• The TUGBBS forums are completely free and open to the public and exist as the absolute best place for owners to get help and advice about their timeshares for more than 30 years!

    Join Tens of Thousands of other Owners just like you here to get any and all Timeshare questions answered 24 hours a day!
  • TUG started 30 years ago in October 1993 as a group of regular Timeshare owners just like you!

    Read about our 30th anniversary: Happy 30th Birthday TUG!
  • TUG has a YouTube Channel to produce weekly short informative videos on popular Timeshare topics!

    Free memberships for every 50 subscribers!

    Visit TUG on Youtube!
  • TUG has now saved timeshare owners more than $21,000,000 dollars just by finding us in time to rescind a new Timeshare purchase! A truly incredible milestone!

    Read more here: TUG saves owners more than $21 Million dollars
  • Sign up to get the TUG Newsletter for free!

    60,000+ subscribing owners! A weekly recap of the best Timeshare resort reviews and the most popular topics discussed by owners!
  • Our official "end my sales presentation early" T-shirts are available again! Also come with the option for a free membership extension with purchase to offset the cost!

    All T-shirt options here!
  • A few of the most common links here on the forums for newbies and guests!

Phase 1 reopening

"Roger"

TUG Review Crew
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
4,413
Reaction score
3,209
Points
598
Perhaps this is posted somewhere else, but I didn't see it. (You have to go halfway down the article to see what is suppose to open. I love surf board repair.)

Governor announces Phase 1 reopening

This is what I suspect most of you are interested in ...

"Under that plan, tourism isn’t expected to be given the OK to reopen for months."
 

PigsDad

TUG Member
Joined
Nov 1, 2006
Messages
10,072
Reaction score
7,075
Points
898
Location
Colorado and SW Florida
Resorts Owned
HGVC Elite: SeaWorld, Surf Club, Charter Club, Valdoro
This is what I suspect most of you are interested in ...

"Under that plan, tourism isn’t expected to be given the OK to reopen for months."
How long before the 1/3 of Hawaii's population that is unemployed start rioting?

Kurt
 

1Kflyerguy

TUG Review Crew: Veteran
TUG Member
Joined
Nov 20, 2012
Messages
3,429
Reaction score
1,528
Points
399
Location
San Jose, Ca
Resorts Owned
HGVC Kings Land, Elara, and Marriott Destination Club Points
How long before the 1/3 of Hawaii's population that is unemployed start rioting?

Kurt

While I can understand the Governor and Mayors desire to protect the residents, i think it will become harder and hard to maintain the lockdown and economy shuttered. As the cases drop, people will want to go back to work, get out etc.

In California our Governor had announced a what seemed to a slow and methodical reopening of the sate, but that has been accelerated as various cities, and large groups of the state population began to defy the orders.

A lock-down will only work for so long, and then you need to move onto other tools.
 

Luanne

TUG Review Crew: Expert
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
19,353
Reaction score
10,185
Points
1,198
Location
New Mexico
Resorts Owned
Maui Lea at Maui Hill
San Diego Country Estates
I don't have the charts, but from watching MSNBC today they were showing how the rate of new cases for New York is dropping, while the rest of the country is rising. They were attributing it to the states that were starting to open up. It would be interesting to see a state by state graph of what happened when they began to open back up.
 

MrockStar

TUG Review Crew
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 5, 2014
Messages
4,926
Reaction score
2,607
Points
348
Location
Detroit MI
People tasted freedom once again and are not going back.:cheer:
 

luv_maui

TUG Review Crew: Expert
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
1,371
Reaction score
905
Points
473
I don't have the charts, but from watching MSNBC today they were showing how the rate of new cases for New York is dropping, while the rest of the country is rising. They were attributing it to the states that were starting to open up. It would be interesting to see a state by state graph of what happened when they began to open back up.
See end of article for last 14 day graphic of # of cases. Hawaii looks like com8ng down.

 

Kevsdad

TUG Member
Joined
Feb 12, 2012
Messages
22
Reaction score
19
Points
213
Location
Sacramento, CA
I don't have the charts, but from watching MSNBC today they were showing how the rate of new cases for New York is dropping, while the rest of the country is rising. They were attributing it to the states that were starting to open up. It would be interesting to see a state by state graph of what happened when they began to open back up.

The number of new cases aren’t very important. Much of that is due to the increase in testing. The true indicator is hospitalizations. In California for example, our hospitalization rate has slowly decreased for a month. That’s what matters. If they tested 5 million people in California tomorrow the rate would skyrocket.
 

DannyTS

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
5,753
Reaction score
3,076
Points
348
How long before the 1/3 of Hawaii's population that is unemployed start rioting?

Kurt
Part of the problem is that many of those who make these decisions have no skin in the game. I would like this governor to take a 50% salary cut (like the Marriott executives did) until the crisis is resolved. It is unfair for 35% of the population to continue to accumulate debt while the governor is playing with the dates.
 

