Red Alert for RedWeek?

[PerryM]

(I use the site www.quantcast.com for a lot of interesting stats - you might too.)

Just checked RedWeek’s traffic – things seem to be heading towards the toilet; could it be the broken promises of their exchange system stuck on stupid?


MyResortNetwork.com seems to be bouncing back but is still just 1/3 the volume of RedWeek.

II seems to be hurting too but is bouncing back.

RCI and II now seem to be tied; I thought RCI was twice as big as all the other exchange companies combined? Trouble in paradise?

Marriott Vacation Club International seems screwy to me. Could it be the new web site?

WorldMark seems to be bouncing back too.

Westin seems to be on a roll (low numbers though)

Wyndham

Look at VRBO and you might see something very interesting...

Recap:

Redweek – 105k folks per month
MyResortNetwork – 31k folks per month
II – 330k folks per month
RCI – 436k folks per month
MVCI – 29k folks per month
WM – 136k folks per month
Westin – 4.4k folks per month
Wyndham - 60k folks per month
VRBO – 1.8M folks per month (Almost TWICE of ALL the above)


You can post your own timeshare organization and compare it to the above.

 

[buceo]

I'd think the reduced ts rental-site traffic (redweek in particular) is from high air fares and an overall poor or at least cautious economy. People are not planning their usual winter vacations.

Is VRBO more for property owners renting many weeks a year (year round owners) than it is for ts owners? Seems the VRBO listing fee is quite high. Is VRBO used for ts weekly rentals? That VRBO graph is amazing.

Great site, thanks!

 

[mlsmn]

From Quancast's website
"Only Quantcast combines directly measured audience data with panel-based estimates"

They are guessing
the only way to know what the traffic is to have embeded codes on all the pages of a website.

I have 3 friends who have websites -all say Quantcast numbers are highly inaccurate. All too low.

 

[PerryM]

I'd think the reduced ts rental-site traffic (redweek in particular) is from high air fares and an overall poor or at least cautious economy. People are not planning their usual winter vacations.

Is VRBO more for property owners renting many weeks a year (year round owners) than it is for ts owners? Seems the VRBO listing fee is quite high. Is VRBO used for ts weekly rentals? That VRBO graph is amazing.

Great site, thanks!

I can only guess to what these numbers really mean - soft economy, global warming, flying saucers, etc - who knows.

However, the 50% reduction in RedWeek's volume just seems very high; I guess it could be nothing to worry about but then I have no RedWeek Points that I need to worry about either.

VRBO represents vacation usage without putting up one single dollar - their volume is astonishing compared to the rest of the list I looked up.

 

[PerryM]

From Quancast's website
"Only Quantcast combines directly measured audience data with panel-based estimates"

They are guessing
the only way to know what the traffic is to have embeded codes on all the pages of a website.

I have 3 friends who have websites -all say Quantcast numbers are highly inaccurate. All too low.

True, but what data is available to refute their numbers?

It's like Zillow - I reference it all the time and these are guesses too. However, what alternatives are there? In the case of the real estate I track they are spot on.

Unless there are other sources I'll use Quancast since the sites I track are spot on too.

If you look up TUG you'll see 21,600 folks per month and TUG states 29,122 members. Seems to make sense to me.

 

[bnoble]

Curious, and worth discussion over a beer, but perhaps not much more.

I'm also not sure what scoring system you use, but ~30% higher is not "almost tied" in my book.

I'm not surprised by VRBO. I'm guessing vacation home rental is more mainstream than timeshare. Just going by my own anecdotal experience, I know far more people who have rented homes than timeshare units.

 

[TUGBrian]

that site isnt even close to being accurate.

 

[buceo]

I can only guess to what these numbers really mean - soft economy, global warming, flying saucers, etc - who knows.

Oh sure you do, flying saucers and global warming don't have anything to do with rentals this year so that leaves the soft economy.

