Post your...I'm still traveling in March here

[JeffC]

Be sure to keep checking. Okemo has now closed for a minimum 1 week following 2 confirmed cases in Ludlow. Haven't heard of any action at Kilington or Sugarbush yet but things change daily.

Looks like most of the Mountains in Vermont are closed. Sugarbush, Mt Snow, Okemo, Killington, and Stowe all closed thru 3/22. No word on what they're doing after that. But given the trajectory of the virus I'd say they're all done for the year, things are going to get worse before they get better. Bolton Valley is still open for skiing as of now. There's not enough snow to break out the XC ski's so looks like I'm done for the year. We had show tickets for today but Broadway was shut down on Thursday so that's out. Strange times we're in. On the one hand I'd like to support the businesses around LI and in places we were planning on travelling to this month. On the other I don't want to spread the virus either. I'm not symptomatic and neither is the DW. But we're both 60 and on the edge of the at risk population. For the most part we're both healthy. I guess it's just a wait and see for now.

 

[heathpack]

Just be smart, wash your hands, don't have close contact with strangers and the elderly. This virus is far less dangerous than the media is making it out to be. Yes, this virus can last for up to three days on solid services but aside from that, I'm not seeing anything making this more dangerous than the common flu other than we don't have a vaccine.
I say that based on the numbers. The number of currently infected is barely more than the number that have recovered.

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

Actually this virus IS worse than regular flu.

1. Its more contagious
2. It’s a novel infection so there’s zero background immunity in the population
3. It has a higher mortality rate in all adult age groups, especially in the elderly
4. When people are critically ill such that they require a ventilator, they are generally sicker than with the flu and utilize limited resources like intensive nursing care and ventilator support for a long period of time

This really is a very serious situation, not something that should be minimized.

 

[presley]

I am considering a drive out to the local desert. It wouldn't be an overnight thing. I'm still going out and doing stuff outside such as walking my dogs, hiking, etc. I'm really torn about whether I should see my daughter in Long Beach or not. It's about 90 miles away and we were going to be together this weekend at Disneyland, but it closed and we opted to not make other plans. I feel like I if I don't drive up to see her this afternoon, it could be a really long time before we can get together again.

What are the rest of you doing who have adult children who don't have their own families? What will you do if they become ill?

 

[bnoble]

This virus is far less dangerous than the media is making it out to be. ... I'm not seeing anything making this more dangerous than the common flu other than we don't have a vaccine.

CDC estimates seasonal flu fatality rate at 0.1%. As far as I can tell, the seasonal flu has an R0 number of about 1.3. In other words, a person who is sick infects, on average, 1.3 other people. (That may be lower than "natural" because of immunizations).

Coronavirus has an R0 number between 2-3. So, it is more contagious. The lowest fatality rate recorded has been in S. Korea, which has been testing aggressively so has found a lot of mild cases in addition to those more severe. They've measured a rate of about 0.7%. Other places have been higher.

So, it is more infectious and more deadly.

 

[Shankilicious]

Actually this virus IS worse than regular flu.

1. Its more contagious
2. It’s a novel infection so there’s zero background immunity in the population
3. It has a higher mortality rate in all adult age groups, especially in the elderly
4. When people are critically ill such that they require a ventilator, they are generally sicker than with the flu and utilize limited resources like intensive nursing care and ventilator support for a long period of time

This really is a very serious situation, not something that should be minimized.

167,000 in three months confirmed Corona cases.
31,000,000 to 51,000,000 common flu this season. How is that more contagious?
6,000 deaths from conona virus.
22,000-55,000 from common flu.
The fact that people can carry it an not have symptoms or get sick shows that it's not as dangerous as portrayed.
China is on the backside of the curve with only 25 new recent cases. That's in three months that it has come and gone from one of the densest populations in the world.
People need to exercise common hygiene, and take care of themselves and others by staying in when not feeling well.
There's a TON of fear media going around causing panic and hysteria and in three weeks well look back at this as the overblown hype that it is.

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

 

[x3 skier]

Been in Steamboat Springs since Mid Jan. The Mountain closed today for an “indefinite” period. The Governor has ordered all lift served areas to shut down for a week. If I get word this week as to what is the plan for the rest of the planned season, I’ll either stay here till Easter or travel back to Ohio earlier.

