prop up prices right now. So the mere presence of ROFR means nothing.

Now if Marriott were always exercising ROFR at x price, then the market would have to meet that x price or the sale wouldn't happen. That may help keep prices up, but again it might not because the possibility is there that Marriott won't exercise ROFR.

Marriott isn't working with their owners right now to prop resale prices up. The proof is with the prices these weeks are selling for today. I don't think this can be argued otherwise.

The current situation illustrates what many have been correctly stating for years - ROFR does not protect the owner from price declines. As we all know, random enforcement does not prevent speeding either.

 

[PerryM]

The current situation illustrates what many have been correctly stating for years - ROFR does not protect the owner from price declines. As we all know, random enforcement does not prevent speeding either.

True, but without it we would have the German Autobahn right outside your front door - it does impact human behavior - lots of behavior.

 

[dioxide45]

If Marriott was buying back units, then buyers might bid a little higher to get what they want, rather than taking advantage of someone else's need to sell. Let's face it- many of us bottom feeders could afford to pay a little more, but it is human nature to try to get the best deal we can. I think ROFR prevents the occasional desperate seller from setting a new price-mark for savvy buyers.

The important thing here is "If". The thing is that there is no guaranty. We purchased a week in 2007 when ROFR was being more randomly exercised. That may have helped that seller then get the price we paid, but it didn't do anything to help me if I were a seller today. I may be lucky to get half of what was paid. So this is a good example of where ROFR hurt me as a buyer and could also hurt me as a seller. It also did nothing to prop up the potential selling price I could receive. Just because they are not exercising ROFR, you can't take the presence of it out of the logic. ROFR was there when we bought in 2007 and is there again today.

It is also important to note that the market was far different when we bought in 2007, the stock market had not yet peaked and everything was "humming" along. One could put a better argument forward that the current economic environment is what is effecting resale prices and not ROFR not being exercised.

 

[PerryM]

Look out below.....

I think that everyone will find out just how much the ROFR has helped keep resale prices higher as Marriott declines the vast majority of resales. Then when they start to exercise more of them the resale price will all of a sudden stabilize. (Some here will shout "Coincidence" - I can just hear it now)

However expect Marriott to lower the ROFR to a much lower point – if I was Marriott I’d drop it to 25% - but that’s just me. 25% might seem a godsend at that time. But in any case kiss 60% goodbye. (Marriott has already learned that they can get lots of resales for much less than 60% of current sales price)

 

[dioxide45]

I think that everyone will find out just how much the ROFR has helped keep resale prices higher as Marriott declines the vast majority of resales. Then when they start to exercise more of them the resale price will all of a sudden stabilize.

However expect Marriott to lower the ROFR to a much lower point – if I was Marriott I’d drop it to 25% - but that’s just me. 25% might seem a godsend at that time. But in any case kiss 60% good bye.

Where did the magical number of 60% come from? When I bought in 2007 before the peak, my purchase passed at 37.5% of the current retail prices at that time. Now when Marriott sells a week for you they keep 40% and you get 60%, but I don't think a fixed number ever existed for ROFR.

 

[PerryM]

Where did the magical number of 60% come from? When I bought in 2007 before the peak, my purchase passed at 37.5% of the current retail prices at that time. Now when Marriott sells a week for you they keep 40% and you get 60%, but I don't think a fixed number ever existed for ROFR.

Back when we bought our first MountainSide (1998 I believe) the ROFR was 75%. That number came from the salesreps. The 60% is empirical evidence when we sold our 5 Marriotts 3+ years ago. I haven't kept up and don't know what Marriott has been exercising lately - it could be much less.

I believe a database is being kept here that will give the correct answer - mine's 3+ years old.

In any case Marriott probably will offer more for high demand Platinum holiday weeks and much less for Silver mud weeks (if any even exists). I think we'd have to settle for an average of all ROFRs to gleam anything (trend wise).

 

[BocaBum99]

ROFR is primarily a tool that the resort developer uses to buy back the lowest priced inventory on the market. When the developer uses it for that purpose, it creates the illusion that buying prices are higher than they are. ROFR is not BOLR (buyer of last resort). If ROFR and BOLR are combined, then the developer is actually truly propping up resale prices. If the resort developer is not compelled to buyback, then some sellers end up getting far less than the price at which Marriott will likely exercise.