 

[PerryM]

Tug's stats

I haven't a clue to the folks who visit TUG a month - however the following stats were generated for TUG:

50/50 Male/Female - seems right
58% of the folks are 50+ years old - seems right
94% Caucasian - seems right
76% have no children to go along with the 50+ years old - seems right
40% make $100k per year - seems right
49% have a college degree - seems right
25% are Masters' degree or higher - seems right

50% of visits are by Addicts - seems right
31% are regulars - seems right
19% are passers-by - seems right

If I knew nothing about TUG those stats would seem to fit the average timeshare owner in the USA.

Look at the list of other web sites that this audience visits:

timeshareforums.com 2932.5x
tug2.com 2246.1x
tug2.net 2159.1x
timeshareadventures.... 454.7x
myresortnetwork.com 449.6x
streettalkblog.com 439.7x
holidaygroup.com 234.0x
redweek.com 227.2x
sellmytimesharenow.c... 170.0x
vacationtimeshareren... 150.3x
timesharehotdeal.com 99.9x
thetimesharebeat.com 90.8x
rci.com 67.7x
skyauction.com 48.1x
intervalworld.com

This seems right on target.

I have no facts to challenge the volume count however....

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

True, but what data is available to refute their numbers?

It's like Zillow - I reference it all the time and these are guesses too. However, what alternatives are there? In the case of the real estate I track they are spot on.

Considering your past posts touting the investment value of real estate (such asc ondo hotels in Florida and Las Vegas about two years ago), that statement doesn't really build much credibility in my eyes.

 

[PerryM]

Oh sure you do, flying saucers and global warming don't have anything to do with rentals this year so that leaves the soft economy.

Look at Kayak.com on the Traffic tab with ALL TIME data and you'll see that folks are busy planning trips - vacation and business.

So much of what we think we know from the Drive-By Media is just wrong when you look up other sources. I believe the trend the economy is just fine and on November 5 all this baloney will suddenly disappear and America will once again be just right...

 

[PerryM]

If that's part of the same real estate philosophy that led you a couple of years ago to espouse to us the investment value of condo hotels in Florida and Las Vegas, I think I''ll pass on that Kool-Aid.

It's a great time to buy real estate and hold 5 years right now. Everything cycles up and down except for one thing - timeshares - they never seem to cycle down.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

It's a great time to buy real estate and hold 5 years right now. Everything cycles up and down except for one thing - timeshares - they never seem to cycle down.

The thing with cycles is that you need to sell at the top and buy at the bottom. You've done a pretty fair job of advising people to buy at the peaks.

 

[TUGBrian]

this site gets 5x that many visitors in a month.

isnt the first time a thread like this has popped up.

 

[PerryM]

The thing with cycles is that you need to sell at the top and buy at the bottom. You've done a pretty fair job of advising people to buy at the peaks.

Sadly I have little impact on our out of control government - the one that strong-armed the lending institutions into approving folks without ANY proof of income and encouraged teaser ARMs to boot.

2 years ago you could simply supply a water or gas bill and then sign a document stating you make $1 M and the lending institutions accepted that. Again, everything cycles up and down.

Look at the mess Fannie Mae and Friddie MaC are in - I'm responsible for this?

Our government caused the housing bubble and as it bursted the politicians stand around saying "what happened?" .

Don't hold me responsible for a government gone insane....


But I can make a prediction that is 100% accurate - these cycles will grow larger and larger as the government causes the crashes and then rushes in to "fix" the problem which will simply cause another larger problem.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

Sadly I have little impact on our out of control government - the one that strong-armed the lending institutions into approving folks without ANY proof of income and encouraged teaser ARMs to boot.

2 years ago you could simply supply a water or gas bill and then sign a document stating you make $1 M and the lending institutions accepted that. Again, everything cycles up and down.

Look at the mess Fannie Mae and Friddie MaC are in - I'm responsible for this?

Don't hold me responsible for a government gone insane....

Ahhhh, Perry. I've been doing investing for 30 years. I've done a pretty good job of avoiding tops. Condo hotels in Florida and Las Vegas were pretty clearly at a peak a couple of years ago, regardless of any government action or inaction. It was just greedy pigs feeding at the trough. Just like every other bubble in history.