DannyTS

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
5,753
Reaction score
3,076
Points
348
 

PigsDad

TUG Member
Joined
Nov 1, 2006
Messages
10,072
Reaction score
7,075
Points
898
Location
Colorado and SW Florida
Resorts Owned
HGVC Elite: SeaWorld, Surf Club, Charter Club, Valdoro
The number of new cases aren’t very important. Much of that is due to the increase in testing. The true indicator is hospitalizations. In California for example, our hospitalization rate has slowly decreased for a month. That’s what matters. If they tested 5 million people in California tomorrow the rate would skyrocket.
Excellent point. And as you can see by CDC's data here is that we had a significant drop in hospitalizations starting the last week of April. Let's hope that trend continues.

Kurt
 

SmithOp

TUG Review Crew
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 17, 2010
Messages
7,609
Reaction score
3,403
Points
499
Location
Huntington Beach, CA
Resorts Owned
HGVC King's Land 2BR Premier 23.040K Points.
Part of the problem is that many of those who make these decisions have no skin in the game. I would like this governor to take a 50% salary cut (like the Marriott executives did) until the crisis is resolved. It is unfair for 35% of the population to continue to accumulate debt while the governor is playing with the dates.

You can’t compare a CEO that makes millions to a governor that makes $150k. Of course he has skin in the game, his family and friends live there, and he was elected to make these kind of decisions.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro
 

DannyTS

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
5,753
Reaction score
3,076
Points
348
at a time when the government only collects 75% of the normal revenue, if that much, why would the government employee not take a pay cut?
 

Tamaradarann

TUG Review Crew: Expert
TUG Member
Joined
Aug 20, 2006
Messages
3,368
Reaction score
1,297
Points
548
Location
Honolulu, HI
Resorts Owned
HGVC South Beach, HGVC Las Vegas, HGVC Las Vegas on the Strip, HGVC Sea World, Misner Place
Perhaps this is posted somewhere else, but I didn't see it. (You have to go halfway down the article to see what is suppose to open. I love surf board repair.)

Governor announces Phase 1 reopening

This is what I suspect most of you are interested in ...

"Under that plan, tourism isn’t expected to be given the OK to reopen for months."

I believe that Hawaii can reopen for the existing local residents. However, because the 14 day quarantine has not been followed by some of the incoming people.(which at this time is not that great a sacrific since so many things are closed) However, if things get reopened it will attract even more incoming people and even more people not following the 14 day quarantine due to the opportunity to go to many more places and particpate in many more activities. That is the major danger that can't be truly managed.
 

DannyTS

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
5,753
Reaction score
3,076
Points
348
 

DannyTS

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
5,753
Reaction score
3,076
Points
348
Hawaii has 10 million visitors a year, almost 1 million a month. Even if the number of visitors goes down by 70%, even if Hawaii requires every tourist to be tested 3 days before arriving (as they say they would do) once they open the travel restrictions it is statistically impossible for one person out of 300,000 visitors that month not to have been infected in the previous 2 days before landing there. Once you have one case in any resort you are back to square one.

Hawaii is in an impossible dilemma and probably the best evidence that the lockdown is not sustainable in the long or even medium term unless you have the financial resources and the political will to keep it in place forever.
 

SmithOp

TUG Review Crew
TUG Member
Joined
Jun 17, 2010
Messages
7,609
Reaction score
3,403
Points
499
Location
Huntington Beach, CA
Resorts Owned
HGVC King's Land 2BR Premier 23.040K Points.
at a time when the government only collects 75% of the normal revenue, if that much, why would the government employee not take a pay cut?

Hawaii hasn’t posted April tax revenue yet, charts still show March.



Government employees pay is not tied to revenue, unlike corporate jobs. Pay is based on annual budgets. There have been times when they have to take unpaid furloughs, usually when budget approvals are delayed.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro
 

DannyTS

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
5,753
Reaction score
3,076
Points
348
Hawaii hasn’t posted April tax revenue yet, charts still show March.



Government employees pay is not tied to revenue, unlike corporate jobs. Pay is based on annual budgets. There have been times when they have to take unpaid furloughs, usually when budget approvals are delayed.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro
Every government has a budget, but some chose to be paid less during the pandemic. In these examples I included an university as well.