What buyers see is that at every turn, all they can do is purchase timeshares above a certain price point. So, the savvy buyers are conditioned to purchase at or above a certain level which varies based on economic conditions, but it is a knowable level. So, saavy buyers such as those on this message board perceive it as higher prices. The problem with this logic is that buyers on this board have no idea how many deals are bought back by the developer for prices dramatically lower than the expected exercise price. It is probably significant. For instance, let's say that Marriott is exercising ROFR at $30k and below consistently over the past 3 months. Members of this board will never see the deals that Marriot exercises at $5-10,000.

That said, there is another behavior that ROFR creates which is to game the fact that the developer is buying back at certain prices. If a smart and sophisticated timesharing person learns the game, they can get the developer to buy back lots of units at about their expected exercise price. But, it is a game not without risk.

So, does ROFR help sellers? The answer is sometimes yes. Sometimes no. It hurts sellers who don't know how to find brokers who know the exercise prices. Those unknowledgable sellers sell for a price that is lower than they could have received. It helps knowledgable sellers who team with brokers to get as close to the exercise price as possible.

ROFR, it is absolutely a distortion of the market. Free market economics predicts that such ROFR would have negative effects on market participants and price. But, I no longer believe that distortion is any worse than the fact that timeshare resales is far from an efficient market. On a given day, someone will buy a timeshare for $2000 when another person will buy the exact same timeshare for $20,000. That inefficiecy of the market is what must be compared against the real impact of ROFR. After having seen it at work, I have changed my position. I believe that ROFR is a net positive rather than a net negative to the timeshare industry.

 

[BocaBum99]

Does the answer include multiple transactions?

-David

Very good. Yes, it does.

 

[cp73]

That said, there is another behavior that ROFR creates which is to game the fact that the developer is buying back at certain prices. If a smart and sophisticated timesharing person learns the game, they can get the developer to buy back lots of units at about their expected exercise price. But, it is a game not without risk.

Can you please explain this further.

 

[PerryM]

Two things at work here folks...

Marriott has two things intertwined here:

1) The ROFR
2) Their resale business

Marriott will gladly be your real estate broker and charge 40% commission to do so (If the resort is close to being sold out). However, if the resale market is below that 60% that the owner gets for a resale folks will buy from eBay for pennies on the dollar.

This is the SOLE reason Marriott uses the ROFR – to buy the cheapest units available for their sales offices. As a side benefit Marriott owners enjoy an artificially higher resale rate and Marriott acting as your broker.

During these times folks aren’t buying timeshares so no need to worry about folks buying $1 Marriotts on eBay. A timeshare comes with a lot of baggage – they are hard to understand , hard to make reservations, hard to maintain (MF) and hard to sell when you want to get out.

Once this relationship of sales in the sales office is linked to resale prices in eBay you then understand why Marriott uses the ROFR if it is to their advantage and why the ROFR closely follows the percentage Marriott owners get when Marriott sells their unit in their sales office.


Expect both the ROFR and the percentage you get from Marriott resales to plummet - there is a glut of timeshares up for sale.

 

[BocaBum99]

Marriott has two things intertwined here:

1) The ROFR
2) Their resale business

Marriott will gladly be your real estate broker and charge 40% commission to do so (If the resort is close to being sold out). However, if the resale market is below that 60% that the owner gets for a resale folks will buy from eBay for pennies on the dollar.

This is the SOLE reason Marriott uses the ROFR – to buy the cheapest units available for their sales offices. As a side benefit Marriott owners enjoy an artificially higher resale rate and Marriott acting as your broker.

During these times folks aren’t buying timeshares so no need to worry about folks buying $1 Marriotts on eBay. A timeshare comes with a lot of baggage – they are hard to understand , hard to make reservations, hard to maintain (MF) and hard to sell when you want to get out.

Once this relationship of sales in the sales office is linked to resale prices in eBay you then understand why Marriott uses the ROFR if it is to their advantage and why the ROFR closely follows the percentage Marriott owners get when Marriott sells their unit in their sales office.


Expect both the ROFR and the percentage you get from Marriott resales to plummet - there is a glut of timeshares up for sale.

You are missing the most important element which caused the entire timeshare crisis in the first place.... the availablity of financing.

Marriott is not exercising a lot of ROFR because they don't have the capital to make the purchases any more. They are preserving cash so that they can continue operations. So, even though they can profit more handsomely if they exercise ROFR, it is in their short term benefit to leave those assets on other owner's balance sheets while they just take a commission. Lower profit, but much higher return on capital.

Once credit markets are restored, timeshare sales will resume. Probably at a much lower annual rate and at lower prices. But, I believe they will continue again.

 

[PerryM]

What credit problem?

You are missing the most important element which caused the entire timeshare crisis in the first place.... the availablity of financing.