It had all of the elements of tulip-bulb frenzy. And there you were telling people what a great investments they were. Of course you're not responsible for Freddy Mac. But the fact is that you were advising people what great investment opportunities right at the peak of the market, while Freddy Mac and Fannie Mae were still (seemingly) in wonderful shape and posting record earnings.

 

[TUGBrian]

you believe in horoscopes too? =)

just think for a minute as to how this company could possibly ascertain such information about gender, age, wealth, etc from every person on the internet traveling to every site on the internet.

"just because its on the internet doesnt mean its true"

 

[PerryM]

Ahhh h, Perry. I've been doing investing for 30 years. I've done a pretty good job of avoiding tops. Condo hotels in Florida and Las Vegas were pretty clearly at a peak a couple of years ago, regardless of any government action or inaction. It was just greedy pigs feeding at the trough. Just like every other bubble in history.

It had all of the elements of tulip-bulb frenzy. And there you were telling people what a great investments they were. Of course you're not responsible for Freddy Mac. But the fact is that you were advising people what great investment opportunities right at the peak of the market, while Freddy Mac and Fannie Mae were still (seemingly) in wonderful shape and posting record earning.

I'm not sure if our wonderful government will ever investigate the fiasco they caused - it was all hidden from the public and still is. It is/was the largest fraud in human history and it is still unfolding. This all lead the market to go up, the consequences of this fraud caused the market to go down.

Again don't hold me responsible for a corrupt government who causes all of this, I can only look at the facts and render a decision - if those facts are full of fraud I can't be held responsible. I understand that folks got burned - call your congressman/woman and ask for an explanation (good luck).

 

[PerryM]

you believe in horoscopes too? =)

just think for a minute as to how this company could possibly ascertain such information about gender, age, wealth, etc from every person on the internet traveling to every site on the internet.

"just because its on the internet doesnt mean its true"

True, but it opposite applies "just because its on the Internet doesn't mean its false".

I think that web site can be used for a lot of useful information - trends are certainly one of them.

 

[BocaBum99]

It's a great time to buy real estate and hold 5 years right now. Everything cycles up and down except for one thing - timeshares - they never seem to cycle down.

Perry,

Nice to see you back posting. We have had lots of disagreement over the past year. Nothing personal. Just a difference of opinion about the market.

I think we are converging our views. I agree with your call here about Real Estate. Now is the time to buy, not sell. I've been waiting for this time to come for about 5 years.

Jim

 

[TUGBrian]

how so...there is nothing accurate about the information.

you are free to make any observation you wish, however drawing conclusions based on worthless information wont really accomplish much.

 

[PerryM]

how so...there is nothing accurate about the information.

you are free to make any observation you wish, however drawing conclusions based on worthless information wont really accomplish much.

Look at YouTube - does it not describe YouTube to the T?

Until something eclipses QantCast I'll defer to their analysis.

 

[TUGBrian]

id suggest using some common sense given my previous comments regarding demographics.

It is simply not possible to collect all the facts they put on the site. no way, no how, zip, squat, zero % chance.

Even the owners of the sites themselves cannot collect that information from a web browser....yet you believe some ambiguous rating site can do this externally?

however as stated before, you are most certainly entitled to your opinion.

 

[PerryM]

id suggest using some common sense given my previous comments regarding demographics.

It is simply not possible to collect all the facts they put on the site. no way, no how, zip, squat, zero % chance.

Even the owners of the sites themselves cannot collect that information from a web browser....yet you believe some ambiguous rating site can do this externally?

however as stated before, you are most certainly entitled to your opinion.

I'm sure every web site owner disputes their analysis - the web site owner probably knows the answers and normally does not disclose them. Short of sending over a SWAT unit to drag the information out of the owner I think QuantCast has done an excellent job on the 100+ sites I've investigated at least.

 

[PerryM]

Light bulb question....

Question: how many politicians does it take to screw in a light bulb?


Answer: a simple majority....