Right now is a bright sunny day, plenty of snow and the Mountain is empty..

Cheers

 

[heathpack]

167,000 in three months confirmed Corona cases.
31,000,000 to 51,000,000 common flu this season. How is that more contagious?
6,000 deaths from conona virus.
22,000-55,000 from common flu.
The fact that people can carry it an not have symptoms or get sick shows that it's not as dangerous as portrayed.
China is on the backside of the curve with only 25 new recent cases. That's in three months that it has come and gone from one of the densest populations in the world.
People need to exercise common hygiene, and take care of themselves and others by staying in when not feeling well.
There's a TON of fear media going around causing panic and hysteria and in three weeks well look back at this as the overblown hype that it is.

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

Shank, see @bnoble’s post. He is correct about the contagiousness factor.

Flu has been active for a longer season this year vs coronavirus. Mathematically you would expect a disease present since early fall to have more cases than one that got going in December.

The fact that coronavirus can be transmitted by people who are not ill is actually something that contributes to overall mortality. It may not be self evident to a lay person, but a disease like Ebola that causes dramatic and obvious symptoms in a high percentage of people means that the disease is fairly straightforward to control by modern public health practices- for the *individual* the disease is more deadly but for the *population* it’s less deadly, because quarantine of infected people is fairly straightforward. However a novel disease with a high rate of inapparent infection can be a disaster at the population level, because it’s hard to know who to quarantine and how to limit spread of infection. So Ebola is worse for an individual who contracts it, but COVID19 is a worse disease for a population exposed.

There really are people with lots of training and experience with this kind of stuff. We all should of course always use our own brains and think critically. But also recognize that sometimes we don’t have the expertise in a field to just apply logic and come to the right conclusions. Hand washing is a great message but over hyped is not. This disease is the real deal.

 

[CaliSunshine]

Don't travel if you don't have to. If you absolutely have to travel, make sure to bring/buy enough supplies to be prepared to stay for a while in case the area you're going to, your state, or the entire country gets quarantined. If you're over 50, I'd be making a list of hospital phone numbers and addresses in your area, both in and out of network. In 4 weeks, you may have trouble finding a hospital bed if you're ill.

Stay safe and healthy everyone!

 

[WinniWoman]

I am considering a drive out to the local desert. It wouldn't be an overnight thing. I'm still going out and doing stuff outside such as walking my dogs, hiking, etc. I'm really torn about whether I should see my daughter in Long Beach or not. It's about 90 miles away and we were going to be together this weekend at Disneyland, but it closed and we opted to not make other plans. I feel like I if I don't drive up to see her this afternoon, it could be a really long time before we can get together again.

What are the rest of you doing who have adult children who don't have their own families? What will you do if they become ill?

Our son lives nearby and is single. We rarely see him. Prior to this he would stop by unannounced for like 15 minutes on his lunch break.

I hope he remains healthy of course but we do not have any intentions of visiting him or taking him out to lunch or dinner or anything like that and I really would rather he doesn’t come here right now with all this going on, though we have not discussed this with him.

Heaven for bid he got ill we would do anything to help him including risking getting ill ourselves. Nothing stands in the way of a parent and their child no matter how old that child is!

 

[bnoble]

167,000 in three months confirmed Corona cases.
31,000,000 to 51,000,000 common flu this season. How is that more contagious?

You are either mathematically illiterate or being purposefully belligerent. Either way, welcome to my ignore list.

 

[Shankilicious]

You are either mathematically illiterate or being purposefully belligerent. Either way, welcome to my ignore list.

Those are numbers from the CDC. Look it up.
Not saying it's not dangerous. Just saying people are getting into hysterics when they don't need to.

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

 

[Sandi Bo]

Our son lives nearby and is single. We rarely see him. Prior to this he would stop by unannounced for like 15 minutes on his lunch break.

I hope he remains healthy of course but we do not have any intentions of visiting him or taking him out to lunch or dinner or anything like that and I really would rather he doesn’t come here right now with all this going on, though we have not discussed this with him.

Heaven for bid he got ill we would do anything to help him including risking getting ill ourselves. Nothing stands in the way of a parent and their child no matter how old that child is!

My husband and I are both 62 and healthy (although husband is an ex-smoker).