Marriott is not exercising a lot of ROFR because they don't have the capital to make the purchases any more. They are preserving cash so that they can continue operations. So, even though they can profit more handsomely if they exercise ROFR, it is in their short term benefit to leave those assets on other owner's balance sheets while they just take a commission. Lower profit, but much higher return on capital.

Once credit markets are restored, timeshare sales will resume. Probably at a much lower annual rate and at lower prices. But, I believe they will continue again.

I don’t know for a fact that Marriott has ANY problem financing ANY unit they sell – someone show me proof that they have this problem. Marriott should have no problems getting loans so they can loan out money. But, a simple link will prove me wrong.

Folks are rightly scared out of their minds – their government has gone insane and they can only withdrawal into a survival mode and hope that the "government fairy" waves a magic wand and makes this all go away.

Now Marriott might tighten up their credit requirements and weed out folks who will simply default in a few months - that I don't dispute at all.

 

[timeos2]

Some apparently never learn

You are missing the most important element which caused the entire timeshare crisis in the first place.... the availablity of financing.

Marriott is not exercising a lot of ROFR because they don't have the capital to make the purchases any more. They are preserving cash so that they can continue operations. So, even though they can profit more handsomely if they exercise ROFR, it is in their short term benefit to leave those assets on other owner's balance sheets while they just take a commission. Lower profit, but much higher return on capital.

Once credit markets are restored, timeshare sales will resume. Probably at a much lower annual rate and at lower prices. But, I believe they will continue again.

You are 100% correct on the first part - I'm in disagreement on the second but that won't be answered for awhile, possibly years.

But if ROFR really protected the OWNER then in this time of crisis that would be the safety net. They would know ROFR would force a higher price for Marriott or any other ROFR encumbered weeks. (Of course that ALSO ignore the fact that only the best of the best is even likely to fall under ROFR even in the best times. If you own a mere Gold time or anything less than Platinum they hardly ever used ROFR anyway as even they know the value isn't there. A true owner protection would be a floor price at each ownership level that no one could buy under. No such floor exists.)

But, when it counts, Marriott ROFR is nowhere to be found. Sure, the possibility that they may cherry pick the best in the future exists but no guarantee. And pity those who 6-12 months ago didn't listen to the advice freely offered here to BID LOWER on any Marriott week they just had to have despite the ROFR. They paid way too much if they got suckered ito the ROFR trap.

Now we hear that some resellers are still touting the myth that ROFR requires higher bids. Hogwash! They KNOW it's been suspended - maybe forever, maybe not but its of no value to you as a buyer/seller anyway - but want the sellers to get more than market value and thus a higher commission. Buy at your own risk and expect that ROFR will only apply if it helps the developer - it will NEVER help a buyer or seller. Never. Remember the college professor who did an actual study - not opinion - and found it to be a total negative for all concerned except the ROFR holder. That's not YOU.

 

[PerryM]

Sharks are good fellows...

You are 100% correct on the first part - I'm in disagreement on the second but that won't be answered for awhile, possibly years.

But if ROFR really protected the OWNER then in this time of crisis that would be the safety net. They would know ROFR would force a higher price for Marriott or any other ROFR encumbered weeks. (Of course that ALSO ignore the fact that only the best of the best is even likely to fall under ROFR even in the best times. If you own a mere Gold time or anything less than Platinum they hardly ever used ROFR anyway as even they know the value isn't there. A true owner protection would be a floor price at each ownership level that no one could buy under. No such floor exists.)

But, when it counts, Marriott ROFR is nowhere to be found. Sure, the possibility that they may cherry pick the best in the future exists but no guarantee. And pity those who 6-12 months ago didn't listen to the advice freely offered here to BID LOWER on any Marriott week they just had to have despite the ROFR. They paid way too much if they got suckered ito the ROFR trap.

Now we hear that some resellers are still touting the myth that ROFR requires higher bids. Hogwash! They KNOW it's been suspended - maybe forever, maybe not but its of no value to you as a buyer/seller anyway - but want the sellers to get more than market value and thus a higher commission. Buy at your own risk and expect that ROFR will only apply if it helps the developer - it will NEVER help a buyer or seller. Never. Remember the college professor who did an actual study - not opinion - and found it to be a total negative for all concerned except the ROFR holder. That's not YOU.

I don’t know where the idea came from that the ROFR was designed to protect timeshare owners – the Twilight Zone?

The ROFR is simply the scraps of food that fall from the jowls of the developer as they conduct business – it is helpful to the owners.

