Phase 1 reopening

["Roger"]

Perhaps this is posted somewhere else, but I didn't see it. (You have to go halfway down the article to see what is suppose to open. I love surf board repair.)

Governor announces Phase 1 reopening

This is what I suspect most of you are interested in ...

"Under that plan, tourism isn’t expected to be given the OK to reopen for months."​

 

[PigsDad]

This is what I suspect most of you are interested in ...

"Under that plan, tourism isn’t expected to be given the OK to reopen for months."​

How long before the 1/3 of Hawaii's population that is unemployed start rioting?

Kurt

 

[1Kflyerguy]

How long before the 1/3 of Hawaii's population that is unemployed start rioting?

Kurt

While I can understand the Governor and Mayors desire to protect the residents, i think it will become harder and hard to maintain the lockdown and economy shuttered. As the cases drop, people will want to go back to work, get out etc.

In California our Governor had announced a what seemed to a slow and methodical reopening of the sate, but that has been accelerated as various cities, and large groups of the state population began to defy the orders.

A lock-down will only work for so long, and then you need to move onto other tools.

 

[Luanne]

I don't have the charts, but from watching MSNBC today they were showing how the rate of new cases for New York is dropping, while the rest of the country is rising. They were attributing it to the states that were starting to open up. It would be interesting to see a state by state graph of what happened when they began to open back up.

 

[MrockStar]

People tasted freedom once again and are not going back.

 

[luv_maui]

I don't have the charts, but from watching MSNBC today they were showing how the rate of new cases for New York is dropping, while the rest of the country is rising. They were attributing it to the states that were starting to open up. It would be interesting to see a state by state graph of what happened when they began to open back up.

See end of article for last 14 day graphic of # of cases. Hawaii looks like com8ng down.

Tracking Covid-19 cases in the US

Track the spread of coronavirus in the United States with maps and updates on cases and deaths.

www.cnn.com

 

[Kevsdad]

I don't have the charts, but from watching MSNBC today they were showing how the rate of new cases for New York is dropping, while the rest of the country is rising. They were attributing it to the states that were starting to open up. It would be interesting to see a state by state graph of what happened when they began to open back up.

The number of new cases aren’t very important. Much of that is due to the increase in testing. The true indicator is hospitalizations. In California for example, our hospitalization rate has slowly decreased for a month. That’s what matters. If they tested 5 million people in California tomorrow the rate would skyrocket.

 

[DannyTS]

How long before the 1/3 of Hawaii's population that is unemployed start rioting?

Kurt

Part of the problem is that many of those who make these decisions have no skin in the game. I would like this governor to take a 50% salary cut (like the Marriott executives did) until the crisis is resolved. It is unfair for 35% of the population to continue to accumulate debt while the governor is playing with the dates.

 

[DannyTS]

 

[PigsDad]

The number of new cases aren’t very important. Much of that is due to the increase in testing. The true indicator is hospitalizations. In California for example, our hospitalization rate has slowly decreased for a month. That’s what matters. If they tested 5 million people in California tomorrow the rate would skyrocket.

Excellent point. And as you can see by CDC's data here is that we had a significant drop in hospitalizations starting the last week of April. Let's hope that trend continues.

Kurt

 

[SmithOp]

Part of the problem is that many of those who make these decisions have no skin in the game. I would like this governor to take a 50% salary cut (like the Marriott executives did) until the crisis is resolved. It is unfair for 35% of the population to continue to accumulate debt while the governor is playing with the dates.

You can’t compare a CEO that makes millions to a governor that makes $150k. Of course he has skin in the game, his family and friends live there, and he was elected to make these kind of decisions.


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[DannyTS]

at a time when the government only collects 75% of the normal revenue, if that much, why would the government employee not take a pay cut?

 

[Tamaradarann]

Perhaps this is posted somewhere else, but I didn't see it. (You have to go halfway down the article to see what is suppose to open. I love surf board repair.)

Governor announces Phase 1 reopening

This is what I suspect most of you are interested in ...

"Under that plan, tourism isn’t expected to be given the OK to reopen for months."​

I believe that Hawaii can reopen for the existing local residents. However, because the 14 day quarantine has not been followed by some of the incoming people.(which at this time is not that great a sacrific since so many things are closed) However, if things get reopened it will attract even more incoming people and even more people not following the 14 day quarantine due to the opportunity to go to many more places and particpate in many more activities. That is the major danger that can't be truly managed.

 

[DannyTS]

 

[DannyTS]

Hawaii has 10 million visitors a year, almost 1 million a month. Even if the number of visitors goes down by 70%, even if Hawaii requires every tourist to be tested 3 days before arriving (as they say they would do) once they open the travel restrictions it is statistically impossible for one person out of 300,000 visitors that month not to have been infected in the previous 2 days before landing there. Once you have one case in any resort you are back to square one.

Hawaii is in an impossible dilemma and probably the best evidence that the lockdown is not sustainable in the long or even medium term unless you have the financial resources and the political will to keep it in place forever.

 

[SmithOp]

at a time when the government only collects 75% of the normal revenue, if that much, why would the government employee not take a pay cut?

Hawaii hasn’t posted April tax revenue yet, charts still show March.