My daughters told my son he couldn't visit us if he was going to continue to hang out with his friends and go to the bars. He typically stops by once or twice a week. I haven't talked to him yet, but hoping he'll be open stopping by and walking outside (with our dog and his).

One daughter is hospitalist and so we've already done the same with her and her family - walking outside, keeping our distance.

Other daughter had a slight fever (doesn't think it's coronavirus) but wants stay away at least 2 weeks. Since her husband will have to continue to report onsite at work, we'll likely have to continue to stay away from them.

Since we aren't testing in the community (only testing if they've traveled or had contact with someone), we have to live like it is in the community. That's the way we are living these days.

 

[VacationForever]

I am considering a drive out to the local desert. It wouldn't be an overnight thing. I'm still going out and doing stuff outside such as walking my dogs, hiking, etc. I'm really torn about whether I should see my daughter in Long Beach or not. It's about 90 miles away and we were going to be together this weekend at Disneyland, but it closed and we opted to not make other plans. I feel like I if I don't drive up to see her this afternoon, it could be a really long time before we can get together again.

What are the rest of you doing who have adult children who don't have their own families? What will you do if they become ill?

I have the same worry. My son lives 10 hours away when driving. He lives alone and I hope he does not get sick from coronavirus. He is generally a home body and finishing up his last trimester of his second Bachelor's degree. If he is quarantined, I don't even know if I should drive to get him supplies etc. as I do not want to get on a plane. I can probably stay in a hotel for a couple of weeks but hotels have their problems too. If he gets hospitalized, again I will probably stay in a hotel instead of his home. I hope it does not happen.

 

[heathpack]

Those are numbers from the CDC. Look it up.
Not saying it's not dangerous. Just saying people are getting into hysterics when they don't need to.

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

Which disease is more contagious: measles or influenza?
Correct ans: Measles, by a large margin

Which disease had more cases this year: measles or influenza?
Correct ans: Influenza, by many orders of magnitude

I don’t know that you are quite grasping the concept of contagiousness.

Anyway, believe what you will about COVID19. I’m surprised to realize from social media and posts that I read on TUG how many folks think they know better than the public health experts, and how many people want to not believe what they are hearing. It’s disheartening at times but I guess that’s just the state of things...

 

[jackio]

Schools all closed here, and my grandson's daycare is closed also. Both his parents have to work, so I will drive over to babysit. I am afraid I will give something to him. However, he has been in daycare and out in the community (they all went to brunch and the stores today!). My other daughter said that they should be afraid of giving something to me! I am 60.

 

[Shankilicious]

Which disease is more contagious: measles or influenza?
Correct ans: Measles, by a large margin

Which disease had more cases this year: measles or influenza?
Correct ans: Influenza, by many orders of magnitude

I don’t know that you are quite grasping the concept of contagiousness.

Anyway, believe what you will about COVID19. I’m surprised to realize from social media and posts that I read on TUG how many folks think they know better than the public health experts, and how many people want to not believe what they are hearing. It’s disheartening at times but I guess that’s just the state of things...

I understand contagiousness and I understand that this is serious. But the numbers are so unbelievably disproportionate that the hysteria just doesn't make sense to me at all.
China is almost completely over this virus in just three months. Doesn't that say anything?
There has been one infected person in STL for over a week and she came back from Italy and has been quarantined with her family, known of whom have contracted it. That's why I throw out the numbers. Because people are completely ignoring the recovery numbers and speed. 77,000 out of 169,000 have recovered. That doesn't mean anything to anyone on here apparently.

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

 

[Rolltydr]

I understand contagiousness and I understand that this is serious. But the numbers are so unbelievably disproportionate that the hysteria just doesn't make sense to me at all.
China is almost completely over this virus in just three months. Doesn't that say anything?
There has been one infected person in STL for over a week and she came back from Italy and has been quarantined with her family, known of whom have contracted it. That's why I throw out the numbers. Because people are completely ignoring the recovery numbers and speed. 77,000 out of 169,000 have recovered. That doesn't mean anything to anyone on here apparently.

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

I’m confused. When exactly are we supposed to believe what we hear from China and when are we not? When are we supposed to admire their authoritarian state and when we should we abhor it?

