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OLD/Closed General Discussion Thread: C-19/Hawaii. Will Hawaii re-open Oct. 15th? (+ NEW POLL)

When do you think Hawaii will re-open? (End 14 day quarantine.)


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Tamaradarann

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Except that locals are the one that are spreading it now on both the big island and Oahu. So even if tourists are negative then it doesn't stop asymptomatic locals who arent being tested from spreading it-and as such the lt governor is pushing for a state wide mask requirement subject to fine.

What i also dont understand fully is what happens to tourists with 2nd test that tests positive?

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That is a good questions but for me it begs a further question. What happens to all those that have been in contact with that tourist that tests positive; all the passengers and crew?
 

ljmiii

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What I also don't understand fully is what happens to tourists with 2nd test that tests positive?
The article says that if the quick test is positive they require you take a PCR test and then quarantine until they get the results (later that day or overnight).

No idea if a positive result on the PCR test requires further quarantine or a return to the mainland. Or what happens if only one person in a family has a positive PCR test. Or if they let you pick up a rental car, take an Uber, or drive you to your place of quarantine. Or many other details.
 
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klpca

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That is a good questions but for me it begs a further question. What happens to all those that have been in contact with that tourist that tests positive; all the passengers and crew?
Not much unless people aren't wearing masks. It's not a perfect solution but it's the best we have until we get a vaccine. Actually I, as a passenger, am more concerned about the crew who haven't been tested than the other passengers who were tested before they got on the plane. But thats a risk that I have chosen to accept.
 

ljmiii

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That is a good questions but for me it begs a further question. What happens to all those that have been in contact with that tourist that tests positive; all the passengers and crew?
Great question. CovidActNow estimates that Hawaii has only about 16% of the COVID tracers that they need to track positives and notify those with whom they've come into contact.

 

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there is a Ko olina controversy - the resort is saying Lagoon 1 -3 will be for tourist, Lagoon 4 for locals and residents of the resort. The city has cited Ko olina for not opening up public parking ... the residents in the resort aren’t happy because they have had access to the lagoons now they will be in 4 with other locals ... I will be a local and staying at the resort ... so I am going to cross contaminate everyone and everything ... with the aloha spirit
 

klpca

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there is a Ko olina controversy - the resort is saying Lagoon 1 -3 will be for tourist, Lagoon 4 for locals and residents of the resort. The city has cited Ko olina for not opening up public parking ... the residents in the resort aren’t happy because they have had access to the lagoons now they will be in 4 with other locals ... I will be a local and staying at the resort ... so I am going to cross contaminate everyone and everything ... with the aloha spirit
When we opened up for tourists I was honestly pretty uncomfortable. We opened up right as Arizona had their big outbreak and when the city was full of AZ plates and lots of folks weren't wearing masks it was frustrating as we wanted to open up more businesses and couldn't afford to go backwards in our case numbers. But it seems like between having most people wear masks plus social distancing, we've continued to make progress. Other counties in the state haven't fared as well, so we are frequently a tourist destination since our numbers are good. It doesn't bother me quite as much now as it did in June. It will be an adjustment for everyone to see tourists. At least yours have been tested. We get anyone who can drive here and there's nothing that we can do about it.
 

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Why? You can be infected on the flight, at HNL, at KOA or ITO, or afterward on the Big Island. Masks are going to be with us in public settings until we have widespread distribution and administration of an effective COVID vaccine.
You have to wear a mask on the flight, so that's not an issue. Plus, you've not had that 2nd test yet, so the risk of false negative is still lingering. The ONLY reason for a 2nd test requirement at the airport upon arrival is to catch the false negatives (that primarily arise from being tested too soon after exposure). With two tests 3 or so days apart, there is pretty small risk you're actually infected. Even the CDC says, for a person WITH COVID, once they have two negative tests 24 hours apart they aren't contagious anymore.

My point is that the 2nd test adds almost nothing if masks and other precautions are in place and used. Almost nothing except creating a strong disincentive to go there.
 

csodjd

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What i also dont understand fully is what happens to tourists with 2nd test that tests positive?
I believe they said the test would be repeated with a NAAT/PCR test and you'd have to quarantine until that comes back (couple days). If it is negative you're good to go. If not, quarantine.

