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Saving 2020 HGVC Club points into 2021

csodjd

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I love that I'm not the only one referring to this frequently as the zombie apocalypse :)

My point was that, if COVID-19 is serious enough in December to have HGVC cancelling reservations, then it must still be a big deal. Yes, it will be mitigated before then but, at present, we are on a path to increase deaths by a factor of 10 every 8.7 days. That will flatten, but when?

Cheers.
Deaths lag behind new cases by about 15 or so days. The curve measures new cases. There is a bit of evidence now that it is flattening. Each of the last three days in the US the total number of new cases has increased by about 1000 over the previous day. That's not trivial, but well below exponential doubling. From 9k, to 10k, to 11k. Over 50% of the totals in NY. You can monitor at https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (note that day/time is GMT). Florida is increasing. California appears to be decreasing quite a bit today. Hawaii hasn't reported any new cases today. I suspect we'll start to see notable regional differences as some states are being much more aggressive than others at trying to contain.
 

brp

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Deaths lag behind new cases by about 15 or so days. The curve measures new cases.
Actually, I'm talking about the death growth curve. I am modeling the data myself and deaths are following a 10-fold increase every 8.7 days, and this is the trend for about the last 9 days. Previously, it was a decade increase every 13 days, so the rate has been increasing. Yes, it will flatten, just a question of when.

Cheers.
 

csodjd

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Actually, I'm talking about the death growth curve. I am modeling the data myself and deaths are following a 10-fold increase every 8.7 days, and this is the trend for about the last 9 days. Previously, it was a decade increase every 13 days, so the rate has been increasing. Yes, it will flatten, just a question of when.

Cheers.
Correct. That's as expected because mortality is a lagging indicator, lagging about two weeks behind new cases, and new cases were growing rapidly two weeks ago before the various stay at home orders around the US went into effect. But to measure the impact of stay at home and social distancing, new cases is the appropriate measure.
 

brp

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Correct. That's as expected because mortality is a lagging indicator, lagging about two weeks behind new cases, and new cases were growing rapidly two weeks ago before the various stay at home orders around the US went into effect. But to measure the impact of stay at home and social distancing, new cases is the appropriate measure.
The reason I will disagree with this, even though it makes sense on the surface, is that the increase in testing is probably a larger factor in the new case numbers than actual new infections. So apparent case count would rise even if we were so isolated that new new infections happened. So I'm not sure that we will be able to disambiguate the impact of stay at home and testing rates on new case count.

Cheers.
 

terces

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Even if Covid-19 is still quite active then, it is not likely a large percentage of the world's population will be dead. The cumulative death rate is currently between 2 and 4%; so significant, but not the zombie apocalypse. My concern is with the lackadaisical attitude of the Florida Governor and the fact that Florida has now become a Covid-19 hotspot. There is not only no vaccine, but a significant shortage of equipment to deal with it.

Like someone else we know in Washington, until the last few days DeSantis has taken almost no serious, coordinated action, preferring to blame everyone else, such as visitors from NY, NJ and CT. Yet he allowed large masses of students to congregate on the beaches during Spring Break and even had the temerity to challenge mayors who decided to take action on their own. This does not bode well for significant diminution of the Covid-19 virus anytime soon.

Here in Canada we have been in lock-down for some time now and self-isolated in our home, with limited travel outside of it. Most people are also being good about exercising "physical distancing". We seem to be experiencing a reduction in cases relative to the USA and a flattening of the curve. Lets hope that continues. I am less optimistic about Florida.

We have 11 nights booked at the beginning of December at HGVC Plantation Beach Club, on the beach in central Florida. The first round of Covid-19 should hopefully be clear by then, but authorities are now concerned about successive waves around the world. With a vaccine not likely to be widely available in under 12 to 16 months, a relaxing of preventative measures would not be good. We are certainly not panicking, but Florida will still be there in 2021. We want to ensure we are, too!