 

[Sandi Bo]

I understand contagiousness and I understand that this is serious. But the numbers are so unbelievably disproportionate that the hysteria just doesn't make sense to me at all.
China is almost completely over this virus in just three months. Doesn't that say anything?
There has been one infected person in STL for over a week and she came back from Italy and has been quarantined with her family, known of whom have contracted it. That's why I throw out the numbers. Because people are completely ignoring the recovery numbers and speed. 77,000 out of 169,000 have recovered. That doesn't mean anything to anyone on here apparently.

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

We aren't finding it here, because we aren't testing in the community. Tests have to be approved. Doctors don't get to test anyone without going through an approval process. People have to have traveled or been in contact with someone who has the virus in order to be approved to be tested. The only official case of community spread thus far in Nebraska, is a woman who traveled to NY. They were only given permission to test this woman because she had traveled to NY. After testing positive, they found out she had symptoms before traveling to NY and become our one and only case of community spread. Had she not traveled to NY, she would not have been approved for testing and we could still boast 0 community spread.

We're flying blind here until we can start testing in the community. It's there, we are going to see the numbers go up quickly. Are you testing in the community in STL?

We are tracking more like Italy. And that's scary. If we can't get people to socially distance ASAP, we're going to lose control if we haven't already. Yes, thankfully many recover. But that doesn't necessarily mean it was easy. Surely many of those people needed ventilators. And we could run out (like Italy). And thus the need to flatten the curve. If everyone would take it seriously, less lives will be lost.

 

[Sandi Bo]

Schools all closed here, and my grandson's daycare is closed also. Both his parents have to work, so I will drive over to babysit. I am afraid I will give something to him. However, he has been in daycare and out in the community (they all went to brunch and the stores today!). My other daughter said that they should be afraid of giving something to me! I am 60.

Oh yeah, you do need to be careful - they need to be careful if they are asking you to watch your grandson.

 

[Shankilicious]

We aren't finding it here, because we aren't testing in the community. Tests have to be approved. Doctors don't get to test anyone without going through an approval process. People have to have traveled or been in contact with someone who has the virus in order to be approved to be tested. The only official case of community spread thus far in Nebraska, is a woman who traveled to NY. They were only given permission to test this woman because she had traveled to NY. After testing positive, they found out she had symptoms before traveling to NY and become our one and only case of community spread. Had she not traveled to NY, she would not have been approved for testing and we could still boast 0 community spread.

We're flying blind here until we can start testing in the community. It's there, we are going to see the numbers go up quickly. Are you testing in the community in STL?

We are tracking more like Italy. And that's scary. If we can't get people to socially distance ASAP, we're going to lose control if we haven't already. Yes, thankfully many recover. But that doesn't necessarily mean it was easy. Surely many of those people needed ventilators. And we could run out (like Italy). And thus the need to flatten the curve. If everyone would take it seriously, less lives will be lost.

I know they're testing the people the first case could have contacted.
And I'm all for stopping this virus. I'm against all the fear and panic.
IL is closing all eat I'm restaurants tonight at midnight. All school k-12 has been closed. Gatherings over 250 are banned. If we're not doing enough, I shudder to think what enough would look like.....

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

 

[heathpack]

I understand contagiousness and I understand that this is serious. But the numbers are so unbelievably disproportionate that the hysteria just doesn't make sense to me at all.
China is almost completely over this virus in just three months. Doesn't that say anything?
There has been one infected person in STL for over a week and she came back from Italy and has been quarantined with her family, known of whom have contracted it. That's why I throw out the numbers. Because people are completely ignoring the recovery numbers and speed. 77,000 out of 169,000 have recovered. That doesn't mean anything to anyone on here apparently.

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

Do you understand what China did to stop their out of control epidemic?

 

[JohnPaul]

Also, read information about what's happening in Italy. Even Newt Gingrich (who currently lives in Italy) is warning us to take this situation much more seriously.

 

[Shankilicious]

Do you understand what China did to stop their out of control epidemic?

Locked it down. And stopped it impressively quickly for only 80k cases out of 1.386 billion.

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

 

[alwysonvac]

Just be smart, wash your hands, don't have close contact with strangers and the elderly. This virus is far less dangerous than the media is making it out to be. Yes, this virus can last for up to three days on solid services but aside from that, I'm not seeing anything making this more dangerous than the common flu other than we don't have a vaccine.
I say that based on the numbers. The number of currently infected is barely more than the number that have recovered.