Recall that the 2nd test is not NAAT, it is antigen. Here is what Harvard says about antigen tests:

What about accuracy? The reported rate of false negative results is as high as 50%, which is why antigen tests are not favored by the FDA as a single test for active infection. However, the FDA recently provided emergency use authorization for a more accurate antigen test. Because antigen testing is quicker, less expensive, and requires less complex technology to perform than molecular testing, some experts recommend repeated antigen testing as a reasonable strategy. According to one test manufacturer, the false positive rate of antigen testing is near zero. So, the recent experience of Ohio Governor Mike DeWine, who apparently had a false-positive result from an antigen test, is rare.

 

csodjd

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That is a good questions but for me it begs a further question. What happens to all those that have been in contact with that tourist that tests positive; all the passengers and crew?
They only contact trace when you've had extended or close exposure. Certainly the person you're sitting next to. But the crew has only brief passing exposure.

Keep in mind, however, that flights to Hawaii will be safer than flights almost anywhere else. Few things will be 100% COVID safe, perhaps for years, or ever. Perhaps the treatment protocol that appears to have worked for Trump will become a mainstay, and even a bad COVID situation will be treatable. That's really going to be necessary, because a vaccine in the best of worlds is not the complete solution. You'll still have a risk of getting COVID, albeit a lower risk. I don't see the Holy Grail as a vaccine, I see it as an effective treatment.
 

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I believe they said the test would be repeated with a NAAT/PCR test and you'd have to quarantine until that comes back (couple days). If it is negative you're good to go. If not, quarantine.

Recall that the 2nd test is not NAAT, it is antigen. Here is what Harvard says about antigen tests:

What about accuracy? The reported rate of false negative results is as high as 50%, which is why antigen tests are not favored by the FDA as a single test for active infection. However, the FDA recently provided emergency use authorization for a more accurate antigen test. Because antigen testing is quicker, less expensive, and requires less complex technology to perform than molecular testing, some experts recommend repeated antigen testing as a reasonable strategy. According to one test manufacturer, the false positive rate of antigen testing is near zero. So, the recent experience of Ohio Governor Mike DeWine, who apparently had a false-positive result from an antigen test, is rare.

I guess my point is is there a plan to put people who are positive in a designated location? I live here in hawaii and im not hearing of any such plan. A 2nd test accurate or in accurate does nothing wo a plan.

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ljmiii

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Keep in mind, however, that flights to Hawaii will be safer than flights almost anywhere else...
I don't think that's true. Prolonged exposure in a confined space is COVID's preferred breeding ground and there are no domestic flights more prolonged than those from the East Coast to Hawaii - BOS to HNL is *the* longest domestic flight. And there are certain aircraft facilities you can't avoid using on a 12 hour flight.

If you mean people travelling to Hawaii are likely to be from places that have COVID better contained...maybe? I don't want to be on a flight to/from Brazil...but other than that the US is pretty solidly in 2nd place. And states that only a few weeks ago were hot spots (like AZ and TX) are doing much better while other states (like ND and WI) are doing far worse. Who knows what states will have COVID contained in Q1 and Q2 of 2021?

Few things will be 100% COVID safe...
Of that there is little doubt...though there is always the chance that SARS-CoV-2 will follow SARS-CoV-1 into oblivion after a few years.

In the meantime I expect that in public I'll wear a mask and socially distance for the foreseeable future. I expect I'll get a COVID-19 vaccine shot (or two)...followed by another more effect vaccine a few months to a year later. I expect that we will layover in CA when we fly to/from Hawaii next year.

But I desperately hope (and are planning) to visit multiple islands in 2021 after our 2020 Hawaiian vacation crashed and burned.
 

ljmiii

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I guess my point is is there a plan to put people who are positive in a designated location? I live here in hawaii and im not hearing of any such plan. A 2nd test accurate or in accurate does nothing wo a plan.
To my knowledge, they expect you to quarantine in your stated destination.

Hawaii has toyed with the idea of 'Quarantine Hotels' since April - the Hawaii Convention Center was floated as a possible location. Back then the Hawaii Attorney General Clare Connors warned the Hawaii Senate Special Committee on COVID-19 that ankle bracelets, 24 hour GPS monitoring, and guarded designated locations might be necessary to enforce the 14-day quarantine. But nothing really came of it.
 

PearlCity

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To my knowledge, they expect you to quarantine in your stated destination.