As seniors in the second highest risk category, we won't risk our health, and certainly not potentially our lives, just to take a vacation. If it is ongoing we may also be unable to obtain travel health coverage that will cover it. Currently Covid-19 is an exclusion. We love to travel, but if little changes by the middle of October, we will cancel and move our points to 2021. Travel is a "want", not a "need".

Cheers!
Canuck I am seeing things a bit differently in Canada. This past weekend I saw hundreds, maybe thousands congregating in and around Banff National Park. These were huge numbers relative to a normal March weekend. Not only congregating, but leaving disgusting garbage everywhere. I have been keeping a detailed spreadsheet on the velocity of the progression and from yesterday until today Canada had a 32.84% increase in cases, whereas worldwide it was 11.86%.
We now have the last wave of snowbirds coming through crowded airports and bringing more of it with them. We are definitely not seeing a reduction in cases and in fact we could be just at the bottom left side of the bell curve. Buckle your seat belt
 

CanuckTravlr

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Canuck I am seeing things a bit differently in Canada. This past weekend I saw hundreds, maybe thousands congregating in and around Banff National Park. These were huge numbers relative to a normal March weekend. Not only congregating, but leaving disgusting garbage everywhere. I have been keeping a detailed spreadsheet on the velocity of the progression and from yesterday until today Canada had a 32.84% increase in cases, whereas worldwide it was 11.86%.
We now have the last wave of snowbirds coming through crowded airports and bringing more of it with them. We are definitely not seeing a reduction in cases and in fact we could be just at the bottom left side of the bell curve. Buckle your seat belt
I have not seen anything like that in Ontario, but then my wife and I are following the rules of keeping ourselves mostly isolated in our home. So why are your police forces not dealing with it? They are here. Curious as to how you observed "hundreds, maybe thousands" of people in Banff National Park this past weekend, or do you mean just the town of Banff? The only way you would have been able to observe that is if you were there, too. If so, I hope it was because you live in the town site and were not visiting yourself!

Having said that, Banff National Park itself is huge. I have visited it many times. It could easily contain hundreds and possibly thousands of visitors and still have them observe proper physical distancing and not intermingle. If it was just the town site you were referring to, then shame on the municipal authorities for not doing a better job of limiting and controlling the crowds.

The majority of our snowbirds here have been back for awhile and everything is basically shut down, so nowhere for them to go, even if they wanted to do so. Fortunately Pearson airport is much bigger than Calgary, so it is like a ghost town for the most part. But then Premier Kenney seems reluctant to enforce physical distancing in dealing with the pandemic for those idiots that don't want to listen. Dine-in restaurants and bars are still open in Alberta last time I checked; 50% capacity reduction does not go far enough IMO. Ours are only open for take-out or delivery.

And let's deal with truth in numbers. First, please don't put words in my mouth. I never said we were not seeing an increase in deaths, but a lower rate of occurrence and death when compared to the USA. Also, a reported increase on a single day is not a statistically relevant data point for determining a trend. A trend must track over a number of days. You can have a blip on any given day, without necessarily changing the trend.

I agree we are still on the left side of the curve, but current worldwide increases are a red herring. They include China's multi-billion population which is already on the other side of the curve. Canada, with only 37.7 million people is therefore a drop in the statistical bucket. Look at the rates in Europe, the UK and the USA where we are all in the same phase of the pandemic, with North America further behind since we were the last of that group to fully feel the effects of the pandemic.

Here is a comparison with the USA I did yesterday from another post Our rates are much lower than those south of the border. The numbers in both countries have obviously grown since then.

Canada - Population: 37.7 million; Covid-19 cases (total/per million): 2,176/57.72; Deaths (total/per million): 25/0.66
USA - Population: 331.0 million; Covid-19 cases (total/per million): 44,183/133.48; Deaths (total/per million): 544/1.64
 
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Sandy VDH

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Isn't the solution just to enroll in "Auto Save" which is offering the discount. My understanding is that this effectively just auto-saves any points left at the end of the year (so, it should pick up points you receive back for future cancellations). Can anyone confirm if I have that right?