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

You might find this recent article helpful.
- https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/14/heal...19-flu-comparison-frieden-analysis/index.html


Here are some of the highlights from the article

​

Covid-19 is more likely to kill than flu. On average, about 1 in 1,000 people who get flu die from it -- mostly the elderly and people with underlying health conditions, but flu sometimes kills healthy young people and pregnant women. We don't know the precise case fatality ratio for Covid-19 because of incomplete testing of possible cases and insufficient information about outbreaks. But so far, Covid-19 appears much deadlier than seasonal flu, and quite possibly deadlier than the flu pandemics of 1957 and 1968, each of which killed more than 1 million people around the world. Those pandemics had estimated case fatality ratios far below 1% -- and Covid-19 may kill more than 1 in 100 people who get sick with it.​

​

And there is a fundamental difference in how flu and Covid-19 kill. Many deaths from flu are caused by secondary bacterial pneumonia and heart attacks that develop after the flu has weakened someone's resistance. With Covid-19, most deaths are caused by acute respiratory distress syndrome(ARDS), which causes already-damaged lungs to fill with fluid, and makes breathing difficult. Unlike pneumonia, there is no pharmaceutical treatment for ARDS. That is why a potential shortage of ventilators is so dangerous: They are the last-ditch supportive treatment for Covid-19 while the body heals itself.​

​

No treatment. There are not yet any medications that can be used to treat Covid-19, although clinical trials are currently underway and being accelerated. For flu, Tamiflu and other antiviral drugs shorten the duration of illness and reduce symptom severity if started within two days of symptom onset. This is important, even if antivirals are not as effective as antibiotics: Less-severe flu symptoms reduce the need for intensive care and reduce the risk of death.​

​

No immunity. Because Covid-19 is caused by a novel virus, it is likely that there is no natural immunity to it, unlike the flu. In most years, some percentage of the population will be resistant to flu infection and less likely to become severely ill from that year's flu strains because they previously had a similar strain of the flu or were vaccinated against it. That retained immunity can reduce the severity of flu symptoms. During the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic, people over age 35 generally did not get severe illness because of partial immunity, which may have been from previous infection with a similar strain. During the 1918 flu pandemic, older people appear to have been less likely to become ill and die because of past immunity.​

​

Covid-19 is more infectious and more deadly than flu. We have fewer tools and no natural immunity. And, we know much less about how to fight it. That's why it's even more important to take protective measures. Wash your hands frequently and thoroughly, avoid touching surfaces to the extent possible, cover your coughs, and stay home if you're feeling ill -- the same recommendations we give to people to avoid getting and spreading the flu. ​

​

Specifically for Covid-19, actions of universities and workplaces are closing and allowing telecommuting and distance learning make sense. Medically vulnerable people need to keep a safe distance from others. Nursing homes need to do everything possible to prevent Covid-19 from entering their doors -- either by visitors or staff. Large public gatherings need to be cancelled or radically altered; the NCAA and NBA are taking the right steps to limit contact, which will help flatten the epidemic curve and reduce the chance of a sharp spike in cases that could overwhelm health care facilities. Actions that delay cases allow us to better manage our health care resources -- which could be stretched to the breaking point if cases surge dramatically -- and give us more time to develop effective treatments to prevent the worst complications.​

​

Finally, most people who get flu or Covid-19 do well; 80 or 90% of those infected with the novel virus have mild, moderate or no symptoms. However many people die from it, this will be too many. Although the coronavirus pandemic will certainly get worse before it gets better, it will get better. And even at the worst of the coronavirus pandemic, many people (no one knows what proportion) won't get infected, and, of those who do get infected, 99 out of 100 will recover. So, it's responsible to be proactive now to limit the harms of Covid-19, but it's also good to keep in mind that this, too, will pass.​

​

By taking these actions on both a personal and societal level, we give ourselves the best chance to mitigate the impact of Covid-19. It's too late now to prevent this coronavirus from spreading in our communities, but by working together to limit and slow that spread, we can save lives.​

 

[heathpack]

Locked it down. And stopped it impressively quickly for only 80k cases out of 1.386 billion.

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

So it wasn’t “just be smart, wash your hands”? It was something more “hysterical”?