OLD/Closed General Discussion Thread: C-19/Hawaii. Will Hawaii re-open Oct. 15th? (+ NEW POLL)

[HGVC Lover]

This is not encouraging news. People waited hours in line at the Maui and Big Island airports to get screened. And at Honolulu, they left passengers on the plane to prevent congestion in lines to be screened. All of those people queued up in line looks like risk even with masks on. The article comments that too many flights are arriving too close together in time.

Visitors face long lines, long wait times at airports on first day of pre-travel testing program

For some visitors, their Hawaiian vacation got off to a rocky start, having to wait hours in line before being able to exit the airport quarantine free.

www.khon2.com

West Hawaii Today reported on Thursday that people waited 4.5 hours (said it was not well thought through) to get through the second screening test and many were hungry and thirsty because they did not realize that no food or drinks would be served on their flights.....maybe they can get it down to a couple of hours before you get out of KOA once you land.....

 

[Tamaradarann]

Tourism has never been the cause of high infections there, community spread has been the issue brought on by large beach gatherings, multi-family housing, etc. It has been particularly high in the Pacific Islander communities.

Good then there is nothing to worry about with Hawaii Opening Up to tourists whether they are tested before boarding, tested after arrival, not tested at all, or violating quarantining. I am happy to hear that the fear that the local people have of tourists returning is not warranted.

 

[csodjd]

Here is the latest data from Hawaii. It reflects an overall positivity rate of 2.5% and a 7-day new case rate of 80. This is essentially the baseline as tourists arrive. According to the Lt. Gov. they are looking to keep that new case rate below 150.

 

[csodjd]

3-5% infection rate? That cannot be true, otherwise 10-15 million people would currently have Covid in the US

In some areas it is currently above 20%. The state of California is currently reporting a 2.6% 7-day positivity rate. LA County is reporting a 3.1% 7-day moving average. You can verify any of these numbers yourself quite easily so I'm not posting links. But here is a state by state listing updated as of yesterday. This, of course, reflects the percentage of people that GOT TESTED and tested positive. It is not necessarily community surveillance numbers. So it probably skews toward positives since symptomatic and exposed people are more likely to get tested.

States ranked by COVID-19 test positivity rates

Here are the rates of positive COVID-19 tests in each state, along with the number of new cases most recently reported and number of tests conducted per 1,000 people.

www.beckershospitalreview.com

 

[csodjd]

There were approximately 1000 that flew in without being tested. Using csodjd 3-5% infection rate that means that there are 30-50 people on the planes on Thursday that could have infected others on the plane or in the airport or on their way to quarantine. How many of those will violate quarantine? How many of those that got infected will infect others and spread the virus around?

The recently released DOD study showed that if you sit on an airplane next to an infected person, and both of you wear masks, you'll need to sit together for 54 years to have enough viral load to get sick. https://www.stripes.com/news/us/dod...ane-with-people-wearing-masks-is-low-1.648730

Violating quarantine does not get anyone sick by itself. You can be a raging infection glowing COVID-red and be out and about and not get anyone sick IF you wear a mask, stay socially distant, and stay out of small poorly spaces with poorly circulated air.

So the answer to your (rhetorical) question is probably, a few, but not many. Again, assume 50 arrive daily with infection. How many will violate quarantine? Let's say 20%. Well, now we are down to 10 people in the community. Of those 10, how many will irresponsibly not wear a mask and not socially distant? Maybe a few. What are the chances YOU will have a sustained encounter with one of those people sufficient to transfer the virus if YOU have a mask on and YOU socially distant? Probably about the same as getting hit by lightning.

Healthy fear and being careful are warranted. Paranoia or irrational fear, well, the airplane can crash too. There is ALWAYS risk. We know enough now about COVID that we can manage that risk by our OWN conduct in most cases.

 

[jabberwocky]

In some areas it is currently above 20%. The state of California is currently reporting a 2.6% 7-day positivity rate. LA County is reporting a 3.1% 7-day moving average. You can verify any of these numbers yourself quite easily so I'm not posting links. But here is a state by state listing updated as of yesterday. This, of course, reflects the percentage of people that GOT TESTED and tested positive. It is not necessarily community surveillance numbers. So it probably skews toward positives since symptomatic and exposed people are more likely to get tested.

You can’t use positivity rate to generalize to the whole population. If that is what you are basing the 3-5% estimate on, then you’ll need to try again, because we don’t know the composition of the sample. It isn’t random sample selection.

People a reason to have to get a test and if you have any sort of half-decent contact tracing the positivity rate will be higher.