Halifax mayor pledges to cut $190K salary during pandemic crisis


Manitoba Premier says he’s taking a pay cut during coronavirus

New Zealand goes for 20% pay cuts amid COVID-19


UM officials taking pay cuts amid projections of up to $1B in losses from COVID-19


Michigan State executives take pay cut due to COVID-19

 
Last edited:

csodjd

TUG Member
Joined
Jul 4, 2017
Messages
2,334
Reaction score
1,986
Points
274
Location
So. California
Resorts Owned
Hilton Hawaiian Village - Lagoon Tower
Marriott Maui Ocean Club
Once you have one case in any resort you are back to square one.
That's where I disagree. First, with social distancing and appropriate mask rules, the risk of that person infecting others drops substantially. For instance, spreading out restaurants so nobody at one table is within six-seven feet of anyone at another table. No sharing golf carts with people you aren't rooming with. Managing lines and crowded tourist locations to ensure masks are worn where 6-feet cannot be managed. Possibly just closing some down that are not manageable and create high risk of spread.

Second, it then turns on the ability to trace and test those possibly exposed and quickly isolate any possible breakout. That prevents the community spread. We may never eradicate this virus entirely. 10 years from now there may still be people with the infection coming to Hawaii. But we know a LOT more now than anyone knew in Jan-Mar, and can use that knowledge to reduce the risk of spread and contain any infection.

There is going to have to be, at some point, trust placed in the public health system that they can manage an infection or two so that the 999,995 other monthly visitors can return.
 

csodjd

TUG Member
Joined
Jul 4, 2017
Messages
2,334
Reaction score
1,986
Points
274
Location
So. California
Resorts Owned
Hilton Hawaiian Village - Lagoon Tower
Marriott Maui Ocean Club
I don't have the charts, but from watching MSNBC today they were showing how the rate of new cases for New York is dropping, while the rest of the country is rising. They were attributing it to the states that were starting to open up. It would be interesting to see a state by state graph of what happened when they began to open back up.
As indicated, "new cases" is not a good measure because of the testing aspect. But hospitalizations and deaths are helpful measures. What I find very concerning is that death rates lag 2-3 weeks behind new infections, we see that NY and NJ deaths have come WAY down, but the National deaths is near its peak. That means much of the rest of the country is experiencing increasing death rates. And, again, as a lagging indicator, it means the number of new infections has actually been growing substantially in those areas for the past 3 weeks. These are in many cases the same areas that felt they were "safe" because numbers were low, and probably were not taking good mitigation steps.
 

artringwald

TUG Review Crew
TUG Member
Joined
Apr 22, 2011
Messages
4,737
Reaction score
3,679
Points
448
Location
Oakdale, MN
Resorts Owned
DRI: The Point at Poipu, 3 deeded weeks, 1 of which is in The Club.
The number of new cases aren’t very important. Much of that is due to the increase in testing. The true indicator is hospitalizations. In California for example, our hospitalization rate has slowly decreased for a month. That’s what matters. If they tested 5 million people in California tomorrow the rate would skyrocket.
I agree that hospitalization is the true indicator. Avoiding overloading the medical facilities is the #1 reason for flattening the curve. I've been tracking MN's COVID hospitalization. Restrictions are being relaxed, and hospitalization cases are increasing. Fortunately for Hawaii, the number of new cases today was down to 0.

1588982468569.png
 

csodjd

TUG Member
Joined
Jul 4, 2017
Messages
2,334
Reaction score
1,986
Points
274
Location
So. California
Resorts Owned
Hilton Hawaiian Village - Lagoon Tower
Marriott Maui Ocean Club
I agree that hospitalization is the true indicator. Avoiding overloading the medical facilities is the #1 reason for flattening the curve. I've been tracking MN's COVID hospitalization. Restrictions are being relaxed, and hospitalization cases are increasing. Fortunately for Hawaii, the number of new cases today was down to 0.

View attachment 20358
Just as a bit of mud in the water, keep in mind that in some hospitals, or systems, admissions from the ER are a politically/money influenced phenomena. Many ER's are manned by ER physicians that have no association with the hospital. They work for a large ER group that contracts with the hospital system to provide the ER doctors. But it is essential that, if the ER group wants to keep its lucrative contract, that it admit patients. I represent some payor groups and we've had some issues with unnecessary admissions. Not sure if COVID has fallen into that at all, but it's always out there. (In defense of the ER docs vis a vi COVID, one of the primary acknowledged reasons for admission is pulmonary insufficiency. Can't send those patients home.)
 

PigsDad

TUG Member
Joined
Nov 1, 2006
Messages
10,072
Reaction score
7,075
Points
898
Location
Colorado and SW Florida
Resorts Owned
HGVC Elite: SeaWorld, Surf Club, Charter Club, Valdoro
I agree that hospitalization is the true indicator. Avoiding overloading the medical facilities is the #1 reason for flattening the curve. I've been tracking MN's COVID hospitalization. Restrictions are being relaxed, and hospitalization cases are increasing. Fortunately for Hawaii, the number of new cases today was down to 0.
Thanks for the graph. Too bad MN is still on the upward track. Here is the graph for Colorado. We have been on a downward track for a couple of weeks now.
COcv.png


Kurt
 
Top