Hawaii has toyed with the idea of 'Quarantine Hotels' since April - the Hawaii Convention Center was floated as a possible location. Back then the Hawaii Attorney General Clare Connors warned the Hawaii Senate Special Committee on COVID-19 that ankle bracelets, 24 hour GPS monitoring, and guarded designated locations might be necessary to enforce the 14-day quarantine. But nothing really came of it.
Yup. And the big island had the least enforcement of all the islands. Kauai was the strictest. But what about hotels and timeshares that are now stating you cannot check in wo a negative test. Its going to be a mess.

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I don't think that's true. Prolonged exposure in a confined space is COVID's preferred breeding ground and there are no domestic flights more prolonged than those from the East Coast to Hawaii - BOS to HNL is *the* longest domestic flight. And there are certain aircraft facilities you can't avoid using on a 12 hour flight.
I don‘t care about any of that... every person on the flight will have been tested for COVID before boarding the flight. Comparing apples to apples, that makes it safer than a flight that may be full of people with active asymptomatic infections irrespective of the length of the flight. I’ll take my chances on a flight full of pre-tested passengers over one without.

Analytically, if you assume a 4% surveillance infection rate, and a 1-4% false negative rate in pre-flight NAAT testing, there may be one person per every 3-4 flights with an infection. If you assume ONLY the 4% surveillance rate (no pre-flight testing), all other things being equal, you may have about 10 infected people on each flight. I like the former more than the latter, again, irrespective of the flight length.
 

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But I desperately hope (and are planning) to visit multiple islands in 2021 after our 2020 Hawaiian vacation crashed and burned.
We’ve got trips scheduled for Jan-Feb and Mar-Apr time periods. But our real “on edge“ is a week in Ireland followed by a Viking river cruise on the Danube scheduled for June (rescheduled from Sept. 2020). So, hopefully, we’ll have some trustworthy vaccine options by ~ April, and Europe will have their act together.
 

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I don‘t care about any of that... every person on the flight will have been tested for COVID before boarding the flight. Comparing apples to apples, that makes it safer than a flight that may be full of people with active asymptomatic infections irrespective of the length of the flight. I’ll take my chances on a flight full of pre-tested passengers over one without.

Analytically, if you assume a 4% surveillance infection rate, and a 1-4% false negative rate in pre-flight NAAT testing, there may be one person per every 3-4 flights with an infection. If you assume ONLY the 4% surveillance rate (no pre-flight testing), all other things being equal, you may have about 10 infected people on each flight. I like the former more than the latter, again, irrespective of the flight length.
It would be wonderful if that was a true statement, however, the testing is not mandatory and those passengers who determine that they will not take the test and are subject to the 14 day quarantine will put everyone at risk. As stated previously, enforcement on the Big Island is almost non-existent. I think many of these people consider breaking quarantine a sport. The cluster issue at the University of Nations in Kona had the largest outbreak as they allowed students to arrive from the mainland and not quarantine resulting in a school and community outbreak. Not only did some of these students not stay at their location, a few boarded flights to Oahu to go shopping.
 

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It would be wonderful if that was a true statement, however, the testing is not mandatory and those passengers who determine that they will not take the test and are subject to the 14 day quarantine will put everyone at risk. As stated previously, enforcement on the Big Island is almost non-existent. I think many of these people consider breaking quarantine a sport. The cluster issue at the University of Nations in Kona had the largest outbreak as they allowed students to arrive from the mainland and not quarantine resulting in a school and community outbreak. Not only did some of these students not stay at their location, a few boarded flights to Oahu to go shopping.
Yup . This is 100 percent the concern of most Hawaii residents. If all passengers were required to be testes before boarding the plane there would be much less concern on our end. But its not required. And its giving those that do test a false sense of security that the flight is safe.

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The testing would be directly across from the terminal at the site of the original car rental pick up. Before the rental car pick up was moved up the road requiring a shuttle, the rental cars were picked up within the commuter parking lot. The small rental buildings still exist so my guess is that this is where the testing would take place. I would guess that you can get tested and then go back across the street to pick up your luggage since the luggage takes awhile to get to the carousel.

Sounds simple but it will be a log jam....no way they will be able to process people quickly....get ready to fly on a crammed plane....wait for luggage...go across the street and wait in the open with hundreds of others to be tested...then after doing that catch a crammed shuttle to rental cars...and then wait in line there....this Is KOA...not a major airline terminal like Singapore...IMHO it is going to take hours for most after landing....
 