Tax Dashboard

Click on chart to enlarge

dbedt.hawaii.gov

Government employees pay is not tied to revenue, unlike corporate jobs. Pay is based on annual budgets. There have been times when they have to take unpaid furloughs, usually when budget approvals are delayed.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

 

[DannyTS]

Hawaii hasn’t posted April tax revenue yet, charts still show March.

Tax Dashboard

Click on chart to enlarge

dbedt.hawaii.gov

Government employees pay is not tied to revenue, unlike corporate jobs. Pay is based on annual budgets. There have been times when they have to take unpaid furloughs, usually when budget approvals are delayed.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro

Every government has a budget, but some chose to be paid less during the pandemic. In these examples I included an university as well.

Halifax mayor pledges to cut $190K salary during pandemic crisis

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/halifax-mayor-taking-cut-to-190k-salary-during-pandemic-1.5534267

Manitoba Premier says he’s taking a pay cut during coronavirus

Manitoba Premier says he’s taking a pay cut during coronavirus - Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca

Manitoba Premier Brian Pallister is taking a pay reduction as he pushes for cuts in the public sector.

globalnews.ca

New Zealand goes for 20% pay cuts amid COVID-19

New Zealand goes for 20% pay cuts amid COVID-19

Premier Ardern disagrees with US president over WHO, says country taking health body’s advice seriously - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

UM officials taking pay cuts amid projections of up to $1B in losses from COVID-19

UM officials taking pay cuts amid projections of up to $1B in losses from COVID-19

The president, along with the chancellors of the UM-Dearborn and UM-Flint campuses, will reduce monthly salaries by 10% through the end of the year

www.detroitnews.com

Michigan State executives take pay cut due to COVID-19

Michigan State executives take pay cut due to COVID-19 - The State News

MSU executives take a reduced pay as a part of the financial consequences caused by the novel coronavirus.

statenews.com

 

[csodjd]

Once you have one case in any resort you are back to square one.

That's where I disagree. First, with social distancing and appropriate mask rules, the risk of that person infecting others drops substantially. For instance, spreading out restaurants so nobody at one table is within six-seven feet of anyone at another table. No sharing golf carts with people you aren't rooming with. Managing lines and crowded tourist locations to ensure masks are worn where 6-feet cannot be managed. Possibly just closing some down that are not manageable and create high risk of spread.

Second, it then turns on the ability to trace and test those possibly exposed and quickly isolate any possible breakout. That prevents the community spread. We may never eradicate this virus entirely. 10 years from now there may still be people with the infection coming to Hawaii. But we know a LOT more now than anyone knew in Jan-Mar, and can use that knowledge to reduce the risk of spread and contain any infection.

There is going to have to be, at some point, trust placed in the public health system that they can manage an infection or two so that the 999,995 other monthly visitors can return.

 

[csodjd]

I don't have the charts, but from watching MSNBC today they were showing how the rate of new cases for New York is dropping, while the rest of the country is rising. They were attributing it to the states that were starting to open up. It would be interesting to see a state by state graph of what happened when they began to open back up.

As indicated, "new cases" is not a good measure because of the testing aspect. But hospitalizations and deaths are helpful measures. What I find very concerning is that death rates lag 2-3 weeks behind new infections, we see that NY and NJ deaths have come WAY down, but the National deaths is near its peak. That means much of the rest of the country is experiencing increasing death rates. And, again, as a lagging indicator, it means the number of new infections has actually been growing substantially in those areas for the past 3 weeks. These are in many cases the same areas that felt they were "safe" because numbers were low, and probably were not taking good mitigation steps.

 

[artringwald]

The number of new cases aren’t very important. Much of that is due to the increase in testing. The true indicator is hospitalizations. In California for example, our hospitalization rate has slowly decreased for a month. That’s what matters. If they tested 5 million people in California tomorrow the rate would skyrocket.

I agree that hospitalization is the true indicator. Avoiding overloading the medical facilities is the #1 reason for flattening the curve. I've been tracking MN's COVID hospitalization. Restrictions are being relaxed, and hospitalization cases are increasing. Fortunately for Hawaii, the number of new cases today was down to 0.

 

[csodjd]

I agree that hospitalization is the true indicator. Avoiding overloading the medical facilities is the #1 reason for flattening the curve. I've been tracking MN's COVID hospitalization. Restrictions are being relaxed, and hospitalization cases are increasing. Fortunately for Hawaii, the number of new cases today was down to 0.

View attachment 20358

Just as a bit of mud in the water, keep in mind that in some hospitals, or systems, admissions from the ER are a politically/money influenced phenomena. Many ER's are manned by ER physicians that have no association with the hospital. They work for a large ER group that contracts with the hospital system to provide the ER doctors. But it is essential that, if the ER group wants to keep its lucrative contract, that it admit patients. I represent some payor groups and we've had some issues with unnecessary admissions. Not sure if COVID has fallen into that at all, but it's always out there. (In defense of the ER docs vis a vi COVID, one of the primary acknowledged reasons for admission is pulmonary insufficiency. Can't send those patients home.)

 

[PigsDad]

I agree that hospitalization is the true indicator. Avoiding overloading the medical facilities is the #1 reason for flattening the curve. I've been tracking MN's COVID hospitalization. Restrictions are being relaxed, and hospitalization cases are increasing. Fortunately for Hawaii, the number of new cases today was down to 0.

Thanks for the graph. Too bad MN is still on the upward track. Here is the graph for Colorado. We have been on a downward track for a couple of weeks now.

Kurt