Auto save USED to save the points at the end of the year, but they have reprogrammed it and it autosaves the points overnight once you make payment.

I just paid for auto save yesterday and all my points are in 2021 as of this morning.
 

janckenn

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As @Panina answered you can borrow them back. That is why I thought I would remind everyone about the discount period NOW, instead of waiting until the end of the year.

I actually cancelled all my reservations that were using 2020 club points. Transfered them to some Saved points I had remaining, then saved all of the points into 2021. They told me it should be an overnight transaction.

I am pushing my summer plans to the fall. I can't book at that resort until later in April, as booking is frozen right now, but neither can anyone else either.
How exactly do you go about doing this online? I am afraid if I cancel that I won't be able to re-book the exact same reservation.
 

Sandy VDH

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How exactly do you go about doing this online? I am afraid if I cancel that I won't be able to re-book the exact same reservation.
I was moving dates anyway. But if you are wanting to rebook and there is NO availability then that is a problem. You might not be able to pull that off. Because it takes overnight to move the points into 2021.
 

DannyTS

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I have been keeping a detailed spreadsheet on the velocity of the progression and from yesterday until today Canada had a 32.84% increase in cases, whereas worldwide it was 11.86%.
We now have the last wave of snowbirds coming through crowded airports and bringing more of it with them. We are definitely not seeing a reduction in cases and in fact we could be just at the bottom left side of the bell curve. Buckle your seat belt
if you look at the number of new cases by date of symptom onset, it appears to be going down

 

Cyberc

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Just a reminder for those who have had to cancel reservations this spring and early summer and do not know when you might be able to use your 2020 allotment of points. The Discounted Rate of $85 for saving points ends on March 31st. After April 1st it will be $125 to save points into 2021.

So if you are in the situation to have to save points, think about doing it before the end of the month to have yourself about $40.

I just saved my allotment into 2021. If I end up using some back this year that is fine, but I don't having worry about booking and using the "right' points to complete the reservation.
When I check online the fee is $115 for saving the points and $125 for saving them when you call in. Do you have to call in to save the additional funds or why am I not seeing it online?
 

brp

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When I check online the fee is $115 for saving the points and $125 for saving them when you call in. Do you have to call in to save the additional funds or why am I not seeing it online?
You're looking at the Save Points link (I did that too). Look below that for Autosave. That's only $85, as noted. I did it a couple of days back and, as reported, it saved them now, but the charge was only $85.

Cheers.
 

Cyberc

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You're looking at the Save Points link (I did that too). Look below that for Autosave. That's only $85, as noted. I did it a couple of days back and, as reported, it saved them now, but the charge was only $85.

Cheers.
Thanks

Maybe I missed it, but what is the difference between the "auto Save" and the "Save points" option except for the price?
 

PigsDad

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Maybe I missed it, but what is the difference between the "auto Save" and the "Save points" option except for the price?
I believe that the difference is that auto save is only offered in the first few months of the year, so you need to decide earlier if you are going to need to save points or not. If you choose auto save and you end up not needing it, you basically just wasted $85.

Kurt
 

Cyberc

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You're looking at the Save Points link (I did that too). Look below that for Autosave. That's only $85, as noted. I did it a couple of days back and, as reported, it saved them now, but the charge was only $85.

Cheers.
Btw the auto banking states it will take 24 hours does it really take that long or is it instantly?
 

Cyberc

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I believe that the difference is that auto save is only offered in the first few months of the year, so you need to decide earlier if you are going to need to save points or not. If you choose auto save and you end up not needing it, you basically just wasted $85.

Kurt
Aaarh ok.