But don’t take my word for it – watch as Marriott resale prices plummet until the developer can convince Ma and Pa to buy a timeshare while they vacation again. Expect falling prices while the ROFR isn’t exercised.

It’s just supply and demand – the more the developer exercises the ROFR the higher the demand and increased prices - econ 101.

That’s all any of us have said I believe; it takes a vivid imagination to believe the developer cares about anything but every increasing profits to their stock holders.

It’s like those sucker fish that hitch a ride on man eating sharks – they live by eating the scraps of the big fish – and they must do well or they would go extinct.

 

[BocaBum99]

But if ROFR really protected the OWNER then in this time of crisis that would be the safety net.

I'm not claiming that ROFR protects the owner. I said above it's primary purpose is to ensure that Marriott can buy back the best deals. Only if the resort developer acted as the buyer of last resort would they be protecting the owner.

The question of this thread is whether or not ROFR helps sellers. It absolutely does help the sophisticated seller or the seller who works with a sophisticated broker. That's because the sophisticated seller knows what the ROFR rate is and plays the buyer and Marriott against each other on who gets the unit from the seller. In that scenario, two buyers is better than one as it is in any market. So, the mere fact that they are buying and competing for inventory acts as a price support for market participants who know how to play the game.

For unsophisticated sellers, they are hosed.

 

[AwayWeGo]

Proving Once Again . . .

This is the SOLE reason Marriott uses the ROFR – to buy the cheapest units available for their sales offices.

. . . that all timeshares are used-used-used by the time the owner shows up & checks in.

We know it. The timeshare company knows it -- even if the full-freight owners don't catch on for a while.

That's why, instead of building more timeshares, the timeshare company sometimes buys'm back cheap so they can sell'm again at full freight.

Shux, they're all used-used-used so it's not like the full-freight buyer is getting less by buying a used week reacquired via ROFR rather than a newly titled used week.

Used is used any way you shake it -- not that there's anything wrong with that other than the fact that paying full freight means overpaying.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

 

[BocaBum99]

It will NEVER help a buyer or seller. Never. Remember the college professor who did an actual study - not opinion - and found it to be a total negative for all concerned except the ROFR holder. That's not YOU.

You couldn't be more wrong on this statement. You are saying that no buyer or seller ever benefited from ROFR? That is completely wrong. I can prove it and there are hundreds of posters on this message board who have sold timeshares for prices propped up by ROFR at artificially high prices.

The problem with a college professor is the old adage. "Those who can do. Those who can't teach."

I told you that ROFR distorts the free market. That is what free market capitalism will predict. That is what I've always thought until I compare the distorted ROFR market with the absolute chaos of the non-existent resale market where on a given day a similar timeshare unit will sell for $2000 and 20000. ROFR is far from perfect, but it is better than the alternative of total chaos.

 

[Dave M]

I don’t know for a fact that Marriott has ANY problem financing ANY unit they sell – someone show me proof that they have this problem. Marriott should have no problems getting loans so they can loan out money. But, a simple link will prove me wrong.

I can't give you a "simple link", but yes, it's fact, Perry.

In early November, Marriott discontinued providing incentives to purchasers for borrowing from Marriott. Amazingly, Marriott also discontinued giving incentive points for keeping such loans in place, despite having offered those continuing incentives as part of the purchase package. There are several threads here on that issue, such as this one.

Thus, although Marriott is still making loans to buyers, it is no longer encouraging such loans. As discussed in various Marriott meetings with analysts (which I have discussed and linked here approximately annually), Marriott typically packages many of those loans and sells them on the secondary market. (Example: See page 51 of this 2/26/08 presentation to security analysts, but be warned that the PDF file loads v-e-r-y slowly: "Note sales are a key aspect of Marriott’s overall capital recycling strategy"). However, the secondary market for packaging and selling those loans has completely dried up due to the credit crunch and the uncertainty of the value of such packaged loans in this economic environment.

I have had confirmed to me by a person inside of Marriott that I trust completely that Marriott has made significant changes in recent months to reduce its need for cash in its timeshare operations, at least temporarily. That's also one of the reasons why Marriott is significantly or completely stopped exercising ROFR temporarily.

 

[AwayWeGo]

That's Got It Backwards.

Expect falling prices while the ROFR isn’t exercised.

What really happens is that when the prices drop down way low, then the timeshare company quits exercising ROFR.

ROFR = ROFL.

-- Alan Cole, McLean (Fairfax County), Virginia, USA.​

 

[BocaBum99]

I can't give you a "simple link", but yes, it's fact, Perry.