 

[csodjd]

You can’t use positivity rate to generalize to the whole population. If that is what you are basing the 3-5% estimate on, then you’ll need to try again, because we don’t know the composition of the sample. It isn’t random sample selection.

People a reason to have to get a test and if you have any sort of half-decent contact tracing the positivity rate will be higher.

Yes, that's what I stated. It is not surveillance data and it is skewed because symptomatic and exposed people are more likely to be tested. But for purposes of considering RISK of going to Hawaii, it represents a fair worst-case starting point. The real positivity rate is likely lower representing even less risk. In addition, since those going to Hawaii don't represent a cross-section of the population and likely largely excludes those at highest risk of testing positive (college students, factory workers, etc.) that too reduces risk.

My point is that, if you use DATA and not emotion, even using that 3-5% number results in near-zero risk.

 

[amy241]

Good then there is nothing to worry about with Hawaii Opening Up to tourists whether they are tested before boarding, tested after arrival, not tested at all, or violating quarantining. I am happy to hear that the fear that the local people have of tourists returning is not warranted.

There is no call for sarcasm or rudeness. I qualified my comments by stating “high“ infection rates. I have found your views to be extreme with your suggestion that all tourists be marched off to a quarantine facility under armed guard. I am glad viewpoints such as this are not well represented.

 

[DeniseM]

Since everyone is totally speculating at this point, how about keeping the tone friendly and waiting to see what actually happens?


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[HGVC Lover]

There is no call for sarcasm or rudeness. I qualified my comments by stating “high’ infection rates.I have found your views to be extreme with your suggestion that all tourists be marched off to a quarantine facility under armed guard. I am glad viewpoints such as this arenot well represented.

Completely agree........

 

[csodjd]

West Hawaii Today reported on Thursday that people waited 4.5 hours (said it was not well thought through) to get through the second screening test and many were hungry and thirsty because they did not realize that no food or drinks would be served on their flights.....maybe they can get it down to a couple of hours before you get out of KOA once you land.....

A friend of mine arrived in Maui yesterday from Los Angeles on Hawaiian. She said it took two hours to get through everything and on their way, that it was smooth and not a problem.

 

[HGVC Lover]

A friend of mine arrived in Maui yesterday from Los Angeles on Hawaiian. She said it took two hours to get through everything and on their way, that it was smooth and not a problem.

True....wait times were long in Maui too but the big difference between KOA and Maui it that at the Maui airport people are in an air-conditioned space and at KOA it is open air. Also, at Maui the 2 hours was just for verification of pre-travel test while at KOA arriving passengers had to verify pre-test, take a second test and then wait for results until finally people were allowed to leave the airport at 8:00 PM Thursday without verification of their second test after taking it.

https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020...rt-entry-process-especially-on-hawaii-island/

 

[csodjd]

Here's an interesting look at who arrived yesterday. This doesn't include inter-island flights/passengers, just those coming from mainland US. According to the Lt. Gov., about 1400 of those had to quarantine, with about 300-400 of those 1400 being because they didn't have their test results yet. (Not clear to me where the 502 Crew fits into that, not tested and not quarantined?)

 

[PigsDad]

3-5% infection rate? That cannot be true, otherwise 10-15 million people would currently have Covid in the US

Correct. This is a commonly misused statistic. The infection rates that are published are the rate of positive tests, not the rate of Covid-infected people in the general population. So the population for this statistic is only those who have been tested, and in general, the majority of those taking tests are those who have symptoms or know they were exposed. Those taking tests that don't have symptoms, such as random testing, travelers, etc. are a much smaller portion.

Kurt

 

[Tamaradarann]

There is no call for sarcasm or rudeness. I qualified my comments by stating “high“ infection rates. I have found your views to be extreme with your suggestion that all tourists be marched off to a quarantine facility under armed guard. I am glad viewpoints such as this are not well represented.

I have NEVER suggested that ALL tourists be marched off to a quartantine facility under armed guard. What I have suggested is that those who chose NOT TO GET TESTED before boarding, and therefore, must quarantine, be escorted to a quatantine facility under armed guard. There were 2 reasons for that. One was to make sure that anyone who did come to Hawaii untested MUST stay in quarantine and not violate quarantine like has happened. Two was to strongly urge, by making coming here untested very uncomfortable, that everyone get tested first before boarding.

While there was certainly a degree of sarcasm in my comment it was not rude. Since the opening of Hawaii to tourists is the main issue that is on the minds of most of those on this thread right now as well as in the minds of those that live in Hawaii I was trying to refocus the discussion to the impact of the return of tourists on the number of infected rather than diverting the discussion to the cause of high infection rates perhaps being something that did not have to do with tourists returning.