Thanks.
 

brp

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I believe that the difference is that auto save is only offered in the first few months of the year, so you need to decide earlier if you are going to need to save points or not. If you choose auto save and you end up not needing it, you basically just wasted $85.

Kurt
Well, it was noted above, and it happened to me as well. It seems to be behaving differently now than in the past (or so I believe as I never used it before). My understanding was "register now and, if you have points at the end of the year, they get saved." What it did now was to save them all now .

Cheers.
 

PigsDad

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Well, it was noted above, and it happened to me as well. It seems to be behaving differently now than in the past (or so I believe as I never used it before). My understanding was "register now and, if you have points at the end of the year, they get saved." What it did now was to save them all now .
Right, that is definitely different vs. last year. I guess we will see if they stop offering the Auto Save option after the first few months this year. Of course, with everything thrown up in the air, there are probably going to be many "one time" exceptions this year.

Kurt
 

dayooper

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Right, that is definitely different vs. last year. I guess we will see if they stop offering the Auto Save option after the first few months this year. Of course, with everything thrown up in the air, there are probably going to be many "one time" exceptions this year.

Kurt
Maybe it’s how the system works, but HGVC has done a fabulous job in the crisis. Their one time exceptions have been timely and helpful. Take a peak at some of the other boards and you will see that other companies aren’t as forgiving as HGVC.
 

brp

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Right, that is definitely different vs. last year. I guess we will see if they stop offering the Auto Save option after the first few months this year. Of course, with everything thrown up in the air, there are probably going to be many "one time" exceptions this year.

Kurt
Also, as noted above, they can be borrowed back if needed this year.

Because we have over 19K points since we have not yet sold our Flamingo units, we had no need to save the HGVC points next year since things are likely to expire. However, saving our fewer bHC points is worth it.

Cheers.
\
 

CalGalTraveler

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Clarification: Does Autosave

a) only save points left over at the end of the year? (one time save at the end of the year)
b) It saves as you go when 2020 points free up after you cancel?
c) saves the points you have now and doesn't save points that may show up from cancellations later in the year?

lastly:

If you have banked 2019 points, It won't touch those points because they are 2019?

Sorry for possibly duplicating earlier posts but I am still confused as to how this works.
 

PigsDad

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Also, as noted above, they can be borrowed back if needed this year.
Yes, saved points have always been available to be borrowed back to the original use year, so if you know you are going to need to save at least some points before the end of the year, there is no penalty to save your points early. Since Elite Premier members pay no transaction fees for most anything, they routinely save their points at the beginning of the year -- it is free and there is no downside to doing so.

Kurt
 

brp

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Clarification: Does Autosave

a) only save points left over at the Replyend of the year? (one time save at the end of the year)
b) It saves as you go when 2020 points free up after you cancel?
c) saves the points you have now and doesn't save points that may show up from cancellations later in the year?

lastly:

If you have banked 2019 points, It won't touch those points because they are 2019?

Sorry for possibly duplicating earlier posts but I am still confused as to how this works.
Survey says: Option c. However, as it is doing this rather than a, as it did previously, I would expect that, with a call, newly-freed points would be rolled forward with no additional fees, And even moreso with the advent of the Zombie Apocalypse.

Cheers.
 

Talent312

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From the 3/30 Newsletter (posted elsewhere):
"I would also like to address your limited use of 2020 Club Points... How we counteract abbreviated usage [in 2020] is still being discussed. We are aware it is a concern, and we will communicate with you the moment we have a solution.

IOW, we may or may not extend use of 2020 points. Stay tuned.

.
 

Cyberc

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From the 3/30 Newsletter (posted elsewhere):
"I would also like to address your limited use of 2020 Club Points... How we counteract abbreviated usage [in 2020] is still being discussed. We are aware it is a concern, and we will communicate with you the moment we have a solution.

IOW, we may or may not extend use of 2020 points. Stay tuned.

.
If people have paid to save points from 2020 to 2021 I would assume they can’t reverse that transaction?
 
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