In early November, Marriott discontinued providing incentives to purchasers for borrowing from Marriott. Amazingly, Marriott also discontinued giving incentive points for keeping such loans in place, despite having offered those continuing incentives as part of the purchase package. There are several threads here on that issue, such as this one.

Thus, although Marriott is still making loans to buyers, it is no longer encouraging such loans. As discussed in various Marriott meetings with analysts (which I have discussed and linked here approximately annually), Marriott typically packages many of those loans and sells them on the secondary market. However, the secondary market for packaging and selling those loans has completely dried up due to the credit crunch and the uncertainty of the value of such packaged loans in this economic environment.

I have had confirmed to me by a person inside of Marriott that I trust completely that Marriott has made significant changes in recent months to reduce its need for cash in its timeshare operations, at least temporarily. That's also one of the reasons why Marriott is significantly or completely stopped exercising ROFR temporarily.

This is effecting the entire industry. They can't pacakge up the loans and sell them on the secondary market. It's the same problem effecting the entire economy.

 

[BocaBum99]

Here are the economics of how sellers benefit from ROFR. They don't always benefit, but it has proven to be very beneficial for many high end timeshares over the past several years. The reason why ROFR provides an uplift to resale prices is that the developer can sell those units for a lot more than the general resale market and there has been sufficient demand for that higher priced product to force upward the average resale selling price for certain units.

Let's say that Marriott is selling 2br Ocean Pointe Gold weeks for about $20k at the resort. For various reasons, they can sell it for a lot more than the general resale market.

Let's further say that the general resale market without ROFR has determined that the free market value of such a 2br Ocean Point Gold week is about $5k. This is a hypothetical price point for illustration purposes.

If Marriott decides it needs to acquire inventory and starts exercising at $12k and saavy brokers figure this out, what happens is the average sales price of those resale Gold weeks trend upwards toward $12k. It stops when Marriott has enough units that it can productively move at the $20k level.

THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO DOUBT THAT WHEN THE ABOVE SITUATION OCCURS THAT THE SELLER BENEFITS DIRECTLY FROM ROFR AS LONG AS THEY HOLD OUT OR WORK WITH A BROKER THAN CAN FIND THEM BUYERS FOR A PRICE ABOVE $5K

As long as Marriott has capital that it can productively use and a market for customers at the higher price point, then this model works. And, it has worked for years.

The reason it is not in use now is that Marriott needs to preserve capital, so it is willing to take a reduced profit by brokering units instead of buying and selling for greater profit due to the reduced capital requirements. And, even if it were exercising ROFR, the rate would be going down since demand at the resort level is going down.

On the other hand, these same economics could be such that Marriott can acquire as much inventory it needs at a level that is BELOW the free market level of resales. When that happens, ROFR has no impact on the resale prices. For example. Using the above Marriott Gold Ocean Pointe example. Let's say that Marriott determined it could sell 20 units for $20000 in 1Q09. And, let's say that 20 units came up for sale below $3000. They would snap up all of those 20 units. But, the average resale price is $5000. So, in this scenario, ROFR does nothing to prop up the price.

Both scenarios and more are possible. For much of the last 5 years, ROFR has propped up resale prices. Now, those price supports are gone and prices are plummeting far more than they would had ROFR never been exercised.

 

[JimIg23]

ROFR maintains a certain level during good or great economic times. I was ROFR'ed 5 out of 7 times I bid on a Marriott. This does create a level where, if you want to buy a Marriott timeshare, you need to be at unless you get very very lucky. I was not. I paid near ROFR with help of Tuggers.

Now, during bad economic times, ROFR means nothing. Less people are buying timeshares and if they are, offer much less. (Although less severe, people are buying less houses and the prices are falling) I would think Marriott (like every other corp) wants debt off their books because no one is buying mortgage packages, especially timeshares. Marriott probably wants to reserve their cash and probably is not adding units that do not pay MFs into the property (unless they have to pay the MFs, which is worse for them). This is worse for sellers because everyone knows the market is depressed and the asking price will be smaller (just like the housing market, but more severe). I am not equating the TS market to the housing market, but there are some similarities.

This is the best time for buyers who have the equity on hand, can afford the MFs and want to buy it to use.

I think once the economy gets better, people will start buying timeshares again, Marriott may spend more cash on units to fill the demand, bundle more loans to sell (although after this mess, that may be a long long time) and ROFR will become active again. Just my opinion.

I would not want to be a seller now, but buying seems good me to. I, for one, will be looking for a fire sale on a EOY NCV so I can have 2 weeks EOY. I don't plan on asking more than 2k. Who knows, maybe I will find one.