 

[csodjd]

Correct. This is a commonly misused statistic. The infection rates that are published are the rate of positive tests, not the rate of Covid-infected people in the general population. So the population for this statistic is only those who have been tested, and in general, the majority of those taking tests are those who have symptoms or know they were exposed. Those taking tests that don't have symptoms, such as random testing, travelers, etc. are a much smaller portion.

Kurt

Except where surveillance testing is occurring. Many universities, for instance, and employers, are engaging in surveillance testing.

 

[csodjd]

I have NEVER suggested that ALL tourists be marched off to a quartantine facility under armed guard. What I have suggested is that those who chose NOT TO GET TESTED before boarding, and therefore, must quarantine, be escorted to a quatantine facility under armed guard. There were 2 reasons for that. One was to make sure that anyone who did come to Hawaii untested MUST stay in quarantine and not violate quarantine like has happened. Two was to strongly urge, by making coming here untested very uncomfortable, that everyone get tested first before boarding.

While there was certainly a degree of sarcasm in my comment it was not rude. Since the opening of Hawaii to tourists is the main issue that is on the minds of most of those on this thread right now as well as in the minds of those that live in Hawaii I was trying to refocus the discussion to the impact of the return of tourists on the number of infected rather than diverting the discussion to the cause of high infection rates perhaps being something that did not have to do with tourists returning.

Is there any evidence at all that people breaking quarantine have been responsible for a material rise in COVID incidence in Hawaii? Since breaking quarantine doesn't actually cause any illness at all, before getting all bent out of shape that it may and does occur, it's helpful to know if it has had an adverse impact at all.

 

[DannyTS]

Except where surveillance testing is occurring. Many universities, for instance, and employers, are engaging in surveillance testing.

And what are the results for the surveillance testing? The positives cannot possibly be 3-5% of the general population at any given moment.

 

[echino]

What I have suggested is that those who chose NOT TO GET TESTED before boarding, and therefore, must quarantine, be escorted to a quatantine facility under armed guard.

This is fascism.

 

[csodjd]

And what are the results for the surveillance testing? The positives cannot possibly be 3-5% of the general population at any given moment.

It obviously varies considerably. Here is one example, this is from students at Georgia Tech:

So we see about a 1% positivity among this group of college students.

I suspect it would vary considerably today between, say, Florida or Wisconsin, and Hawaii or New York.

 

[csodjd]

It obviously varies considerably. Here is one example, this is from students at Georgia Tech:

View attachment 27633

So we see about a 1% positivity among this group of college students.

I suspect it would vary considerably today between, say, Florida or Wisconsin, and Hawaii or New York.

Here is another. This is from Washington DC:

• Total Number of DC Residents Tested: 239,835*
• Total Positives: 16,334

That's about a 0.7% rate.

 

[DannyTS]

It would certainly vary by state. I would expect the rate of the general population to be even lower because the students are more in close contact with other students than most people.

 

[DannyTS]

Here is another. This is from Washington DC:

• Total Number of DC Residents Tested: 239,835*
• Total Positives: 16,334

That's about a 0.7% rate.

If you combine this information with the NYT article that about 90% of the positives should be actually negative (damaged virus that is not contagious), it probably gives a rate for the students that are contagious of less than 1/1000

 

[csodjd]

It would certainly vary by state. I would expect the rate of the general population to be even lower because the students are more in close contact with other students than most people.

The point is that the emotional fear of opening tourism is quite distinct from the data-driven reality. The proof will be in the data, over the next 30 days or so. Provided the precautionary rules are largely complied with, I do not expect to see a surge of cases as a result of tourism rebooting.

 

[csodjd]

If you combine this information with the NYT article that about 90% of the positives should be actually negative (damaged virus that is not contagious), it probably gives a rate for the students that are contagious of less than 1/1000

I'm not aware of any reliable data that 90% of positives are actually negative. But clinical tests must always be evaluated along with clinical findings and patient history. I would view a positive test result very differently coming from someone that said they had COVID 45 days ago, someone that said they've never had it and feel fine, but both their parents are currently sick from it, and very different again from someone that said they have a fever, feel lousy and have a cough. Medicine doesn't live in a vacuum.

So looking back to the issue, Hawaii travel, you have a sub-set of the population that itself has lower risk, you have pre-travel testing which will find many asymptomatic cases, but not all. You have masks and distancing, which will greatly reduce transmission from those that ARE infectious. So, will travel result in uncontrolled community spread? We can surmise now, probably not, but will know for sure in a month or so.