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klpca

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Yup . This is 100 percent the concern of most Hawaii residents. If all passengers were required to be testes before boarding the plane there would be much less concern on our end. But its not required. And its giving those that do test a false sense of security that the flight is safe.

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Try living someplace where anyone can visit, no test, no quarantine. Then the visitors refuse to wear masks. Living in a tourist destination is not all it's cracked up to be.
 

Tamaradarann

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Yup . This is 100 percent the concern of most Hawaii residents. If all passengers were required to be testes before boarding the plane there would be much less concern on our end. But its not required. And its giving those that do test a false sense of security that the flight is safe.

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Your thought about requiring ALL passenger to be required to be tested would be great, but Hawaii as a State and not the Federal Government can't dictate that. That is why I have been advocating the publisizing and instituting a law that anyone who doesn't get tested with a negative result before the flight will be Escorted to a Guarded Quarantine Facility for the 14 days of Quarantine. No one will want to endure that so everyone will be tested before hand or not come and that is what you want.
 

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Your thought about requiring ALL passenger to be required to be tested would be great, but Hawaii as a State and not the Federal Government can't dictate that. That is why I have been advocating the publisizing and instituting a law that anyone who doesn't get tested with a negative result before the flight will be Escorted to a Guarded Quarantine Facility for the 14 days of Quarantine. No one will want to endure that so everyone will be tested before hand or not come and that is what you want.
That would probably do the trick alright. I live in a tourist destination and it is nerve-wracking watching local 'essential' businesses fill up with out-of-towners who, as stated, make a sport out of not wearing a mask (dangling below the chin appears popular). We had great #'s so Gov opened up hotels, restaurants, the borders - 2 months later we have crises level #'s. Most are from surrounding states with high C-19 #'s. Just saying there are no EASY solutions. It's going to be ongoing change for the foreseeable future. One deep breath after another is about all I can do, that and watch & wait.
 

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It would be wonderful if that was a true statement, however, the testing is not mandatory and those passengers who determine that they will not take the test and are subject to the 14 day quarantine will put everyone at risk. As stated previously, enforcement on the Big Island is almost non-existent. I think many of these people consider breaking quarantine a sport. The cluster issue at the University of Nations in Kona had the largest outbreak as they allowed students to arrive from the mainland and not quarantine resulting in a school and community outbreak. Not only did some of these students not stay at their location, a few boarded flights to Oahu to go shopping.
Yes, that is true and my comment is inaccurate to that extent. However, I don't expect many to come over and be subject to a 14-day quarantine when all the need is a test. But, beyond that, if we assume 10% of the travelers are not tested beforehand and intend to quarantine, that's about 25 on a plane, but with surveillance rates at 4%, that means if that 25 is a random sample, that's one person. But travelers to Hawaii are not a random sample. The highest risk people out there for infection, those working in low-wage jobs that can't work from home, factory workers, farm workers, etc., the workers that make up a disproportionate number of the cases, aren't really hopping on a plane to Maui at the first opening of Hawaii.

So with a pre-test requirement, I don't think travelers are going to present an existential or substantial threat to the residents. I understand the fear, but the math doesn't justify it. The residents themselves, spreading it among themselves in the community, are more of a threat.
 

csodjd

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Sounds simple but it will be a log jam....no way they will be able to process people quickly....get ready to fly on a crammed plane....wait for luggage...go across the street and wait in the open with hundreds of others to be tested...then after doing that catch a crammed shuttle to rental cars...and then wait in line there....this Is KOA...not a major airline terminal like Singapore...IMHO it is going to take hours for most after landing....
Yes, it has all the hallmarks of a cluster-**** at the airport if going to the Big Island.
 

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Here's the most up-to-date case graph for Hawaii. What seems notable to me is that July 4 was bad and resulted in a lot of cases spreading in the community. Reimposing strict rules was effective at containing the spread and bringing the case rate down, but a plateau has been reached that, for whatever reason, the state can't get under. Perhaps it's due to inadequate contact tracing, or people being uncooperative with tracing,

The Lt. Gov. has said his target is staying below 150 (14-day moving average). This shows the 7-day, but it appears the 14-day would be about the same.

Given the relative stability of the case count over the past month it should be easy to tell what impact opening to tourism will have. However, it also shows that it will be about Nov. 7-10 before it starts showing up.

1602436876213.png
 
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